Price changes for Thursday, April 12th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for price changes for this week:

*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.6 cents a litre.

*Both Diesel and Gasoline show a drop of 1.9 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Trump a nightmare for the oil markets

Besides trying to run a country, the U.S president has been throwing turmoil in the markets, threatening tariffs at every turn. Latest on the list is China, with Trump arguing his case that they have an imbalance with the Asian monster.

      Not good for the oil markets however, as anticipated demand would show that more oil would be needed for a burgeoning economy that has access to the U.S market. The threat of tariffs saw oil fall and then steady through the week, but a possible ease of the tariff argument later in the session helped support oil prices. Those hopes were part reason why Brent prices hit $71 U.S in trading today.

      

Word on U.S inventories

Oil inventories from the U.S Energy Information Administration proved to be bullish as the department reported a draw on oil inventories of 4.6 million barrels.

            Gasoline also showed a draw of 1.1 million barrels against a refiner capacity of 93 percent.

            U.S domestic production increased by 27,000 barrels a day to show the U.S producing 10.46 million barrels a day.

            But with that number comes the question why domestic output has not increased appreciably to the corresponding rise in oil prices. It could be caution, but a lacklustre performance in the face of a rise in oil is also helping to support oil prices as well.

           If there’s going to be a measured response, it may happen this week as the U.S rig count increased by 11 rigs this week, which may be enough to temper oil prices should their output come online.

Final word...

Still watching the situation in the Middle East, particularly as it comes from Syria and the Russian/U.S back and forth on the issue. Iran and Saudi Arabia are also still in focus as the war in Yemen has also been making headlines this week.

            There’s lots happening out there, and I’m trying to keep an eye to all of it!

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, April 5th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for price changes for this week:

*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 5/10ths of a cent per litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an added 3/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 1/10th of a cent a litre.

Keep in mind that I go by a 3/10ths of a cent margin for error.

I think most here will remember last week with its increase, but I did notice a trend where prices showed they would steady out for the next week or so, and if there were to be any retreat in prices, they would show on the tail end of this week's measurement.

Such is the case where I do have a slight decline predicted for next week, for gasoline at least, as prices have dropped back for refined commodities by about 1.5 cents.

Heating, stove oils and Diesel fuel all show a drop of 1 to 1.5 cents leading into next week's price changes. Keep in mind that anything can happen in the next week however, so don't put your money on it until I get a couple of more days data!

That's it for next week!

Regards,

George

Price changes for Thursday, March 29, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating/stove oils to increase by 4.1 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by three cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to increase by 3.5 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Bolton appointment continues to fan the oil markets

     John Bolton seems to be a nice enough fella...

     At least to Donald Trump.

     He’s now a member of the Trump cabinet and was a key adversary of the Iran nuclear deal reached between Obama and six other nations sitting around the U.N security council, and Germany. The deal signed a few years back saw Iran increase its oil exports in return for promising to shut down it’s nuclear aspirations.

     Markets are still trading oil higher as speculators see the possibilities of another extended Middle East conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a problem that was given fuel with Crown Prince Bin Salman meeting with Trump earlier this week.

Budget 2018

     The provincial budget is in and there’s really no surprises in it.

     While the province held back on the remaining four cents a litre in gas taxes that first came in back in Budget 2016, they did commit to dropping the gas tax immediately upon implementation of a new carbon tax due to hit the people of the province in January of 2019.

      Further, the province has set the budget based on $63 US a barrel.

      With eleven opinions of where oil will be, the government settled on those opinions.

      I personally wouldn’t have gone beyond $55 US. We’ve been here before and the markets are certainly volatile with U.S domestic production set to break the eleven million barrel a day mark in a couple of months. True, that geo-politics may reign supreme in the news right now, but anything is possible and can’t be discounted.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Saudi Arabia, Trump and Iran...and yes, your weekly price changes!

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oil to increase by 2.3 cents a litre.

Diesel fuel to increase by 2.4 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to increase by three cents a litre.

Market highlights

Saudi Arabia pokes the Middle East bear...

Saudi Arabia joined in on Trump’s refrain in calling the Iran nuclear deal into question late yesterday as the Middle East rhetoric ramps up.

     Trump has also called into question the deal first signed in 2009, but there may be an ulterior motive behind the increase in questioning the deal.

      While Trump has been making the call, U.S exports of domestic oil have increased along with the increase in U.S domestic production. If sanctions were to be ramped up again against Iran, it could come in the form of lower oil output again from Iran, creating space for both U.S and Saudi Arabian exports to fill the void.

      Saudi Arabia has also lost a little market share in the last couple of years and may have good reason in limiting the cash intake to a country that supports the opposite regime in Yemen.

      In the meantime, the Saudi crown prince is on record as saying the Saudi’s would build nuclear weapons if Iran succeeds.

      Scary times...

Venezuelan production lower...

Unrest and a weak economy saddled with a huge government debt is driving Venezuelan production lower at a time when the South American country can least afford it..

      According to International Energy Agency figures, the South American country’s production has fallen close to 600,000 barrels a day since the same time last year.

Provincial budget next week to lower gas taxes?...

The province is set to drop the budget March 27^th and that brings with it the promise of a return to lower gas taxes as government is set to remove the last four cents a litre (4.6 cents including HST) first implemented in Budget 2016.

      The gas tax at that time doubled from 16.5 cents a litre to 33 cents a litre in an attempt to increase provincial revenue by increasing the gas tax take from $189 million per year to a predicted $318 million.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter@GeorgeMurphyOil

Tillerson removal and this week's price changes...

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oil to drop by 4/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel to decrease by 3/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline to decrease by a half penny a litre.

Market highlights

Watch oil-Tillerson is gone...

While it was a fairly quiet week on the markets, the removal of Tillerson from the Trump “cabinet” again placed an interest back into Middle East politics.

      At this point, his removal shouldn’t be a surprise. Both were miles apart on a key issue on Trump’s agenda, a renegotiation of the Iran nuclear deal.

      With Tillerson now gone, it may be worthwhile to keep an eye on oil prices as Trump may be about to take a poke at the Middle Eastern bear to see if he can’t again get his way and make changes to the Iran nuclear deal signed by Obama and five other nations in 2015.

U.S inventories

U.S crude inventories increased again last week adding 2.4 million barrels in a report that also showed a drop in gasoline supplies of 800K barrels.

      Distillate also saw a drop in inventories of 600K barrels.

      Refiner capacity was recorded at 88 per cent with scheduled refinery shut-downs.

       U.S domestic oil production hit a new high of 10.369 million barrels a day, an increase of 86,000 barrels in the last week.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, March 8th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating/stove oils to drop by 1.8 cents a litre.

*Diesel price to drop by 2.2 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to drop by 1.4 cents a litre.

Market highlights

U.S inventories weigh on the markets

While speculators have been groping for positive news in the oil markets, they have been coming up with disappointing results, and that includes the latest U.S inventory reports that signal that the U.S is starting to fill up its coffers with new oil.

      U.S crude inventories increased Wednesday last week by another three million barrels, adding to a potential glut of oil south of the border.

     Gasoline inventories also increased in spite of lower refiner capacity. Gasoline rose by 2.5 million barrels as refiner capacity dropped to 87.8 percent. With a drop in the capacity due to refinery shut-downs for maintenance, it was unusual to see gasoline inventories building with refinery spigots turned off.

       It may also signal a slightly bigger drop in demand as consumers may have been curtailed from using fuel as a result of foul late winter weather.

      U.S domestic output increased in the last week, adding another 13,000 barrels a day to overall U.S production of oil.

Canadian dollar sinks again

The Canadian dollar lost ground again to Trump’s call for increased tariffs against Canadian steel and aluminum helped support refined prices.

      With the Canadian dollar losing almost three cents against the U.S greenback, refined prices also lost roughly 1.6 cents a litre on all refined fuel prices.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, February 15, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 5.3 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel shows a drop of 5.6 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of 5.1 cents a litre.

Market highlights

U.S domestic output hits ten million a day

One week later than predicted, U.S domestic oil production hit 10.251 million barrels a day, showing a record weekly increase to break the 10 million barrier in good fashion.

