Prices to drop Thursday

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 24, 2012- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see a large retreat in gasoline prices when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices for this Thursday. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Numbers are all down, but distillate fuels are still not showing concerted drops like I had hoped. Heating and stove oils are only forecast to drop by 87/100ths of a cent, while diesel fuel shows a modest drop of 1.8 cents a litre. The big news for consumers comes with gasoline, with that number showing a drop of 7.1 cents a litre. Keep in mind that there’s possibly a lot of volatility in the numbers,” Murphy said.

“From all appearances, gasoline is dropping because of, not only a glut of oil in the markets, but also the fact that gasoline inventories haven’t seen a large impact, even though refining capacity in the US northeast has been severely curtailed. Even though inventories were impacted by the lack of product supplied, we’re still at a point where there’s a large inventory of gasoline over the same timeframe last year. Consumers can take some heart in the fact that some of these refineries should be coming back online shortly. They still can’t be complacent over this drop in prices however, and should still show their anger by conserving as much as possible and help keep building inventories. Prices should retreat further if consumers collectively send the inventory message as a result.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyNDP

A Retreat on the Gas Front

Here's the latest for everyone watching the markets, and, if you're into it, the numbers for gasoline have been captivating!

There's a retreat happening out there with gasoline, and a lot of people are probably going to wonder why. My thinking is that, even though there have been draws on inventory, along with total product supplied also dropping, you have to come to the realization that any drop in inventories has to be "industry caused".

Just because consumers are consuming doesn't mean that they're solely responsible for the impact on inventories. If you cut back on overall supply by cutting back on the refiner's ability to produce gasoline, then any draw-down on inventories is artificial in nature and doesn't reflect the reality of the markets. My thinking here is that consumers have collectively impacted inventories as a result of consuming product, but not consuming it to the degree that the industry thought it would, because of the price that gasoline was selling for lately.

Make sense?

It will by Thursday, if you hold back on your next major purchase: See, I have gasoline dropping by 7.3 cents a litre by then, barring the fact that we still have two trading days to go.

Either way, the numbers are still going to be down, but we'll need the final two days data to really tell you how much you'll be saving when the next price setting is due to come. I'll let you all know exactly how much on Tuesday night.

You might want to tell your friends to hold back until then too...

Regards until then!

George

Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyNDP

Hello to all,

I’ll keep this one short, as there aren’t too many major changes this week around. Sorry this one comes late. I was down to Marystown doing some work, and, I’m literally just in the door. I know this one will come late as well to those on the auto emailer, so, my apologies in advance!

· Heating and stove oils show just a 4/100ths of a cent upwards movement.

· Diesel shows a 3/10ths of a cent upwards move, and…

· Gasoline is up by 1.2 cents a litre.

A hopeful sign from the markets in the last two days of trading as, in spite of oil prices supported around $104 US a barrel, numbers for gasoline have dropped from recent highs. The first five days of trading initially showed close on three cents a litre in upwards movement for this week, but since then, all numbers have been in decline. That start of a downturn may show itself to consumers next week, if the trend continues. So far, the numbers are close on four cents lower than what this week’s price settings will be.

Keep your fingers crossed, as we could see the start of a break for consumers in next week’s price setting. The trend is also showing for heating and stove oils, but still does not show in diesel numbers as of yet.

Market notes

· A good build in crude oil inventories with this week’s numbers showing an added 3.9 million barrels.

· Gasoline inventories are down by 3.7 million barrels, but gasoline inventories remain well above the average range, according to the Energy Information Administration. Oddity here is that total gasoline supplied to the markets was down by 2.8 per cent, probably indicative of a sign of Big Oil trying to keep supply and demand ‘In balance”. We’re still almost six million barrels over where we were this same time last year, so, there is no shortage.

· Another drop in distillate inventories as well, this time down by 2.9 million barrels.

· Refiner capacity was measured as 84.7 percentage points, again, down from last week.

