Numbers show interruption to gasoline prices
No other fuels affected

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, September 29, 2009- The numbers are there for interruption to gasoline prices to occur, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Over the past week, there has been considerable downwards volatility in the markets and gasoline prices are showing a drop coming to consumers. We just don’t know if the Petroleum Pricing Office has those same figures. My numbers show a decrease coming at the pumps of at least 4.9 cents a litre and it could be more than that, if volatility has indeed been a missing factor in the numbers,” Murphy said.

“Heating, stove and diesel prices don’t have the same downwards trend as gasoline, although those numbers are also down slightly. Right now, heating and stove oils show 1.72 cents a litre down with diesel down better than 2.1 cents a litre, not enough on all three counts to warrant interruption to those fuels.

“A drop in demand with the end of the summer driving season coupled with a lack of confidence in any economic recovery resulted in oil prices dropping along with corresponding refined commodities. Inventories are bulging with product and it’s not likely to change in the coming weeks. There’s going to have to be a huge increase in consumer demand along with a drop in refinery capacity in order to impact gasoline inventories right now.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member

Update #2

Gasoline still showing "Down"

With just one more day to go, gasoline is still showing an interrupt scenario for this coming Thursday morning.

So far, gasoline now shows down by 4.27 cents or almost 4.9 cents a litre including taxes.

Here's hoping oil trades relatively unchanged tomorrow!

Tune in tomorrow night for the final outcome. I'll have a release posted around eleven or so, if interruption is the case.

Regards,

George

Early interruption coming?

First off...

This morning I got the emailer from this site with the predicted drops in pricing to come for Thursday...

Problem is, I never got it until today, a day later than the usual.

I'm guessing that it has to do with the service itself. Fact is, is that I did make that posting on Tuesday night, a full two days ahead of the auto emailer delivery.

I wonder when you'll get this one?

Anyway, just a short note here...

With oil dropping below $67 US a barrel today, I fully expect that when I get home from work later tonight, that I will find that gasoline prices on the New York mercantile exchange will have dropped so much so, that they would have entered into interruption territory. Wednesday's numbers put the average down by 3.2 cents a litre plus taxes but we need a four cent a litre average between Wednesday and Tuesday of next week.

In other words, go light on the gold stuff as we're probably going to see prices below a buck a litre this time next week...IF...the downwards trend in oil continues into Tuesday.

Look for another posting on that topic on Tuesday night if the numbers are there for it!

You might want to pass the word along as well....

Regards,

George

Update #1

It's Saturday morning and I'm fresh in the door.

Just checked the latest numbers and they now show a drop of 4.24 cents a litre, not including taxes for gasoline. That puts it in the range needed for interruption.
It's all now going to come down to the next two business days.
Unbelievable, but Thursday morning may very well find us below a buck a litre again!

I'll keep you all updated!

George

Prices should drop this Thursday

Winter heating forecast!

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, September 22, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see a slight downwards adjustment to prices this coming Thursday. That’s when the Public Utilities Board moves to set prices again.

George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices expects to see numbers for all fuels to drop slightly in the wake of the fluctuation in oil prices and its related commodities over the last two weeks. “I expect heating and stove oils to drop by 97/100ths of a cent, diesel to drop by 1.2 cents a litre and gasoline to drop by two cents per litre. It may not be a lot but it does signify both stagnation in the increase in oil prices and a steadying out in oil’s refined commodities. Having said that, we also haven’t witnessed any appreciable increase in world demand and that has helped keep prices between $68 and $72 a barrel US.

Marine Atlantic to keep fuel surcharge in place?
“There has been no drop in marine type diesel fuels that would show in the consumer favour. I expect that Marine Atlantic will make no moves in reducing their fuel surcharge. As a matter of fact, residual fuel oil prices have increased in price since the last time the company placed fuel surcharges on Marine Atlantic rates so; it wouldn’t surprise me to see them act in placing an increase to rates this week coming when they look at the numbers for the last quarter.