     The news was enough to spark a sell-off of oil with speculators now looking at growing production amidst cuts that were made to help support prices. Worries also centered on the fact that U.S domestic producers can come into the markets relatively quickly when the market conditions and price are right.

      U.S rig counts have also increased as small producers get back in.

U.S EIA report shows a build in refined products

Last Wednesday’s Energy Information Administration report on inventories also was front and center in this week’s slide in oil and refined prices as all major inventory groups showed robust growth as refiner capacity climbed back up to 92.5 per cent capacity.

     Gasoline inventories added 3.4 million barrels, while distillate also climbed by 3.9 million barrels, a possible signal of weakening demand as the markets concentrated on the March buying contract.

Next week’s outlook

While numbers are now showing just about another cent down for all fuels for next week, all is really going to count on the next U.S Energy Information Administration report to confirm further breaks to consumers for next week.

     Any build in crude, gasoline or distillate this time around may force oil prices south of present levels and possibly signal further growth into a possible glut of oil south of the border.

     Watch the Baker Hughes rig count that comes out on Friday as well that may still signal the entry of smaller producers into the U.S shale markets.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil    

Price changes for Thursday, February 8th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 3.4 cents a litre.

*Diesel shows a drop of 2 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of 1.9 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Market speculators focus of U.S domestic output

The retreat in oil price this week may be blamed by some on the fall of the stock market yesterday, but that’s not necessarily the case...

      Stocks recovered the next day in the market correction, but oil still showed a retreat in today’s trading with strong indications that traders were focused more on the growth in U.S domestic output, due to hit ten million barrels a day either this week, or next.

      The mythological number needs just 80,000 barrels to hit the mark.

      That number will probably be achieved in short order with the addition of another seven rigs in the overall U.S rig count on Friday that shows a steady growth of smaller producers getting in while oil prices are up.

       The next few months are going to be interesting to watch as oil prices try to strike a new balance of new, smaller shale producers trying to get a fair price against the former OPEC super oil power in the markets. If oil goes low, OPEC loses as well as smaller producers and oil instability will result.

       Prices will be in flux until then with more risk to the downside as chances of outside factors influencing OPEC pricing decisions become moot with additional U.S capacity.

Market focuses away from heating/stove oils

With February comes the March buying contract and thoughts of traders switch from heating, stove oils and other distillates like Diesel to the promise of  warmer spring weather and strength in demand for Gasoline.

     Often this time of year, what becomes more noticeable in the price changes is the fact that distillates are dropping more this week than Gasoline, a sure sign that relief from winter is on the way if not because of anything else but the promise of spring.

     While numbers there are dropping, note some support for gasoline as the drop this week shows some sign of “strength” as the drop is not so prevalent.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, February 1st, 2018

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for price changes for this Thursday, February 1st:

*Heating/stove oils show an increase of 8/10ths of a cent.
*Diesel shows an increase of 1.2 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of 1.2 cents a litre as well.

Market highlight

Oil hits a wall?
While oil prices have being showing a steady rise as of late with people like myself waiting for U.S domestic production to respond, strong signs are emerging that we might be hitting the wall on further increases to oil prices.
     Cracks started appearing this week in speculators upwards trading of oil prices that may have been partly influenced by a huge growth in domestic production last week that, in itself, may have led to a decline in prices the past two days of market trading.
With oil prices butting heads with $70 US a barrel oil, it was long expected that U.S domestic production would soon ramp up on prices alone and help add a buttress to rising prices.
     Last week may have been the turning point.
     With U.S domestic set to hit 10 million barrels a day as soon as this week, speculators are starting to pull back on bets for rising oil and the past two days have shown oil retreating back to $68 US on "fears" that U.S domestic is beginning to take off.
     While it may be of no benefit this week for consumers here, the real benefits will be garnered as soon as next week if inventory reports confirm further increases to U.S domestic production figures tomorrow.

I'll keep it at that for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Price changes for Thursday, January 25th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this week's price changes:

*Heating and stove oils to drop by 8/10ths of a cent a litre.
*Diesel to drop by 1.1 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline to increase by 1.6 cents a litre.