Hope this helps everyone, and again, my apologies for the lateness of this one. Sometimes, my other duties are going to have to come first.

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Regards for now!

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyNDP

Numbers, Numbers!

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes, keeping in mind that I’m really not sure about the “gas’ number this time around. Last week, I had the numbers down but the PUB numbers showed upwards by 2.8 cents a litre.

Knowing that I had some volatility that I expected to show in prices this week, my number for gasoline does show up, but just by 9/10ths of a cent.

In this regard, because the PUB numbers were up for gasoline, I’m hoping that the “actual” that will happen is an adjustment downwards in prices for consumers this week as refined prices for gasoline has moderated somewhat against what occurred last week. Overall, my numbers over the past two weeks should show an approximate 4/10ths of a cent difference. I’m hoping that the PUB numbers will reflect that.

We’ll see. In other words, no big changes for gasoline numbers this week from me. I have to wait for these numbers for gasoline to come “back in balance”.

Other numbers

Here’s what I have for this week for the distillate fuels:

· Heating and stove oils show a drop by 1.13 cents a litre, and…

· Diesel shows down also by 1.7 cents a litre.

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That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyNDP

Numbers show no change

(Pardon the pun)

Short and sweet for this week with not much to report in the numbers.

Here’s what I have for this week;

· Heating and stove oils down by just 14/100ths of a cent.

· Diesel fuel down by 2/10ths of a cent, and…

· Gasoline shows a half cent down.

A pretty quiet week on the markets this week, so there’s nothing here in my numbers of consequence. Keep in mind that my numbers all work on a margin of error of 3/10ths of a cent a litre, so, effectively, there may be no change in distillate prices at all.

That’s it for this week!

For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyNDP

Gasoline tracks upwards again

Distillates drop

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, March 27, 2012 – Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see prices at the pumps increase again this week as the traditional build-up to the summer driving season sees investors signal the approach of warmer weather. That news comes from George Murphy, group researcher for the consumer group for Fair Gas Prices.

Nine cents off the record

“Gasoline prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange averaged close to 82.8 cents a litre last week, compared to this week’s 86.11 cents a litre. The difference here is coming to a pump near you,” Murphy said. “It means that consumers will pay close to 3.8 cents a litre more by Thursday morning, and this one hurts with prices for regular hitting $1.44 a litre for the regulated maximum price, if the numbers work out right.”

“Distillate prices are down this week, but barely, as the focus of investors has been seen to switch from the winter heating oil demand season to a focus by investors in transportation fuels. Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.11 cents a litre, while diesel fuel is projected to drop by a mere 6/10ths, but even that gives you the scope of how much resistance there is to any downward movement in distillate prices. Investors are reluctant to show their hand. But with the coming of the end of winter in the US northeast, the writing was on the wall for winter heating oil prices, and hence, the drop in distillate prices.

“How high prices will go are going to depend on how demand for gasoline plays out in the next month leading up to the US Memorial Day weekend. Consumers are going to have to conserve and make their collective voices heard by making an impact on inventories. Right now, demand is about two percent higher than the same timeframe last year, so prices are moving up along with demand. Consumers will have to send a collective message unless the effects of high energy prices start telling on the economies of business first.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Gasoline moves higher

Hi to all,

Short and sweet again this week. There’s just not enough days in the week to get a full synopsis done on oil these days.

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

• · Heating and stove oils show an added 16/100ths of a cent.

• Diesel prices show 6/10ths of a cent up, and...
• Gasoline shows an added 2.2 cents a litre upwards.
  

Oil prices showed an increase of close on $3 US a barrel this week, before today’s sudden drop back to $105.00US a barrel. While oil prices showed a retreat, the same did not show in my numbers for refined commodities. US spot prices actually climbed from $3.12.20 a US gallon to Tuesday’s $3.20.06 a US gallon, with the average, of course, coming as an increase to both US and Canadian consumers.

That’s it for now,

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyNDP