Still no relief on the heating front
Heavy commodity investment still forcing prices upwards
News release
Conception Bay South, NL, April 08, 2008- Market conditions are still putting upwards pressure on petroleum commodities and that means ‘prices up’ for gasoline along with stove oils this week, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“Continued heavy investment into commodities like heating, stove oils and gasoline is putting upwards pressure on those petroleum products as a hedge against the U.S dollar. We’re also dealing with a huge drop in refiner capacity as refiners turn their attentions towards gasoline as we get out of the winter heating season. All this means that consumers here in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador will likely see increases to all petroleum pricing again this week.
What consumers can expect
“All numbers are based on twelve days data out of a possible fourteen that is used to set pricing. It appears that gasoline will see the bigger increase. Numbers there show a possible 2.8 cent a litre hike at the pumps while stove oils will only see a 3/10ths of a cent hike in price. The stove oil number may be a sign that we’re near the peak in pricing for heating oils as well as investors and refiners turn their attention to gasoline for the run-up to the summer driving season. The actual that may occur with heating and stove oils could be higher with the other days of data unavailable yet, although I don’t think those numbers will be significant to radically change things at this point.
Warning for next winter
While pricing for heating and stove oils are both expected to back off from records in short order, those same numbers have to begin to show a substantive drop between now and the fall if we are to avoid any problems with consumers keeping themselves warm next winter. Right now, heating and stove oil pricing is a record 28 cents a litre higher than last year while gasoline is roughly 7 cents a litre higher for the same timeframe. I would advise government now rather than later, to get rebate and retrofit programs ready to catch those who will need it, and that could be everybody next year if pricing does not fall back to more affordable levels between now and the fall. A rebate of $300 to consumers just will not cut it next time if pricing does not decline.
Time for pressure on the federal government
While the provincial government came through with a rebate program this year, the federal government got off scott-free in aid to consumers of heating products. Why? It is now time for both governments to get together and remove all the taxation components on all forms of heat in this country. Both levels of government are making astronomical amounts of revenue on oil royalties and that should be returned to the Canadian consumer. The pressures put on all related heating commodities is complicated that much more by a tax on a necessity in this country and so far, that pricing outlook may be a bleak one for heating, stove oils and natural gas users next winter. The simple removal of all forms of taxation on all forms of heat would go a long way to providing some relief to consumers.
Early summer gasoline outlook
Market investors and refiners have turned their attention to gasoline as the heating oil season comes to an end. Continued investment in commodities ahead of a dropping U.S dollar, may be enough to keep the pressure up on pricing but our models are still showing a “market reluctance” to drive up pricing to consumers. Recession fears are absorbing some of the upwards pressures right now and, I don’t believe that consumers are getting hit with as big of increases as they could possibly be because of that. Bad economic news has resulted in a fear in the markets that energy could be hit sooner than other commodities like foodstuffs. Bearing that thought in mind, it appears that while we may experience some increases heading into the summer, they will not be as great as the $1.50 a litre predicted by some industry analysts out there. Our model still shows a minimum to maximum possible price of $1.22 to $1.37 at the summer peak in July and, even those numbers show the volatility of the markets. Just the difference between last year and this years spot petroleum numbers shows a $1.30 a litre at the pumps is “attainable” at this point.
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Expect no big price changes this week
Contentious gasoline season starts
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, March 25, 2008 – “Don’t expect to see any large changes to petroleum pricing this week in spite of the drop in crude oil pricing”, that’s from George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“Five out of seven days show a slight decrease of 2/10ths of a cent for heating and stove oils, while gasoline shows only a 2/10ths of a cent increase in pricing over twelve days. Remember that heating-stove oils faced interruption last week and that’s why those numbers are for five days of data.
“While oil traded lower on some disturbing economic news, oil’s related commodities still traded at near record levels. Pricing for heating, stove oils and gasoline all remained high with only slight fluctuations through the last week. Refiner capacity dropped back to a low of below 84% which is a sign that refiners have turned attention to shutdowns for maintenance and the switch to gasoline. Capacity has been measured as being very low in spite of the consumer need for refined product this last winter and it’s almost as if there was a ‘purpose’ to keeping refining ability low.
“It appears that heating-stove oils are starting to lose their focus in the markets as numbers started dropping on the New York Mercantile Exchange this week but, unfortunately, I don’t think it has been enough to start to warrant a significant drop in distillates. More substantive drops in heating-stove oils should be realized over the next couple of weeks. If I were a heating-stove oil user, I would rein back on my purchases and just purchase what is absolutely necessary to get by. What is more important in this equation is that we now have to see a substantive drop back in heating-stove oil numbers over the next few months in order to avoid problems like we continue to see today; traders taking advantage of the fact that they were trading on a necessity and not on gasoline which can be less so.
“Next year, government should develop home retrofit programs as well as offer assistance to consumers who may need the help in switching to different heating sources. Conversion to electricity may be more practical and affordable for some in the long term if heating-stove oils continue to be over-priced to consumers.
“Numbers for gasoline are starting to gain more focus in the markets as of the start of this week and it is a sure sign that traders and investors are losing interest in heating-stove oils as a place to make a buck. They’ve hit a brick wall called ‘spring’. All eyes will be on gasoline as numbers for that fuel are already trading very high for this time of year. If people are a little more conservative in their purchases, they may just be able to help keep a handle on pricing of gasoline for the summer in spite of traders actions. Otherwise, we may see a scenario like we just left with heating oil in the dying weeks of winter. A boost in refiner capacity along with a building of gasoline inventories ahead of the summer driving season may be the consumers only hope.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Contentious gasoline season starts
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, March 25, 2008 – “Don’t expect to see any large changes to petroleum pricing this week in spite of the drop in crude oil pricing”, that’s from George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“Five out of seven days show a slight decrease of 2/10ths of a cent for heating and stove oils, while gasoline shows only a 2/10ths of a cent increase in pricing over twelve days. Remember that heating-stove oils faced interruption last week and that’s why those numbers are for five days of data.
“While oil traded lower on some disturbing economic news, oil’s related commodities still traded at near record levels. Pricing for heating, stove oils and gasoline all remained high with only slight fluctuations through the last week. Refiner capacity dropped back to a low of below 84% which is a sign that refiners have turned attention to shutdowns for maintenance and the switch to gasoline. Capacity has been measured as being very low in spite of the consumer need for refined product this last winter and it’s almost as if there was a ‘purpose’ to keeping refining ability low.
“It appears that heating-stove oils are starting to lose their focus in the markets as numbers started dropping on the New York Mercantile Exchange this week but, unfortunately, I don’t think it has been enough to start to warrant a significant drop in distillates. More substantive drops in heating-stove oils should be realized over the next couple of weeks. If I were a heating-stove oil user, I would rein back on my purchases and just purchase what is absolutely necessary to get by. What is more important in this equation is that we now have to see a substantive drop back in heating-stove oil numbers over the next few months in order to avoid problems like we continue to see today; traders taking advantage of the fact that they were trading on a necessity and not on gasoline which can be less so.
“Next year, government should develop home retrofit programs as well as offer assistance to consumers who may need the help in switching to different heating sources. Conversion to electricity may be more practical and affordable for some in the long term if heating-stove oils continue to be over-priced to consumers.
“Numbers for gasoline are starting to gain more focus in the markets as of the start of this week and it is a sure sign that traders and investors are losing interest in heating-stove oils as a place to make a buck. They’ve hit a brick wall called ‘spring’. All eyes will be on gasoline as numbers for that fuel are already trading very high for this time of year. If people are a little more conservative in their purchases, they may just be able to help keep a handle on pricing of gasoline for the summer in spite of traders actions. Otherwise, we may see a scenario like we just left with heating oil in the dying weeks of winter. A boost in refiner capacity along with a building of gasoline inventories ahead of the summer driving season may be the consumers only hope.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Heating-stove oils face upwards price interruption
No changes coming to gasoline
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, March 18, 2008- Consumers of heating-stove oils and possibly diesel fuels will see an upwards spike in prices tomorrow night as numbers for those petroleum products have increased radically this past week. That means that the Petroleum Pricing Office will use its interrupter formula to increase those prices.
“Numbers we have for the first five days of this pricing session are indicative of where we’ll see heating-stove oils head this week. Numbers are showing an allowable of 7.1 cents a litre upwards over those first five days and numbers from the New York Mercantile Exchange continue to trade above the four cent allowable for interruption to occur for Monday and Tuesday. While those two days traded down, we’re still in interrupter territory. The actual increase at the end of the day will be greater than five cents a litre,” said George Murphy.
“Gasoline remains unaffected as those numbers have not seen the huge spikes in pricing on the markets like the distillate group of fuels that includes heating, stove, and jet fuels. That’s probably part reason why we saw some of the major airlines increase fuel surcharges the last few days, Air Canada being another to do it just this week.
“The markets remain volatile with investors forcing upwards the prices for related commodities even though we’re at the end of the heating season. We have record spot pricing for heating oil that ranges in the $3.20 a US gallon mark, a price not seen in the history of trading.
“It is simply unknown why investors and traders continue to invest heavily in a ‘winter’ product. We all know that people can no longer afford to pay in excess of a buck a litre for heating oil product but they soon will be paying that in the immediate St. John’s and Mt. Pearl areas. Two weeks ago, I wouldn’t have believed it to be possible. Traders and investors on the MYMEX are showing how irresponsible they are when they invest out of simple ‘desperation”. They have nothing else they can find to make money on in the face of a falling US dollar? The last thing I’d be investing in at this time where there is heavy talk of a recession is any kind of energy based on crude oil.
“Either way you look at it, Big Oil is not going to move any more product with prices moving up. What they have done is drive up the price to a level where heating oils as well as stove oils, are no longer affordable and they have successfully provided their own means of building inventory. People can no longer afford and therefore, cannot buy in the same quantity.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
No changes coming to gasoline
Media release
Conception Bay South, NL, March 18, 2008- Consumers of heating-stove oils and possibly diesel fuels will see an upwards spike in prices tomorrow night as numbers for those petroleum products have increased radically this past week. That means that the Petroleum Pricing Office will use its interrupter formula to increase those prices.
“Numbers we have for the first five days of this pricing session are indicative of where we’ll see heating-stove oils head this week. Numbers are showing an allowable of 7.1 cents a litre upwards over those first five days and numbers from the New York Mercantile Exchange continue to trade above the four cent allowable for interruption to occur for Monday and Tuesday. While those two days traded down, we’re still in interrupter territory. The actual increase at the end of the day will be greater than five cents a litre,” said George Murphy.
“Gasoline remains unaffected as those numbers have not seen the huge spikes in pricing on the markets like the distillate group of fuels that includes heating, stove, and jet fuels. That’s probably part reason why we saw some of the major airlines increase fuel surcharges the last few days, Air Canada being another to do it just this week.
“The markets remain volatile with investors forcing upwards the prices for related commodities even though we’re at the end of the heating season. We have record spot pricing for heating oil that ranges in the $3.20 a US gallon mark, a price not seen in the history of trading.
“It is simply unknown why investors and traders continue to invest heavily in a ‘winter’ product. We all know that people can no longer afford to pay in excess of a buck a litre for heating oil product but they soon will be paying that in the immediate St. John’s and Mt. Pearl areas. Two weeks ago, I wouldn’t have believed it to be possible. Traders and investors on the MYMEX are showing how irresponsible they are when they invest out of simple ‘desperation”. They have nothing else they can find to make money on in the face of a falling US dollar? The last thing I’d be investing in at this time where there is heavy talk of a recession is any kind of energy based on crude oil.
“Either way you look at it, Big Oil is not going to move any more product with prices moving up. What they have done is drive up the price to a level where heating oils as well as stove oils, are no longer affordable and they have successfully provided their own means of building inventory. People can no longer afford and therefore, cannot buy in the same quantity.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
New data still shows increases to heating and stove oils
Gasoline to drop...
I have some new data to share with you all in the province...Follows from yesterdays post.
New numbers here are still showing an increase coming to heating oil prices as well as those for stove oils, this time for twelve days show an allowable of 1.86 cents per litre. That could mean a possible high selling price of 98.02 cents per litre for heating-stove oils in this area!
Unbelievable!...
Initial projections at the start of the fall season showed numbers anywhere between 85 and 95 cents with a buck a litre possible...
Gasoline shows downwards at 1.9 cents in spite of the record trading price for crude oil. I think that what this shows is that this commodity has been stretched to its limit when it comes to being a toll worthy of investment rather than the US greenback. I think that what we see is the law of diminishing returns kicking in here-you can raise the price but you will still sell less product to make the same revenues...
As a sidenote?...
Nice to see M.J Ervin revise the summer forecast for gasoline pricing but his numbers are still a little too high. He's forecasting summertime prices of $1.20 a litre in the metro areas-I presume he's talking Toronto- with possible spikes of $1.50 in more rural areas.
I feel like we're all caught in a "bid-ask" scenario at times with the Calgary company part of the "ask" side...lol
My models are still showing anywhere between $1.22 and $1.37 a litre for gas in the immediate St.John's area and with my most recent model showing $1.28 a litre at peak.That means that Toronto and it's environs could see anywhere around what they are experiencing right now, around the $1.08 figure...
Keep in mind that this does not include panic scenarios to the markets like-you heard from me first-"Hurricane Syndrome". Otherwise, that could mean spikes to newfound territory in pricing again.
I'm still taking bets that investors are soon going to realise that they can't drive up the price of commodities anymore than what they fel the consumer is willing to pay and that's why, when you mix recesion into the equation, that we'll soon see a "profit-taking selloff" in crude oil.
Hold off on buying any more heating oils for now, if you can do it. My bets are that this is the last of the increases and we'll soon be witness to a slide in heating-stove oil spot pricing.
Any comments, drop me a note or leave one here...
Regards,
George Murphy
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
What's wrong with oil?
I was asked the other day what it is about oil that has attracted so many to invest in it rather than sink money into other things that one would consider "recession-proof".
Present investment in oil is a little disheartening to see to the average consumer but to play folly with my investment plan and put that money to risk on oil instead of other solid things, is a little suicidal in my belief. That's part of the problem that I have with the latest run-up in crude oil pricing for which the US dollar has taken the back seat...
I don't understand how simple rules of economics can be ignored and money invested in a product that will see some sort of decline in usage if the recession talk comes to fruition. If we are indeed, heading towards recession, jobs and energy usage are the first to feel the blow of any slowdown in economic activity. Then why is there such heavy investment in oil?
I've heard every excuse in the book as to the reasons why you and me are going to pay at the pumps for investors folly but, is that any reason to become a spark that will aid in causing a recession at the same time? When will the spark come that will "start" the slowdown on demand and cause pricing to slip again? If there is recession then high prices for crude oil and their related commodities will surely be the reason for it. That, and George Bush's entry into Iraq... 17 billion in the war now, and counting.Is there any other reason for it?
By the way...
I still have only eight days data out of a possible fourteen that still shows a slight drop in gasoline pricing (2.3 a litre) and a slight increase in heating-stove oil numbers (1.5 a litre). Both modest numbers on already high prices should also be a warning for the oil investor out there: you're already starting to deal with the laws of diminishing returns.
I'm betting my money on the inevitable decline in crude in the next few months if the trend of recession continues. I would suggest to you people who have unknowingly invested in oil through your pension palns to get in touch and ask questions about your investors "investment"...It is, after all, your money...
Sunday, March 02, 2008
Possible downwards interruption in pricing?
Yup...
You read it right...
Seems that the first two days of this pricing session are pointing down and that means that, if it keeps up for the next couple of days, there is a liklihood that we'll see a drop downwards in gasoline and heating oil pricing...
Numbers on gasoline for the first two days show almost 4.7 cents a litre down waith taxes in while heating and stove oils are perilously close to the four cents needed to see them drop as early as this coming Thursday.
Stay tuned as I'll have more this coming Tuesday.In the meantime, try to buy as little as is needed.
George Murphy
gasprices@hotmail.com
Yup...
You read it right...
Seems that the first two days of this pricing session are pointing down and that means that, if it keeps up for the next couple of days, there is a liklihood that we'll see a drop downwards in gasoline and heating oil pricing...
Numbers on gasoline for the first two days show almost 4.7 cents a litre down waith taxes in while heating and stove oils are perilously close to the four cents needed to see them drop as early as this coming Thursday.
Stay tuned as I'll have more this coming Tuesday.In the meantime, try to buy as little as is needed.
George Murphy
gasprices@hotmail.com
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Consumers to expect another hit at the pumps
Media release
St. John’s, NL, February 26, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see another increase to heating, stove oils and gasoline prices before they see any mitigation in pricing, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
What consumers will see
“Consumers can expect to see another 3.43 cents a litre to heating-stove oil prices and another 3.1 cents per litre on gasoline this coming Thursday, that’s with five days out of a possible seven days reporting. Consumers of heating and stove oils should gear themselves to making this last fill-up of product stretch itself out as long as possible with the hope that the markets focus will drop from heating-stove oil product. Hopefully, we will see a steadying out of prices there and some moderation in gasoline before the summer driving season hits,” said Murphy.
Why another increase?
“Heavy investment in commodities with the U.S dollars continued weakness along with varying international concerns continues to play heavy in the markets. The possibilities of another U.S interest rate cut along with recession fears, has led to a heavy investment in commodities like heating, gasoline and crude oils.
“OPEC continues to rattle their sabers over the possibility of production cuts even though the price of oil reached $100.34 U.S a barrel. President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez says that $100 U.S per barrel is a ‘fair’ price and should be sustained while other OPEC countries fear that oil could drop in price should a recession become a reality. OPEC will meet March 5th to discuss the possibility of a production cut to avoid any drop in oil pricing.
“The possibility of supply disruptions continues to wreak havoc to oil prices and consumer concerns. Ongoing violence in Nigeria along with Turkey’s invasion of Northern Iraq where the Turkish army is attempting to put to rest the Kurdish problem figure heavy in the equation. Ongoing possibilities of supply disruptions remain in these two areas where some 4.2 million barrels of supply could possibly be disrupted should violence spread to oil-related facilities
Summer pricing
Should there be no moderation in spot pricing and historical difference between year-ago pricing trend continues as is, it could prove to be the most expensive summer driving season on record, barring the entrance of the ‘Hurricane Syndrome’ effect. Historical spots remain very high as compare to last year and, if the markets leave unchecked, will result in new record pricing for gasoline. So far, that trend shows that we could pay upwards of $1.37 a litre for gasoline in the immediate St. John’s-Mt. Pearl area. That means even higher pricing for other areas of the province where, in Labrador for example, consumers could pay upwards of $1.50 per litre for gasoline. While a remote possibility right now the difference between last years numbers and this years, are a little disconcerting.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member My blog: www.gasandoil.blogspot.com
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Media release
St. John’s, NL, February 26, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see another increase to heating, stove oils and gasoline prices before they see any mitigation in pricing, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
What consumers will see
“Consumers can expect to see another 3.43 cents a litre to heating-stove oil prices and another 3.1 cents per litre on gasoline this coming Thursday, that’s with five days out of a possible seven days reporting. Consumers of heating and stove oils should gear themselves to making this last fill-up of product stretch itself out as long as possible with the hope that the markets focus will drop from heating-stove oil product. Hopefully, we will see a steadying out of prices there and some moderation in gasoline before the summer driving season hits,” said Murphy.
Why another increase?
“Heavy investment in commodities with the U.S dollars continued weakness along with varying international concerns continues to play heavy in the markets. The possibilities of another U.S interest rate cut along with recession fears, has led to a heavy investment in commodities like heating, gasoline and crude oils.
“OPEC continues to rattle their sabers over the possibility of production cuts even though the price of oil reached $100.34 U.S a barrel. President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez says that $100 U.S per barrel is a ‘fair’ price and should be sustained while other OPEC countries fear that oil could drop in price should a recession become a reality. OPEC will meet March 5th to discuss the possibility of a production cut to avoid any drop in oil pricing.
“The possibility of supply disruptions continues to wreak havoc to oil prices and consumer concerns. Ongoing violence in Nigeria along with Turkey’s invasion of Northern Iraq where the Turkish army is attempting to put to rest the Kurdish problem figure heavy in the equation. Ongoing possibilities of supply disruptions remain in these two areas where some 4.2 million barrels of supply could possibly be disrupted should violence spread to oil-related facilities
Summer pricing
Should there be no moderation in spot pricing and historical difference between year-ago pricing trend continues as is, it could prove to be the most expensive summer driving season on record, barring the entrance of the ‘Hurricane Syndrome’ effect. Historical spots remain very high as compare to last year and, if the markets leave unchecked, will result in new record pricing for gasoline. So far, that trend shows that we could pay upwards of $1.37 a litre for gasoline in the immediate St. John’s-Mt. Pearl area. That means even higher pricing for other areas of the province where, in Labrador for example, consumers could pay upwards of $1.50 per litre for gasoline. While a remote possibility right now the difference between last years numbers and this years, are a little disconcerting.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member My blog: www.gasandoil.blogspot.com
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Still projecting increases across the board
Update
February 19, 2008- Numbers are still showing that consumers here in Newfoundland and Labrador along with the rest of North America, will be hit with increases to all consumer petroleum products. Consumers here can expect the pounding to begin this coming Thursday morning so, the word is to get to the pumps by midnight Wednesday.
Five days out of a possible seven needed for interruption to fuel prices show an allowable of 5.2 cents a litre increase while, heating-stove oils are showing 3.75 cents a litre up.Allowing for my 3/10ths of a cent margin of error, expect those fuels to increace as well. The Public Utilities Board allows a four cent a litre movement up or down, before they will interrupt pricing.
According to what I have,that will be done early on all fuels I monitor.
Whether you blame OPEC for thinking they'll have to cut back production, the traders on the New York Mercantile Exhange for seeing an opportunity to make a buck or a refinery fire in Texas, expect that Big Oil will be turning the thumb-screws to you shortly...
More tomorrow as another day's data will be available!
Regards,
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Monday, February 18, 2008
Get to the pumps before Thursday
Call your heating oil guy too...
I'll have more on this tomorrow around this time but, from the looks of things, Newfoundland and Labrador consumers will be taking a hit at the pumps and at the heating-stove oil truck level this coming Thursday, February 21st.
Numbers I have from the last adjustment just last week, show an average of 66.06 a litre for heating-stove oils and an average of 59.43 a litre for gasoline.
Trouble with this is that numbers after last Tuesdays set average are all well over those.Each fuel is showing in excess of four cents a litre up and, in some cases, more than the allowable needed to warrant interruption to current fuel pricing.
I'll have more in a posted news release on what you might expect to see tomorrow, but after Hugo Chavez's little tirade last week along with a reported refinery fire in Texas this morning and heavy investment in oil and related commodities over the past week, it was bound to happen.
What does this mean to summer pricing?
Gas is supposed to drop during the winter and the increase in heating-stove oils at this time of the year means that we'll have that much more to face dollar-wise next fall.
You just get the feeling that you're going to have less to spend over the next little while...
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Some relief coming at the pumps
Nigeria and Venezuela situation stymies price drops
News release
St. John’s, NL, February 12, 2008- Consumers can expect to see some modest drops in pricing for some fuel products but they aren’t as great as what would have happened if the situation in South America didn’t have to blow in.
“Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see close to 2.0 cents a litre down on gasoline and a rough 1.3 cents a litre down on heating and stove oils this coming Thursday, that’s with twelve days data out of a possible fourteen days available at press time,” said George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“We were initially looking at something greater than 2.5 cents a litre down on gas with a larger than expected decrease up to Thursday of last week but the ongoing war of words between Hugo Chavez and the United States and an ensuing court case between Venezuela and Big Oil caused a huge increase in oil prices. That, in turn, drove up the related prices for their refined commodities.
“The Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, nationalized some major oil fields belonging to Exxon Mobil some time ago. Exxon Mobil has since moved to place a freeze on the assets of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela’s overseas assets and Chavez has promised an economic war if the courts agree with the move. Chavez has promised to disrupt exports of crude to the United States, the fourth largest importer of Venezuelan oil products.
“It’s a unique problem that the markets face here. Most of the oil refineries that can refine Venezuelan products are situated in the United States. Chavez may just be trying to raise his own popularity at home but it’s a funny way of doing things. If he fails to export products and raise revenue for his country, he will have to curtail spending. Funny thing here also is that Venezuelan exports amounted to almost 1.75 million barrels per day of crude to the United States so he’s potentially forcing the United States to look elsewhere for more stable supplies of crude oil. There may be opportunities here for other major oil producers to capitalize on his actions. Either way, it’s a “Catch-22” and consumers will end up paying for his folly or his own people will.
“In the meantime, Nigerian exports continue to suffer in the face of an ongoing “civil war” in the area that has led to a disruption of almost 500,000 barrels of exports of crude oil to the west. The latest actions involved rebels attacking a Nigerian naval vessel that was performing escort for an oil company staff vessel. One sailor died in that attack.
“A full blow-up of violence in the major oil production region will have an adverse cost to consumers and to oil pricing. Oil prices have increased almost four dollars U.S a barrel since Thursday afternoon’s market close while spot prices for gasoline and heating/stove oils have increased along with it.
“We are still well above the numbers for last year for the same timeframe. Gasoline is now 11 cents above while heating/stove oils are 16 cents above year-ago levels. The implications of those numbers should be obvious.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Nigeria and Venezuela situation stymies price drops
News release
St. John’s, NL, February 12, 2008- Consumers can expect to see some modest drops in pricing for some fuel products but they aren’t as great as what would have happened if the situation in South America didn’t have to blow in.
“Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see close to 2.0 cents a litre down on gasoline and a rough 1.3 cents a litre down on heating and stove oils this coming Thursday, that’s with twelve days data out of a possible fourteen days available at press time,” said George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“We were initially looking at something greater than 2.5 cents a litre down on gas with a larger than expected decrease up to Thursday of last week but the ongoing war of words between Hugo Chavez and the United States and an ensuing court case between Venezuela and Big Oil caused a huge increase in oil prices. That, in turn, drove up the related prices for their refined commodities.
“The Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, nationalized some major oil fields belonging to Exxon Mobil some time ago. Exxon Mobil has since moved to place a freeze on the assets of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela’s overseas assets and Chavez has promised an economic war if the courts agree with the move. Chavez has promised to disrupt exports of crude to the United States, the fourth largest importer of Venezuelan oil products.
“It’s a unique problem that the markets face here. Most of the oil refineries that can refine Venezuelan products are situated in the United States. Chavez may just be trying to raise his own popularity at home but it’s a funny way of doing things. If he fails to export products and raise revenue for his country, he will have to curtail spending. Funny thing here also is that Venezuelan exports amounted to almost 1.75 million barrels per day of crude to the United States so he’s potentially forcing the United States to look elsewhere for more stable supplies of crude oil. There may be opportunities here for other major oil producers to capitalize on his actions. Either way, it’s a “Catch-22” and consumers will end up paying for his folly or his own people will.
“In the meantime, Nigerian exports continue to suffer in the face of an ongoing “civil war” in the area that has led to a disruption of almost 500,000 barrels of exports of crude oil to the west. The latest actions involved rebels attacking a Nigerian naval vessel that was performing escort for an oil company staff vessel. One sailor died in that attack.
“A full blow-up of violence in the major oil production region will have an adverse cost to consumers and to oil pricing. Oil prices have increased almost four dollars U.S a barrel since Thursday afternoon’s market close while spot prices for gasoline and heating/stove oils have increased along with it.
“We are still well above the numbers for last year for the same timeframe. Gasoline is now 11 cents above while heating/stove oils are 16 cents above year-ago levels. The implications of those numbers should be obvious.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Friday, February 01, 2008
Corporate oil company profits
Bordering on perversion?
I don't think anyone should be surprised that Big Oil is reporting the largest ever profits for any company in U.S history. What should be disturbing though, is how much of that came at the expense of consumers.
Today, we have heard that the Canadian division of Exxon/Mobil has profited by almost 880 million dollars over the last quarter while, the parent company has captured nearly 40 billion dollars.
Great for the shareholders and, no doubt, the answer from Big Oil to the "wonderment" will be "If you want to see anything in your pocket, you should invest in your friendly, neighbourhood oil company".
Great response fellas!..
I have a problem, however...
Consumers in this country are paying an exhuberant amount of money for things like heating oil and gasoline which, I may add, is now in a "non-demand" season. The consumers in this country, particularly here in Newfoundland and Labrador, have faced the highest price for heating oil since I have been keeping records; for some ten years now, and the next heating season, barring a recession, promises more in store...
Big Oil doesn't have a problem with that...
The government of the province is left to deal with the problem and give relief to consumers who can't afford to heat themselves in what is being seen as a necessity of life. These corporate profits, in essence, have come off the backs of you and me twice, once in the form of taxation and secondly in the fact that our government has had to give something back to those in the east left to freeze in the cold-let alone the rest of the country.
Keeping in mind that the New York Mercantile Exchange deals with oil, gas, and heating oils on a day to day basis, we are yet to have the explanation as to why oil itself has tripled in prices since the heady days of 2004. Incomes have seen scant growth in the past few years and energy prices themselves have come to motor up any rate of inflation being themselves almost 300% up in costs to the consumer.
Keep in mind also that not all oil is bought at the West Texas Intermediate price that you see in the news. Most of that stuff you're burning right now comes in from places where their sell price is much lower than that we all see.
It's just that this "dark and dirty" stuff we need so badly is more representative of oil company profits than we deem...
At mine and your expense, those profits are bordering on perversion...
Regards,
George
Break at the pumps coming
Heating and stove oils also expected to drop
Media release
St. John’s, NL, January 29, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see some slight downwards adjustments in all major petroleum groups this week, that’s according to the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“From the look of the numbers, consumers can expect to see a decrease of three cents per litre on gasoline and 2.49 cents down on stove oils. The stove oil number will probably be a good indicator of where heating oils will also be going. I also expect to see gasoline drop further than what I have recorded for the last twelve days because of the disparity we saw in the last adjustment session. I think consumers should see somewhere in the area of four cents a litre down on gasoline just to keep up with what has happened in other markets last week,” said George Murphy, researcher for the group.
“Last adjustment period we saw the PUB allow an increase of 1.3 cents per litre while our numbers showed a 1.3 cent a litre drop. I’m expecting the PUB to come out with new numbers that allow for a larger than expected drop from the numbers that I have just so they can “catch up” to what has happened in the markets and match the reality that was reflected in the conditions at the time of last adjustment
“A good build in gasoline and crude oil stocks last week helped in the downwards turn in crude prices. That and a few words of warning about a possible start to a recession both impacted crude and related commodity prices. People are getting a little warning out there that high energy prices have started to impact economies and personal finances.
“The International Energy Agency has also lowered its expectations of energy demand saying that they expect crude oil demand to falter somewhat in the coming weeks. That has also played into the markets. Some rumblings of a possible economic slowdown are also coming from China which has the world’s fastest rising economy.
“Heating oil prices should also feel the effect of the downwards pressures being felt on jet fuels. Demand for jet fuels has dropped, ranging some four per cent below year ago levels. Hopefully, the numbers will reflect the trend in jet fuels and consumers can get that advantage in the form of lower heating oil pricing. Heating oil spots are still 19 cents a litre higher than last year for the same timeframe.
“While we are still well down in crude inventories as compared to last year, gasolines are almost at “year ago” levels. Demand there has steadied at a rough one per cent over the same timeframe last year. The problem here is that the average spot price for gasoline still remains some 17 cents a litre higher than the same time last year. That should bring cause for summer pricing concerns if we don’t see higher builds in inventories or a drop in winter demand.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Heating and stove oils also expected to drop
Media release
St. John’s, NL, January 29, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see some slight downwards adjustments in all major petroleum groups this week, that’s according to the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“From the look of the numbers, consumers can expect to see a decrease of three cents per litre on gasoline and 2.49 cents down on stove oils. The stove oil number will probably be a good indicator of where heating oils will also be going. I also expect to see gasoline drop further than what I have recorded for the last twelve days because of the disparity we saw in the last adjustment session. I think consumers should see somewhere in the area of four cents a litre down on gasoline just to keep up with what has happened in other markets last week,” said George Murphy, researcher for the group.
“Last adjustment period we saw the PUB allow an increase of 1.3 cents per litre while our numbers showed a 1.3 cent a litre drop. I’m expecting the PUB to come out with new numbers that allow for a larger than expected drop from the numbers that I have just so they can “catch up” to what has happened in the markets and match the reality that was reflected in the conditions at the time of last adjustment
“A good build in gasoline and crude oil stocks last week helped in the downwards turn in crude prices. That and a few words of warning about a possible start to a recession both impacted crude and related commodity prices. People are getting a little warning out there that high energy prices have started to impact economies and personal finances.
“The International Energy Agency has also lowered its expectations of energy demand saying that they expect crude oil demand to falter somewhat in the coming weeks. That has also played into the markets. Some rumblings of a possible economic slowdown are also coming from China which has the world’s fastest rising economy.
“Heating oil prices should also feel the effect of the downwards pressures being felt on jet fuels. Demand for jet fuels has dropped, ranging some four per cent below year ago levels. Hopefully, the numbers will reflect the trend in jet fuels and consumers can get that advantage in the form of lower heating oil pricing. Heating oil spots are still 19 cents a litre higher than last year for the same timeframe.
“While we are still well down in crude inventories as compared to last year, gasolines are almost at “year ago” levels. Demand there has steadied at a rough one per cent over the same timeframe last year. The problem here is that the average spot price for gasoline still remains some 17 cents a litre higher than the same time last year. That should bring cause for summer pricing concerns if we don’t see higher builds in inventories or a drop in winter demand.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Gas to drop while heating and stove oils increase
Markets eye Northern Iraq
Media release
St. John’s, NL, December 18, 2007- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see a slight drop in gasoline prices this coming Thursday ahead of the long drive home, that’s from George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“With thirteen days out of a possible fourteen days of data on hand, there’s enough there to call the shot on how pricing will look this coming Thursday. It looks like gas prices will drop by 1.3 cents a litre while heating and stove oils will likely increase by somewhere close to one cent a litre,” said Murphy.
“Inventories of heating oil remain a concern while we are into the January and February buying contracts. We still have not seen substantial increases in inventories even though refiner capacity has picked up slightly. Cold and stormy weather across North America has also impacted demand numbers.
“The situation in Northern Iraq is playing heavily into the markets today as Turkish forces have invaded some parts of Iraq to fight Kurdish rebels. There is a fear in the markets that oil exports from Northern Iraq will face possible disruptions and that has played into the markets significantly. We may see slightly larger increase in heating and stove oils and a lessening of the gasoline numbers as a result. Before the news today, we were relatively stable price wise.”
The Public utilities Board will set prices for fuels this coming Thursday morning.
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Markets eye Northern Iraq
Media release
St. John’s, NL, December 18, 2007- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see a slight drop in gasoline prices this coming Thursday ahead of the long drive home, that’s from George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“With thirteen days out of a possible fourteen days of data on hand, there’s enough there to call the shot on how pricing will look this coming Thursday. It looks like gas prices will drop by 1.3 cents a litre while heating and stove oils will likely increase by somewhere close to one cent a litre,” said Murphy.
“Inventories of heating oil remain a concern while we are into the January and February buying contracts. We still have not seen substantial increases in inventories even though refiner capacity has picked up slightly. Cold and stormy weather across North America has also impacted demand numbers.
“The situation in Northern Iraq is playing heavily into the markets today as Turkish forces have invaded some parts of Iraq to fight Kurdish rebels. There is a fear in the markets that oil exports from Northern Iraq will face possible disruptions and that has played into the markets significantly. We may see slightly larger increase in heating and stove oils and a lessening of the gasoline numbers as a result. Before the news today, we were relatively stable price wise.”
The Public utilities Board will set prices for fuels this coming Thursday morning.
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Government announces details of home heating rebate
Some people left out
News release
St. John’s, NL, December 6, 2007- Government has announced details of the home heating rebate that will be given out this year but, some people will not be able to avail of the program in spite of increased revenues from oil reources.
“I feel that government missed out on an opportunity to allow all Newfoundland and Labradorians to benefit from rising government revenues from increased offshore oil revenues. Everyone, regardless of income, should have been able to get government assistance to pay for the rising costs of heating. Government will still benefit from record prices in spite of this rebate,” said George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“The government of New Brunswick is talking about increasing taxes in their province to recoup revenue from the federal government dropping part of its portion of the HST. If they succeed in increasing the provincial take there, the province of Newfoundland and Labrador has to follow suit and increase taxes on heat as well. The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador has to actively look at leaving the HST agreement it signed back in 1997 in order to remove all taxes on heat or enter into negotiations with the other signatories to the agreement in order to revise the agreement. The province needs to start to express ‘fiscal independence’ and call our own shot. There never should have been taxes applied to necessities like heat.
“I am pleased that the income threshold has increased, but the threshold they have set still bars anyone with marginal incomes close to the cutoff point. If I am a two income household that collectively makes $41,000.00, then my household is not eligible unless I meet some of the special parameters set out. The rebate should cover everyone and not just a select few. There are still going to be consumers out there falling between the cracks. The rebate gets less with income exceeding $35,000.00 and cuts off at $40,000.00. The rebate should have been given to everyone regardless of income. The least that government should do here is to allow the applications from people who are close to the threshold as they may have special circumstances that are slightly outside the requirements of the rebate program. All residents, regardless of income, should have been able to benefit from increased oil revenues.
“We are still awaiting the announcement of a home retrofit program to allow grants to people to increase the energy efficiency of their homes and help them reign in rising energy costs. Again, while the government has made untold millions in increasing oil revenues, it has not yet made available a new home retrofit program that is cost effective and beneficial to the environment.
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Some people left out
News release
St. John’s, NL, December 6, 2007- Government has announced details of the home heating rebate that will be given out this year but, some people will not be able to avail of the program in spite of increased revenues from oil reources.
“I feel that government missed out on an opportunity to allow all Newfoundland and Labradorians to benefit from rising government revenues from increased offshore oil revenues. Everyone, regardless of income, should have been able to get government assistance to pay for the rising costs of heating. Government will still benefit from record prices in spite of this rebate,” said George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“The government of New Brunswick is talking about increasing taxes in their province to recoup revenue from the federal government dropping part of its portion of the HST. If they succeed in increasing the provincial take there, the province of Newfoundland and Labrador has to follow suit and increase taxes on heat as well. The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador has to actively look at leaving the HST agreement it signed back in 1997 in order to remove all taxes on heat or enter into negotiations with the other signatories to the agreement in order to revise the agreement. The province needs to start to express ‘fiscal independence’ and call our own shot. There never should have been taxes applied to necessities like heat.
“I am pleased that the income threshold has increased, but the threshold they have set still bars anyone with marginal incomes close to the cutoff point. If I am a two income household that collectively makes $41,000.00, then my household is not eligible unless I meet some of the special parameters set out. The rebate should cover everyone and not just a select few. There are still going to be consumers out there falling between the cracks. The rebate gets less with income exceeding $35,000.00 and cuts off at $40,000.00. The rebate should have been given to everyone regardless of income. The least that government should do here is to allow the applications from people who are close to the threshold as they may have special circumstances that are slightly outside the requirements of the rebate program. All residents, regardless of income, should have been able to benefit from increased oil revenues.
“We are still awaiting the announcement of a home retrofit program to allow grants to people to increase the energy efficiency of their homes and help them reign in rising energy costs. Again, while the government has made untold millions in increasing oil revenues, it has not yet made available a new home retrofit program that is cost effective and beneficial to the environment.
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Slight drop in distillates coming
Gasoline to remain little changed
News release
St. John’s, NL, December 4, 2007- Consumers of distillates like stove oils, heating and diesel may be set to see a slight downwards adjustment in prices this coming Thursday, that’s from George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“The loss in dollar value against the U.S greenback did exactly what we had feared would happen; absorb some of the drop in spot pricing of distillates and help support prices rather than see it go into freefall,” Murphy said. “The price of the refined product only lost a clear three cents since last adjustment November 28, 2007 when prices were interrupted. The U.S markets saw a loss of almost twelve cents a gallon off heating oil futures pricing this last week.
“While coming close to a four cent interruption last week, we’ve watched spots fall again in the second week bringing us to a ‘break even point” where there may be very little change to gasoline pricing, up or down. With twelve out of a possible fourteen days of data, gasoline shows an increase of 4/10ths of a cent while heating and stove oils will drop by three cents. If numbers hold steady for the next two business days, I expect there to be little change from those numbers though gasoline will be closer to a zero change.
“Heating oil spot pricing remains fourteen cents a litre higher than the same time last year (December 04/06) while gasoline spots are now nine cents a litre higher. While OPEC may have been talking about the possibility of an increase in production at its next meeting today, I don’t expect there to be positive news on that front. A lot of OPEC members like Libya aren’t ready to increase output. Consumers have another two or three months left to ride out this winter storm in heating and stove oils while, for gasoline users, a storm may be just developing.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Gasoline to remain little changed
News release
St. John’s, NL, December 4, 2007- Consumers of distillates like stove oils, heating and diesel may be set to see a slight downwards adjustment in prices this coming Thursday, that’s from George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“The loss in dollar value against the U.S greenback did exactly what we had feared would happen; absorb some of the drop in spot pricing of distillates and help support prices rather than see it go into freefall,” Murphy said. “The price of the refined product only lost a clear three cents since last adjustment November 28, 2007 when prices were interrupted. The U.S markets saw a loss of almost twelve cents a gallon off heating oil futures pricing this last week.
“While coming close to a four cent interruption last week, we’ve watched spots fall again in the second week bringing us to a ‘break even point” where there may be very little change to gasoline pricing, up or down. With twelve out of a possible fourteen days of data, gasoline shows an increase of 4/10ths of a cent while heating and stove oils will drop by three cents. If numbers hold steady for the next two business days, I expect there to be little change from those numbers though gasoline will be closer to a zero change.
“Heating oil spot pricing remains fourteen cents a litre higher than the same time last year (December 04/06) while gasoline spots are now nine cents a litre higher. While OPEC may have been talking about the possibility of an increase in production at its next meeting today, I don’t expect there to be positive news on that front. A lot of OPEC members like Libya aren’t ready to increase output. Consumers have another two or three months left to ride out this winter storm in heating and stove oils while, for gasoline users, a storm may be just developing.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Interrupter criteria met for stove oils
Premier asked to “Expedite” rebate and retrofit programs
News release
St. John’s, NL, November 28, 2007- Numbers are showing that the Petroleum Pricing Office will be forced to bump up pricing to consumers of stove oils and possibly heating oils early Thursday as the price for those important consumer petroleum products continues to rise.
“With six out a possible seven days, I have numbers that warrant a five cent a litre increase on stove oils. Heating oil being also part of the same distillate group will probably see a substantial increase also. Jet fuel and #2 heating oil are blended during the winter months as jet is used as an antifreeze agent. Jet fuel has traded very high, much higher than stove oils the past two weeks or so. It’s probably inevitable that heating oils will also take a shot upwards,” Murphy said. “Gasoline numbers show a 3.3 cent a litre increase so far but that won’t happen this Thursday as the criteria for interruption weren’t met for that fuel”
“That would make our high price in the St. John’s area for heating oil hit 92.47 cents a litre, shattering last years record. The fact that we are now in a downturn with the Canadian dollar, losing value against its U.S counterpart and that has only aggravated the problem. We predicted that this would happen and come back to complicate things for consumers. If the Bank of Canada reduces interest rates later this week, it will only aggravate it further.
“There’s one word for government in all this. ‘Expedite!’ As consumers, we have waited long enough for an announcement on a heating and rebate program that will include everyone. We warned the government to get ready to have their program in place last July and we’re still waiting. When the next increase in price hits, we’ll be waiting still.”
-30-
Premier asked to “Expedite” rebate and retrofit programs
News release
St. John’s, NL, November 28, 2007- Numbers are showing that the Petroleum Pricing Office will be forced to bump up pricing to consumers of stove oils and possibly heating oils early Thursday as the price for those important consumer petroleum products continues to rise.
“With six out a possible seven days, I have numbers that warrant a five cent a litre increase on stove oils. Heating oil being also part of the same distillate group will probably see a substantial increase also. Jet fuel and #2 heating oil are blended during the winter months as jet is used as an antifreeze agent. Jet fuel has traded very high, much higher than stove oils the past two weeks or so. It’s probably inevitable that heating oils will also take a shot upwards,” Murphy said. “Gasoline numbers show a 3.3 cent a litre increase so far but that won’t happen this Thursday as the criteria for interruption weren’t met for that fuel”
“That would make our high price in the St. John’s area for heating oil hit 92.47 cents a litre, shattering last years record. The fact that we are now in a downturn with the Canadian dollar, losing value against its U.S counterpart and that has only aggravated the problem. We predicted that this would happen and come back to complicate things for consumers. If the Bank of Canada reduces interest rates later this week, it will only aggravate it further.
“There’s one word for government in all this. ‘Expedite!’ As consumers, we have waited long enough for an announcement on a heating and rebate program that will include everyone. We warned the government to get ready to have their program in place last July and we’re still waiting. When the next increase in price hits, we’ll be waiting still.”
-30-
For more information, contact:
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Pricing continues to increase
Numbers show fuel prices increasing this Thursday
News release
St. John’s, NL, November 20, 2007- Fuel prices are set to increase to consumers this coming Thursday and the news may not get any better for the summer driving season, that’s if the numbers hold as they are. While consumers will suffer this winter keeping warm , they will also be hit keeping cool this coming summer.
“The news is not good as we head into winter. Record spot pricing is being reflected in the markets and that means consumers are going to be paying more for important petrol products for the foreseeable future,” said George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices. “There’s even the hint of bad news for the summer if the numbers keep up the way they have been on gasoline.”
Thursday price change
“With twelve days out of a possible fourteen to go on, we’re looking at 2.4 cents per litre up on stove oils and 3.0 cents up on gasoline for this coming Thursday. Heating oil numbers are now reflected by a 25/75 mix of heating and jet fuels. The heating number is showing 2.4 cents but, once again, 25 per cent of that is only used. I do not have numbers for jet fuel so, being a distillate also, I can only tell the consumers that those numbers are also up. They should take that as bad news. Today, oil is trading at $98 per barrel so; I don’t expect any lower numbers for the other two days of data.
We're witnessing the opposite effect with the Canadian dollar as well with it losing ground against its US counterpart.What was once an insulating effect is slowly coming back to burn consumers.We've lost five cents there in less than two weeks of measurement. It is essentially, the main reason we're looking at a rough three cents on everything.
Why the numbers are going up
Several reasons are being cited for the next round of increases that we are going to see, and probably will see, in the coming weeks.
The U.S dollars fall against other world currencies has led investors to drive up the cost of oil. While the U.S dollar is seen as a bad investment, they want to put money into other commodities like oil that have a little more security behind them. That’s another reason for the skyrocketing costs of gold. Even OPEC has discussed changing from the U.S dollar and that remains a bone of contention with some OPEC members who disagree with any future change in how oil is measured. Longtime enemies of the U.S, namely Iran and Venezuela, are soliciting for a change from the U.S measurement.
Other reasons for rising costs
. Continuing low refiner capacity. While there have been very modest builds in crude oil and gasoline inventories, there have been draw-downs on distillate inventories. Heating oil costs have risen as a result and the coming winter season has attracted investors there.
· Ongoing world violence. Kind of self explanatory but, we’ve been dealing with this problem for ages now. It’s still there and won’t go away. The problems remain in Northern Iraq remain and Turkey remains keyed to invade the region and pacify the Kurdish population. There remains a supply disruption possibility.
· No boost in OPEC production. OPEC announced last week that it had formally “lost control of pricing of oil product” but it would not be stepping up production of oil as it feels that the “market remains well supplied” with product. The markets reacted by trading up on oil.
Historic numbers
“At this same time last year, November 17/06, spot prices for heating and stove oils were recorded at 48.86 cents a litre. Gasoline spot was recorded at 47.39 cents a litre. This year those numbers are 66.10 cents for heating/stove and 62.53 cents for gasoline. That’s a 17 cent a litre disparity for heating/stove oils and 15 cents for gasoline. I don’t think I have to point out the implications of higher spots this year over last year.
Early summer forecast
“If we don’t see gasoline numbers come down before the spring hits, then we may see new record prices for gasoline again this coming summer. Add that to the fact that the U.S dollar is close to or, almost at par with the Canadian dollar, and we have a potential hit to our tourism industry. It’s going to be a little harder getting tourists from the U.S to drive up for a visit. Is there another tourism initiative in the works to help operators who will need the extra help in attracting visitors?
No announcement of rebate programs
“We’re still waiting for some kind of word from government on any heating rebate or retrofit programming for this year. While consumers are dealing with high pricing at an early stage of the season, those costs are reflective of last February. We still have a long time to go before we hit the winter peak in pricing. We need to make sure that all consumers are helped out with one of the most costly winters in recent memory. All Newfoundland and Labradorians, as well as Canadians, will be paying much higher prices this coming winter and all of them will need help.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Numbers show fuel prices increasing this Thursday
News release
St. John’s, NL, November 20, 2007- Fuel prices are set to increase to consumers this coming Thursday and the news may not get any better for the summer driving season, that’s if the numbers hold as they are. While consumers will suffer this winter keeping warm , they will also be hit keeping cool this coming summer.
“The news is not good as we head into winter. Record spot pricing is being reflected in the markets and that means consumers are going to be paying more for important petrol products for the foreseeable future,” said George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices. “There’s even the hint of bad news for the summer if the numbers keep up the way they have been on gasoline.”
Thursday price change
“With twelve days out of a possible fourteen to go on, we’re looking at 2.4 cents per litre up on stove oils and 3.0 cents up on gasoline for this coming Thursday. Heating oil numbers are now reflected by a 25/75 mix of heating and jet fuels. The heating number is showing 2.4 cents but, once again, 25 per cent of that is only used. I do not have numbers for jet fuel so, being a distillate also, I can only tell the consumers that those numbers are also up. They should take that as bad news. Today, oil is trading at $98 per barrel so; I don’t expect any lower numbers for the other two days of data.
We're witnessing the opposite effect with the Canadian dollar as well with it losing ground against its US counterpart.What was once an insulating effect is slowly coming back to burn consumers.We've lost five cents there in less than two weeks of measurement. It is essentially, the main reason we're looking at a rough three cents on everything.
Why the numbers are going up
Several reasons are being cited for the next round of increases that we are going to see, and probably will see, in the coming weeks.
The U.S dollars fall against other world currencies has led investors to drive up the cost of oil. While the U.S dollar is seen as a bad investment, they want to put money into other commodities like oil that have a little more security behind them. That’s another reason for the skyrocketing costs of gold. Even OPEC has discussed changing from the U.S dollar and that remains a bone of contention with some OPEC members who disagree with any future change in how oil is measured. Longtime enemies of the U.S, namely Iran and Venezuela, are soliciting for a change from the U.S measurement.
Other reasons for rising costs
. Continuing low refiner capacity. While there have been very modest builds in crude oil and gasoline inventories, there have been draw-downs on distillate inventories. Heating oil costs have risen as a result and the coming winter season has attracted investors there.
· Ongoing world violence. Kind of self explanatory but, we’ve been dealing with this problem for ages now. It’s still there and won’t go away. The problems remain in Northern Iraq remain and Turkey remains keyed to invade the region and pacify the Kurdish population. There remains a supply disruption possibility.
· No boost in OPEC production. OPEC announced last week that it had formally “lost control of pricing of oil product” but it would not be stepping up production of oil as it feels that the “market remains well supplied” with product. The markets reacted by trading up on oil.
Historic numbers
“At this same time last year, November 17/06, spot prices for heating and stove oils were recorded at 48.86 cents a litre. Gasoline spot was recorded at 47.39 cents a litre. This year those numbers are 66.10 cents for heating/stove and 62.53 cents for gasoline. That’s a 17 cent a litre disparity for heating/stove oils and 15 cents for gasoline. I don’t think I have to point out the implications of higher spots this year over last year.
Early summer forecast
“If we don’t see gasoline numbers come down before the spring hits, then we may see new record prices for gasoline again this coming summer. Add that to the fact that the U.S dollar is close to or, almost at par with the Canadian dollar, and we have a potential hit to our tourism industry. It’s going to be a little harder getting tourists from the U.S to drive up for a visit. Is there another tourism initiative in the works to help operators who will need the extra help in attracting visitors?
No announcement of rebate programs
“We’re still waiting for some kind of word from government on any heating rebate or retrofit programming for this year. While consumers are dealing with high pricing at an early stage of the season, those costs are reflective of last February. We still have a long time to go before we hit the winter peak in pricing. We need to make sure that all consumers are helped out with one of the most costly winters in recent memory. All Newfoundland and Labradorians, as well as Canadians, will be paying much higher prices this coming winter and all of them will need help.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Numbers show prices increasing
Prices well ahead of last year
News release
St. John’s, NL, October 23, 2007 – Increases in heating, stove oils as well as gasoline are to be expected in the coming days but, although the numbers in the increases are small, they are hiding an underlying truth; That consumers are continuing to be hurt by increasing prices.
“For twelve days out of a possible fourteen days, heating and stove oils are showing an increase of 9/10ths of a cent while gasoline is showing an increase of 1.2 cents a litre,” that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices. “It’s not a huge increase but it still is indicative of the prediction last week that we’ve hit the low point in spots and that prices would be moving up to the consumer.
“The numbers for this year are well ahead of last year. Heating and stove oil spot prices are now 12 cents a litre higher for the same time period while gasoline spots are that same 12 cents higher. The basic cost of heating and stove oils would now be unaffordable for lower income earners if it weren’t for one fact; the performance of the Canadian dollar. Consumers would be paying upwards of another 11 cents a litre more than what they are seeing now if the dollar had to hold the same value as last year. Any slide in the dollar now could cost the consumer this winter.
“The international situation remains volatile. If Turkey invades the Kurdish territories in Northern Iraq, we could see a disruption in crude supply. A lot of that comes to the US eastern seaboard, Eastern Canada and Europe. While there might be an ample supply right now, the promise of violence in a chief export area of Turkey may possibly turn into a worldwide supply disruption and that means rising pricing of all petroleum products. We still caution the consumer to fill the heating oil tanks in case we run into the world situation in the coming days.
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
gasprices@hotmail.com
Prices well ahead of last year
News release
St. John’s, NL, October 23, 2007 – Increases in heating, stove oils as well as gasoline are to be expected in the coming days but, although the numbers in the increases are small, they are hiding an underlying truth; That consumers are continuing to be hurt by increasing prices.
“For twelve days out of a possible fourteen days, heating and stove oils are showing an increase of 9/10ths of a cent while gasoline is showing an increase of 1.2 cents a litre,” that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices. “It’s not a huge increase but it still is indicative of the prediction last week that we’ve hit the low point in spots and that prices would be moving up to the consumer.
“The numbers for this year are well ahead of last year. Heating and stove oil spot prices are now 12 cents a litre higher for the same time period while gasoline spots are that same 12 cents higher. The basic cost of heating and stove oils would now be unaffordable for lower income earners if it weren’t for one fact; the performance of the Canadian dollar. Consumers would be paying upwards of another 11 cents a litre more than what they are seeing now if the dollar had to hold the same value as last year. Any slide in the dollar now could cost the consumer this winter.
“The international situation remains volatile. If Turkey invades the Kurdish territories in Northern Iraq, we could see a disruption in crude supply. A lot of that comes to the US eastern seaboard, Eastern Canada and Europe. While there might be an ample supply right now, the promise of violence in a chief export area of Turkey may possibly turn into a worldwide supply disruption and that means rising pricing of all petroleum products. We still caution the consumer to fill the heating oil tanks in case we run into the world situation in the coming days.
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Monday, October 15, 2007
Consider filling the home heating tank
International events warrant consumer warning
News release
St. John’s, Newfoundland, October 15, 2007 – International events are prompting a warning from the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices to fill the home heating oil tanks. George Murphy is sounding the alarm as ongoing violence is putting upwards pressure on pricing of all petroleum products.
“The last few days on the international scene is telling me that we have bottomed out on any further decreases in pricing of heating and stove oil product. Draws on inventory in the United States along with the threats of more violence in Turkey and northern Iraq have led to an increase in all distillate products over the last couple of business days. That news is grim as renewed violence in northern Iraq along the Turkish border could possibly disrupt oil exports to the coast of Turkey”, said Murphy.
“The port of Ceyhan, Turkey handles most Iraq exports that come from the north of Iraq. The Mediterranean town handles almost 1.6 million barrels in exports in a day to North America and Europe and, if that is disrupted because of any possible outbreak of violence in Northern Turkey and Iraq, then we may see a huge increase in oil pricing. That momentum is continuing on the markets today. If all-out war breaks out between Turkey and the Kurds of Northern Iraq, it may be a case of “force majeure” in the markets.
“While prices are not showing an increase at this time, the rise in spot pricing is noticeable today and any further increase in spots in the next few days because of further violence or draws on inventory, may possibly signal increases at the next adjustment period. That and the onset of colder weather will mean we have already bottomed out in pricing and we’re looking at an upswing and rise from here on.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
International events warrant consumer warning
News release
St. John’s, Newfoundland, October 15, 2007 – International events are prompting a warning from the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices to fill the home heating oil tanks. George Murphy is sounding the alarm as ongoing violence is putting upwards pressure on pricing of all petroleum products.
“The last few days on the international scene is telling me that we have bottomed out on any further decreases in pricing of heating and stove oil product. Draws on inventory in the United States along with the threats of more violence in Turkey and northern Iraq have led to an increase in all distillate products over the last couple of business days. That news is grim as renewed violence in northern Iraq along the Turkish border could possibly disrupt oil exports to the coast of Turkey”, said Murphy.
“The port of Ceyhan, Turkey handles most Iraq exports that come from the north of Iraq. The Mediterranean town handles almost 1.6 million barrels in exports in a day to North America and Europe and, if that is disrupted because of any possible outbreak of violence in Northern Turkey and Iraq, then we may see a huge increase in oil pricing. That momentum is continuing on the markets today. If all-out war breaks out between Turkey and the Kurds of Northern Iraq, it may be a case of “force majeure” in the markets.
“While prices are not showing an increase at this time, the rise in spot pricing is noticeable today and any further increase in spots in the next few days because of further violence or draws on inventory, may possibly signal increases at the next adjustment period. That and the onset of colder weather will mean we have already bottomed out in pricing and we’re looking at an upswing and rise from here on.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Heating oil continues to rise
Could be a long cold winter ahead
News release
St. John’s, NL, September 25, 2007- Consumers could face a long and cold winter this year if the Canadian dollar starts to falter in it’s rise against the US dollar. Heating oil spot prices are continuing to rise, in spite of gains that the Canadian dollar has made against the United States dollar, and that could prove to set the conditions for a long, cold winter for some, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
Canadian dollar parity
“I’ve been watching the rise of the Canadian dollar and, while it may be good that it has increased and capped the rise in spot prices, any slip in the dollar will cost Canadian consumers dearly. We’re already looking at record spot prices for heating and stove oils for this same time as other years. Heating and stove oil spots range some 7 cents a litre higher than last year. We have yet to get into refinery maintenance season when refineries shut down to switch over to production of heating oils and other distillates. That will cause a draw against available inventory and possibly increase the product in value.
Thursday’s price adjustments
“Heating and stove oils are predicted to rise by close to 1.65 cents a litre this Thursday as the Petroleum Pricing Office will set new pricing for all petroleum products and gasoline is predicted to increase by close on 7/10ths of a cent per litre. That’s with thirteen days out of a possible fourteen reporting. We’ll have the true numbers tomorrow but there are indicators of where these numbers will head this week.
The Labrador effect
“Another fear is that we may end up seeing Labrador consumers pay record amounts for heating oil if spot pricing remains high for the next month and pricing gets locked in for the winter because of ice conditions. Labradorians could be looking at record pricing for heat. Traditionally, the movement of ice affects the flow of product into that region and petroleum products pricing is frozen until the spring when shipping season to Labrador is started again.
Effects of the rising dollar on consumers
“Consumers should be fearful at this juncture of the dollars’ rise because any slippage will mean the meteoric rise in spot pricing for product. Just to give everyone the sense of what could happen: If we were dealing with the dollar at the level it was two years ago, we would be looking at close to a dollar a litre for heating oils. If there is any time that the government should be supporting the dollar, it is at this juncture. Any collapse in the dollar now would be economically devastating to the consumer.
Government and taxation
“For a long time now, consumers have expressed their feelings of taxation levels on heat and it is this direct measure that government can address the rising costs of heat through the removal of all taxes off a basic necessity of life. Heat itself, may quickly become a health concern for a lot of people this winter should the dollar fall in value or spot pricing continue to rise.”