Market highlights

OPEC meetings in Oman
News out of Oman this evening that must put a smile on the faces of anyone dealing in Middle East commodities as OPEC members are agreeable to continuing their production cuts well past 2018.
     The cuts by OPEC producers were supposed to expire in 2018, but members are now in agreement that "much more needs to be done" to help bring the oil markets back to balance, and that their cuts seem to be bringing some redress to that end.

API report shows a build
The American Petroleum Institute reported a build in inventories of both oil and gasoline products after today's market close, but the real news will probably come in tomorrow's US EIA inventory report noon Wednesday.
      The API reported a build of 4.7 million barrels, while gasoline showed a build of 4.1 million barrels.
      The inventory report was enough to temper gains in oil prices in aftermarket trading.

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for January 18, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils show a half cent a litre increase.

*Diesel fuel shows an increase of 7/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of 2.3 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Demand for world oil rising?

Some hints in the news this week may bring some a little hope for rising oil prices, but again it’s the potential influence of U.S domestic shale production that keeps things a little tempered.

            News reports out of China are implying a growing demand again as their economy ramps up, but it’s their neighbor to the south, India, that seems to be drawing more attention as the Asian country seems to be importing more oil that usual to meet its growing oil refining sector.

            Indian imports of oil have reportedly hit close to 4.8 million barrels a day into a country that only a few short years ago, was distantly thought of as a potential reason for increasing world demand and a still very young but growing economy.

U.S rig count rises again

The rig count south of the border is starting to show more signs of growth in what may be the first real sign of a response to rising world oil prices.

            The Baker Hughes rig count this past Friday saw an additional fifteen rigs go back to work with ten of those specifically searching for oil. The other five pursued natural gas, but no doubt would have oil as a residual to their production.

           With oil prices hitting $70 US for Brent this week and $64 US for West Texas Intermediate, there’s plenty of room for speculation.

            But the rig count may itself be the reason why we may yet see a more cautious market approach to the $70 US a barrel level. A second week of robust rig count growth may be enough to signal a retreat after this Friday as it could be seen as a sign of growing U.S output and a hedge against OPEC production cuts.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, December 28th, 2017

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes. Due to the fact that there was no published data for today’s trading, I have made a best “guesstimate” that is probably low, based on the performance of oil today.

*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 1.1 cents a litre.

*Diesel shows an increase of 1.5 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of 3.4 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Libyan disruption bites markets today

Oil showed a steady increase to day as an important Libyan pipeline went up in flames taking close to 100,000 barrels of exports offline in a tightening oil market. Brent crude rose almost $1.20 US a barrel on the news.

Gasoline inventories up, but not a lot

Gasoline inventories showed another increase in inventory levels, but with rising capacity of close on 94%, it didn’t rise as compared to the two weeks previous. That signalled an increase in demand ahead of the important Christmas travel season. Demand was shown to have increased as gasoline only increased in inventories by 1.7 million barrels compared to the previous weeks’ 5.4 million barrel build.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Price changes for Thursday, December 21st, 2017

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for price changes for this Thursday:

*Heating/stove oils show an increase of 2/10ths of a cent a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows down a half cent, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 1.7 cents a litre.

Merry Christmas to us, wa?...

Market highlights

Inventories increase again
U.S EIA inventories of gasoline increased again last week as gasoline demand remained a little weak ahead of the Christmas travel season and refiner capacity remained high.
Gasoline inventories showed a gain of 5.7 million barrels against a draw of 5.1 million barrels of crude, but refiner capacity remained high at 93.4 percentage points.
Distillates dropped in 1.4 million barrels as winter demand remains a factor in support of heating and stove oil prices.

Canadian dollar slips
The Canadian dollar slipped against it's chief competitor over the past week as the U.S Greenback showed some strength over the last week and a half, losing close on a penny against the U.S buck.

I'll leave it at that for this week. I'll still be here over Christmas as long as the trading continues. Numbers may be off slightly with the markets closed for so many days, but we'll try to be as accurate as possible for the trip home.

Be safe out there! Enjoy your time with family and leave the keys if you plan on "celebrating" the Epiphany!

Regards,

George and family

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil 

Price changes for Thursday, December 14, 2017

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils show no change in prices this week.

*Diesel fuel shows an increase of a half penny (5/10ths) a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of a half penny a litre.

Market highlights

U.S domestic output continues to grow

U.S inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration show that U.S domestic oil output has again showed an increase by another 25,000 barrels a day, putting domestic output at 9.707 million barrels a day.

            But domestic output has been lagging a little in spite of it’s own growth. While steady upwards, it hasn’t been robust. Some speculate that there’s a need for junior producers to steady their finances before the drill-bits go in the ground. But the real reason my be a booming U.S economy.

           While the economy has been busy the last few years, oil prices collapsed throwing many out of the oil patch and into other areas of the transportation sector. Simple fact may be that people aren’t as quick to enter into a sector of the economy that may collapse again and that could be the issue.

U.S inventories report

U.S crude inventories were down in the same report, showing crude down by 5.6 million barrels with refiner capacity up to 93.8 percentage points.

            U.S gasoline inventories were up by 6.8 million barrels, while distillate inventories climbed by 1.7 million barrels.

            Gasoline prices hardly moved over the reporting period with gas inventories offsetting crude oil losses.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, December 7th, 2017

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for price changes for this week:

*Heating and stove oils both show no changes.

*Diesel fuel shows a drop of a half penny, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of 1.5 cents a litre.

Market highlights

OPEC and non-OPEC producers extend production cuts

Meetings of OPEC and non-OPEC members on Thursday past were deemed to be successful by the group as both sides saw an extension of a cuts agreement extended until the end of 2018 from March of 2018.

     Non-OPEC members were also in agreement as the cuts both groups Implimented were seen to be a successful measure in chewing into a world over-supply of oil.

     Non-OPEC members agreed to add 600,000 barrels a day in cuts to add to OPEC’s 1.2 million barrels a day brought in November of 2016.

Markets wait and see

While OPEC and non-OPEC members were successful in reaching an agreement on cuts, market traders were left to wonder at how much U.S domestic output will respond to fill the gaps in output left by the cuts.

     While U.S domestic output is seeing constant growth, so far it has been sporadic as financial issues around any possible collapse has some showing some caution as they get drill-bits into the ground.

      Other cite the simple problem of getting people back into the oil workforce after the market collapse of 2014 drove many to other sectors of a booming U.S economy.

       Oil prices have remained close to $63 US for Brent for the last few days since the meetings.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Friday, December 1st, 2017

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for price changes for this Friday:

*Heating/stove oils show an increase of just 3/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel shows no changes, and...

*Gasoline shows a net drop of 4.3 cents a litre. While markets traded up by 7/10ths of a cent this week, government is dropping another portion of the gas tax it added last year. The 4.3 a litre down accounts for that.

Market highlights

Markets steady as they wait for OPEC and Russia movement

Oil prices remained relatively stagnant over the past week as observers keep a close eye on what OPEC will do after this week’s meetings.

     Markets are stepping lightly as OPEC strives to come to a decision on possible further cuts and further participation by Russia and Azerbaijan in an extension to production cuts by non-OPEC producers.

     What is interesting to see, or hear, in all this is how muted that conversation has become about Russia’s further participation in the possibility of extending those cuts past next March 2018. They haven’t come out directly and said they are willing to extend them.

      Russia itself has that possibility of losing some market share to growing U.S domestic production that has hit new heights to the point that the U.S has also started to export into the world market, replacing lost production from OPEC and non-OPEC producers.

U.S domestic production continues growth

U.S domestic production has continued to outpace even Energy Information Administration estimates as a record 9.652 million barrels a day came out of shale areas south of the border over the last week. With oil still supported at $63 US for Brent and $58 US West Texas Intermediate, some small producers are getting back in.

     While growth is at a record, some slowing has occurred as producers are being overly cautious in getting back in until they have their fiscal end of things tightened up.      And while drill-bits are getting back in the ground, some are saying that with a booming U.S economy, other areas of the economy are taking up valuable people resources before the oil industry can get to them. Once bitten by a recent industry collapse, some aren’t so eager as the company themselves to get back in.

     That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil 

Price changes for Thursday, November 16, 2017

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for price changes for Thursday:

*Heating and stove oil to increase by 1.3 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by 1.2 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to decrease by 1.2 cents a litre.

