Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes. I'll apologize in advance for the lack of any market news. There simply wasn't any time for market analysis this week.
*Heating and stove oils will increase by 3/10ths of a cent a litre.
*Diesel prices to drop by 1/10th of a cent, and...
*Gasoline prices to increase by 8/10ths of a cent.
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, August 25, 2016
Hi to all,
As predicted, there's not much change in the numbers.
All are up.
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
...
As predicted, there's not much change in the numbers.
All are up.
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
...
*Heating and stove oils to increase by 3.9 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel to increase by 3.8 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 4.8 cents a litre at the pumps.
Market highlights
Iran to join talks in Algeria
*In a surprise to the markets today, Iran is said to have written a letter to fellow OPEC members letting them know that they will join talks with other OPEC and non-OPEC members in the possibility of instituting a production freeze.
World oil producers are still trying to deal with an excess of supply in the markets, and it is widely believed that a freeze in worldwide oil production will help alleviate the present drop in prices.
The news today help take oil prices out of negative territory and oil ended with a gain on the day.
Oil inventories lower
Last week's inventory news out of the US was for some a surprise as buth oil and gas supplies took a dip last week all against market expectations.
Gasoline inventories took a drop of 2.7 million barrels in last week's report with oil also down by 2.6 million barrels.
I'll leave it at that for this week.
Regards to all,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
That was the release I sent out a little while ago...
The news out of Iran today was a little surprising, I will admit.
In case you missed it, the Iranians are now talking about attending the "freeze" meeting set for Algeria in late September...
Curious though is the effect of making an announcement like that today a full month ahead of the scheduled meeting. Perhaps the Iranians now know what kind of influence the now hold in the markets, but even more curious knowing that they have been taking on the Saudi's at their own game with discounting to their favorite Asian customers almost a side-act.
Be that as it may, Iraq still enters a new realm in the markets with their announcement the other day that they have reached an export deal with the Kurds in the north where exports have been shut in from the Kirkuk fields. With oil down yesterday on the immediate addition of upwards of 200,000 barrels a day in output, it was no surprise to see Iran respond with their own "influence" shot to gain back some attention again.
But keep looking south, but not just south...
With rising oil, US rig counts have again increased for the tenth week out of eleven measured. The fact that oil is still supported close to $50 Brent and $48 WTI, tells me to expect another week of a double-digit increase in rig counts in the next week or two. Resiliency is showing itself in the US and may turn out to be the factor that shuts down any increase (or prospects of) in the price of a barrel of oil.
Regards,
George
*Diesel fuel to increase by 3.8 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 4.8 cents a litre at the pumps.
Market highlights
Iran to join talks in Algeria
*In a surprise to the markets today, Iran is said to have written a letter to fellow OPEC members letting them know that they will join talks with other OPEC and non-OPEC members in the possibility of instituting a production freeze.
World oil producers are still trying to deal with an excess of supply in the markets, and it is widely believed that a freeze in worldwide oil production will help alleviate the present drop in prices.
The news today help take oil prices out of negative territory and oil ended with a gain on the day.
Oil inventories lower
Last week's inventory news out of the US was for some a surprise as buth oil and gas supplies took a dip last week all against market expectations.
Gasoline inventories took a drop of 2.7 million barrels in last week's report with oil also down by 2.6 million barrels.
I'll leave it at that for this week.
Regards to all,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
That was the release I sent out a little while ago...
The news out of Iran today was a little surprising, I will admit.
In case you missed it, the Iranians are now talking about attending the "freeze" meeting set for Algeria in late September...
Curious though is the effect of making an announcement like that today a full month ahead of the scheduled meeting. Perhaps the Iranians now know what kind of influence the now hold in the markets, but even more curious knowing that they have been taking on the Saudi's at their own game with discounting to their favorite Asian customers almost a side-act.
Be that as it may, Iraq still enters a new realm in the markets with their announcement the other day that they have reached an export deal with the Kurds in the north where exports have been shut in from the Kirkuk fields. With oil down yesterday on the immediate addition of upwards of 200,000 barrels a day in output, it was no surprise to see Iran respond with their own "influence" shot to gain back some attention again.
But keep looking south, but not just south...
With rising oil, US rig counts have again increased for the tenth week out of eleven measured. The fact that oil is still supported close to $50 Brent and $48 WTI, tells me to expect another week of a double-digit increase in rig counts in the next week or two. Resiliency is showing itself in the US and may turn out to be the factor that shuts down any increase (or prospects of) in the price of a barrel of oil.
Regards,
George
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, August 18, 2016
Hi to all,
Here’s what I have for this
week’s price changes:
*Heating and stove oils show
an added 3.2 cents a litre.
*Diesel shows an increase of
2.7 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows just a 1/10th
of a cent a litre increase.
Market highlights
As oil prices rise, affects
can be seen and are all the focus of the update this week...
With OPEC talking about
taking another extraordinary measure to freeze production, speculators are
betting that, this time, the move to impact on the abundance of oil in the
markets will work this time.
*OPEC will
meet in Algeria on September 28th to discuss the possibility of a
production freeze. Other non-OPEC producers like Russia, have shown an interest
in cutting back or freezing production in an effort to support oil prices and
increase revenues.
*Oil
prices have increased a rough 12 percentage points since the last price
setting, an increase of $5.65 over the last week as a result.
*The
Canadian dollar has increased in value against the US greenback, rising close
to three cents from $1.30.6 cents to today’s noon rate of $1.28.6 as oil prices
have increased.
*What is obvious by the numbers this week is a market focus on distillate fuels
that have shown a major increase this week, and numbers that are also pointing
towards a potential increase again for next week ahead o the fall season.
*With
attention now off the gasoline selling season in the US, gasoline numbers are
showing a barely visible increase at the pumps this week. You can see where
refiners have been losing in the game this past summer with gasoline spot
prices remaining relatively steady against the increase in oil prices this
week.
I’ll leave it at that for
this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, August 09, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, August 11.2016
Hi to all,
Here’s what I have for this
week’s price changes:
*Heating and stove oils show
an added 1.1 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an
additional 2.1 cents a litre at the pumps, and...
*Gasoline also shows an added
1.1 cents a litre.
Market highlights
OPEC talks about holding
production cuts meeting
Some OPEC members are again
talking about the possibility of putting “further” production cuts in place
after watching the fall of oil again this week. Member countries like Venezuela
are struggling in the tide of falling oil with the Mediterranean OPEC member
swimming in a mounting tide of debt because of faltering oil prices.
Russia
is also keeping in mind how low oil has cost their own economy and are again
also keeping the possibility of production cuts in mind for a possible
September meeting.
But
the possibility of cuts doesn’t seem to hold water in some circles...
Both
Iran and Iraq have been discounting oil prices to their Asian customers against
their fellow OPEC member Saudi Arabia. After an initial rise in oil prices,
markets were again in retreat today.
US domestic rig count
rises again
For
the ninth week in ten, US domestic rig counts were up again, in spite of oil’s
fall. With oil still showing all the signs of sliding further into bear
territory, the number of small oil companies returning to the oil patch
continues to show slow but steady growth in spite of low oil, and it’s the
biggest bone that the OPEC dog has to contend with. Any discussion of talks
cannot happen, or round of cuts stick, without seeing any kind of return of the
power that US domestic resources holds.
With rising rig counts worldwide, OPEC runs the risk of losing their own
market-share, and thusly, their former world economic influence. Any gap in
production will be quickly met with industry response.
US inventories
Last week’s US inventory
report out of the Energy Information Administration showed a surprise draw
against gasoline inventories of 4.3 million barrels. While ample gasoline
inventories remain well over the five year average, a surprise draw was enough
to bolster speculators into boosting gasoline prices this week.
That’s it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, August 02, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, August 4, 2016
Hi to all,
Final numbers...
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
Final numbers...
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oil predicted to decrease by 3.3 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel to decrease by 3.2 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline to drop by 1.6 cents a litre.
Market highlights
Saudi Arabia discounts
Saudi Arabia has started again to discount to it's Asian customers as the selling war against Iran has again escalated. Since Iran's return to the open markets after the lifting of sanctions, I predicted then that it wouldn't take long before Iran starts to pick a fight in an effort to gain back its own lost customers from the first placement of sanctions a few years back.
Looks like this fight is going to be worth keeping an eye on for its European connection!
Read on!
Libya back in it
Libyan production is coming back on with the end of violence in four key export centers from the North African nation. Analysts are saying to expect anywhere between 150,000 barrels to 450,000 barrels immediately into the world markets with an increase to 900,000 barrels of oil almost certainly directed at the European and Asian markets.
Let there be no mistake that, in a few weeks time for exports to reach Europe, and excess supplies will be certain to hit Brent prices more so than West Texas Intermediate. There will be some discounting in Europe to come!
Nigeria back in
With the Nigerian government agreeing to start paying rebels a share of oil royalties (it's not that unusual), expect to see an increase mostly to the US of light sweet crude into the US eastern seaboard. With production showing some resilience in the US in spite of retreating prices, look for the US to build oil inventories that might show a continued glut will carry on in spite of any producers best efforts.
It was November of last year that it was estimated that the world had in excess of three billion barrels of oil to be consumed before we were free of the oil glut.
Just a few reasons why we won't see any recovery in prices anytime soon.
That's it for this week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
*Diesel fuel to decrease by 3.2 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline to drop by 1.6 cents a litre.
Market highlights
Saudi Arabia discounts
Saudi Arabia has started again to discount to it's Asian customers as the selling war against Iran has again escalated. Since Iran's return to the open markets after the lifting of sanctions, I predicted then that it wouldn't take long before Iran starts to pick a fight in an effort to gain back its own lost customers from the first placement of sanctions a few years back.
Looks like this fight is going to be worth keeping an eye on for its European connection!
Read on!
Libya back in it
Libyan production is coming back on with the end of violence in four key export centers from the North African nation. Analysts are saying to expect anywhere between 150,000 barrels to 450,000 barrels immediately into the world markets with an increase to 900,000 barrels of oil almost certainly directed at the European and Asian markets.
Let there be no mistake that, in a few weeks time for exports to reach Europe, and excess supplies will be certain to hit Brent prices more so than West Texas Intermediate. There will be some discounting in Europe to come!
Nigeria back in
With the Nigerian government agreeing to start paying rebels a share of oil royalties (it's not that unusual), expect to see an increase mostly to the US of light sweet crude into the US eastern seaboard. With production showing some resilience in the US in spite of retreating prices, look for the US to build oil inventories that might show a continued glut will carry on in spite of any producers best efforts.
It was November of last year that it was estimated that the world had in excess of three billion barrels of oil to be consumed before we were free of the oil glut.
Just a few reasons why we won't see any recovery in prices anytime soon.
That's it for this week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, July 26, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for price changes for this week!
*Heating and stove oils show a slight drop of 8/10ths of a cent a litre....
*Diesel fuel shows a slight drop as well of 6/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline is also down this week, but just by 3/10ths of a cent a litre.
Here's what I have for price changes for this week!
*Heating and stove oils show a slight drop of 8/10ths of a cent a litre....
*Diesel fuel shows a slight drop as well of 6/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline is also down this week, but just by 3/10ths of a cent a litre.
Market highlights
Crude drops again
Monday this week saw another drop in crude oil as market analysts have a renewed fear over crude oil over-supply continues to sway oil prices.
Latest API inventory data from the industry-led group shows a less than expected drawdown on crude oil inventories.
No surprise here, but the real confirmation may come from the US Energy Information's Administration's inventory data when it is released tomorrow noon our time. Another reported build in inventory, or smaller than expected drawdown on inventories of crude, may very well extend the recent slide in crude oil prices.
Weak demand for gasoline and indications of a huge surplus in gasoline and distillate supplies has also played in to the latest drop in crude oil prices.
Canadian dollar moves lower
With lower oil comes a lower Canadian dollar, with the Canuck Buck dropping a full two cents against the US greenback over the past three days since oil's slide.
The Canadian dollar was measured at $1.3209 against the US dollar at noon today.
Rig counts up again
The US rig count was up again last Friday, and it is probably a huge indicator of just how robust the smaller producers have become in the face of lower prices. The rig count rose another 15 rigs last week, up again for the seventh week in a row.
That's it for this week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Crude drops again
Monday this week saw another drop in crude oil as market analysts have a renewed fear over crude oil over-supply continues to sway oil prices.
Latest API inventory data from the industry-led group shows a less than expected drawdown on crude oil inventories.
No surprise here, but the real confirmation may come from the US Energy Information's Administration's inventory data when it is released tomorrow noon our time. Another reported build in inventory, or smaller than expected drawdown on inventories of crude, may very well extend the recent slide in crude oil prices.
Weak demand for gasoline and indications of a huge surplus in gasoline and distillate supplies has also played in to the latest drop in crude oil prices.
Canadian dollar moves lower
With lower oil comes a lower Canadian dollar, with the Canuck Buck dropping a full two cents against the US greenback over the past three days since oil's slide.
The Canadian dollar was measured at $1.3209 against the US dollar at noon today.
Rig counts up again
The US rig count was up again last Friday, and it is probably a huge indicator of just how robust the smaller producers have become in the face of lower prices. The rig count rose another 15 rigs last week, up again for the seventh week in a row.
That's it for this week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, July 21, 2016
Hi to all,
Final numbers for
this week are actually not far off from last night's posting. Here's what I
have:
*Heating and stove
oils show a drop of 2.1 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of 1.5 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of 7/10ths of a cent a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of 1.5 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of 7/10ths of a cent a litre.
Market
highlights
Gasoline to
drop next week?
An after hours American Petroleum Institute inventory report sent gasoline futures lower as the industry report showed a build in gasoline inventories that lends further support to weaker demand for gasoline than industry speculators thought. When the industry starts sending out signs of weak demand, you know there's a "problem" with demand.
Inventory reports out of the US Energy Information Administration in recent weeks has been showing the same sign of weak summer demand that has played well into lower prices (except here because of the added tax).
An after hours American Petroleum Institute inventory report sent gasoline futures lower as the industry report showed a build in gasoline inventories that lends further support to weaker demand for gasoline than industry speculators thought. When the industry starts sending out signs of weak demand, you know there's a "problem" with demand.
Inventory reports out of the US Energy Information Administration in recent weeks has been showing the same sign of weak summer demand that has played well into lower prices (except here because of the added tax).
Distillate
drops ahead of September buying contract
Distillate prices in the trading markets are down again this week, ahead of the September buying contract. Inventories of heating, stove oil and diesel fuels are all well above last years levels for this time of the year and show promise of potentially lower prices for those fuels to consumers if the trend keeps going.
Stocks are presently about twelve million barrels ahead of last year's mark. With refinery capacity close to 93 percent, I expect there to be more additions to inventories of distillate that will mitigate any increase to consumer prices...At least for the time-being!
Distillate prices in the trading markets are down again this week, ahead of the September buying contract. Inventories of heating, stove oil and diesel fuels are all well above last years levels for this time of the year and show promise of potentially lower prices for those fuels to consumers if the trend keeps going.
Stocks are presently about twelve million barrels ahead of last year's mark. With refinery capacity close to 93 percent, I expect there to be more additions to inventories of distillate that will mitigate any increase to consumer prices...At least for the time-being!
That's it for this
week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, July 12, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, July 14, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes in what has been a very volatile week!
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of three cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel also shows a drop of three cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 3.4 cents a litre on the way.
Here's what I have for this week's price changes in what has been a very volatile week!
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of three cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel also shows a drop of three cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 3.4 cents a litre on the way.
Market highlights
*Gasoline inventories remain high
As reported by the US Energy Information last week, "product supplied" versus "product used" remains about 250,000 barrels above where refiners feel the numbers should be to maintain prices. The result played heavy in the markets last week as demand was seen to be weak and inventories for gasoline will remain high through the summer.
Gasoline inventories are a strong 21 million barrels above last year's numbers. Refiner capacity is close to 92 percent as they just keep refining!
*Early winter outlook
While the US EIA reports inventories for gasoline up, distillate inventories are also up, but not to the same degree. As of last week, distillate inventory is just above 11 million barrels for the same timeframe last year, and that number may be important to see maintained in the long term.
If inventories remain above the seasonal we are seeing this week, it may prove that the industry may be able to keep up with any anticipated demand over the winter, and this may keep prices relatively steady as compared to last winter.
Any drop in refiner capacity or uptick in demand for distillate will, however, impact inventories and may help to increase prices. But for now, it's looking like "steady as she goes".
I'll leave it there for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
*Gasoline inventories remain high
As reported by the US Energy Information last week, "product supplied" versus "product used" remains about 250,000 barrels above where refiners feel the numbers should be to maintain prices. The result played heavy in the markets last week as demand was seen to be weak and inventories for gasoline will remain high through the summer.
Gasoline inventories are a strong 21 million barrels above last year's numbers. Refiner capacity is close to 92 percent as they just keep refining!
*Early winter outlook
While the US EIA reports inventories for gasoline up, distillate inventories are also up, but not to the same degree. As of last week, distillate inventory is just above 11 million barrels for the same timeframe last year, and that number may be important to see maintained in the long term.
If inventories remain above the seasonal we are seeing this week, it may prove that the industry may be able to keep up with any anticipated demand over the winter, and this may keep prices relatively steady as compared to last winter.
Any drop in refiner capacity or uptick in demand for distillate will, however, impact inventories and may help to increase prices. But for now, it's looking like "steady as she goes".
I'll leave it there for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, July 05, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, July 7, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for price changes this week:
*Heating and stove oils are up by 1.2 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel is up by a penny even, and...
*Gasoline shows a penny down.
Here's what I have for price changes this week:
*Heating and stove oils are up by 1.2 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel is up by a penny even, and...
*Gasoline shows a penny down.
Market highlights
*US drilling rig count rises
The US drill rig count rose again last week, partly sparking the markets to look again at rising oil prices and sparking fears that the US domestic production has hit a level where they can show clear profits at lower oil prices.
The count rose by eleven rigs last week, with news hitting the markets only today as markets remained closed over the US Independence Day holiday.
With rig counts rising again, the possibilities of added oil to US domestic supplies saw oil prices again in retreat, falling close to five percentage points from Friday's market close.
*Gasoline demand takes a tumble
As predicted here a few weeks ago, US demand for summer gasoline has taken an "expected" shift downwards in a late report from the US Energy Information Administration.
Last week's inventory report saw the markets force gasoline prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange to "freefall" by close to eight cents a US gallon as reality of rising production and rising inventories of gasoline midway through the US summer driving season bites home.
Latest trends in the US reports show refinery capacity rising and exceeding US consumption of gasoline by close to 250,000 barrels a day and leaving inventories over 20 million barrels over the same timeframe from last year.
The sell-off was on and oil prices paid for it.
*Don't expect big changes...
While both oil and gasoline prices were down today, don't expect big changes to prices this week as a few days trading are needed to bring prices down. The latest hit on the markets will most likely play into prices next week, if the downward trend continues.
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyOil
*US drilling rig count rises
The US drill rig count rose again last week, partly sparking the markets to look again at rising oil prices and sparking fears that the US domestic production has hit a level where they can show clear profits at lower oil prices.
The count rose by eleven rigs last week, with news hitting the markets only today as markets remained closed over the US Independence Day holiday.
With rig counts rising again, the possibilities of added oil to US domestic supplies saw oil prices again in retreat, falling close to five percentage points from Friday's market close.
*Gasoline demand takes a tumble
As predicted here a few weeks ago, US demand for summer gasoline has taken an "expected" shift downwards in a late report from the US Energy Information Administration.
Last week's inventory report saw the markets force gasoline prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange to "freefall" by close to eight cents a US gallon as reality of rising production and rising inventories of gasoline midway through the US summer driving season bites home.
Latest trends in the US reports show refinery capacity rising and exceeding US consumption of gasoline by close to 250,000 barrels a day and leaving inventories over 20 million barrels over the same timeframe from last year.
The sell-off was on and oil prices paid for it.
*Don't expect big changes...
While both oil and gasoline prices were down today, don't expect big changes to prices this week as a few days trading are needed to bring prices down. The latest hit on the markets will most likely play into prices next week, if the downward trend continues.
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, June 30th, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of just 6/10ths of a cent.
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of a half penny, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 1.9 cents a litre.
Market highlights
HST increase this week!
*Remember that this week's increase at the pumps will also see price changes that include an extra 2% increase in the HST, going from 13% to 15%. The increase MAY be reflected in this Thursday's price setting, or there will be a second increase to follow to account for the adjustment directly on July 1st.
Venezuela turmoil takes away barrels
*While unrest in Venezuela continues, crude output from the South American oil giant continues to slip as prices show little sign of a rebound and Venezuela slips further into the economic doldrums. Output there is projected to drop another ten percent as the country slips further into recession and world oil prices remain low.
Brexit weighs...Or it did!
* Interesting to watch oil slip late last week as Britain voted to get out of the European Union. What happened was a huge move by speculators moving dollars from currencies like the Pound, over to other stable commodities like gold or the US greenback. Our own dollar lost a solid two cents against the US dollar as oil fell through the next two days.
I'll leave it there for now!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of just 6/10ths of a cent.
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of a half penny, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 1.9 cents a litre.
Market highlights
HST increase this week!
*Remember that this week's increase at the pumps will also see price changes that include an extra 2% increase in the HST, going from 13% to 15%. The increase MAY be reflected in this Thursday's price setting, or there will be a second increase to follow to account for the adjustment directly on July 1st.
Venezuela turmoil takes away barrels
*While unrest in Venezuela continues, crude output from the South American oil giant continues to slip as prices show little sign of a rebound and Venezuela slips further into the economic doldrums. Output there is projected to drop another ten percent as the country slips further into recession and world oil prices remain low.
Brexit weighs...Or it did!
* Interesting to watch oil slip late last week as Britain voted to get out of the European Union. What happened was a huge move by speculators moving dollars from currencies like the Pound, over to other stable commodities like gold or the US greenback. Our own dollar lost a solid two cents against the US dollar as oil fell through the next two days.
I'll leave it there for now!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, June 23, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for price changes for this week!
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 6/10ths of a cent....
*Diesel shows a drop of an even penny, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 3.5 cents a litre on the way.
Here's what I have for price changes for this week!
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 6/10ths of a cent....
*Diesel shows a drop of an even penny, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 3.5 cents a litre on the way.
Market highlights
Rig count continues to rise
It may be a painful thing to watch, but the fact that the US drilling rig count was up again last week put some worries back into the markets late last week that US drilling is more resilient to the "Saudi onslaught" of oil that has been dumped into the markets.
That's the second week in a row that the rig count has been up and probably proves that the US drilling industry itself has learned how to cut some of their costs in order to keep operating.
Return of Alberta crude
As Alberta crude starts to come back online starting last week, also coming along with it was less of a worry about any implied shortages of oil in the markets. The fires in Alberta's Fort McMurray area took close to 750,000 barrels offline, making some imports to the US Midwest and Oklahoma area a little shy on inventory that helped support prices.
Demand for gasoline slipping?
While US inventories of gasoline were down again last week, refiner capacity just came over the line of 90%, a bit of a signal to the markets that maybe some refiners are trying to throttle back on gasoline production to help support the price.
Gasoline and crude oil are both at historically high levels of inventory for this time of the year with gasoline inventories 19 million barrels over the same time period for last year.
I'm thinking that speculators aren't entirely "pleased" with the notion going forward that demand will pick up anytime soon based on that figure.
I'll leave it at that for now!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Rig count continues to rise
It may be a painful thing to watch, but the fact that the US drilling rig count was up again last week put some worries back into the markets late last week that US drilling is more resilient to the "Saudi onslaught" of oil that has been dumped into the markets.
That's the second week in a row that the rig count has been up and probably proves that the US drilling industry itself has learned how to cut some of their costs in order to keep operating.
Return of Alberta crude
As Alberta crude starts to come back online starting last week, also coming along with it was less of a worry about any implied shortages of oil in the markets. The fires in Alberta's Fort McMurray area took close to 750,000 barrels offline, making some imports to the US Midwest and Oklahoma area a little shy on inventory that helped support prices.
Demand for gasoline slipping?
While US inventories of gasoline were down again last week, refiner capacity just came over the line of 90%, a bit of a signal to the markets that maybe some refiners are trying to throttle back on gasoline production to help support the price.
Gasoline and crude oil are both at historically high levels of inventory for this time of the year with gasoline inventories 19 million barrels over the same time period for last year.
I'm thinking that speculators aren't entirely "pleased" with the notion going forward that demand will pick up anytime soon based on that figure.
I'll leave it at that for now!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, June 16, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils to increase by 4/10ths of a cent....
*Diesel shows an increase of just 1/10th of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 2.5 cents a litre coming.
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils to increase by 4/10ths of a cent....
*Diesel shows an increase of just 1/10th of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 2.5 cents a litre coming.
Market highlights
*Baker Hughes rig count is up
News from the drilling fields may include some happy points for some as the Baker Hughes rig count is up for the second week in a row.
The rig count, showing active and new start-ups at various locations across the US and North America, showed an added six rigs back in operation. The rise in oil prices in recent weeks is reason enough why we are seeing a rebound in active rigs.
Here in Canada, another twelve rigs went back into operation.
With the rise in active rigs the past two weeks, oil industry people are now looking at the added effect of more pumped oil will have on US domestic production figures.
*Iran oil production
It was only the middle of January when sanctions were lifted against Iran, a move that many predicted would add an immediate 500K barrels to the markets within six months of the sanctions being lifted.
News today seems to indicate that Iran has beaten that estimate and is also well on their way to hitting the million barrel day added oil production before year's end.
Latest figures show Iran produced 750,000 barrels more than what they did in the month before sanctions were lifted, quite a remarkable feat!
But keep an eye to Iran and Saudi Arabia as they both compete for market share. As predicted, that fight will carry on with evidence already pointing to Saudi Arabia discounting prices to European customers, a mainstay market for Iranian crude oil.
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
*Baker Hughes rig count is up
News from the drilling fields may include some happy points for some as the Baker Hughes rig count is up for the second week in a row.
The rig count, showing active and new start-ups at various locations across the US and North America, showed an added six rigs back in operation. The rise in oil prices in recent weeks is reason enough why we are seeing a rebound in active rigs.
Here in Canada, another twelve rigs went back into operation.
With the rise in active rigs the past two weeks, oil industry people are now looking at the added effect of more pumped oil will have on US domestic production figures.
*Iran oil production
It was only the middle of January when sanctions were lifted against Iran, a move that many predicted would add an immediate 500K barrels to the markets within six months of the sanctions being lifted.
News today seems to indicate that Iran has beaten that estimate and is also well on their way to hitting the million barrel day added oil production before year's end.
Latest figures show Iran produced 750,000 barrels more than what they did in the month before sanctions were lifted, quite a remarkable feat!
But keep an eye to Iran and Saudi Arabia as they both compete for market share. As predicted, that fight will carry on with evidence already pointing to Saudi Arabia discounting prices to European customers, a mainstay market for Iranian crude oil.
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, June 07, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, June 9, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for price changes this week, with all data now in:
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 27/100ths of a cent drop....
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of a half cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 2.3 cents a litre.
Here's what I have for price changes this week, with all data now in:
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 27/100ths of a cent drop....
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of a half cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 2.3 cents a litre.
Small consolation for the huge increase in the taxation component last week!
Market highlights
Canadian dollar shows an increase
*A small and disappointing US jobs report showed some weakness in the US greenback last week that allowed the price of oil to rise as a measured response from speculators withdrew from the dollar and invested in oil. Speculators played on oil, helping the Canadian dollar increase against the US greenback as a result, with the Canadian dollar averaging two cents up against the US currency as of market close today.
US gasoline at peak?
*The price of gas has started to drop on most exchanges this past week as the peak of US summer driving season is now upon us. With speculators seeing ample supply of gas to match demand, and most futures markets into the August buying contract, it seems to me at least, that investors won't see prices any higher than right now. Look for prices to remain relatively steady now through the summer.
OPEC meetings a failure?
*Meetings between OPEC members were rather tepid and seemed to be more designed to keep the group together, rather than meant for the imposition of any kind of round of production cuts. While prices have been rising for oil as of late, I believe that this was the excuse that the group needed to not change present levels of production. In the meantime, production as well as exports, keeps climbing in OPEC members' Iraq and Iran in the face of self-imposed production maintenance.
I'll leave it at that for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Market highlights
Canadian dollar shows an increase
*A small and disappointing US jobs report showed some weakness in the US greenback last week that allowed the price of oil to rise as a measured response from speculators withdrew from the dollar and invested in oil. Speculators played on oil, helping the Canadian dollar increase against the US greenback as a result, with the Canadian dollar averaging two cents up against the US currency as of market close today.
US gasoline at peak?
*The price of gas has started to drop on most exchanges this past week as the peak of US summer driving season is now upon us. With speculators seeing ample supply of gas to match demand, and most futures markets into the August buying contract, it seems to me at least, that investors won't see prices any higher than right now. Look for prices to remain relatively steady now through the summer.
OPEC meetings a failure?
*Meetings between OPEC members were rather tepid and seemed to be more designed to keep the group together, rather than meant for the imposition of any kind of round of production cuts. While prices have been rising for oil as of late, I believe that this was the excuse that the group needed to not change present levels of production. In the meantime, production as well as exports, keeps climbing in OPEC members' Iraq and Iran in the face of self-imposed production maintenance.
I'll leave it at that for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, June 2nd, 2016
Hi to all,
Here’s what I have for this
week’s price changes:
*Heating and stove oils show
a drop of just 1/10th of a cent a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an
increase of 5.2 cents a litre, inclusive of the new government road tax, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase
of 20.9 cents a litre, inclusive of the new government road tax increase.
Market news
OPEC meets June 2nd
in Vienna
*OPEC will hold its next
meeting later this week in Vienna to discuss further possible measures to help
support oil prices. Saudi Arabia hopes to arrange a hold in production to help
support prices, but the possible measure is not coming to fruition with OPEC
members Iraq and Iran, who have increased production to capture more market
share.
Speculators
and analysts are out there thinking that nothing of consequence will come from
the meeting as OPEC has a history of it’s own members cheating on self-imposed
quotas.
Budget a done deal
*Here in Newfoundland and
Labrador, the provincial budget passed and the notion of higher taxes on most
transportation fuels ahead of the increase in HST in July is now reality. The
budget passed earlier this afternoon by a 26-10 margin.
Bill #20 dealing
with allowing that increase to the gas tax was passed in the House of Assembly
just last week.
That’s it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, May 24, 2016
Price increases across the board for Thursday
Hi to all,
Here are the final numbers for this week's projected fuel price changes:
*Heating and stove oils add 3.7 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel is up 3.6 cents a litre, and
*Gasoline shows an increase of 2.7 cents a litre.
Here are the final numbers for this week's projected fuel price changes:
*Heating and stove oils add 3.7 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel is up 3.6 cents a litre, and
*Gasoline shows an increase of 2.7 cents a litre.
Market highlights
Increase to road taxes means a huge bump at the pumps
*Today in the House of Assembly, the government passed the motion allowing for an increase to the road tax collected on gasoline to be instituted June 2nd.
The increase, plus the applicable increase in the HST works out to an additional 20.9 cents a litre on the present price for gasoline.
With today's price change prediction in hand, the price at the pumps would go from $1.13.8 cents a litre to $1.34.8 cents a litre.
Demand still up ahead of US Memorial Day holiday
*As the US memorial Day holiday approaches in the US next week, gasoline prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange keeps rising, this week to hit $1.64 a US gallon. Anticipated demand through the summer is the chief cause of these increases, along with a rising US dollar against the Canadian dollar.
The Canadian dollar has lost a rough two cents this past week against its US counterpart.
I'll leave it at this for now. There's lot's of news out there, but Bill#20 seems to be the major story right now.
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Increase to road taxes means a huge bump at the pumps
*Today in the House of Assembly, the government passed the motion allowing for an increase to the road tax collected on gasoline to be instituted June 2nd.
The increase, plus the applicable increase in the HST works out to an additional 20.9 cents a litre on the present price for gasoline.
With today's price change prediction in hand, the price at the pumps would go from $1.13.8 cents a litre to $1.34.8 cents a litre.
Demand still up ahead of US Memorial Day holiday
*As the US memorial Day holiday approaches in the US next week, gasoline prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange keeps rising, this week to hit $1.64 a US gallon. Anticipated demand through the summer is the chief cause of these increases, along with a rising US dollar against the Canadian dollar.
The Canadian dollar has lost a rough two cents this past week against its US counterpart.
I'll leave it at this for now. There's lot's of news out there, but Bill#20 seems to be the major story right now.
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, May 19, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils to increase by 2.9 cents a litre....
*Diesel shows an additional 3.2 cents at the pumps, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 4.2 cents a litre!
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils to increase by 2.9 cents a litre....
*Diesel shows an additional 3.2 cents at the pumps, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 4.2 cents a litre!
Market highlights
*Disruptions are the order of the day
With wildfires in Alberta now threatening both work camps and oil fields themselves, the western Canadian province has also another distinction, being another region of the world that is adding to a supply disruption.
Almost 600,000 barrels has so far been shut in. That goes hand in hand with Nigeria, also showing some 700,000 barrels a day shut in due to strife in the oil-producing region of that country. Libya also is affected with an ongoing internal struggle for power that has dropped output from the North African country to 200,000 barrels a day.
Finally, with US domestic production taking a pounding, a drop in production of close on 800,000 a day since the oil crash has some wondering just how quickly the world over-supply is being taken up.
These disruptions alone amount to 3.5 million barrels a day drop from last year, and we haven't even touched on other projects put on hold because of the crash in other oil-producing countries.
*Demand for gasoline rises
Gasoline demand is picking up again ahead of the US summer driving season.
Demand for gasoline products is up 5.1% from the same four week period last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That's probably enough to see traders get back into the markets and force up prices to match demand.
Just another reason why you and me are going to pay for it this week.
That's it for now!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
*Disruptions are the order of the day
With wildfires in Alberta now threatening both work camps and oil fields themselves, the western Canadian province has also another distinction, being another region of the world that is adding to a supply disruption.
Almost 600,000 barrels has so far been shut in. That goes hand in hand with Nigeria, also showing some 700,000 barrels a day shut in due to strife in the oil-producing region of that country. Libya also is affected with an ongoing internal struggle for power that has dropped output from the North African country to 200,000 barrels a day.
Finally, with US domestic production taking a pounding, a drop in production of close on 800,000 a day since the oil crash has some wondering just how quickly the world over-supply is being taken up.
These disruptions alone amount to 3.5 million barrels a day drop from last year, and we haven't even touched on other projects put on hold because of the crash in other oil-producing countries.
*Demand for gasoline rises
Gasoline demand is picking up again ahead of the US summer driving season.
Demand for gasoline products is up 5.1% from the same four week period last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That's probably enough to see traders get back into the markets and force up prices to match demand.
Just another reason why you and me are going to pay for it this week.
That's it for now!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, May 12, 2016
Good evening to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils to drop by 8/10ths of a cent....
*Diesel fuel to drop by 6/10ths of a cent, and...
*Gasoline to drop by 2.2 cents a litre.
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils to drop by 8/10ths of a cent....
*Diesel fuel to drop by 6/10ths of a cent, and...
*Gasoline to drop by 2.2 cents a litre.
Market highlights
*Saudi Arabia to continue to pump
Saudi Arabia, set to replace it's present oil minister Ali Al Naimi, says it will continue to follow conditions it has recently set in order to maintain production at January levels. The new Saudi oil minister, Khalid Al Falid said he would maintain policies currently in place by his predecessor.
However, that goes contrary to statements made by the head of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, who said plans are being made by the state-owned company to expand capacity by next year to an added one million barrels a day from the Shaybah oil field. It will be interesting to see how other countries respond as, I believe the Saudi's are setting themselves up for an "unrestricted oil war" against other oil producing nations.
*Canadian dollar falls
The Canadian dollar fell in the last few days an average of 2.5 cents over the last week as both a weak economic outlook and the shaky ground beneath oil prices saw the dollar retreat against the US greenback.
*Latest US inventory report
With US domestic oil production still falling, this month averaging 8.8 million barrels a day from last year's 9.6 million barrels, the latest inventory report still shows a steady flow of oil coming into the US from outside sources. Inventories reported a gain of 2.8 million barrels, while gasoline also showed a modest 500 thousand barrels up from the week previous.
At a critical juncture before the start of the US driving season, the predicted drop in prices is most likely related to a withdrawal of speculators from the July buying contract, where traditionally we start to see a drop in gasoline prices through to the fall.
I'll leave it at that for this week.
Sorry for any inconvenience last week, but it was a great trip to Cuba.
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
*Saudi Arabia to continue to pump
Saudi Arabia, set to replace it's present oil minister Ali Al Naimi, says it will continue to follow conditions it has recently set in order to maintain production at January levels. The new Saudi oil minister, Khalid Al Falid said he would maintain policies currently in place by his predecessor.
However, that goes contrary to statements made by the head of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, who said plans are being made by the state-owned company to expand capacity by next year to an added one million barrels a day from the Shaybah oil field. It will be interesting to see how other countries respond as, I believe the Saudi's are setting themselves up for an "unrestricted oil war" against other oil producing nations.
*Canadian dollar falls
The Canadian dollar fell in the last few days an average of 2.5 cents over the last week as both a weak economic outlook and the shaky ground beneath oil prices saw the dollar retreat against the US greenback.
*Latest US inventory report
With US domestic oil production still falling, this month averaging 8.8 million barrels a day from last year's 9.6 million barrels, the latest inventory report still shows a steady flow of oil coming into the US from outside sources. Inventories reported a gain of 2.8 million barrels, while gasoline also showed a modest 500 thousand barrels up from the week previous.
At a critical juncture before the start of the US driving season, the predicted drop in prices is most likely related to a withdrawal of speculators from the July buying contract, where traditionally we start to see a drop in gasoline prices through to the fall.
I'll leave it at that for this week.
Sorry for any inconvenience last week, but it was a great trip to Cuba.
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, April 28, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.9 cents a litre.
*Diesel shows an added 2 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 1.6 cents a litre at the pumps.
Market highlights
*While the Canadian dollar has risen slightly in the last week against its US counterpart, it still wasn't enough to absorb a corresponding rise in the basic cost price of most fuels I measure. All spot prices have shown a startling increase that goes hand in hand with rising oil prices. As a result of rising oil, the Canadian dollar has increased a rough 1.3 cents against the greenback.
*Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will feel the pinch this coming winter with the end of the Heating Rebate program in this year's provincial budget.
Consumers in Labrador will particularly feel the hardest hit living in a harsh environment with no benefit of the rebate program that saw considerable money to consumers to assist them with paying higher heating costs.
Consumers will also be tagged with an added two percentage points to heating costs.
Government should re-instate the rebate program and render assistance to those who will be faced with higher energy costs. Again in this province, people will be forced to choose again between food and heat!
Bring back the rebate and remove the tax on the necessities like heat!
*As predicted months ago, a new bottom line for the start of the return of US domestic drilling programs is slowly starting to form a picture of where we can all expect oil prices to top out.
$50 US is the new floor for oil where it is widely expected to see US domestic drilling and production programs to recover from the last year's drop in oil that initially shut down drilling.
It's also widely seen as a reason why speculators have been pouring dollars into oil this week. However, the spectre of a world over-supply of oil still hangs in the balance, so there's still predicted to be some volatility in pricing.
*Gasoline demand has picked up in recent weeks with US gas production alone hitting 9.4 million barrels a day, an increase of 3.9% over last years figures!
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.9 cents a litre.
*Diesel shows an added 2 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 1.6 cents a litre at the pumps.
Market highlights
*While the Canadian dollar has risen slightly in the last week against its US counterpart, it still wasn't enough to absorb a corresponding rise in the basic cost price of most fuels I measure. All spot prices have shown a startling increase that goes hand in hand with rising oil prices. As a result of rising oil, the Canadian dollar has increased a rough 1.3 cents against the greenback.
*Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will feel the pinch this coming winter with the end of the Heating Rebate program in this year's provincial budget.
Consumers in Labrador will particularly feel the hardest hit living in a harsh environment with no benefit of the rebate program that saw considerable money to consumers to assist them with paying higher heating costs.
Consumers will also be tagged with an added two percentage points to heating costs.
Government should re-instate the rebate program and render assistance to those who will be faced with higher energy costs. Again in this province, people will be forced to choose again between food and heat!
Bring back the rebate and remove the tax on the necessities like heat!
*As predicted months ago, a new bottom line for the start of the return of US domestic drilling programs is slowly starting to form a picture of where we can all expect oil prices to top out.
$50 US is the new floor for oil where it is widely expected to see US domestic drilling and production programs to recover from the last year's drop in oil that initially shut down drilling.
It's also widely seen as a reason why speculators have been pouring dollars into oil this week. However, the spectre of a world over-supply of oil still hangs in the balance, so there's still predicted to be some volatility in pricing.
*Gasoline demand has picked up in recent weeks with US gas production alone hitting 9.4 million barrels a day, an increase of 3.9% over last years figures!
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, April 21, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this
week's price changes. With winter blending over until the fall, the numbers
should be more accurate for heating and diesel numbers.
*Heating and stove oils show
an increase of 1.4 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an
increase of 1.7 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows no change.
Market highlights
Canadian dollar up
*The Canadian dollar continued to rise against the US
dollar this past week, increasing by an average two cents against the Greenback.
While US spot prices increased for gasoline this past week, the rise in the
dollar absorbed any increase to Newfoundland and Labrador consumers.
Budget reaction
*The budget will prove to be a very painful one this
year with increases to energy consumers, especially for those who use the main
transportation fuels of diesel and gasoline.
Both
fuels will increase June 2nd by close on twenty cents a litre by the time taxes
are accounted for on top of the proposed 16.5 cent a litre increase. Total
provincial take in road taxes alone will amount to 33 cents a litre, the
highest in Canada. The rumours I heard of a possible five cent a litre increase
in the works makes the actual that occurred that much harder, and it's really
obvious that consumers could see the return of fuel surcharges to anything
being moved by ground transportation.
Food prices could again be on the upswing in June month with additional
fuel surcharges on freight and tourism efforts geared toward drive-in tourists
may have been knee-capped with a broken promise from the markets of the
potential for lower summer fuel prices.
This increase makes it harder for everyone, including those who are in
business and needs to be rejected outright!
Doha meeting failure
*Meetings in Doha, Qatar aimed at the world's major
producers limiting production were a failure this past Sunday as agreement on
reaching production limitations failed to meet with any concrete actions by
both OPEC and non-OPEC producers. People are saying that they "need more
time" to achieve the objectives of any world cut to production and they
may try again for agreement in June at the next regular meeting of OPEC.
I'll keep a close eye on that...
That's it for this week.
Be sure to let your voices be
heard over the budget. Call and contact your MHA and be sure to let them know
your simply not going to take this one lying down.
Any questions, feel free to
drop me a note, and don't forget to share this note!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Sunday, April 17, 2016
Talks in Doha, Qatar a failure from the start
It's not good news for anyone hoping to see oil prices continue to rise.
Talks in Doha, Qatar amongst some of the world's major oil producers failed to reach a final agreement on cuts to production that would have helped to stabilize oil prices.
Hopes amongst attending nations was to see an agreement hammered out that would increase oil revenues to these oil nations, but Saudi Arabia threw a wrench into talks at the start of the day with an expectation by the world's number one producer and exporter that all OPEC nations would participate in production cuts. Word silently hinting to Iran to join in.
It was the Saudi's last hope, as well as OPEC's...
Iran, the major bone of contention, was expected to follow along as a fellow OPEC member, and sign on to the "gentleman's agreement" to maintain output at January levels ranging close to 32.4 million barrels a day. Iran, fully aware of it's own standing amongst OPEC members, already had in place it's own position as regards to their own nation's output: They fully expected to replace lost market-share from sanctions placed on the OPEC member in UN resolution 1636 that saw production curtailed and shut in.
Saudi Arabia was an OPEC member that fully benefitted from Iran's lost customer base...
Was there any hope of these nations reaching consensus in Doha based on a mutual dislike for each other?
While some thought there would be, it seems that the conditions were already set in the oil markets for a complete and utter race to the bottom of the barrel to oil prices. While some thought that $40 US was a new bottom, it seems more than likely that a downwards slide in oil prices is about to begin again.
While this is an oil war no side will win, both fully deserve the market-share they so rightfully deserve.
"Pump madly and keep pumping away" seems to be the new OPEC order of the day, every day that much closer to the end of the organisation that held world economies hostage for so long.
Somehow, it all seems so fitting...
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Talks in Doha, Qatar amongst some of the world's major oil producers failed to reach a final agreement on cuts to production that would have helped to stabilize oil prices.
Hopes amongst attending nations was to see an agreement hammered out that would increase oil revenues to these oil nations, but Saudi Arabia threw a wrench into talks at the start of the day with an expectation by the world's number one producer and exporter that all OPEC nations would participate in production cuts. Word silently hinting to Iran to join in.
It was the Saudi's last hope, as well as OPEC's...
Iran, the major bone of contention, was expected to follow along as a fellow OPEC member, and sign on to the "gentleman's agreement" to maintain output at January levels ranging close to 32.4 million barrels a day. Iran, fully aware of it's own standing amongst OPEC members, already had in place it's own position as regards to their own nation's output: They fully expected to replace lost market-share from sanctions placed on the OPEC member in UN resolution 1636 that saw production curtailed and shut in.
Saudi Arabia was an OPEC member that fully benefitted from Iran's lost customer base...
Was there any hope of these nations reaching consensus in Doha based on a mutual dislike for each other?
While some thought there would be, it seems that the conditions were already set in the oil markets for a complete and utter race to the bottom of the barrel to oil prices. While some thought that $40 US was a new bottom, it seems more than likely that a downwards slide in oil prices is about to begin again.
While this is an oil war no side will win, both fully deserve the market-share they so rightfully deserve.
"Pump madly and keep pumping away" seems to be the new OPEC order of the day, every day that much closer to the end of the organisation that held world economies hostage for so long.
Somehow, it all seems so fitting...
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)