Winter heating forecast is in
“Consumers can expect some consolation that we will not be seeing prices hit $1.20 a litre as we did a short time ago. This winter looks somewhat better than in 2007 as numbers are showing a projected November number of close to 70 cents per litre with stove oils reaching 72 cents. I expect winter heating oil prices to peak at close to 80 cents in February of 2010 before we see a decline with the advent of spring weather breaking in the US northeast. November of 2007 showed heating oils at 82.4 cents while stove oils hit 84 cents. It was early in 2008 that we were witness to the skyrocketing price of heating oil until the price of oil collapsed later in July of that year when oil prices hit $147 US a barrel. January 2008 heating oil prices hit almost $1.05 a litre as a result of demand on jet fuel along with a high jet fuel price.

Reasons for heating oil being a little cheaper this year
“There are several reasons why heating oil will be slightly cheaper this year. Chief among them are factors such as an elevated Canadian dollar that is helping to keep the price down, a drop in demand compared to 2007 and elevated inventories as compared to that year. That same year, we weren’t dealing with a faltering economy as we are now, so prices for any distillate group fuel was increased from 2006 and that showed at the fuel truck level. This year, for example with jet fuel, which is a component of the winter heating blend in the province, with demand down, I’m expecting to see a slight retreat in the heating oil price overall when the PUB sets prices the first week of November when jet fuel enters the mix.

“Crude oil and distillate inventories are higher than normal for this time of the year. Usually, we see some tightness in inventories but distillates, for example, are almost 40 million barrels more than what they were for the same time frame last year. There’s going to have to be some heavy economic activity happen or an increase in demand if Big Oil is hoping on increasing the price of some distillate product.

“Market conditions could change things, but barring any unforeseen circumstances like a drop in the dollar, an increase in oil prices spurred on by an improving economy, the possibility of OPEC cuts or a slack demand for the product because of warmer than usual winter weather, I am expecting not too much fluctuation in price overall. If however, we see an increase in oil prices such as was witnessed later that winter of 2007 then the game is up and you can be assured that consumers will suffer as a result. The price that is projected now is still unaffordable by most people so government will again have to step in and help people out with rebate-type programming.”

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For more information, contact:

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers pointing down but no interruption forecast

Six days out of seven needed and the numbers only show a rough two cents a litre down on most fuels.

Gasoline shows downwards by a rough 2.5 cents but that's still not enough for interruption to occur. Four cents a litre over or less than the previous price setting is needed for that to happen.

Be watching for next weeks update as I'll have some preliminaries on what to expect for the winter heating season to come. from the look of things, it may not be as bas as early last year!

Regards,

George

Consumers to catch a break at the pumps?
Diesel, heating and stove oils will drop

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, September 08, 2009- Consumers of diesel, heating and stove oils will all be looking at lower prices this coming Thursday morning when the Public Utilities Board moves to adjust prices, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Gasoline numbers
“At this point we have two different numbers for gasoline, one that shows a one tenth of a cent increase on gasoline, and the other showing a 2.8 cent a litre drop coming. This was all necessitated because of the differential we have been seeing between our numbers and those of the PUB. There’s been a large difference as of late that I’m trying to get a handle on, and I may have it. I’m betting on the price dropping this week for gasoline.

“I can’t say if they have changed the way they do things at the P.U.B as of late. All I know is that while my numbers have been dead on for the other fuels I measure, gasoline has been out substantially and it concerned me. I had to go back for a few weeks and work up some other models to try and account for the differences. I think they’ve changed their ways of doing things for that fuel. We’ll find out Thursday morning if I’m back in the saddle again.

Other price changes expected
“Heating and stove oils are expected to take another drop this week of 2.82 cents a litre. Diesel is expected to drop by 3.3 cents a litre following the trend in the last two weeks of crude oil prices. Crude prices over the last two weeks started out at $72 US a barrel, bottomed at $68 US and climbed again today to reach $71 US a barrel. Some of the focus of the markets has come off distillates again as some economic worries are again permeating the markets in the face of dropping jet fuel demand and worries over the H1N1 virus and its economic effects.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers showing down

Numbers are all showing down for diesel, heating and stove oils.

Just not sure on gasoline yet.

It's a case where I have two models I'm working with that either show no change in the numbers so far this month or there is a modest 2.6 cent a litre decrease coming. That's with thirteen days out of fourteen showing their ugly faces.

I'll put in a full posting tomorrow night with all the numbers.

Regards,

George

Will Marine Atlantic add more on fares this week?

"Will" might be exactly what they will do...