From the markets

OPEC rethinks demand forecast

OPEC is rethinking it’s forecast for world oil demand and states in it’s release a factor one would have suspected would make a worldwide impact before now: the electric vehicle.

     In it’s demand forecast, OPEC states a lower than expected oil demand because of the electric vehicle and other outside oil producers.

     Today also saw a report from the International Energy Agency that seemed to confirm OPEC’s report that also calls for lower than expected world oil demand.

     The news today sent crude lower from it’s November 6^th peak at $64 US a barrel to today’s close around $61 US.

Traders begin to worry over U.S domestic output

Traders are also beginning to worry over the effect of slightly higher oil prices and what that will do to stall the recent rise in oil prices.

     It’s generally seen that with OPEC cuts to production and their initial effect on the price, that there would be some sort of response as U.S small shale producers headed back to the oil patch. Last week’s inventory report from the U.S Energy Information Administration saw a huge build in production with an added 67,000 barrels of oil added on to a record 9.62 million barrel a day output.

     News today also saw a drop in Saudi Arabian imports into North America with the development of “closer” domestic sources.

Futures prices tell a tale

With the province getting some added revenue from higher oil, I saw fit to have a look at what traders are thinking for the future with some of the contracts that are out there.

     For the final quarter of this year, expect $61 US and change as markets rebalance.

     Fiscal 2018 looks the same with oil (Brent) averaging $61 US, but this starts to drop back towards $58 US through to fiscal 2019.

That’s it for me this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, November 9th, 2017

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating/stove oil to increase by 1.7 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by 7/10ths of a cent per litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of 2.2 cents a litre.

Saudi Arabia rules the oil news

A heir-apparent has taken the focus in the news this week as Mohammed Bin Salman, the next ruler of Saudi Arabia, had his security forces out on Sunday making mass arrests and detentions of any potential rivals to his throne.

     Oil has risen almost $3 US to hit $64 US for Brent crude since news broke of the mass arrests.

      While not seen as an immediate threat to Saudi Arabian governance, it has been seen as clear evidence that there is considerable unrest in the lead OPEC oil producing nation.

      Riding the tails of a revival in crude prices is a projected increase to US shale output in the coming months as U.S producers capitalize on rising oil prices, but they could be running into a problem...

If shale output can’t keep up...

According to a story through CNBC, U.S shale output may be experiencing a  problem caused by the last collapse in oil prices.

     The problem is simple: they can’t get the drill-bits into the ground fast enough.

     Drillers are simply not willing to take so much financial risk without putting their businesses in order to survive a downturn again. The story from Morgan Stanley also says that U.S production won’t be able to step in and fill the drop in production of 1.8 million barrels a day in production that OPEC is thinking about extending past the March 2018 deadline.

         

There could be hope here...

With the rising price of oil and slower prospects in the U.S, is there hope then for pooled resources such as we have here offshore?

     Pooled resources tend to be longer lasting and with less financial risk involved with field longevity.

     If oil is supported in price by slowing U.S shale output, it stands to reason major explorers will step back into long term projects. Outside of other countries trying to develop shale resources, there’s better hope we can deliver from our own offshore.

     Fingers crossed...

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, November 2, 2017

Hi to all,

No trick...and definitely no treat, here are the expected price changes for this Thursday, November 2, 2017:

*Heating and stove oil to increase by 3.4 cents a litre.

*Diesel shows an added 3.8 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an added 4.6 cents a litre at the pumps.

Market highlights

OPEC cuts telling?

OPEC and non-OPEC members have agreed to extend output cuts made in November 2016 well past the March 2018 end of the initial agreement.

    OPEC member Saudi Arabia first introduced cuts but were then joined by non-OPEC members Russia and Azerbaijan to total 1.8 million barrels a day in cuts which have been seen to reduce the world oversupply of crude oil. Prices have been rising in recent weeks on the news to hit $61 US as of today.

Gasoline inventories hit

Gasoline inventories took a hit in last week’s EIA inventory report with the fuel dropping 5.5 million barrels in inventory.

    What made the number even more significant was the fact that refiner capacity was recorded at 87.8 per cent. While capacity on average hits the low 90’s, the missing capacity wasn’t seen as enough to build demand. Could be a good sign of an increase in demand.

     U.S spot price for gasoline has increased five cents a US gallon since the last pricing session ended.

Canadian dollar lower

While the price of oil has risen in recent weeks, the Canadian dollar has lost ground against the US dollar, dropping almost four cents against its US counterpart since October 19^th. Almost every cent increase at the pumps equals every 3/4 cent lost against the US Greenback.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, October 19, 2017

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oil to increase by 1.5 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by 1.3 cents a lire, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of 1.2 cents a litre.

           Geo-political risks have taken the front seat in the markets this week as Donald Trump’s sabre-rattling over the Iran nuclear deal continues to weigh in the markets. While groups such as the European Union say the deal is being adhered to by Iran, Trump wants a stronger deal than is present in the July, 2015 agreement signed in part by the Obama administration.

          One wonders what Trump’s plan is, but instability seems to be a part of his agenda as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is said to be adhered to according to groups like the International Atomic Energy Agency and even the U.S State Department!                 

          Add to that the disruption of exports from Ceyhan, Turkey of oil from the Kirkuk region of Iraq as Kurdish fighters and the Iraqi army tussle over the region rich in oil fields. The fighting has led to an increase in the value of Brent crude and the removal of close to 600,000 barrels a day in exports from the Turkish port city.

          What will be interesting to watch in the coming days and weeks will be the response from U.S domestic production as oil prices see some height above the $50 US per barrel mark.

           That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Price changes for Thursday, October 12, 2017

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating/stove oils show a drop of two cents a litre.

*Diesel shows a drop of 1.4 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of just 6/10ths of a cent a litre.

Market highlights

Gasoline inventories climb again

As the markets and consumers recover from the effects of Hurricane Harvey, it’s also worth noting that refineries still haven’t come back to previous capacity levels before the hurricane hit the major Texas and area refining region.

   Generally believed is the fact that some refiners have used the downtime to do maintenance before the winter season hits. It’s just happening a little earlier than normal.

    With capacity still hanging around 88 per cent, capacity was recorded around 93 percent before Harvey hit. If the remaining difference in capacity comes on-line, then the added inventory could help to drop prices and possibly steady the distillate price, which has also been rising again as of late.

OPEC talks with Russia

OPEC member Saudi Arabia and Russia have both been in discussions the last few days and extending agreed-upon cuts are on the agenda.

     OPEC members along with Russia and Azerbaijan, agreed to make almost 1.8 million barrels a day in production cuts to help cut into the world’s excess of crude oil.

     According to them, the cuts are finally beginning to take hold and oil has been seeing a little bit of a boost as of late.

     It remains to be seen how long the cuts will last as previous reports have shown some OPEC members producing a little more than what was initially agreed to and U.S domestic production as well as U.S exports both continue to increase.

     As a side-note, for the third week in a row, Brent crude has been averaging anywhere between $55 and $58 US a barrel.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for thursday, October 5th, 2017

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating, stove oil and Diesel fuel all show a drop of 3/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Gasoline shows a drop of 2.5 cents a litre.

Consumers to get another break at the pumps

“Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia can expect to see a break at the pumps again this week when their various regulatory authorities adjust prices”. That’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as New Brunswick both set their prices as of Wednesday at midnight, while Nova Scotia adjusts prices Thursday midnight.

“In the wake of Harvey, we’re starting to see refiner capacity climb while gasoline inventories also rise. Gasoline inventories increased last week with refinery capacity still below what it was “pre-Harvey”, Murphy said. “With capacity still not back to those levels, it is reasonable to assume that the markets will be looking at two important factors in the equation, the first being no panic buying ahead of the storms which immediately takes pressure off gasoline, and two, the fact that we’re looking at gasoline being produced in excess while capacity is low. Almost seven per cent lower than before Harvey landed.

“I’ll be watching tomorrow’s inventory data to see if the trend looks to be continuing falling prices as refiners are also into the switch from refining gasoline to the refinement of distillates and winter gasoline blends as the weather cools. Gasoline shows a strong sign of weakening demand here, so hopefully, prices will drop further in the favour of the consumer”.

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil