Numbers for Thursday, November 27, 2014

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.27 cents a litre.
Diesel shows down by 1.5 cents, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of just 6/10ths of a cent a litre.

Keep in mind that there's a lot of volatility out there and that the winter blend is in for heating and Diesel numbers. They may be off somewhat.

The Canadian dollar actually gained about a half penny against the US dollar the last week. And with spot prices for all fuels measured showing hardly any change, that was the difference.

However, today, while the dollar gained slightly, we also saw the start of another move downwards for oil. It could be the start of what some are predicting as a move down to $60 US a barrel for West Texas Intermediate.

In the meantime, OPEC meets on Thursday. My feeling is that they have no choice but to put a symbolic cut to production in place. If they drop production, they risk losing important customers for their oil amid growing American US domestic production now pegged at 9.1 million barrels a day.

Watch the business news on Thursday for what OPEC does. I'm still sticking to a cut of 500,000 barrels a day by OPEC.

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Numbers for Thursday, November 20, 2014

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils projected to drop by 2.96 cents a litre.
Diesel shows a drop of 1.9 cents a litre on the way, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 2.4 cents a litre.

For the previous two weeks, I have been out a little, especially last week with my numbers down while an increase came into effect. I'll blame it on volatility out there. While it was down two weeks ago, it was down much further than expected, and I'm thinking the difference added up to an increase for last week instead
.
But it looks like things will be back on track for this week again.

US domestic production of crude oil continues to set records, with the numbers amounting to nearly 9.1 million barrels a day being pumped out of the ground in the US. That's offsetting any possible cut that OPEC may be thinking. We'll find out later on the 27th if OPEC will institute any cuts, but with US domestic rising, it's not likely they will at the risk of losing market share.

At least that's the talk out of the Middle East.

I'm thinking that OPEC will make a move, but not a substantial one. I think right now they'd all be happy just to stop the fall of oil and offset any US domestic production that may come on line to add to the world glut.

George is guessing OPEC will cut by 500,000 barrels a day to try to stop the slide.

Any takers?...

We'll see what happens!

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Numbers for Thursday, November 13, 2014

Hi to all,

Hope everyone had a great Remembrance Day and that you all got out to our respective communities to help remember the sacrifice others made for us...

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils to drop by just 1/10th of a cent.
Diesel prices to increase by 4/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
Gasoline to drop by 7/10ths of a cent a litre.

Keep in mind that my heating and Diesel numbers may be off somewhat as a result of winter fuel blending!

OPEC meets November 27^th in Vienna
Surely we'd all like to be a bug on the wall at the next meeting of OPEC on November 27th when they discuss the possibilities of making production cuts to try and support the price of oil.

I know I would!

OPEC members Saudi Arabia and Iraq aren't all that fussy about making production cuts it seems, and it's doubtful if OPEC as a group would institute such a measure that would bring trouble for some of the member nations. Just think about Venezuela having to take a share of the cut with that country already facing a heavy debt and running close to a 60% inflation rate! With US domestic producers pounding out product and looking to export, it may be a new reality for OPEC that they'd be looking at market competition. According to what I'm hearing, they may take the new price of oil as the new normal for the oil markets as a result. Funny as it seems, but OPEC might not be able to compete for a long time to come.

Lower oil good for North Atlantic Refining
Here? It has to be good for our local refiner North Atlantic! One of the largest problems they had to deal with was the rising price of crude. Now that oil is a little cheaper for them, it helps the survivability of the refinery. Gas is cheaper than what it was a short time ago and crude acquisition costs are down as well.

That means jobs on an improved bottom line.

By the way. Brent closed at $80.35 US today.

That's it for now!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, November 6th, 2014

Hi to everyone,

Here's what I have for price changes this week. Keep in mind that my heating oil and Diesel numbers may be off somewhat as a result of winter blending!

In the meantime, not too much in changes this week, namely be cause of the poor performance of the Canadian dollar against the US greenback. Our "beloved" loonie lost a good 2.6 cents against the US buck in the last six days and that's accounting for a lot.

Heating and stove oils show an increase of 55/100ths of a cent a litre.
Diesel shows an added 1.3 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of just 9/10ths of a cent a litre.

An important note here with the numbers.
While there's not much of a drop to be shown with distillate prices, it's important to remember that we are in the winter demand season. In spite of lower oil, there has been limited impacts on both heating oil and diesel prices. Draws on US inventory aren't helping the matter.

Gasoline a little different as demand remains flat, even with lower prices. refiner capacity is a full seven percent below the normal due to refiners switching from gasoline refinement to distillates. When production resumes, this should add to inventories and bring prices down further.