Just finished a preliminary look at the numbers for residual fuel oils over the past three months and they're all up, meaning?...

The possibility is here that Marine Atlantic will, once again increase fuel surcharges by another two to three per cent. That's what the numbers are telling me. We have seen increased numbers from June month, almost 38 cents a litre to a point last week that saw the price per litre hit 46 cents per litre.

If an increase is coming, then there should be an announcement imminent.

As to why they wouldn't make an announcement on added fuel surcharges?

The possibility of an election looming as of today's news. Makes one wonder if we aren't being pawed around by the crown corporation in the process. If you don't hear of an increase, or an announcement from the Prime Minister's office on the handling of extra fuel surcharges, then we can assume that there are some shenanigans going on in the light of an election call.

Either way, the people of the province here deserve a straight answer on the going's on in the "Strait".

It's time though, for the office of the Prime Minister to deal with the issue and protect the consumers of Newfoundland and Labrador from the ravages of fuel surcharges passed to us with an addition of funds to help Marine Atlantic absorb the added costs of fuels when necessary.

If then, there is an election around the corner, every person in this province should make this their tantamount election issue...Put a stop to added fuel surcharges on the Marine Atlantic run.

More on this one to come!

Regards,

George

Numbers are up but only slight increases expected

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, August 25, 2009- Last week’s surprise draw on inventory will translate into some minor increases in fuel prices when the Public Utilities Board moves to adjust prices this coming Thursday, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“The numbers are not too bad in the wake of market activity over the past two weeks. We witnessed a movement upwards in crude oil prices from $69 US a barrel, reaching a high of almost $74 US and a slight retreat to Tuesday's price of $71.55 US a barrel. Spot prices for most fuels also showed that there was only slight movement upwards in the prices for refined commodities”, said Murphy.

In the numbers
“The numbers show a slight increase to all fuels, some too close to call whether there will be any movement at all in price. Heating and stove oils show an increase of 85/100ths of a cent, gasoline shows an increase of 1.5 cents a litre while diesel fuel shows a bare one tenth of a cent increase. With the margin of error of three tenths, diesel fuel may in fact show a slight decrease, if no change at all.

Hurricane Bill brings questions
“It remains to be seen whether Environment Canada will see the data on Hurricane Bill and announce it as landing as a category one hurricane. While I haven’t heard if the North Atlantic refinery faced any difficulties with the hurricane the other day, it begs to question if, in the future more hurricanes will race into the coastline of the province affecting the viability of the placement of refining facilities in Newfoundland and Labrador coastal waters. We know what hurricanes did to Gulf of Mexico refineries in 2005 in the wake of Katrina and Rita. I believe that this is going to be a paramount issue in the further development of onshore processing of crude oils in the future if in fact there is going to be a distinct change in weather patterns that will bring hurricanes closer to Newfoundland and Labrador waters.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member

Oil on the edge of collapse?

A lot of breaking news stories seem to be following the trend that I detected some time ago that was fully leading to another collapse in oil prices, and, for some at least, it couldn't happen at a better time.

So, what evidence is there that a collapse is possibly in the works?

Let's look back at the last few weeks to set this one up for you and help you draw that mental picture....

Fact #1: While we have been witness to a small spike in prices during this summer that saw gasoline here in Newfoundland and Labrador reach $1.10.4 a litre just the other day here in St. John's, we simply didn't see a large increase in demand based from prices a lot lower than they were the same time last year. Demand for gasoline has remained flat and now we are at the end of the summer driving season and not a hurricane in sight of the Gulf of Mexico.

Fact #2: Just today, US consumer confidence, in a survey done by Reuters and the University of Michigan and reported by Bloomberg, conclude that consumers south of the border continue to be skeptical over any economic recovery. That means that consumers aren't going to be buying and a delay in any recovery of the economy.

Fact #3: The Energy Information Administration reported a good build in crude oil inventory, albeit a small draw on gasoline. The report also concludes that refiner capacity has dropped again to 83.5 per cent from last week's numbers. Refiners are trying to keep ahead of the massive drop in consumer demand and they're also trying to reign back production so they don't overdo it with current supply. The numbers for distillate fuels don't look much better. Demand for both heating oils and jet fuels has crashed again this week ending the summer dream of increased profits for Big Oil.

Fact #4: The price for Brent type crude oil has surpassed West Texas Intermediate, now resting some Three dollars above WTI as of today. Basically, there is too much inventory floating around, not only in onshore storage tanks but also in tankers, simply waiting for the value of WTI to increase and/or be consumed. It's not!

So, what to expect in the coming weeks?

Look for a mass retreat in prices that some are predicting will bring prices back to where they were in April. Cheap to the consumer and murder on the provincial and federal treasury!
At least, from this perspective, here's hoping the news comes to fruition! It's going to be a couple more weeks before we feel it at the pumps but, needless to say I think we've hit the summer peak.

Regards,

George

All numbers up for Thursday
Gasoline, diesel, heating and stove oils to increase

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, August 11, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see prices for all petroleum products increase this coming Thursday morning when the Public Utilities Board moves to adjust prices.

“Other areas of the country have already been hit with increases in prices. We’re no different here. The numbers are showing an increase of 3.67 cents a litre on heating and stove oils, a 4.4 cent a litre increase to diesel fuels and a four cent a litre increase coming on gasoline pricing,” said George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“An increase in oil prices coupled with a US drop in refinery capacity along with the falling US dollar are to blame this time around, even though there has been no increase in demand. What I do see here is an attempt by the US refining industry to control output with demand factors. Refinery capacity has dropped over the past three weeks from close to 88 per cent to almost 84 per cent of capacity and that means pressure on refined commodities.

“Pare with that the fact that there are some inflation fears in the markets meaning a heavier level of investment in commodities rather than the US dollar. That’s why the Canadian dollar has gained some strength in recent weeks. The basic spot price has been insulated a little as a result and the increase in gasoline prices for example, has been mitigated somewhat. Consumers in the US have seen an increase of almost thirty cents a US gallon while we’ll be looking at a four cent a litre increase at the pumps here, or about 17 cents a US gallon.

“Last week showed its ugly head when the news of the drop in refiner capacity was published. There is a move to control output here in North America, particularly in the US according to the US Energy Information Administration. The drop translated into a drop, albeit slight, in US gasoline inventories. It was a concerted move by the oil industry to support prices in the face of very weak demand in spite of lower prices as compared to last years numbers.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers are up!

All The data isn't in quite yet. There is one more day to go.

However, there is enough data to show for increases coming down the pipes for this Thursday as a result of market activity this past two weeks. While the interrupt scenario thankfully didn't play out, the rise in the cost of oil will play into your pocketbook later this week.

One more day to go, like I say, but here's what I have so far.

• Heating and stove oils are up by 3.51 cents per litre.
• Diesel (9 days of data) shows up by 4.3 with taxes in, and...
• Gasoline is up by 3.7 cents a litre.

Just a final note here. The last price change showed i was off somewhat from the actual that occurred here and I have not taken that into account in the final summation of my numbers. The actual increase to gasoline might vary somewhat higher than what I will have here now, let alone that of tomorrow night when i post again with what I have. This one is just to keep you all ahead of the game.

Oh well!

Time to hit the pumps again!

Regards,

George

Just in case, you might want to top off the tank!

My numbers don't show interruption to gasoline pricing is definite, that's first off...

However, the last two trading days have me a little concerned as to how much volatility there was in the markets since the last pricing adjustment last week.

When the last numbers came out, and only showing a 3/10ths of a cent a litre increase, I had it different by a full cent. That's leading me to believe that there was possibly enough market volatility over the past few days to warrant something happening with the numbers that I can't track.

Of particular interest are the last two days on the markets that put gasoline spot prices over 60 cents a litre from my last average of 53.87 cents just a week ago. Yes, a full six cents since the last adjustment.

Faulty data over the weekend is the kicker. I haven't been able to get hold of the prices between Friday and Sunday night that could spell it out in the numbers for sure. In other words, while the last two days are well over those required for interrupt to occur, I can't predict that it will happen on Thursday as a certainty. So far, my base average for the days I do have put it close to interrupt territory.

Another clue that it might?...

The base price of West Texas Intermediate, which I take a measure of, has increased by almost eight bucks a barrel...

Enough said!...

I think I'd be apt to hit the pumps Wednesday night, just in case prices do move Thursday morning. In the event they don't move pricing up this Thursday, you can be darned sure that if the market trend does keep up, we'll be looking at substantial increases next week.

Regards,

George

Numbers show 'up a little"

With all the goings on at my place these last two weeks, I really haven't had the time to do a lot of posting and tracking of the news in the oil markets.

I have had the time however, to go though the numbers and see what's in store for the consumers out there in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Here's what I have for Thursday morning:

• Heating and stove oils to increase by 1.55 cents per litre.
• Diesel to increase by 1.6 or 1.7 cents per litre, and...
• Gasoline to increase by 1.6 cents per litre.

The US dollar lost against other world currencies over the past two weeks and that resulted in heavy investment in commodities like oil, driving those prices upwards over the time frame. Oil gained almost $8 US barrel since July 14th.

One side effect was that the Canadian dollar also was one of those currencies that gained ground a s a result of the investment in oil, with the dollar gaining over three cents against the US greenback.

Anyway, prices will be up slightly, not that it wasn't predicted to be like that with some volatility over the summer!

Hope it all helps!

Regards,

George

No increase in prices this week

Watching the markets the past few days probably made some people a little nervous, especially in the thinking that with a rise in oil prices of almost $4.50 US a barrel.

My email has been littered with the question "If"...

Here's the reality...

The numbers are not there for interruption to prices to occur. Both heating and stove oils as well as diesel, are now at "break even" with neither an increase or decrease showing in the numbers.

Gasoline prices show down by a half cent, so far...

While spot prices for all the fuels I measure has gone up a little, we are still a little under the average for the last price setting this week. Keep in mind that, if the trend continues, we may see a slight bump in prices at the next price setting next week, that's if the numbers allow for it and we see the price of the refined comodities take off again. This latest run-up has been caused by positive economic news out of Chine and a decrease in the US dollar. Of course, whenever we see the US dollar slide, it's a sign that traders will start investing in commodities like refined oil products, as a hedge against inflation.

Hope this will clear the air a little?

Any questions, drop me a note...

Regards,

George

So, where are prices going from here?

It's a nice summer morning here in St. John's, especially nicer after hearing the news that fuel prices are down; and a lot of questions from people asking if the downwards trend will continue...

Here's hoping! The evidence is certainly pointing towards "steady as she goes" and also "down" in the best of scenarios. If I were an oil trader, I think I would quit, let's put it that way.

Right now, the news is not good if you are an oil man. With waning consumer demand for gasoline and another build in inventories this week, it's hard to wonder why there should be any price increase in the foreseeable future. The fact that North American drivers just aren't buying to the same degree that a lower price should dictate, should be a forewarning to most of the change that drivers are facing. Consumers are not cutting back on consumption because of price, they are doing it out of necessity that the economic situation is bringing to them. Prices for gasoline are now about 35 per cent lower than the same time period last year, yet demand, is recorded at a mere 6/10ths of a percentage point above last years numbers.

Consumers can't spend because of the uncertainty of the ongoing economic recession. I like to call this "enforced conservation" a new economic term you'll soon be hearing about in your favorite business news network or late night TV host!

Enter the ongoing prospect of an oil glut in the markets. While the data from the US Energy Information Administration showed a draw on US inventory, the same still shows a huge 47 million barrel surplus in stock in holding tanks that should be heavily drawn upon during summer months of the past. The word from OPEC is that they produced some 57,000 barrels per day more than their own self-imposed quotas during the month of June and this is only now coming into the North American inventory grid. Talks are abounding of $45 a barrel US oil in August, not heard for a long time during peak summer driving season. Some experts like Philip Verlager are even predicting $20 US a barrel oil and an imminent collapse in prices this winter at best.

Also adding to the downwards pressure on gasoline pricing in the coming weeks is a pick-up in US refinery capacity, up again this week to almost 88 per cent. With added capacity and waning demand, why would I as a trader even bother investing? There's no return here.

The only possibility of upwards pressure on oil will have to come from here but, right now, it's showing just like a St. John's July 16th morning : Nothing but clear skies!

The trend of falling prices might be around for a while. The news from the Alberta oil fields won't be all good if that's the case.

Hope this answers a few questions out there?

Regards,

George

Update #2

Final Numbers

Here's what I have to come for Thursday morning with all fourteen days of data on hand:

• Heating and stove oils to drop by 4.79 a litre.
• Diesel down by 4.7 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline to drop by 6.3 cents a litre.

I tried to get a copy of the press release posted but, for some ungodly reason, it wouldn't allow me.

The old "copy and paste thing just didn't do it this time. It's something I'll have to work on, I guess!

Hmmm....

Regards,

George

Update #1

Numbers still showing "down"

Numbers are still reflecting the big drop in spot prices last week and they will impact all prices this week (Thursday) when the Public Utilities Board sets prices for the next pricing period.

Here's what I have with thirteen days of data at hand.

• Heating and stove oils are down by 4.55 cents a litre.
• Diesel is down by 4.5 or 4.6 cents a litre with taxes in, and...
• Gasoline is down by 6.1 cents a litre.

One more day to go here but there may be no more real changes in pricing other than what I have. Another day may mean a couple more tenths off these numbers.

I'll post another update for everyone tomorrow evening and post the press release too.

Regards for now!

George

The week so far...

Here's a little update on the numbers I have. After the disappointing finish up to Tuesday, I think maybe I should keep everyone in tune as to what is transpiring out there...

First off, as regards to the possibility earlier this week that the PUB may use the interrupter formula, I'm not surprised that they never.

I'm more surprised that they didn't have the market volatility to show a more significant drop that would have allowed the formula to be used. In other words, that their numbers reflected more than four cents for the formula to kick in.

In the end, my numbers showed an exact 3.77 cents a litre downwards, just shy of the required four cents for interruption to occur.

Yes, it sucks to be out by that much but, that's the rule that is used.

An important point here to remember is that, while other jurisdictions see an almost immediate drop in prices relected in their respective markets because of the competative nature of their markets, our numbers are usually hit the pumps roughly a week later if they meet criteria for interruption. (We can only wish for competition here in Newfoundland and Labrador to be the final arbitor of the retail petroleum price!)

Conversely, whenever there is an increase in other respective markets, these increases are also immediate to their various areas and we then see any respective increases about a week after the event occurs. Here, we also take a two week (one week during interrupt scenarios) average of price movements before any alowable increase or decrease is passed on and that timeframe is also taken into account simply to allow any movements in pricing to "work itself out" as during the Katrina and Rita hurricane events of August and September 2005.

Other centers saw gouging to the point that some retailers in the Stratford, Ontario region charged upwards of $2.25 a litre for gasoline.

Halifax and the area there saw $1.89 a litre until word got out that the prices at the pump outweighed the spot prices of the day and we got onto them.

The fact is, is that we hit $1.48 a litre here in St. John's because we were regulated. Prices didn't change as much as the companies wanted them to fir the simple reason that the PUB waited an extra day to let the market work itself out, and it did.

I'm getting off-track here again...lol

Anyway, just to keep you all up to speed on what I have with nine days done and still five more days to go:

• Heating and stove oils are pointing down by 3.50 cents per litre.
• Diesel is down by 3.4 a litre and...
• Gasoline now shows down by 5.1 cents a litre.

My guess for the result after the full fourteen days are in?

• Heating and stove oils down by 4.5 cents a litre.
• Diesel down by 5.0 cents a litre and...
• Gasoline down by 6.5 cents a litre.

See how close they'll be after Tuesday night!

Anyone else care to take a shot at it?

Regards,

George

Oh well...No suprise that prices didn't drop

I'm irked...

Maybe I should just keep quiet every time I get a way of thinking and keep my thoughts to myself. No suprise that I'm a little disappointed though but in hopeful expectations for next weeks price setting nonetheless.

After Tuesday, I thought that the numbers would show those for interruption.

Didn't happen...

Numbers here showed a good start to a price drop but, for some reason, and I'm still looking into it, the drop showed a "stall" and the numbers averaged out to be 3.77 cents a litre down, just a mere 23/100ths away from the required four cents a litre for interruption to occur. Another day and things would have kicked in.

It was painful to watch the numbers come up on the calculator!

So, we have to wait for the regular price setting fornext week it seems because we know that the Ultramars, ESSO's, Irvings and North Atlantics aren't going to drop prices ahead of time on their own!

Use it sparingly for the next six days anyway. So far, with Wednesday data in, numbers are now showing close on a nickel down at the pumps. If oil continues to drop in the days leading up to the 14th, then the drop at the pumps could be significantly more.

Regards,

George