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Could be a long cold winter ahead
News release
St. John’s, NL, September 25, 2007- Consumers could face a long and cold winter this year if the Canadian dollar starts to falter in it’s rise against the US dollar. Heating oil spot prices are continuing to rise, in spite of gains that the Canadian dollar has made against the United States dollar, and that could prove to set the conditions for a long, cold winter for some, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
Canadian dollar parity
“I’ve been watching the rise of the Canadian dollar and, while it may be good that it has increased and capped the rise in spot prices, any slip in the dollar will cost Canadian consumers dearly. We’re already looking at record spot prices for heating and stove oils for this same time as other years. Heating and stove oil spots range some 7 cents a litre higher than last year. We have yet to get into refinery maintenance season when refineries shut down to switch over to production of heating oils and other distillates. That will cause a draw against available inventory and possibly increase the product in value.
Thursday’s price adjustments
“Heating and stove oils are predicted to rise by close to 1.65 cents a litre this Thursday as the Petroleum Pricing Office will set new pricing for all petroleum products and gasoline is predicted to increase by close on 7/10ths of a cent per litre. That’s with thirteen days out of a possible fourteen reporting. We’ll have the true numbers tomorrow but there are indicators of where these numbers will head this week.
The Labrador effect
“Another fear is that we may end up seeing Labrador consumers pay record amounts for heating oil if spot pricing remains high for the next month and pricing gets locked in for the winter because of ice conditions. Labradorians could be looking at record pricing for heat. Traditionally, the movement of ice affects the flow of product into that region and petroleum products pricing is frozen until the spring when shipping season to Labrador is started again.
Effects of the rising dollar on consumers
“Consumers should be fearful at this juncture of the dollars’ rise because any slippage will mean the meteoric rise in spot pricing for product. Just to give everyone the sense of what could happen: If we were dealing with the dollar at the level it was two years ago, we would be looking at close to a dollar a litre for heating oils. If there is any time that the government should be supporting the dollar, it is at this juncture. Any collapse in the dollar now would be economically devastating to the consumer.
Government and taxation
“For a long time now, consumers have expressed their feelings of taxation levels on heat and it is this direct measure that government can address the rising costs of heat through the removal of all taxes off a basic necessity of life. Heat itself, may quickly become a health concern for a lot of people this winter should the dollar fall in value or spot pricing continue to rise.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
The ramifications of $100 a barrel oil
Consumers and industry will take a huge hit
News release
St. John’s, NL, September 19, 2007 – Rising oil prices will have detrimental effects on consumers and industry if oil prices hit the $100 per barrel mark by the New Year, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices.
“Already, I am noticing that heating oil pricing is 10 cents a litre higher than the same point last year and that could prove to be very costly to consumers this coming winter as pricing has continued to rise along with the price of a barrel of oil,” said Murphy. “If you haven’t heard of unaffordable heating oil pricing, it’s because we haven’t gotten into the winter heating season quite yet.”
“Spot pricing for all distillate fuels is up considerably and that could lead to higher transportation costs as we get further into the distillate season. We could become witness to increases in fuel costs to move goods and services and that means inflationary pricing to the average consumer. Market analysts are already predicting only a slight retreat in oil prices before we see $100 a barrel for oil. The oil industry will try to recoup those costs and that will mean higher pricing for all refined products including heating, stove, diesel and gasoline pricing.
“The only thing that is preventing a very sharp increase in pricing instead of the moderate increases we have been experiencing is the rise of the Canadian dollar against its US counterpart. If this were two years ago, we’d be looking at an added 25 cents onto these prices as they stand now. The ramifications of any slip in the Canadian dollar now are stark and staring at the consumer and industry too. A dollar a litre for heating fuel would be disastrous to the consumer out there.
Consumers and industry will take a huge hit
News release
St. John’s, NL, September 19, 2007 – Rising oil prices will have detrimental effects on consumers and industry if oil prices hit the $100 per barrel mark by the New Year, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices.
“Already, I am noticing that heating oil pricing is 10 cents a litre higher than the same point last year and that could prove to be very costly to consumers this coming winter as pricing has continued to rise along with the price of a barrel of oil,” said Murphy. “If you haven’t heard of unaffordable heating oil pricing, it’s because we haven’t gotten into the winter heating season quite yet.”
“Spot pricing for all distillate fuels is up considerably and that could lead to higher transportation costs as we get further into the distillate season. We could become witness to increases in fuel costs to move goods and services and that means inflationary pricing to the average consumer. Market analysts are already predicting only a slight retreat in oil prices before we see $100 a barrel for oil. The oil industry will try to recoup those costs and that will mean higher pricing for all refined products including heating, stove, diesel and gasoline pricing.
“The only thing that is preventing a very sharp increase in pricing instead of the moderate increases we have been experiencing is the rise of the Canadian dollar against its US counterpart. If this were two years ago, we’d be looking at an added 25 cents onto these prices as they stand now. The ramifications of any slip in the Canadian dollar now are stark and staring at the consumer and industry too. A dollar a litre for heating fuel would be disastrous to the consumer out there.
“Government, on both levels, is going to have to look at a complete removal of the tax on heat as a measure to keep consumers warm this winter. I don’t think it’s good enough to see rebate programs put in place to take care of just a few people. We all are going to have to pick up the rising costs for higher oil so, why not make it across the board and country-wide?. Rising oil pricing may be good for the government treasury but when do we get our share?
“The fact that there may be consumers out there who will not be able to afford heating fuels this winter is fast becoming both a growing health concern and a financial burden to a lot of families. Industry, particularly the transportation sectors and the Newfoundland and Labrador fishery, will have to be able to adapt and deal with rising fuel costs as well as high dollar value and transportation issues. The rising costs of oil to electrical companies that generate electricity by burning oil will also have to recoup costs from the consumer as well. What are the side-effects of that on the people of Labrador?
“The fact that there may be consumers out there who will not be able to afford heating fuels this winter is fast becoming both a growing health concern and a financial burden to a lot of families. Industry, particularly the transportation sectors and the Newfoundland and Labrador fishery, will have to be able to adapt and deal with rising fuel costs as well as high dollar value and transportation issues. The rising costs of oil to electrical companies that generate electricity by burning oil will also have to recoup costs from the consumer as well. What are the side-effects of that on the people of Labrador?
“It’s still a little early to predict where this winters heating/stove oil season will be going this year but, so far, it does not look good. With pricing for heating oils already ten cents a litre higher than the same time last year and the promise of a rising oil price, the ramifications are obvious. In spite of recent builds in distillate inventories ahead of refinery maintenance season, there is a distinct possibility this time around that we could see pricing well over last years numbers. The only thing that could stop what will happen is recession and, I’m thinking we’re close to the edge of that now.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Gasoline prices to stay steady
Heating and stove oils to increase
Heating and stove oils to increase
News release
St. John’s, NL, September 11, 2007 – Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will not see any major increase in gasoline pricing but users of heating and stove oils are advised to get ready for increases. The Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices is advising home owners and users of distillates like heating and stove oils to get ready for increases in their respective products.
“Gasoline numbers are showing a modest two tenths of a cent increase while heating and stove oil users will be looking at close to 2.3 cents a litre up this coming Thursday morning. Those numbers are with twelve out of fourteen available data days,” said George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“This is the time of year where the focus has switched from gasoline to users of distillates like heating and stove oils. Even jet fuels are showing added demand and that may add to future increases as that fuel is added as an antifreeze agent during winter months. We’re advising consumers to shop around this heating season. Some companies offer insurances and maintenance programs that rival other companies but pricing of heating and stove oils can vary greatly and that’s where the consumer can win big.
“Gasoline spots are showing a difference of eight cents a litre against last year while heating/stove oil numbers are six cents a litre higher. That could mean trouble if we don’t see a build in distillates before the weather turns colder. I think that consumers are probably a little more concerned with the costs of heat as heat is a health concern unlike gasoline.
***Note to readers: As of the 12th, I have numbers that show an allowable increase in heating and stove oils by 2.62 cents a litre while gasoline shows an allowable increase of 15/100ths of a cent, not including the tax component.That's based on 14 out of the possible 14 busines days that are available. Unknown as to why the Public Utilities Board numbers are so far out of whack with mine.
I'll still stand by mine however!
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Editors: Please note the change in contact information.
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/MemberConsumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Hurricane Dean spares the Gulf-So far
News release
St. John's, NL, August 21, 2007- Hurricane Dean has spared consumers in most areas the inconvenience of skyrocketting prices as it hit the Yucatan Peninsula earlier this morning. Early last week, projections from the National Hurricane center showed Dean making a direct track to the Gulf of Mexico and its crude production and refining facilities.
"We're lucky in some aspects here that Dean managed to turn to a more direct westerly direction rather than hit the chief production and refining centers on the Texas-Louisianna border. Last week showed a different scenario when Dean was foreecast to throw itself on the US gulf coast," said George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
"We expected that spot pricing would have risen to unbearable levels as they did with Katrina had the hurricane hit directly in the center of the gulf coast but that didn't happen. While some production on the Mexico side of the Gulf may occur, that shouldn't do anything major to gasoline pricing. We may likely see an increase to crude as overall Mexican production will be affected but that shouldn't bight into consumers pocketbooks.
"In Newfoundland and Labrador where pricing is regulated, numbers show only a 3 cent a litre allowable at the pump level and that is expected to moderate somewhat now that Dean has done a complete swing-around in direction.Already, spots have begun to decline again and the likelihood of any "early interruption" in pricing has passed with that. Four cents is needed for any interruption in pricing to occur and that's not going to happen now, according to the numbers I have.
"We're all just praying now that there is going to be no loss of life in Mexico as this brutal storm passes over the Yucatan Peninsula. Dean is forecast to regain some strength as it re-enters the Gulf sometime late today. Crude oil production has been halted at Cantarell, the worlds third largest field in the world as a result of Dean's track and some 14,000 oil workers have been evacuated."
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
(709)685-6186 cellular
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Something wicked this trading day comes
Guess what?..
While you slept last night, a concerted effort to increase spot pricing for gasoline occurred in the markets. Gasoline spots increased by more than 20 cents a US gallon.
That's about 5.5 cents a litre to Canadian consumers translated at the pumps.
Yes...Hurricane Syndrome has set in and there's not a darn thing to be done about it on this side of the border.
Consumers should now be aware that we have entered that "revered" time of the year where corporate rape of consumers occurs on a whim. Data from the National Hurricane Center in the US indicates today that tropical depression number four, soon to be named Dean if it reaches hurricane status, will likely become a tropical storm later today.
Consumers would be advised to keep the tanks filed up but practise conservation methods while these storms are around. When an actual storm is more than likely to damage any oil production or refining facility, the consumer is better off waiting the economic storm out and go with what they already have in the tank. Hoarding the stuff only caused undue grief to other consumers and sucessfully drives up the price of gasoline and someone besides youmakes a fortune.
So, while these storms are around this hurricane season, take some of this practcal advice and help take a financial bite out of the people who like to take a financial bite out of you. If a storm hits, you should have had full tanks already. Buying after the storm hits only puts bigger dollars out in the other fella's pockets.
Regards,
George Murphy
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Hold off at the pumps!
Numbers show prices will drop Thursday morning
Numbers show prices will drop Thursday morning
News release
Paradise, NL, July 24, 2007- OPEC is talking about increasing production and gasoline spot prices have continued to drop over the last week. This means a possible break at the pumps to consumers this coming Thursday, according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
Expect a drop
“My numbers are showing that for six days out of seven needed for the interrupter formula to kick in so far; pricing is forecast to drop by 4.2 cents per litre on gasoline inclusive of taxes. No drop to other fuels is expected according to my records. To use the interrupter formula to increase or lower prices, we need to see a movement of four cents either way in the markets over seven days, not inclusive of taxes. My numbers show a 3.7 cent a litre drop and that’s within my margin of error of 3/10ths of a cent so, I’m calling the shot on this one. It’s the break to consumers that we’ve been expecting and initially told of last week when pricing was last adjusted. Tuesday’s trading day remains key if we are to see that drop but, gasoline is again trading down today. Expect a break Thursday morning. If it doesn’t, it’s a certainty that we’ll see a drop in prices next wee,” said Murphy.
Refineries pick up output
“Refiner capacity is showing increased growth and inventories are substantial enough now that, at this juncture of the driving season, concerns should be coming off that fuel and its consumption level. Forecasters of this weeks inventory report expect an increase in refiner capacity and that means more product out there on the markets. If that happens, the drops may keep coming barring any unforeseen circumstance like terrorism or hurricanes. I believe that last week was also key when we passed the half-way point of the summer driving season and there wasn’t a huge impact on overall gasoline inventory.
OPEC to pick up production?
“OPEC has expressed some concern over the high price of crude recently and that has sparked a slight sell-off in the markets as traders look at a possible OPEC production increase. That should bring some relief to heating oil users as the heavy oils that OPEC sells the most of, is directly linked to the heavier type fuels like jet, heating and stove oils. If they increase output, then we may see some upwards pressure taken off those fuels. We still haven’t seen those prices drop as we did in other summer seasons. OPEC members will meet, ironically, September 11th in Vienna, Austria.
Hurricane Syndrome remains a factor
Still lurking in the markets is the simple fact that we have gone almost halfway through the Atlantic hurricane season and we still have no hurricanes in our midst. Memories linger with all consumers when prices hit their epoch on Canada and elsewhere as almost 10 per cent of United States production and refining was affected. Traders will no doubt wing prices higher to consumers if hurricanes are forecast to hit any coastal region where production may be affected. While pricing will be pointing down in the next little while as driving season wanes, expect those same traders to use “Hurricane Syndrome” as an excuse to increase pricing at the pumps at anytime.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Paradise, NL, July 24, 2007- OPEC is talking about increasing production and gasoline spot prices have continued to drop over the last week. This means a possible break at the pumps to consumers this coming Thursday, according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
Expect a drop
“My numbers are showing that for six days out of seven needed for the interrupter formula to kick in so far; pricing is forecast to drop by 4.2 cents per litre on gasoline inclusive of taxes. No drop to other fuels is expected according to my records. To use the interrupter formula to increase or lower prices, we need to see a movement of four cents either way in the markets over seven days, not inclusive of taxes. My numbers show a 3.7 cent a litre drop and that’s within my margin of error of 3/10ths of a cent so, I’m calling the shot on this one. It’s the break to consumers that we’ve been expecting and initially told of last week when pricing was last adjusted. Tuesday’s trading day remains key if we are to see that drop but, gasoline is again trading down today. Expect a break Thursday morning. If it doesn’t, it’s a certainty that we’ll see a drop in prices next wee,” said Murphy.
Refineries pick up output
“Refiner capacity is showing increased growth and inventories are substantial enough now that, at this juncture of the driving season, concerns should be coming off that fuel and its consumption level. Forecasters of this weeks inventory report expect an increase in refiner capacity and that means more product out there on the markets. If that happens, the drops may keep coming barring any unforeseen circumstance like terrorism or hurricanes. I believe that last week was also key when we passed the half-way point of the summer driving season and there wasn’t a huge impact on overall gasoline inventory.
OPEC to pick up production?
“OPEC has expressed some concern over the high price of crude recently and that has sparked a slight sell-off in the markets as traders look at a possible OPEC production increase. That should bring some relief to heating oil users as the heavy oils that OPEC sells the most of, is directly linked to the heavier type fuels like jet, heating and stove oils. If they increase output, then we may see some upwards pressure taken off those fuels. We still haven’t seen those prices drop as we did in other summer seasons. OPEC members will meet, ironically, September 11th in Vienna, Austria.
Hurricane Syndrome remains a factor
Still lurking in the markets is the simple fact that we have gone almost halfway through the Atlantic hurricane season and we still have no hurricanes in our midst. Memories linger with all consumers when prices hit their epoch on Canada and elsewhere as almost 10 per cent of United States production and refining was affected. Traders will no doubt wing prices higher to consumers if hurricanes are forecast to hit any coastal region where production may be affected. While pricing will be pointing down in the next little while as driving season wanes, expect those same traders to use “Hurricane Syndrome” as an excuse to increase pricing at the pumps at anytime.”
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For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Crossing the threshold
Gasoline to drop slightly as mid-summer passes
News release
Paradise, NL, July 17, 2007- Gasoline prices are set to drop slightly this coming Thursday as market trading showed slight decreases in spot pricing for the past two weeks, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
Coming drops in pricing
“After 13 days out of a possible 14 days recorded, numbers are showing that gasoline should drop by 8/10ths of a cent per litre. Stove and heating oils are showing only a minimal change of 34/100ths downwards and that should be a concern as distillate demand remains strong ahead of winter, particularly for diesel. We’ve hit the balancing point in the markets where, I believe that traders will soon change focus on what fuel is going to be more valuable at the end of the driving season. My belief is that the focus will turn to the distillates shortly,” said Murphy.
Market traders deserve scrutiny
“Looks like we’ve hit mid-summer and surely to God, the market traders south of the border have to realize that fact. The focus has to come off gasoline as the summer driving season wanes. We haven’t seen further degrading of gasoline inventories and any drawdown shouldn’t adversely affect the rest of the driving season. If the markets don’t tune to this fact shortly, then consumers should be upset and the governments that look after us should be as well.
Pricing to moderate some
“We dodged a very big bullet this time around on pricing. While we did see a new record with gasoline pricing, I believe that there has to be a turnaround happening shortly. The last two market trading days may be a signal of more to come as regards to a downwards trend but there are still some important factors that remain for consumers to contend with.
Iran and its pursuit of a nuclear program against the threats of United Nations sanctioning, Nigeria, and the ongoing situation in Iraq still remain as key factors.
Also in the wings is a threat of a production interruption in oil fields in the North Sea that hit Brent crudes hard this week.
Hurricane threat remains
“Still to play out in the markets this summer however, is what I like to call “Hurricane Syndrome”. That’s where the markets have the tendency to “panic” when they see a storm brewing a thousand miles away from unloading and processing facilities. No doubt the consumers’ interests will be tested by traders who stand to make a heavy dollar on that speculation.
We’re asking our governments to keep a watchful eye to the markets while hurricane season is upon us and get proof of the rip-off the consumers have to contend with at this time of the year. We’re not out of the woods there but concerns over available inventory to carry consumers through the heavy summer driving season should be dissipating and be reflected in pricing to the consumer.
-30-
Note: When I sent this one out, I didn't have the pivotal fourteenth day. With that day included, gasoline now shows a drop of somewhere around 1.3 a litre while stove and heating will drop by 49/100ths of a cent.
From the looks of the markets, if this down trend continues, expect to see early interruption next week. Numbers traded down almost 5.4 cents a litre not including taxes for yesterday, July 17th.
Here's hoping!...
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/MemberConsumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Gasoline to drop slightly as mid-summer passes
News release
Paradise, NL, July 17, 2007- Gasoline prices are set to drop slightly this coming Thursday as market trading showed slight decreases in spot pricing for the past two weeks, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
Coming drops in pricing
“After 13 days out of a possible 14 days recorded, numbers are showing that gasoline should drop by 8/10ths of a cent per litre. Stove and heating oils are showing only a minimal change of 34/100ths downwards and that should be a concern as distillate demand remains strong ahead of winter, particularly for diesel. We’ve hit the balancing point in the markets where, I believe that traders will soon change focus on what fuel is going to be more valuable at the end of the driving season. My belief is that the focus will turn to the distillates shortly,” said Murphy.
Market traders deserve scrutiny
“Looks like we’ve hit mid-summer and surely to God, the market traders south of the border have to realize that fact. The focus has to come off gasoline as the summer driving season wanes. We haven’t seen further degrading of gasoline inventories and any drawdown shouldn’t adversely affect the rest of the driving season. If the markets don’t tune to this fact shortly, then consumers should be upset and the governments that look after us should be as well.
Pricing to moderate some
“We dodged a very big bullet this time around on pricing. While we did see a new record with gasoline pricing, I believe that there has to be a turnaround happening shortly. The last two market trading days may be a signal of more to come as regards to a downwards trend but there are still some important factors that remain for consumers to contend with.
Iran and its pursuit of a nuclear program against the threats of United Nations sanctioning, Nigeria, and the ongoing situation in Iraq still remain as key factors.
Also in the wings is a threat of a production interruption in oil fields in the North Sea that hit Brent crudes hard this week.
Hurricane threat remains
“Still to play out in the markets this summer however, is what I like to call “Hurricane Syndrome”. That’s where the markets have the tendency to “panic” when they see a storm brewing a thousand miles away from unloading and processing facilities. No doubt the consumers’ interests will be tested by traders who stand to make a heavy dollar on that speculation.
We’re asking our governments to keep a watchful eye to the markets while hurricane season is upon us and get proof of the rip-off the consumers have to contend with at this time of the year. We’re not out of the woods there but concerns over available inventory to carry consumers through the heavy summer driving season should be dissipating and be reflected in pricing to the consumer.
-30-
Note: When I sent this one out, I didn't have the pivotal fourteenth day. With that day included, gasoline now shows a drop of somewhere around 1.3 a litre while stove and heating will drop by 49/100ths of a cent.
From the looks of the markets, if this down trend continues, expect to see early interruption next week. Numbers traded down almost 5.4 cents a litre not including taxes for yesterday, July 17th.
Here's hoping!...
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/MemberConsumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Crossing the threshold
Gasoline to drop slightly as mid-summer passes
News release
Paradise, NL, July 17, 2007- Gasoline prices are set to drop slightly this coming Thursday as market trading showed slight decreases in spot pricing for the past two weeks, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
Coming drops in pricing
“After 13 days out of a possible 14 days recorded, numbers are showing that gasoline should drop by 8/10ths of a cent per litre. Stove and heating oils are showing only a minimal change of 34/100ths downwards and that should be a concern as distillate demand remains strong ahead of winter, particularly for diesel. We’ve hit the balancing point in the markets where, I believe that traders will soon change focus on what fuel is going to be more valuable at the end of the driving season. My belief is that the focus will turn to the distillates shortly,” said Murphy.
Market traders deserve scrutiny
“Looks like we’ve hit mid-summer and surely to God, the market traders south of the border have to realize that fact. The focus has to come off gasoline as the summer driving season wanes. We haven’t seen further degrading of gasoline inventories and any drawdown shouldn’t adversely affect the rest of the driving season. If the markets don’t tune to this fact shortly, then consumers should be upset and the governments that look after us should be as well.
Pricing to moderate some
“We dodged a very big bullet this time around on pricing. While we did see a new record with gasoline pricing, I believe that there has to be a turnaround happening shortly. The last two market trading days may be a signal of more to come as regards to a downwards trend but there are still some important factors that remain for consumers to contend with.
Iran and its pursuit of a nuclear program against the threats of United Nations sanctioning, Nigeria, and the ongoing situation in Iraq still remain as key factors.
Also in the wings is a threat of a production interruption in oil fields in the North Sea that hit Brent crudes hard this week.
Hurricane threat remains
“Still to play out in the markets this summer however, is what I like to call “Hurricane Syndrome”. That’s where the markets have the tendency to “panic” when they see a storm brewing a thousand miles away from unloading and processing facilities. No doubt the consumers’ interests will be tested by traders who stand to make a heavy dollar on that speculation.
We’re asking our governments to keep a watchful eye to the markets while hurricane season is upon us and get proof of the rip-off the consumers have to contend with at this time of the year. We’re not out of the woods there but concerns over available inventory to carry consumers through the heavy summer driving season should be dissipating and be reflected in pricing to the consumer.
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Gasoline to drop slightly as mid-summer passes
News release
Paradise, NL, July 17, 2007- Gasoline prices are set to drop slightly this coming Thursday as market trading showed slight decreases in spot pricing for the past two weeks, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
Coming drops in pricing
“After 13 days out of a possible 14 days recorded, numbers are showing that gasoline should drop by 8/10ths of a cent per litre. Stove and heating oils are showing only a minimal change of 34/100ths downwards and that should be a concern as distillate demand remains strong ahead of winter, particularly for diesel. We’ve hit the balancing point in the markets where, I believe that traders will soon change focus on what fuel is going to be more valuable at the end of the driving season. My belief is that the focus will turn to the distillates shortly,” said Murphy.
Market traders deserve scrutiny
“Looks like we’ve hit mid-summer and surely to God, the market traders south of the border have to realize that fact. The focus has to come off gasoline as the summer driving season wanes. We haven’t seen further degrading of gasoline inventories and any drawdown shouldn’t adversely affect the rest of the driving season. If the markets don’t tune to this fact shortly, then consumers should be upset and the governments that look after us should be as well.
Pricing to moderate some
“We dodged a very big bullet this time around on pricing. While we did see a new record with gasoline pricing, I believe that there has to be a turnaround happening shortly. The last two market trading days may be a signal of more to come as regards to a downwards trend but there are still some important factors that remain for consumers to contend with.
Iran and its pursuit of a nuclear program against the threats of United Nations sanctioning, Nigeria, and the ongoing situation in Iraq still remain as key factors.
Also in the wings is a threat of a production interruption in oil fields in the North Sea that hit Brent crudes hard this week.
Hurricane threat remains
“Still to play out in the markets this summer however, is what I like to call “Hurricane Syndrome”. That’s where the markets have the tendency to “panic” when they see a storm brewing a thousand miles away from unloading and processing facilities. No doubt the consumers’ interests will be tested by traders who stand to make a heavy dollar on that speculation.
We’re asking our governments to keep a watchful eye to the markets while hurricane season is upon us and get proof of the rip-off the consumers have to contend with at this time of the year. We’re not out of the woods there but concerns over available inventory to carry consumers through the heavy summer driving season should be dissipating and be reflected in pricing to the consumer.
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
More increases on the way
Gasoline, stove and heating oil pricing to increase Thursday
News release
Paradise, NL, July 3, 2007- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will get tagged with another round of increases this week as demand for gasoline and diesel fuels pick up for the summer driving season.
“Consumers can expect to see an added 2.2 cents per litre on gasoline and an added 2.92 cents per litre on stove and heating oils. That’s with 13 days out of a possible 14 days to report from. I don’t expect too much change from those numbers after today’s market trading,” said George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“A drop in gasoline inventories along with a drop in refiner capacity has complicated the pricing problem, but what was totally unexpected is the fact that stove and heating oil users will be looking at a considerable increase at the pumps this week. This is the time of year when we see those expected builds in distillate inventories. Last weeks numbers from the Energy Information Administration in the United States showed a considerable drawdown on stocks.
“We’re roughly at a level we were last year on both fuels. My records indicate that the next two weeks will be critical in seeing pricing stay at its present level. Last year saw a rapid increase in spot pricing of gasoline immediately following the July 1st and July 4th celebrations in Canada and the United States. That’s when the heat comes on gasoline spots and people start vacations. If we hear of increases in refinery capacity and its associated pickup in production of gasoline, we could dodge another increase, but right now that’s up in the air. We’ve already hit that range of $1.22 to $1.31 a litre and we could easily hit it again.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Gasoline, stove and heating oil pricing to increase Thursday
News release
Paradise, NL, July 3, 2007- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will get tagged with another round of increases this week as demand for gasoline and diesel fuels pick up for the summer driving season.
“Consumers can expect to see an added 2.2 cents per litre on gasoline and an added 2.92 cents per litre on stove and heating oils. That’s with 13 days out of a possible 14 days to report from. I don’t expect too much change from those numbers after today’s market trading,” said George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“A drop in gasoline inventories along with a drop in refiner capacity has complicated the pricing problem, but what was totally unexpected is the fact that stove and heating oil users will be looking at a considerable increase at the pumps this week. This is the time of year when we see those expected builds in distillate inventories. Last weeks numbers from the Energy Information Administration in the United States showed a considerable drawdown on stocks.
“We’re roughly at a level we were last year on both fuels. My records indicate that the next two weeks will be critical in seeing pricing stay at its present level. Last year saw a rapid increase in spot pricing of gasoline immediately following the July 1st and July 4th celebrations in Canada and the United States. That’s when the heat comes on gasoline spots and people start vacations. If we hear of increases in refinery capacity and its associated pickup in production of gasoline, we could dodge another increase, but right now that’s up in the air. We’ve already hit that range of $1.22 to $1.31 a litre and we could easily hit it again.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Gasoline prices to drop
Drop in refiner capacity makes consumers pay
News release
Paradise, NL, June 19, 2007- Gasoline will come a little cheaper for consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador this week as prices are forecast to drop by a rough 3.3 cents a litre with 13 days out of 14 to report from, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices. Heating and stove oils are showing an increase of close to 6/10ths of a cent over the same time period.
“A look at the numbers from last weeks inventory data shows that Big Oil is making consumers pay for their past folly. We’ve seen Big Oil pay out big money to shareholders rather than make the strategic investments in refineries maintenance. Every time we see a refinery outage, we see the fruits of that. If refiner capacity drops against consumer demand, they still win,” said Murphy.
“Right now, Big Oil is heavily dependent upon foreign imports of refined product. That will be a strategic mistake to the consumer if demand picks up in other centres where this refined product is coming from. If the markets lose these imports to the North American market, we could see some sharp rises in pricing to the consumer. Because they’re not refining enough to keep up with demand and relying heavily on imports, we’ve effectively seen the creation of a ‘house of cards’ on the markets that the consumer could end up paying for in the end.
“Refinery capacity dropped in an Energy Information Administration report from last week. Numbers last week showed that capacity dropped in the gasoline demand period to fall to 89.2 per cent. While the same report showed a very modest growth in gasoline inventory, the numbers remained very bullish to traders. Numbers for the rest of the regulation period started to trade up again erasing some of last weeks predicted five cent drop at the pumps that should have happened.
“What is odd with the increase on heating and stove oils is that demand for distillates has increased over the same period last year. I’m still worried that there is going to be a sustained increase in heating and stove oils this winter if Big Oil doesn’t address refining problems. We’re still not seeing big increases in inventories of that fuel group, nor are we seeing drops in the cost price of those fuels. Spots are a rough two cents over what they were for the same timeframe last year.”
“People should be concerned that numbers for heating and stove oils aren’t backing down the way they normally would. This is the time of year that we’ve seen those figures back down but they aren’t. If this keeps up and nothing changes, we’ll be back into relief programs for those who can’t afford to pay for heat again and governments will be forced to act in response to Big Oil’s folly. We’re getting too dependent upon foreign imports to catch us when the markets are failing us.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Standing by my numbers
Prices should have dropped to consumers-PPO needs to explain
News release
Paradise, NL, June 14, 2007- “Pricing to consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador should have come down and the Petroleum Pricing Office needs to explain why they never,” according to George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices.
“I know my numbers were solid this time around. Numbers from the markets after weekend trading showed a solid 4.37 cents a litre down (5.0/Litre taxes in) and they held that trend right up to Tuesday trading close. Markets showed a 5.1 cent a litre drop coming then. I know my numbers were right and I’ll stand by them. Consumers should be looking at five cents a litre down this morning but they aren’t. My numbers fall well within the requirement of four cents a litre up or down in movement for the interrupter formula to work,” said Murphy.
“Other centers like Nova Scotia and New Brunswick saw pricing drop well below what we have here and that’s now all out of sync. Traditionally, what I have noticed was that we would follow in price drops and be close to what pricing would be in those provinces. If they’re using New York Mercantile Exchange numbers, then there is something wrong here. All three of my sources can’t be wrong.
“The last three price changes were just about dead on. Two weeks ago showed they were dead accurate while last week’s price change was out by 2/10ths of a cent. I work on a margin of error of 3/10ths. My numbers exceeded that this week, enough to show interruption and that resulted in the predicted drop coming at the pumps. Rather than miss this one by three tenths, I must have missed this one by a couple of extra hundredths. Frankly, I’m disappointed that the companies just didn’t drop prices ahead of schedule while the impetus is there. If there is any good news it’s that we’re still on track for a 5.1 cent a litre drop next week with eight days out of a possible 14 recorded.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Go light on the golden stuff
Gasoline to drop this coming Thursday if the numbers hold today
News release
Paradise, NL, June 12, 2007- Unless there is a drastic increase in the price of gasoline in the markets today, it is likely that consumers will catch another break at the pumps as the Petroleum Pricing Office will have to use their interrupter formula, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“Good builds in gasoline inventories over the past three weeks have taken some of the early worries on high summer pricing out of the markets, at least for this week and that is going to translate into a five cent drop at the pumps this coming Thursday morning if the numbers hold so, word here is ‘go light on the gold stuff’,” Murphy said.
“This interruption will bring our spot pricing average down towards the 60 cent a litre basic cost price for gasoline. Gasoline pricing in the markets will have to trade at 65 cents a litre today for any decrease not to happen. This decrease is representative of what Big Oil has seen in the markets; consumers hitting that brick wall on pricing. Demand didn’t show any strong increase to match what was being added to inventories. Demand numbers showed a 1.5 per cent increase against last years’ numbers, a number that showed some weakening against the inventory build.
“While we have already hit a new all-time record on pricing, it doesn’t mean that we’ll see continued drops in pricing. We could see a reversal of this downwards trend as people start their summer vacations. We’re not ready to ease back on warnings of record pricing this summer quite yet although any continued build in inventories would be of benefit to the consumer. If prices drop this week, it would bring pricing down to levels last seen a year ago. That still is reflective of the predicted pricing range that we’ve hit once already.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
(709)782-8053
(709)685-6186 cellular
Gasoline to drop this coming Thursday if the numbers hold today
News release
Paradise, NL, June 12, 2007- Unless there is a drastic increase in the price of gasoline in the markets today, it is likely that consumers will catch another break at the pumps as the Petroleum Pricing Office will have to use their interrupter formula, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
“Good builds in gasoline inventories over the past three weeks have taken some of the early worries on high summer pricing out of the markets, at least for this week and that is going to translate into a five cent drop at the pumps this coming Thursday morning if the numbers hold so, word here is ‘go light on the gold stuff’,” Murphy said.
“This interruption will bring our spot pricing average down towards the 60 cent a litre basic cost price for gasoline. Gasoline pricing in the markets will have to trade at 65 cents a litre today for any decrease not to happen. This decrease is representative of what Big Oil has seen in the markets; consumers hitting that brick wall on pricing. Demand didn’t show any strong increase to match what was being added to inventories. Demand numbers showed a 1.5 per cent increase against last years’ numbers, a number that showed some weakening against the inventory build.
“While we have already hit a new all-time record on pricing, it doesn’t mean that we’ll see continued drops in pricing. We could see a reversal of this downwards trend as people start their summer vacations. We’re not ready to ease back on warnings of record pricing this summer quite yet although any continued build in inventories would be of benefit to the consumer. If prices drop this week, it would bring pricing down to levels last seen a year ago. That still is reflective of the predicted pricing range that we’ve hit once already.”
-30-
For more information, contact;
George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
(709)782-8053
(709)685-6186 cellular
Saturday, June 09, 2007
This could get interesting...
Gasoline to drop...Again?...
Call it what you will, but the fact that U.S interest rates are on the rise just might be of benefit to consumers here in Newfoundland and Labrador this week and possibly other gasoline users in other provinces.
Why?
U.S interest rates are rising because demand for some consumables is dropping. If that happens, as in all likelihood they are, then it may be a sign that inflation is increasing. If that is so, then watchers are predicting a drop in demand of petroleum products.
Of course, a good build in gasoline inventories this week also did its little part in bringing this about.
So far, with five out of a possible seven days data available, it looks like Newfoundland and Labrador consumers are looking at a possible drop at the pumps of a nickel. Could be more than that if Monday and Tuesdays' trading days also figure lower.
Be warned of a possible price drop this week...That's a change isn't it?...
Thought so.
Go light on the liquid gold for now. I'll have more in a release sometime on Tuesday to all the media in our neck of the woods.
Regards,
George
Saturday, June 02, 2007
Still pointing "down"
After twelve days out of a possible 14, gasoline pricing is still projected to show a modest drop to Newfoundland and Labrador consumers.
A moderately good inventory report from the Energy Information Administration in the United States this week shows that, while refiner capacity may not have increased, inventories of gasoline showed a slight increase for the second week in a row. Hopefully, this coming Wednesday's report will show a third consecutive.
A "brick wall" has been hit this last couple of weks it seems. Maybe consumers are finally getting the conservation message and maybe they've come to realize that the prices they were seeing at the pumps simply weren't justified under any conditions.
What you did see the past couple of weeks was the realisation that inventory shortfalls and refiner capacity have come into question and they both remain as proof of the oil companies will to manipulate supply and demand. Because they've cut back on the number of operating refineries, they can't produce what the market needs. Because they didn't sink money into refinery maintenance, any shutdown only added to the upwards spurt in gasoline and heating oil spot prices.
Either way, for Big Oil, it's "win-win".
Anyways, if you're in Newfoundland and Labrador, so far we're looking at 3.8 cents a litre down at the pumps with two business days to go. Heating oils and stove oils both show a rough half cent down.
Here's hopin'!...
Regards,
George
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