Speculators...Beware!

Consumers here won't see any break at the pumps this week, but numbers for the next pricing session are starting to show the cracks in the economy, so far showing three cents a litre down.

People are also starting to feel the future pinch, if my figuring is right.

Refined commodity prices started to take a downwards turn, in spite of the drop in oil prices, as a result of signs of waning demnd and an increase in inventories of all refined products.

There was also a gain in overall crude oil supply that could be very telling, with peak summer deand and a build in inventory, the prospects for oil profiteering haven't been this low in months. With the talk of "recession" entering the markets again today, it looks like summer is shot to the speculators.

If oil keeps losing value, we just might see the Public Utilities Board have to use the rate adjustment formula to knock back electricity prices again...(Yeah...right!)

Stay tuned....

George

All quiet on the western economic front?

Hi to all…

Short and sweet with all seven days data in.

No big changes again this week as the US debt problem continues to spread uncertainty amongst all markets.

Continued evidence that shows US economic recovery is stalling has also resulted in a faltering price for oil and a drop as well in the Canadian dollar against its US cousin. Even though oil prices have been dropping, the Canadian dollar has also, negating any drop in consumer fuel prices, but also preventing any gains to prices as well.

Here’s what I have for price changes this week:

• · Heating and stove oils show a decline of just 11/100ths of a cent.

• · Diesel shows a drop of 6/10ths and…

• · Gasoline shows “no change”.

That’s it for this week.

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices

The numbers so far this week...

Don't look for any changes in prices this week, that's if the markets still show "steady as she goes" in tomorrow's trading...

A shaky economic recovery added some downwards pressure and then the debt deal in the US added an up side, negating any possible decreases, let alone increases, to consumers this week so far.

Here's what I have for the price changes this Thursday, with one more day to go:

• Heating and stove oils show down by 19/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel shows down by 6/10ths, and...
• Gasoline shows an even zero to come.

I'll be back tomorrow night with a full breakdown.

Shortages in Nova Scotia

In the meantime, a shortage of regular gasoline in Nova Scotia has some wondering what's happening with prices this week.

The short answer is "nothing so far".

Gasoline prices there are measured the same way as they are here, by NYMEX pricing, and those numbers show no change, like I said. It's a good case for having regulation of fuel prices, to prevent any binge pricing from entering the markets.

The shortage of gasoline is caused by a refinery outage by an Ultramar refinery that was shut down earlier than anticipated by a lightning storm. Power outages, or hits, could cause a refinery to have to take up to a week to restart, but a planned maintenance outage played into the plans as well, and all before supplies could be purchased from elsewhere.
See the CBC story on the shortages here or see it at www.cbc.ca/ns

Ultramar is trying to top up supplies via a New Brunswick refinery through a 'reciprocal sales agreement, a type of agreement that our group considers contrary to the rules of free and open competition. In essence, refineries choose to close up refineries and share from other company's supplies, negating competition between companies.

When the Competition Bureau allowed an agreement we contested in 1998, they told us it was too late to stop it, and the arrangement between companies was allowed to continue.

Just another reason for a new Competition Act and a Bureau that won't be afraid to intervene on the behalf of consumers in this country...

That's it for now!

See you tomorrow evening!

George

Numbers down very slightly

Canadian dollar limits gain in oil prices

Media release

Conception Bay South, July 26, 2011- While oil prices have crept upwards in recent days, refined commodity numbers are showing a slight decline, and that should prove to be to the benefit of consumers when the PUB adjusts prices this coming Thursday. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher with the consumer group for Fair Gas Prices.

“The Canadian dollar has gained almost two cents against the US greenback this past week, and that allowed for a slight retreat to show in the numbers for this week. All numbers, as modest as they are, are showing downwards for this week’s impending price change,” said Murphy.

The numbers

“Heating and stove oils show a drop of 25/100ths and distillate also shows downwards by 4/10ths. Gasoline shows a drop of 8/10ths of a cent on the way to consumers this time around.”

“Troubles with the deals between the Democrats and Republicans south of the border played heavy against the US dollar as investors became concerned that there would not be a deal between the Republicans and the US President Obama over US Debt. Investors have been pulling their money out of the US dollar as a result and sinking back their funds into other commodities and currencies, like oil and the Canadian dollar.

The Canadian dollar also showed gains against the US dollar as a result.”

“Sovereign debt of countries remains a factor that is playing into the markets as investors are not seeing too many currencies out there that are paying dividends out for the future. Trust in the markets is making a fluid situation that has also run up the price of gold in recent days. Until investors see some trust building from countries in dealing with debt, it’s almost like they’ll be looking for a safe haven to place their funds.”

“From what I’m seeing right now, there is really no place left to run besides gold. Uncertainty remains a factor playing heavy in the markets. Uncertainty means volatility.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Six days in...

Here's what we're all looking for this week with one more day to go:

• Heating and stove oils are down by 19/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel is down by by a half cent, and...
• Gasoline shows a drop of 9/10ths of a cent.

I'll be back tomorrow night with the final numbers for this week's price change.

Regards,

George

Final numbers for Thursday show no change

Hi to all…

All seven days data in now show a zero across the board, if you take into account the margin for error I work with, 3/10ths of a cent.

See how close this one comes, out of curiosity, if nothing else.

Here’s what I have:

· Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2/100ths of a cent.

· Diesel shows a drop of 1/10^th of a cent, and…

· Gasoline shows up by 3/10ths of a cent.

That’s it!

By the way, you can now follow me on Twitter @GeorgeMurphyNDP if that interests you all.

Regards,

George Murphy

A statistical "zero"

As predicted a week ago, don't expect too much change to fuel prices this week.

Keeping in mind my working margin for error of three tenths of a cent for any numbers I do have, here's what's showing for this week:

• Heating and stove oils show a 1/10th of a cent increase.
• Diesel shows no change, and...
• Gasoline shows a half cent upwards.

One day of trading left to get before the final numbers come to fruition, but, right now, there's no change likely to any prices for Thursday, if this keeps up.

I'll let you all know.

Regards,

George

European banks step in

Relief from the debt crisis for now?

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, July 12, 2011- Consumers will again experience an upwards price adjustment to all fuels this week when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices this coming Thursday. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“The European union banks have stepped in to buy up some of the debt from some of the EU’s member countries and that has led to some relief in the financial system of some troubled Euro union countries like Portugal, Spain and Italy. Oil increased this week as a result of a more optimistic economic mood, only set off earlier in the session with a less than stellar US jobs report,” said Murphy.

“Numbers show an increase to heating and stove oils of 3.28 cents a litre with diesel rising by 4.4 cents a litre. Gasoline numbers show an increase as well by 3.6 cents a litre. There’s still a lot of volatility in the markets as there are factors preventing any meteoric rise in prices. The relief of some of the Euro member’s debts by the European Union banks may be just a temporary measure until the troubled countries get a handle on how to best resolve their various debt problems.

“About to enter the picture in the next month or so are debt problems from none other than the United States which lies some $14 trillion in the hole. With a less than spectacular jobs report added to the possibility of Obama having to introduce his own austerity measures to handle the US debt-load, we could have a scenario for future drops in oil prices as consumers adjust to higher taxation that will affect consumer spending. The possibility is there that the Chinese government already recognizes the signs of a slowdown and they are trying to increase interest rates to stymie an ever-increasing rate of inflation. Manufacturing there is slowing as a result.

“I don’t see a steady increase in fuel prices in the immediate future. We’re mere weeks away from the first Atlantic hurricane as an excuse for investors, and we’re almost through the half-way point of the summer driving season. It looks like the projection of gasoline below $1.40 a litre for the summer is holding for now. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for the remainder of the season!”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Trouble in the markets?
Numbers up again, but for how long?

Seems that the gains that oil prices made over the last couple of days has been pared by the realities seeping into the markets.

What we saw go up, and with consumer prices going up this week, may be coming down soon.

All the data now coming in shows that oil prices could be facing their biggest challenge to stay up in price yet. A drop in crude oil imports through China along with a weaker than expected jobs report may soon play into the markets as demand for crude oil may be slipping.

While oil prices for West Texas Intermediate rose on average from last week by close on $4 US a barrel, oil has begun a slide that, for some, hopefully will continue into the next session and into refined commodities.

Just not this week...

Here's what I have for this regulatory session so far, keeping in mind that I only have five days of data on gasoline prices. The rest of the numbers cover six days of market trading:

• Heating and stove oils show an added 3.6 cents per litre.
• Diesel shows an increase of 4.2 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline shows an added 3.4 cents a litre.

Oh well...

This change will put us halfway through July with the price still below the $1.40 a litre the numbers showed as the average for the summer for the St. John's area from myself, and well below the $1.50 a litre expected by all the other analysts and speculators out there.

Remember that word "volatility" is still a factor out there...

I'll be back tomorrow night with the final numbers on what to expect for Thursday morning.

Regards,

George

Resource give-aways continue...
Welcome aboard Alberta!

See?

And you thought that the 1985 signing of the Atlantic Accord was bad, and that it was a bad thing for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians to be upset over our resources sailing away!

There's a pipeline construction project about to start in Alberta that will see almost 900,000 barrels of crude oil processed in Texas rather than inside Alberta. In context, making our offshore oil production a mere pittance against what Alberta has to export!

It's called the Keystone Project...

Canadians should be going off their heads,but there's hardly a whimper, except from the likes of some unions who are warning about the deal that would ship tons of bitumen to Texas for refining. It's just another classic example of crude oil resources going south of the border to power Uncle Sam's economy, rather than keep our own economy powered with secondary processing jobs.

The sale of this country's resources continues, and as reguards to resource giveaways, we at "gas and oil" would like to welcome aboard Alberta as being partly responsible for adding to Canada's energy shortages in the future!

On that "sour" note, I'll be in touch tomorrow evening on the trend in price changes for this coming Thursday!

Regards,

George

Consumers to take a hit

Hi to all…

Here’s the final numbers and what to expect with all seven days of data now in.

Sad to say, but after last week’s drop, they’ll be increasing again.

· Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.45 cents a litre.

· Diesel shows an added 2.1 cents a litre, and…

· Gasoline shows an added 4.5 cents a litre.

Highlights

European Union money woes

The bailout of Greece continues to weigh in the markets the last week after the Greek government passed austerity measures to pay off debt financing from the European Union. It will be some time before faith is restored enough in the financial markets of Europe to say that the financial crisis is over however. Greece has maturing debt that will probably be called in by other institutions in the next few years that some fear that Greece will eventually have to face a default situation.

In the meantime, investors poured money back into commodities from other currencies like the US dollar, and that resulted in the rise of oil prices and refined commodities.

Saudis to keep production the same

It was thought by some in the markets last week that OPEC’s leading oil producer, Saudi Arabia, would follow western nations in increasing oil production after some western nations decided to release oil from strategic reserves.

“Not so fast” now seems to be the catch phrase in the markets after word got out that the Saudis would instead reign back oil production with the US moving first to increase overall crude oil supply. The Saudis walked into a meeting of OPEC members two weeks ago asking fellow members to increase output to keep oil prices down to $90 US a barrel, but they were met with opposition to any increase in output by Iran and Venezuela.

The move by the west was designed to bring down oil prices in the hope that the timed release of oil would help replace lost Libyan oil production as well as drop the price of oil. Western leaders like President Obama of the United States openly stated that high oil prices were going to hinder any possible economic recovery and the move was an attempt to bring prices down.

Inventories drop

Crude oil and gasoline inventories took a pounding last week with total refinery production picking up to range 88% of operable capacity. The numbers pointed to a pickup in demand and a sign that consumers were buying in spite of the high price again.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices