Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Ok Big Oil...This isn't funny anymore!



Consumers to take another hit at the pumps
Heating rises for the fifth week in a row

Media release

St. John’s, NL, July 16, 2013- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see another jump in prices at the pumps when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices this week. That news from George Murphy, researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Heating up again
“This latest expectation of another increase really hurts the consumer. We’re looking at another increase to heating oil, which miniscule, still adds to a high heating price starting point when, traditionally, heating prices have been dropping. It could be a very cold winter for some out there.” Murphy said.

Gasoline up to another high
“To add to the consumer, add another increase to consumer gas prices which have reached the second highest level since 2008 when oil prices hit a record $147 US  a barrel before the late July collapse in prices that year. Consumers could be looking at another 4.6 cents a litre at the pumps when they wake up on Thursday morning.”

In the numbers
Here’s what to expect with the Thursday morning price change:
·         Heating and stove oils are expected to increase by 23/100ths of a cent a litre.
·         Diesel shows a drop of just 1/10th of a cent. No change here with my margin of error of three tenths of a cent on a litre.
·         Regular gasoline shows an added 4.6 cents a litre, and…
·         The reformulated gasoline blend shows an added 6.3 cents a litre at the pumps.

Not fair to consumers
“ in spite of another record drop in oil inventories, we’re still at record levels of oil inventory on hand. What really plays into the latest increase falls back on the massive draw-down in inventories last week, matched with a high refiner capacity number that saw almost ninety three per cent of refiner capacity taken up. That is a signal of increasing demand from consumers, and until we see demand drop, we won’t see any relief at the pumps unless inventories of oil and gasoline increase again. That seems to be the word on the street.
What we’re not hearing from Wall Street is the effect of these high prices on consumers that can send any economic recovery into a tailspin. They remain ignorant of the facts that we simply can’t afford high prices. That should be making investors retreat from oil, but they’re not…yet.”

 Prices rising
Here’s more…for the various changes for roughly the same week all back to 2007:
July 19/12 …$1.31.6/Lt
July 14/11…$1.33.1/Lt
July 15/10…$1.08.5/Lt
July 16/09…$1.05.4/Lt
July 17/08…$1.49.3/Lt
July 19/07…$1.16.4/Lt

Chinese GDP less than expected

It will prove to be a sore test for the government of China in getting gross domestic product up again to world expectations in the next little while as GDP has not kept up with falling demand for Chinese products. What may help China in the long run may be expectations of a world economy that shows signs of picking up speed before government makes any moves to improve its own economic output, and that’s where Chinese challenges lay. Before government there makes any moves, the changing dynamic of the world economy may make it easier for the Chinese government to be “hands off” for now, before it may make any rash decisions like increase interest rates that may slow things down further. It’s “wait and see” on the Chinese economy and for any further increases in oil prices for now. Gauge that with an increase to other worldwide consumer spending, and we may not be out of the woods yet. Will Chinese manufacturing keep up with a world economy picking up steam?

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Researcher
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, July 09, 2013

All data is in. Final numbers for Thursday, July 11, 2013

Increases on the way



Hi to all,

                For the first time in a long time, consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia will see a substantial hike at the pumps when their respective petroleum regulation authorities move to adjust prices this week.

                Here’s what I have for price changes for this Thursday, covering Newfoundland and Labrador as well as New Brunswick:

·         Heating and stove oils are showing an added 3.15 cents a litre.
·         Diesel is also showing up, this time by 3.4 cents a litre.
·         Regular unleaded gasoline shows an added 5.1 cents a litre upwards, and…
·         Reformulated gasoline also shows an added 4.7 cents a litre.

Nova Scotia consumers will see another day of market activity before the final numbers come in, but they won’t be too far off what I have here. The writing is on the wall…

Market highlights
·         Turmoil in Egypt and the threat to shipping of crude oil through the Suez Canal, causing a possible supply disruption. 2.5 million barrels a day flow through the Canal on any given day, so, while the political instability remains, the threat of a shut-down of the canal could disrupt supplies to the markets.
·         A lower Canadian dollar trading against its US counterpart remains a factor. The exchange rate is important in figuring out price changes. As an example, a “at par” dollar would have saved consumers 4 cents a litre in yesterday’s trading alone! We would be talking an overall increase in gasoline prices by just a penny simply with this math, and not a 5.1 cent a litre increase at the pumps.
·         US economy picking up a little steam this week. A good jobs number got them all in a buying mood, and that they did this week!
·         US inventories took a huge beating last Wednesday. Crude inventories fell by 10.3 million barrels while gasoline inventories took a hit, being down by 1.7 million barrels on the week.

A different link
                Bookmark this link. You may need it when the next hurricane hits! It’s a unique link to the US Energy Information Administration’s “real time” Storm Information Center that will give you an interactive map of hurricanes and their track on important US refining and production facilities. Tracks of the storm in the Atlantic (Chantel), and it’s possible impact on refining and production infrastructure is up and running right now.
                http://www.eia.gov/special/disruptions/

Rail shipments to drop in light of Quebec accident?      
                Not likely…
                While the accident in Quebec may speak to a possible hazard in shipping crude oil by rail, it’s not likely that you will see a drop in crude oil shipments by rail anytime soon. Rail shipments are the desired mode of transportation of crude oil from the US shale regions like Bakken and Eagle ford because they are so cost-effective. The second reason is that most of these shipments come from producing shale regions that may not have a big life behind their production. Producers like the fact that, even though a well may produce for two years’ worth of light oil, they don’t have to invest in huge infrastructure like pipelines to get their crude to markets elsewhere. Each car, by the way, holds about 500 barrels of crude oil. According to the American Railroad Association, there were 9500 carloads of crude oil shipped in 2008, but last year saw a whopping 233,811 carloads of crude go to market via railcar. It’s an astronomical number and tells well of how US domestic oil production has climbed in recent years!
                The most that this accident will do is force governments to put in more stringent shipping regulations and move transportation costs up slightly.
                As well, at this time, I would like to express my condolences to the families of those lost in this horrific disaster…

                That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Researcher
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Newfoundland, Labrador, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick! A heads up...

Price change for Thursday, July 11, 2013

Six days out of seven days available right now show the promise of a substantial increase to pump prices is on the way.

Here's what I have so far, with just one day of data left to get:

  • Heating and stove oils show an added 3.13 cents a litre.
  • Diesel shows an added 3.4 cents a litre.
  • Regular gasoline shows an added 4.9 cents a litre, and...
  • The reformulated blend shows an added 4.1 cents a litre.
Blame a few things here this week around. You can point the finger to the possibility of a supply disruption as a result of the situation in Egypt, a falling Canadian dollar against the US greenback, or some slight improvement in the US economy, but, either way, we're going to pay for it this week!

I'll have the final numbers later tonight after the markets close.

You might want to pass this around to everyone else on your emailing list.

Regards,

George

Tuesday, July 02, 2013

Numbers for Thursday, July 4, 2013



Of roads, ruts and re-investment

Hi to all,

First off...
Sorry about missing posting last week. I was out of cell and internet range!

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:
·         Heating and stove oils to increase by 1.03 cents per litre.
·         Diesel to increase by 1.2 cents per litre
·         Regular gasoline to decrease by 1.3 cents per litre, and…
·         Reformulated blend show just a 1/10th of a cent decrease

Market highlights

·         The Canadian dollar continues to lose value against its US counterpart. The Canuck buck now is almost five cents less than the US greenback, losing almost four cents against the US dollar in the last two weeks.
·         US Energy Information Administration inventory report last week indicated a zero gain/loss in oil inventories, while gasoline inventories reported a gain of 3.7 million barrels. Distillate supplies also increased.
·         Halifax’s Imperial refinery is set to close and that may put supply at risk. Ready for more reciprocal sales arrangements where Big Oil shares supply? Not good for consumers in unregulated markets!

While I’m at it…

            While some media have been reporting that the number of tires stored in Argentia are getting smaller, are we throwing away an opportunity to recycle these tires in a better fashion? Burning them doesn’t seem to be a great “end use” of something that consumers are paying recycling fees for, and besides that, we, as taxpayers, are also sending them to Quebec at our expense. I think government estimated some $6 million to ship them out of province.
            Some time ago, government announced that they would send them to Quebec where I believe they are used to fuel a concrete plant in that province. Is that a great way to recycle, or do we expect more for our recycling dollar? I mean, do you, as a consumer paying recycling fees, expect a better use out of a product that you want to see recycled?
            Again I started reading up on the topic, and I keep asking myself why other jurisdictions come to better uses for recycling of tires than we have here. I keep reading about the costs savings for road construction and maintenance and the rising cost of asphalt for new roads. I keep reading about cost savings that the addition of recycled tires can bring to my own province, which brings me to why we are shipping them out when we have so much of a need for ongoing road construction and maintenance.
            God knows they could use an experiment on rubber asphalt concrete (RAC) roads in Labrador and along the coast, and what a bang we could have with our buck!
Call it an investment!

That’s it for now!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Numbers for Thursday, June 20, 2013

Worth keeping an eye on...
Iran to enter Middle East fray?

In what could be the boldest move we've heard about in a long time, and one that is sure to get a reaction from the oil markets, Iran has announced that they will be sending 4000 troops from it's Revolutionary Guard into Syria to help bolster the Assad regime.

Don't be too shocked to hear that Iran desires some stability along its own front here. If Syria goes, then Iran probably won't be too far behind in experiencing a taste of internal conflict. This week also finds some proof in that pudding in that the United States will keep its forces posted in Jordan, another Middle East neighbour. Both countries have a seemingly similar distaste for one another ever since the Shah was overthrown all those years ago. To say that nothing will happen would at this point, be wishful thinking, but it appears that the Iranians want some sort of stability to preserve its own rule. What has made this situation more interesting in its nature is what's happening in a country squat between the two nations...Iraq.

Speaking of instability in the region, Iraq production is also seeing some disruption as the fighting in Syria becomes more fluid. Some battles there have overflowed into Iraqi territory just a year and a half after the US withdrawal. Any disruption there could be significant in the markets as Iraqi production was just nearing pre-war levels. Is it maybe the reason why Iran is sending in the troops; to stabilize Syria's eastern regions?

So, oil prices moved up $3 US a barrel this week on the news. Refined commodities followed with some gusto, but not enough to shock us at the pumps...Yet! While the numbers are up for the distillates this week, they're not up a whole lot on the gasoline front. So far, they've tracked more or less where I said they'd be for the summer; right around that $1.30 a litre mark for the immediate St. John's area. 

So far, so good...That's if things settle down a bit in the Middle East and barring any other outside conditions like hurricanes.

We'll keep you posted.

Here's what I have for this week's price changes:

  • Heating and stove oils show an added 2.77 cents a litre.
  • Diesel shows an added 2 cents a litre even.
  • Regular gasoline shows a slight increase of just 9/10ths of  a cent a litre, and...
  • Reformulated blend shows just an added 1/10th of a cent.
That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA


Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Numbers for Thursday, June 13, 2013

A Word on Inventories...

It's not often one can view inventory levels of a certain product that is endeared to one's life, but the work of the Energy Information Administration has to be a standout example of the effect an inventory sampling can have on a market.

Today was no such example, but the snapshot released by the Energy Information Administration, along with it's projections on future pricing, will surely have a detrimental effect on oil prices.

As of today, the Energy Information Administration said 387 million barrels of crude oil are now at hand in US stockpiles.That's a record that has stood for something in the order of 82 years...

Think about that for a minute.

Inventory that has broken records the past few weeks is about to impact the markets, and it probably would never have happened if it had not been for the need to have strategic supplies on hand in the event of war or national emergency. Matched with a huge increase of US domestic production and a drop in consumer demand for refined product, there's trouble ahead for oil prices...

Today as well, while they raised the price of West Texas Intermediate for next year by eight cents to $93.25 a barrel, they also said that the price of Brent will drop below their initial projection of $100.75 for 2014. My thinking is that the onslaught of domestic production will lower the sale price of Brent crude because of increased domestic availability. We simply won't have to look for oil outside the US box.

Thank God for record keeping!

If we didn't know how much oil was on hand, we'd never know what to expect of the economy in the United States. And God knows then what Big Oil would be charging you and I at the pump!

Which brings one to think in this country, Canada: Why aren't we doing this sort of record keeping here? We don't know just how much of an impact our own record keeping could be on ours...

Here's what I have for this week's price changes:

  • Heating and stove oils projected to increase by 1.2 cents a litre.
  • Diesel to increase by 1.1 cents a litre.
  • Regular gasoline to increase by 1.4 cents a litre, and...
  • Reformulated blends show an added 8/10ths of a cent a litre.
That's it for this week!

Regards from the Big Land!

George Murphy
Group researcher
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, June 04, 2013

Numbers for Thursday, June 6th, 2013

OPEC: Backed into a corner...

Well, I guess you can say that it's been another ho hum week in the markets with nothing really to report.

The traders kept trading and the sellers kept selling.

Buyers bought...

As for oil, the telltale glut had them talking in Vienna, Austria last week. The talk around the table was mostly from fellow OPEC members who, interestingly, seemed to have been put in a situation that I can almost say assuredly, they have never found themselves in: backs into a corner as they face the awful prospect of "competition".

No ordinary competition, mind you.

The competition doesn't come from just one country, where years ago you could measure the threat of strategic pooled oil reserves that may come lurking to the surface as an eager oil company may pump. It comes from almost everywhere that one can find shale oil formations, from which the fracked threat surfaces. Not that I am a solid backer of fracking, mind you. There are simply too many questions around the security and safety of water that need to be answered and secured before we go "full bore" on drilling.

You should be asking those questions too, before we lose even our own water here in Newfoundland and Labrador via the "frack door".

They call it "democratic oil", simply because almost every country in the world has somewhat of a shale deposit wherein lies the golden juice of light, sweet oil or natural gas reserves. It has literally forced the Saudi's as well as other member OPEC nations to turn their eyes toward "joining them, because they simply can't beat them" club. OPEC nations themselves, because of the low break-even price of producing product from a fracked oil well, are now forced to join the club and start looking at lower cost bottom line projects in oil production, and that's the new "where, why and when" oil prices may make another solid retreat.

In the not-too-distant future, you can see that OPEC itself will start to get into the game, ahead of getting standard pooled reserves to flow, simply because production costs to pound a hole in the ground are much lower than "older" technologies can deliver. Fracking may simply be the reason why OPEC can't make a production cut: It will simply cut itself out of what used to be a solid maketing opportunity for them. We'll have the excuse to turn off the OPEC spigot.

You see, even to OPEC, they're now forced to keep up with the Jones's...

And that's another reason why even the electricity markets aren't what they used to be...

Here's what I have for price changes this week:
  • Heating and stove oils to drop by 1.2 cents a litre.
  • Diesel to drop by 1.6 cents a litre.
  • Regular gasoline to drop by 1.1 cents a litre, and...
  • Reformulated blends show just a 8/10ths of a cent change in price.
Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA



 

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Price changes for Thursday, May 30, 2013



Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for price changes for this week:
·         Heating and stove oils are predicted to drop by 68/100ths of a cent per litre.
·         Diesel should drop by one cent a litre.
·         Regular gasoline shows a drop of 1.3 cents  a litre, and…
·         Reformulated blends show a drop of just one cent a litre.

Market highlights

·         OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria this week to discuss a possible production cut to try and stabilize prices. Allegedly, Saudi Arabia are asking about the possibility, but why even bother? Try cutting back on production happening now, over and above your self-imposed quota. Eyes are on the meeting going ahead at the end of this week.
·         Oil prices lose a dollar against last week’s climb in the markets and the Canadian dollar takes another kicking against the US greenback as a result. Canadian dollar loses another penny against the US buck this past week. $1 US now equals $1.0371 Canadian.
·         Farmers in Alberta are now looking for a ban on fracking? Yes, Alberta. The National Farmers Union is calling for a moratorium on fracking. According to this story anyway.
·         Meanwhile, also from Alberta, the government there is considering expanding mandatory water testing within 250 meters of any fracked well. The story from April says that the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) does not make the program mandatory for fracked wells and that the only requirement that needs to be met is in the case of methane coalbed extraction. Surprised to hear they don’t test at all for fracked wells now!

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Price changes for Thursday, May 23, 2013

Hi to all...

Here's what I have for this week's price changes:

  • Heating and stove oils are both up by 1.28 cents a litre.
  • Diesel shows an added 1.7 cents a litre.
  • Regular gasoline as well as reformulated blends are showing an added 2.2 cents a litre.
Highlights

  • Canadian dollar loses close on two cents against the US greenback.
  • Oil prices (WTI) climb two dollars a US barrel on the week.
 Short and sweet this week again!

Regards for now!

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA