Update #1

Numbers don't show anything, really...

I'm often asked whether prices for petroleum products are fairly priced and, this week is no different than any other, but with one glaring exception.

While the numbers don't show major changes in either heating and stove oils (-4/10ths), diesels

(-6/10ths) and for gasoline (-1.2), we can look back on the markets and take a quick look of why prices will hardly be moving this time around. What you figure you'd be looking at is an exact carbon copy of the performance in the markets over the last three weeks.

Not so, even though the movement of crude probably justifies a larger change in the numbers than what we're expecting. What is distinctly noticeable is the amount of risk that some traders have taken all in the vain hope that OPEC cuts will be far-reaching and that inventory reports will start to show deceases in refined product as refineries are beginning to cut back on production.

Justifiably so? If I were an owner of a refinery, that is. I'd be a little concerned about the falling price. That's why we're hearing a little bit more on some refineries cutting back on production, particularly over the last week or so, and that is the difference between this week's numbers and those of two weeks ago.

If you attempt to limit supply, then prices are sure to either steady out if not increase.

Ill post my final numbers here later tonight as to what to expect. Right now, with six days out of seven days worth of data, there's not much there...

Regards,

George