In the meantime, I'm looking with interest at tomorrow's inventory report from the EIA, sometime around noon release on that.

Lastly, on gasoline.

Spot prices reflect the start of what may come next week. While they averaged about 67 cents this last session, today ended off about 65 cents. If that keeps going like it is, look for about another two cents "guess-timate" for next week to come.

I think the Saudi's are beginning to go for broke with the discounts on oil they're offering their US customers. The advent of huge growth in US domestic production is finally putting the pressure on OPEC pricing and the Saudi's are forced to discount to maintain their market share. Mind you, we're seeing the benefits of that and also witnessing some dissent amongst other OPEC producers who think that Saudi Arabia alone should be forced to take the majority of any production cut, should OPEC implement a cut on November 27th.

I won't overload you all with what I'm thinking is going to happen over the next few weeks. If you have any questions, drop me a note.

That's it for this week!

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, October 30, 2014

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this week's price changes:

Heating/stove oils show a drop of 1.7 cents a litre.
Diesel shows down by a penny, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 2.1 cents a litre.

The trading in oil has been a little "slick" if I can say that. I'm noting a pattern where the numbers seem to go against the real news that's out there. It's almost like a few people out there are putting in huge bids for oil just to try and support the price, hoping for the bad news to hit so they don't have to put more in.

Last week's increase in inventory should have sent oil prices well down, but they didn't. After bouncing down a few pennies, they more or less have stabilized around $81 and change US for West Texas Intermediate. You would have expected lower, considering the huge build the week previous to that. While there's a chronic sign of huge supplies out there, prices haven't fallen to match.

It's worth keeping an eye on the numbers to see how the markets react tomorrow.

Either way, consumers should expect another five cents off gasoline prices the next couple of weeks as spot prices remain about 16 cents a US gallon above what the "futures" numbers are saying, provided the markets remain steady. We'll keep an eye to that one too and see if it transpires.

That's it for this week...

Regards,

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Numbers for Thursday, October 23, 2014

Hi everyone,

Here's what I have for this week's price changes.

Not too much to report here, but refined commodities prices still remain low on the MYMEX for the week, albeit not as low as what one would have expected, considering the slight rebound in overall crude oil prices. Futures prices remain a rough 12 cents a US gallon lower than spot pricing that I track, so there's still an "unknown" amount coming down the pipes somewhere yet to come.

Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.53 cents a litre on the way.
Diesel shows down by a penny, and..
Gasoline is down just 8/10ths of a cent on a litre.

It's still up in the air on exactly how much oil will still drop, or if it is going to drop further. Some improvement over China manufacturing numbers helped to support oil prices the last two days, but the economic situation in the European Union still remains at question. Add to this the latest EIA inventory report tomorrow. If there's a draw of oil against US inventory, look for West Texas prices to increase. The same would go for refined commodity prices. My "fear" is that consumers saw cheaper prices overall at the pumps the last week or so, and probably consumed enough to cause a kick-back in inventories this week.

We'll see what happens around 12 noon Wednesday, see if this string of price drops continues!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA 

Numbers for Thursday, October 16, 2014

As promised, the final numbers for Thursday's price changes:

Again, keep in mind that heating and diesel numbers may be off because of the winter blending of fuels!

Heating and stove oils to drop by 2.56 cents a litre.
Diesel to drop by 2.7 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline to drop by 6.8 cents a litre.

These numbers are very volatile, but downwards!

OPEC may not cut, but will probably end up competing against each other for market share. That may cause them to split. Venezuela is wanting a meeting to institute cuts to help support its own treasury, but others such as Algeria are not agreeable to those cuts and would rather ride out the storm. It's interesting to watch!

In the meantime, US domestic production is again playing a huge role with the EIA again measuring production reaching 8.83 million barrels a day. I saw figures last week measuring output at 9.01 million barrels. The truth probably lies in the middle somewhere.

While all that goes on, expect prices to continue to decline to the consumer over the next week at least! I'll keep you up to date!

Pass the word everyone! Prices are going down!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Timing is everything...

Whenever I get the chance to speak in the House of Assembly, I do. I do it with gusto, passion and my constituents in mind.

Such was the case when I rose in the House to speak to the budget in 2012. The occasion was to debate government's notion to budget oil at $112 US a barrel.

I remember it well, although in the debate, it was only afterwards you realize that sometimes timing is everything, and that even my own timelines can be set off somewhat. I worried that day over the huge expanse of US domestic production and what it could mean for the province if it kept on the path of budgeting based on future oil output and pricing projections.

It would potentially cost us dearly...

Now, mind you, any government can budget around those numbers and the expectations of the oil markets, but to maintain spending at those levels may be foolhardy. Services like healthcare are still in growing need, schools still need to be replaced and roads built. Expectations are still there...

I argued that day what was starting to happen: that US domestic production of oil was fast increasing to the point that OPEC influence on price would be affected and that we may not see the trend until it hit us where it hurts. My "game day" scenario saw us not budgeting on anything over $100 US a barrel.

In the Muskrat Falls debate later that year in December also saw me using the same points, that we would be better off realizing that the slow climb to Nalcor's $145 US a barrel would be a pipe dream. I argued the case for natural gas onshore for electrical generation, taking stranded gas offshore, and using that also as a source of revenue. Others were shipping and exporting LNG, so why not us, and generate needed electricity as well at the same time?

Again in 2013 budget debate, I argued that Brent should be priced between $95 and $100 US for the fiscal year ending in March. Not a cent above, because of the same US domestic production figures that would affect the markets. US domestic would affect the markets so much, and so much oil would be available, that the price of Brent would be dragged to a lower selling point...

Now it has come to fruition, and there's not a darn thing even OPEC can do about it.  If they cut output, they deprive their citizens of revenue and work. They run the risk of further Middle East instability with OPEC stability itself at question.

Countries worldwide have their own domestic supplies spelled out for them in deep underground shale reserves, and the final arbiter to future prices may be about to speak in the form of China and India. For recently, I think it was back in March of 2012, China entered into an exploration and development agreement with Royal Dutch Shell to develop it's own shale reserves. If you consider that the present US shale explosion only started in 2005, there may be very little time to keep China as a customer for oil and to keep it as an important measure in determining what's left of theories expounding world oil prices. For if China does develop both oil and gas reserves, it would also have broken part of its own dependency on Russia and others from OPEC countries for its important energy needs, and that important factor in "supporting" oil prices removes itself from the markets. And at development costs that range $19US per well, how can they say no?

I'll give China five years to come on-stream.

The same can be said for India, who sit on massive natural shale gas reserves in their northeast region...

Nothing like "self-sufficiency" and a chance at breaking OPEC dependency!...

Are witnessing the death of high oil prices? Other factors have yet to play in the face of the present glut of product. Things like shutting down exploration and development of present finds, changing geo-political situations or economic slowdowns that have yet to play through.

What you're witnessing, as far as I'm concerned, is Big Oil getting a dose of reality; that others outside can now call the shot and determine what prices are good for economic development and consumers alike. It's something that's been missing from the markets since OPEC formed all those years ago, and a lesson that OPEC won't soon forget! Competition...

Nor should we forget.

Just don't lose sight that we're still going to need to develop alternate sources of energy that can completely remove us from fossil fuels. Just because we don't have to pay higher price for oil for a time to come doesn't mean we should lose sight of that. We need alternatives more than ever...

I'll be back later tonight with a post with this Thursday's price changes. Look for all numbers to be down!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Hold off! Numbers for Thursday, October 9, 2014

Here they are, the numbers for Thursday with all the data in...

Again, just a reminder that the heating oil and Diesel numbers may be off somewhat because of winter blending that I can't track, so use those numbers as a rough indicator only!

Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.3 cents a litre.
Diesel shows a drop of 1.8 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 5.2 cents a litre.

Futures numbers are based on delivery of refined goods 45 days from now. If I go by those, there's still considerable downwards pressure in the next couple of weeks for fuels, but particularly gasoline prices. Futures numbers there traded today around $2.36 a US gallon. If I convert that to Canadian values, it could mean another 5.6 cents a litre yet to come to your pockets...IF all goes accordingly...

Keep conserving everywhere, and we can all make a bigger impact here!

Brent crude closed today at $91.73 US a barrel.

I'm keeping an eye out for anything else that might transpire in the coming days, but that drop in gasoline looks pretty good, especially with more on the way if all holds true...

Feel free to pass this one along to everyone!...Everywhere!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Numbers for Thursday price changes

Hello to everyone,

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:
Heating and stove oils expected to rise by 1.25 cents a litre.
Diesel expected to rise by 9/10ths of a cent, and...
Gasoline shows an added 3.4 cents a litre.

*Note that I believe it is this Thursday where the winter blend for heating and Diesel fuels comes into effect, so the numbers for those fuels may be slightly off as a result of the new blend. Use those numbers as a rough indicator only.

The markets were a little choppy this last period with everything from sell-offs of oil interests to refinery shut-downs in the US northeast and eastern Canada. That's why we're looking at a sharp jump in gasoline prices this week, along with some of the distillate fuels. That, and the other downside factor of the strength in the US dollar. Because there's such insecurity over world markets still, and slow worldwide economic recovery (if any) outside the US, their dollar has been gaining an awful lot of strength against the Canuck Buck. We've lost 1.2 cents against the US dollar just this last week!

On the positive end, I don't expect those prices to stick for next week. Already, the markets are starting to take notice of an impending glut in the worldwide markets and that has sent all crude oil prices to the downside that consumers should start to notice shortly.

The sharp increase to Libyan production this last week, all in spite of some unrest there has sent Brent prices down. Speculators, especially those selling hedge funds into those markets, have been pulling out from their long positions now that the writing is on the wall as regards to an abundance of crude out there. US domestic production has hit another record with the EIA estimating overall US numbers hitting close on 8.9 million barrels a day.

I'll leave it at that, but right now, speculators are now betting on lower oil!

Feel free to share this!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, September 25, 2014

Hello everyone,

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.18 cents a litre.
Diesel fuel is expected to drop by 1.6 cents a litre,and...
Gasoline showing a small increase of 8/10ths of a cent a litre.

The amazing strength of the US dollar has probably come about as the result of the weakness of the overall world economy. With consumer demand remaining "lackluster", it would be good reason for investors to start placing their faith in the strongest of currencies.

Until such a time as any signs of world economic activity picking up, expect commodities like oil and gold to continue to show weakness.

How long can that be expected remains a question in itself though, and perhaps a topic I'll pick up on another time!

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA 

Price changes for Thursday, September 18, 2014

Hello everyone;

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils expected to drop by 1.48 cents a litre.
Diesel to drop by 1.5 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline to drop by 2.2 cents a litre.

Crude oil rose for the first time in two weeks as OPEC's secretary Abdulla El-Badri speculated that producers within the organization may institute production cuts at its next meeting in Vienna in November. The Saudi Arabian oil minister, Ali Al-Naimi however said just last week that there was no need for any production cut as he expects oil demand to pick up later this fall as demand for heating oil picks up to meet expected colder weather.

Other than that this week, a cut to world oil demand was expected in the next year by the International Energy Agency. No doubt, consumers are still upset with elevated prices and demand for fuels such as gasoline and distillates remains flat. Huge numbers in increases in US domestic production will continue to influence oil prices ahead of what OPEC may do. In spite of OPEC's talk about a possible production cut, I don't expect to see an increase anytime soon to all fuels as a result of the availability of oil product.

That's it for this week! Feel free to pass this note around!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Numbers for Thursday, September 11, 2014

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes…

Nothing major this week, next to the fact that Brent crude is slipping further due to lower China manufacturing numbers and a not-so-steady ceasefire in the Ukraine. Lower than expected growth numbers in GDP amongst European Union countries also has the European markets worried over another dip into another Eurozone crisis.

Heating and stove oils can expect a 7/10ths of a cent a litre drop.

Diesel fuel shows a drop of just a half penny, and…

Gasoline shows an added 3/10ths of a cent a litre.

Margin for error +/-3/10ths of a cent.

The Canadian dollar also finished slightly lower against the US greenback, finishing this pricing session at $1.1012 against its southern neighbor. Inventories there last week reported a drop of 900K barrels of crude oil and 2.3 million barrels of gasoline due to a turnaround of refinery runs to distillate fuels.

Distillate fuels that include heating, stove oils and diesel showed an increase of just 600K barrels.

In case you’re all still following the Muskrat issue, here’s an interesting one from the EIA that speaks about over 4300 megawatts of added electricity capacity to the grid recently. That’s in the first half of 2014…

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, August 28, 2014

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils down by just 2/100ths of a cent.
Diesel to drop by just 1/10th of a cent a litre, and...
Gasoline to increase by 2.5 cents a litre.

While oil prices were holding somewhat steady, they did increase slightly for West Texas Intermediate crude. What I did notice was a decrease in gasoline inventories last week which may have influenced the upward move of gasoline immediately before the Labour Day weekend.

See you all next week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, August 21, 2014

Greetings from St. George's-Stephenville East where I'm out here working!

Here's what I have for Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils show down by 1.38 cents a litre....
Diesel is also forecast to drop by 1.5 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline is forecast to drop by 1.4 cents a litre.

Oil started to take another tumble with the news that the Kurds have again taken the Mosul Dam area off the ISIS forces in the area, lessening the threat to some more of Iraq's oilfields. That sent Brent and WTI prices lower, but kept the Canadian dollar down along with it against the US greenback...

Sure would love to see a build in inventories again tomorrow. It will help to keep the downwards pressure on oil if it were to show consumers were still not driving demand of gasoline or heating fuels!

That's it from this side!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
 

Price changes for Thursday, August 14, 2014

Sorry for any inconvenience last week. I was out of town and couldn't post the numbers! I hope you all got them from my Twitter feed in spite of!

With all data in, here's what I have for this week's price changes:

Heating and stove oils show an added 55/100ths of a cent a litre.
Diesel fuel adds 6/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
Gasoline adds just 7/10ths of a cent a litre.

Again this week, the Canadian dollar lost about a half cent against the US greenback. The Markets remain relatively steady in spite of word of further US involvement in Iraq. Most of the market pressures off Middle East influences can be directly attributed to the fact that US domestic supply has become an important player in determining the "off-influence" prices we're seeing today.

Simple fact is that, while there is trouble in the Middle East, supplies are secure in North America as a result of the growth in US domestic production.

Security of supply...

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, July 31, 2014

Hi to all,

Been really busy, so, excuse the lateness of this...

Public Accounts Committee work and constituency matters have to come first, after all...lol

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes. Keep in mind that my margin for error is 3/10ths of a cent +/-

Heating and stove oils show an added 1.58 cents a litre on the way.
Diesel shows an added 1.9 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows just 2/10ths of a cent increase at the pumps.

The increase in Middle east violence deserves some watching, but still hasn't affected oil prices to the point of increasing them. Refined commodities are up slightly on investors looking forward to the winter heating season. That's why you see Diesel up as well, being part of that same distillate group of fuels.
Gasoline mostly steady as a result of continued bullish increases in inventory. I believe that consumers are still upset with the high prices we have been seeing still, and they should be!

The Canadian dollar has also lost some ground against the US dollar over the last week. Worrisome maybe, but for every penny we lose against the US greenback, we lose a penny at the pumps. We lost a clear penny since last Tuesday's measure.

I'll keep it at that this week, but if you have any questions, feel free to drop me a note!

Regards to all,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA 

Price changes for Thursday, July 24, 2014

Hi to all,

All numbers are in, and, as I said earlier, don't expect much in the way of price changes.
Here's what I have for this Thursday:

Heating and stove oils to increase by just 4/100ths of a cent.
Diesel to increase by 3/100ths of a cent, and...
Gasoline to drop a half penny.

My margin for error is 3/10ths, so take it from there. No panic this week!

At least we won't see a wild increase. Fourth week in a row to see a drop in gasoline prices, as little as it might be.

Highlights
The Canadian dollar remained relatively steady against its US counterpart with the Canuck Buck averaging $1.074 against the US currency.

The price of oil gained an average of $3 US on the markets as continuing violence in the Middle East as well as the diplomatic tension created with the crash of Malaysia 17 in the Ukraine. Some fears in the markets are mostly centered around Brent prices as Europe is heavily dependent upon Russian exports of oil as well as natural gas through the Ukraine region. As you can tell by the numbers in the price changes, there was little effect on spot prices, which remained relatively steady on the refined spot markets.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, July 17th, 2014

Hi to everyone,

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils to drop by just 81/100ths of a cent a litre.
Diesel to drop by 1.1 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline to drop by 1.6 cents a litre.

The Canadian dollar dropped a penny on average against the US greenback over this pricing session. That, in essence, cost consumers a rough penny in the numbers. While they're all down, the numbers give you a sense of how the Canadian dollar is so tied to raw export of resources. Not only do we ship out jobs, but it cost us to do it. In this case, while the price of oil has slipped some this past week, the support for the dollar has weakened as a result.

So endeth the economic lesson for today!

We can enjoy the lower price anyway, but at a cost...

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA 

Price Changes for July 10, 2014

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this week's changes. Looks like we can keep some "klink" in our pockets at the end of the week!

Heating and stove oils show a drop of 2.92 cents a litre on the way.
Diesel shows a drop of 2.7 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 1.7 cents a litre.

Libyan exports have started, and that's added close to another 560,000 barrels of Brent crude to the markets. While oil prices declined, it seemed that attacks by the ISIS militants has not affected any exports from Iraq as well.

Good news for further exports entering the markets, and the more available out there, the less problems getting hold of the stuff.

The only downside here is that while prices for oil are slipping, the Canadian dollar is starting to lose a little ground against the US dollar. In other words, while prices decline, they may slow...

That's it for this week!

Regards to all,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA