Oil holding steady

Distillate prices up on cold European weather

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, February 7, 2012- Consumers won’t see much change to gasoline prices this week, but the same can’t be said for distillate fuels as refined distillate prices continue to climb. That news comes from George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

What’s driving up distillate prices?

“Cold European weather is probably what is driving up refined distillate prices this time around. Record cold and the fact that European countries are the heaviest consumer of distillate-type fuels are combining to move heating, stove oil and diesel fuel prices this time around, and if the cold weather persists there, it may not be the end of it.” Murphy said.

The numbers

“Numbers show that heating and stove oils will increase by 1.05 cents a litre, while diesel fuel will increase by a penny. Gasoline prices are relatively steady, in fact showing two tenths of a cent down for this week. Keeping in mind my margin for error of three tenths, there may be no change to gasoline prices this time around.

Numbers for next week are starting to form already with distillates showing up so far by another two cents or so, with gasoline again showing hardly any moves, albeit upwards in the tenths of cents. Those preliminary numbers will change if the cold snap breaks. Keep in mind as well that this is very early and full data has to be collected before I can make a final guess early next week.”

Saudi Arabia to keep prices below $100 a barrel

Bin Talal, the CEO of Saudi Arabia’s Kingdom Holding company says that his country cannot allow market jitters over the Iran situation drive up oil prices above the $100 US a barrel mark. Market fears are such that traders believe that if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz over its nuclear program, then any exports from Red Sea ports will be disrupted, thus driving up oil prices.

However, the same belief cannot be said of Brent crude prices, which are a more widespread use worldwide, which are set to break $120 US a barrel. Some are saying that the Saudi’s are playing the $100 a barrel card to calm market fears over a possible sharp rise in crude oil this summer where prices are projected to trade for $180 US.

“I don’t think that $180 US a barrel is possible however. If that happens, we’ll all be witness to a collapse in consumer spending and a collapse in any economic recovery the likes we’ve never witnessed before, you can count on that!”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyNDP

World financial crisis plays a role

Consumers to catch a break on Thursday

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, August 9, 2011- High energy prices may have resulted in a slowdown in the world economy and sparked the financial crisis, but the world economy may have a chance to recover, if prices keep dropping like they will this Thursday. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Reasons why prices will drop

“The havoc and doubt about the world economy and how well the economy has actually been doing started the drop In oil prices that will result in a break to consumers this week”, Murphy said. “High energy costs chew up a lot of disposable income amongst consumers out there, so it’s not unreasonable to assume consumer spending would have been cut with the advent of austerity programming to pay off some country’s debts. Hose methods to pay off debts are part reason why prices have been dropping.”

“While oil prices dropped feverishly, refined commodities didn’t go down as far as one would expect. There’s still a thought out there amongst speculators out there that refined commodities are a place to cut your losses. I believe that prices for refined commodities are still going to show a downwards trend for the next while, if market conditions continue with doubts about economic recovery.

What’s In the numbers

“Heating and stove oils show a drop of 2.98 cents per litre coming for Thursday, while diesel is down by 3.7 cents. Gasoline numbers are taking the biggest drop, now showing down by 6.1 cents a litre to consumers when the Public Utilities Board makes the adjustments early Thursday morning.

“Consumers need this break, and it is welcome, but the investor and speculator needs to know that we still can’t handle prices as high as they will be, and we’re still looking for prices to return to a level we can bear. There really has to come a point where they have to realize that high energy costs cause world financial problems and economic hardship in the first place. Cheap energy means everyone benefits.

Competition in the St. John’s northeast?

Some gas stations in the northeast end of the capital have lowered their prices slightly in response to the entry of Costco in the markets. While prices have been set at a maximum of $1.33.4 by the PUB, some stations are down to $1.31.4 against the Costco selling price of $1.27.4 cents a litre.

“The entry of Costco into the market has done expressly what I had hoped for. Consumers now have a small break coming to them as there is now a spread of some six cents a litre between stations. Finally, we have some competition out there, and we hope it continues!”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

On Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyNDP

Oil takes a pounding

Look for more updates on this one again as oil prices take a pounding in the markets today.

Oil trading lower as a result of bad economic news out of the US with a lower than expected drop in US inventories, lower economic growth forecast and a higher than expected unemployment report all playing heavily in the markets.

WTI trading down, as of 12:00Noon Newfoundland time, by $4.64 US a barrel and Brent trading down by more than six bucks US to $107.46 and below what the Newfoundland and Labrador government's budget forecast of $108 US.

Gasoline is trading down by 14 cents US a gallon and heating oils also are trading down by 16 cents a US gallon as well.

Might be another good week on the consumer end, especially if the "Canuck Buck" stays up!

I'll be in touch on this one as well as it unfolds, so you might want to hold off buying any fuels for a bit.

Regards,

George

Up and down in the markets

Gas prices down, but distillate fuels up

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, June 07, 2011- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will find evidence of the 'up and down' to the markets this week when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices this Thursday morning. That's from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

"Numbers are reflective of what happened with inventories late last week when data showed a drop in distillate fuels and a gain for inventories of gasoline," Murphy said."It's been all over the map since, with no real sign of stability. Oddly enough, inventories of crude oil increased by 2.9 million barrels even though there was an increase in refinery production, reaching a full 86 per cent, the highest level in weeks."

The numbers

"Heating and stove oils show upwards movement by 1.03 cents a litre. Diesel should increase by 1.5 cents. That is probably in line with inventory reports that showed a drop in distillate inventories by close on a million barrels. Someone is burning a lot of distillate fuel out there, most likely diesel fuel."

"Gasoline is showing the opposite: down by 2.6 cents a litre. Gasoline inventories were up last week by 2.6 million barrels for the week, probably the reason behind the drop in prices.

Oil prices may drop

There are also strong signs that OPEC member countries are getting ready to ramp up production, citing the need to keep the world economy moving in the face of slow, or even falling economic recovery. The group of producers led by Saudi Arabia, are presently meeting in Vienna.The talk is about adding 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day to present production quotas. If that happens, it could be a plus to helping prices drop. The Saudis are concerned that high oil prices will further damage world economic recovery and they're pushing fellow OPEC members to help drop the price of oil to a more 'manageable' seventy to eighty dollars US a barrel from it's present level of around the hundred US level it presently sits at.

But there is another cause for concern.

"If the group does raise quotas, then that leaves spare refinery capacity at a minimum while Libyan production is off-line with ongoing political turmoil. Libyan production matches that of the proposed OPEC production increase: 1.5 million barrels per day. The difference here is in the interpretation of the news here. Investing agencies are concerned with losing capacity when consumers are saying that capacity is there. Just not online at this moment. I believe we're close to a retreat in prices, especially if demand for gasoline and distillate fuels stagnates."

"We'll wait and see."

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

*Just a footnote to this story really. demand for gasoline products this past week was recorded at 1.3% lower than the same recording period for last year. That's pretty important to see at this time, and another sign of probably what's coming.

Victory last week on the tax off heat
What's for this week, I wonder?

Sorry I haven't been around for a bit.

Out doing the door to door thing, and loving it, of course!

I hope that everyone out there is going to get out and vote. Remember that you alone can sometimes effect change, and it's a change we'll all be looking at if the polls are any indication.

Anyway, here's what I have for this week, with six days reporting. My gasoline number may be off slightly because of a lost day of data at the start of the session, so that number is reflective of five days of data:

• Stove and heating oils show a drop of 1.01 cents per litre (remember the kerosene!)
• Diesel shows a drop of 9/10ths of a cent, and ...
• Gasoline shows an added half cent at this point.

That's it for tonight!...

I'll be back tomorrow night, probably later than usual because of the door knocking thing. I hope I can be forgiven for promoting the "5% off heat" agenda! After all, it was fourteen years between successes in getting provincial taxes off heat, I figured that I'd get the early start on the federal tax off heat!...

Any questions, be sure to drop me a note!

Regards,

George

Numbers are in
But can they be trusted?

Hi to all...

After last weeks "shenanigans", I don't know what's going to happen with the numbers this week. I'll be blunt.

But, here's what I do have.

I haven't changed my sources or the way I have done things.

Let's see if they did...and see if my numbers come back on track. I know the "Stove" number is solid.

• Heating and stove oils show an added 2.88 cents up. Keep in mind again that the stove oil number is a rough guide on where heating oil numbers could go.The number is the same as the stove number in the non-winter season. During winter, they throw in kerosene into the stove oil number and that acts as an antifreeze agent.
• Diesel shows an added 2.0 cents a litre up, and...
• Gasoline shows an added 8/10ths of a cent.

There is volatility in the numbers.
The first five days of this session showed oil and related commodities up and still climbing from last week, all on steady demand and a draw-down on inventories.

And then the IMF and IEA weighed into the fray on Monday.

The last two days with the oil sell-off, numbers have been all over the place. It's a sign that markets are unsure and that there's some doubt over continuing demand for oil and it's related, refined product. That fact showed itself with the International Energy Agency adjusting its world demand figures for oil downwards. The reasons for that are quite apparent: that world economic recovery could be hindered by high energy prices.

That started the retreat and oil's strategic withdrawal.

That's it for me for this week, but keep an eye to your email for a special invite from this poster for later this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers off?

Sounds strange, I know, but true.

The numbers for heating oil were off but we already knew that that might happen. As I said often before that the winter heating blend was different and that we could only go by the stove oil number to use as a guide during winter months until I find a source for kerosene. That's because kerosene is used as an anti-freeze agent during the winter months on a 75/25% mixture. That's why the stove oil number was within the margin for error.

As for gasoline? Different story...

I've checked and re-checked, and they still show the same: that increases should have happened that would have taken gas up by five cents a litre.

Thankful?

Yes, but now people may be questioning my accuracy.

I've checked three sources online and all are showing that my numbers are dead on, so, I can't explain the differences. I even went to three different gasoline types and they all showed increases over the past week ranging close to 6.6 cents a litre on gasoline that was supposed to be there. That was for a reformulated blend out of New York harbour, as it is known in the markets.

Conspiracy?

I can't say, but it has been mentioned before that someone may be making calls to someone down the line to hold back on putting the full charge to the consumer in an attempt to discredit. But tonight, the reality is that we got tagged with 2.5 cents at the pumps rather than the five I had, and I really can't go searching for that extra 2.5 cents.

Maybe they made a mistake in their numbers, after all?...

Naaa!...

Maybe they're "banking on it" for later!

Regards,

George

Six days out and the seventh coming on...

Update, if you can call it that...

there won't be any drops in prices this week, suffice to say. here's what I have after six days:

• Heating and stove oils now show an added 1.05 cents a litre up.
• Diesel shows up by 1.2 cents, and...
• Gasoline now is up by 4.8 cents a litre.

I have to ask all of you out there "Do you think it's time for action on the tax on heat?". It became a topic during question period again after Lorraine Michael, leader of the provincial New Democratic Party, brought it up in the House of assembly here.

Drop me a line if you think so.

It's already a federal issue with the federal wing of the NDP carrying the removal of tax on heat as part of the party's platform.

I'll be back tomorrow night with the rest of the bad news for this week. Either way, we're not going to dodge this one and your heating bill will go up this week...

Regards,

George

Will prices spike this week?
Numbers show interruption a possibility

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, June 10, 2009- The rise in oil prices this last week may leave a very sour taste in the mouth of consumers, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“I’m seeing a steady rise in the price of oil and its related commodities and that doesn’t bode well for consumers. While some numbers are close to my margin for error, I’m putting out a recommendation that we all err on the side of caution this time out because of the volatility of the markets these past few weeks. I’d much rather I was wrong more so than right sometimes,” said Murphy.

What consumers can expect this Thursday
“Numbers show large increases on the way. Heating and stove oils are expected to increase by 4.37 cents a litre, diesel by 4.7 cents a litre and gasoline by another 4.9 cents a litre. My actual on gas before the addition of taxes shows a 4.17 cent a litre increase, so that’s why the call of ‘erring on the side of caution’ in this case. The margin for error would bring it below the 4.17 cent a litre margin and hence, no increase this week. The possibility of an increase however, is much more likely than not.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Update #2

Prices slightly up for this week
Increase in prices renews concerns over added fuel surcharges

Media release


Conception Bay South, NL, June 02, 2009- Most fuel prices will probably increase on Thursday but that’s not the big worry. The creep up in all fuel product prices is renewing concerns that some companies may be forced to consider the likelihood of adding fuel surcharges to account for the latest increases in prices.

Marine Atlantic costs to go up?
George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices says that businesses operating within the province should be concerned that there is a possibility that some costs will be increased because of the extra costs for fuel in recent weeks, leading to the possibility of added fuel surcharges again.

“We’re keeping an eye to Marine Atlantic who will be making the decision on added fuel surcharges later this month. The first time they did that back in 2007; prices for most marine type fuels were averaging close to 35 cents a litre when a fuel surcharge of two per cent was applied to passenger fares. As of the first of June, 2009 those numbers exceed that of 2007 by almost 2.5 cents a litre, creeping upwards in recent weeks and showing no signs of abatement. The province should immediately be concerned about any addition to prices crossing the Gulf and should be taking steps to ensure these costs are not going to be passed down to the consumer or to businesses in the province. We also have a very important tourism season to protect,” said Murphy.

“Our federal representatives should press the government in Ottawa to help the Department of Transport and the minister responsible, John Baird, absorb these added costs to Marine Atlantic. If they can step in to the automotive industry with financial assistance, they can help Marine Atlantic absorb the additional costs of marine fuels. We’re seeing the numbers increase and we still have time to deal with anything that is forth-coming provided the federal government is receptive to protecting the province from added increases to rates.”

On the consumer front
“Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see an added 1.77 cents a litre to heating and stove oils, an added one cent a litre to gasoline prices and 1.9 cents a litre on diesel fuels as a result of this past two weeks market activity. Even though numbers show inventories of crude oil almost 50 million barrels more than the average, prices continue to climb as a result of positive economic news. They may be positive for the provincial treasury but, it’s not so positive for the consumer when we see the removal of disposable income from the consumer’s pocket.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member

Update #1

Price increases coming

I'll be posting more on this tomorrow night when all the data is in, but for now, it ooks like price increases are coming.

Here's what I have so far, thirteen days out of fourteen available days data:

• Heating/stove oils up by 1.48 a litre.
• Diesel up by 1.6 a litre, and...
• Gasoline shows up by close on a penny.

A few notes for this period:

• Canadian dollar has gained by six cents against its US counterpart.
• Refiner capacity has increased to 85 per cent from last week's 83.7 per cent.
• Consumer demand for distillates measured down by 9 per cent from last year.
• Jet fuel demand down by slightly better than nine also.
• Demand for gasoline is 4/10ths of a per cent below last years levels.
• Crude stocks are almost 50 millionbarrels more than last year for the same timeframe.

More tomorrow like I say...

Regards,

George

Update:

Prices to increase again
Refinery outages and political unrest increase oil pricing

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 19, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will, again see an increase in all fuel prices when the Public Utilities Board sets prices this coming Thursday at it’s regular price-setting, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Political unrest and refinery outages south of the border are being mentioned as key reasons why consumers here will see prices increase this Thursday morning. Consumers can expect to see an added two cents on gasoline prices, 2.4 cents on diesel and 2.08 cents a litre onto heating and stove oil pricing this Thursday morning,” said Murphy.

“Rumors are rampant in the markets that there is considerable disruption and loss of life in Nigeria in the delta region over these past few days. Add to that, the fact of several refinery outages and we have the impetus to see prices increase on fears of disruptions again. Even though refinery capacity and utilization rates sit at close to 84 per cent, it seems that the refinery disruption scenario is manufactured by industry and is easily curable and we know that there have been supply concerns from the Niger Delta region for years now. It is inexcusable to see prices increase to consumers with this information!

“Demand figures are, at present close to two percentage points down from last year at this same time-frame. Consumer demand for oil products such as distillates remains low at 14 per cent below last years levels. Jet fuel demand has dropped by almost 11 percentage points against last years numbers and industries numbers are telling us that prices will increase? The information available out there is telling us that consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador as well as the rest of North America are all being taken for a ride this week.

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For more information, contact:

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Even my margin of error can't account for this one...

The last two days of market trading have been unusual, but not expected. You might have known that, with signs that the economy is picking up, they'd be going mad on the New York Mercantile Exchange floor again. With oil up almost $9.00 US the last couple of weeks,it was to be expected...

The kicker?...

Numbers for two days are showing possible interruption to occur next week,IF the trend holds up with the gasoline numbers I'm looking at right now.

Keep in mind that interruption needs seven consecutive days where the average exceeds four cents +/- from the previous price setting. My previous average from the Thursday morning upwards adjustment is 44.69 cents for the previous two weeks.

With that said, numbers here show a 5.3 cent a litre upwards movement in pricing, not including taxes. In other words, the first two days averaged 49.95 cents a litre.

Turns out that gasoline, better than a buck a litre, just might be closer than anyone thinks. Just when you thought it might be ok to spend a little more, along comes Big Oil to tank everything again.

I'll keep you all updated!

Regards,

George

UPDATE! Saturday, May 09/09

Five days now show gasoline to increase by 7.3 cents a litre. Two more days to go...

Update! Monday, May 11/09

Six days data now shows an imminent increase to gasoline pricing on the way for residents in newfoundland and labrador. With one more day of data to come, gasoline now shows an allowable increase of 7.2 cents a litre. Spread the word!

Prices to take a down-turn
For now...

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 6, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see a slight dip in prices for most petroleum products this week when the Petroleum pricing Office adjusts prices this coming Thursday, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.


What consumers should see
“Both heating and stove oils should drop by close on 2.1 cents per litre, diesel also heading down another 2.2 cents per litre. Gasoline will drop by just shy of a penny, 9/10ths of a cent on a litre. If the Canadian dollar were still the same value it was two weeks ago, we’d all be looking at an increase in gasoline pricing instead,” said Murphy.

“All petroleum pricing is down slightly in spite of the increase in crude oil prices, mainly because of the performance of the Canadian dollar against the US greenback. While crude has increased by nearly $8.00 US and spot prices also increased during this time, we caught a break with the Canadian dollar gaining six cents against its cousin. Spot prices for gasoline, for example, increased by close to 15 cents a US gallon but we saw a decrease because of the Canadian dollar closing against the US.”

Summer pricing to come
“My nearest projection for summer gasoline pricing is putting the low end of prices at $1.05 a litre by the last week of June, first week of July. Usually, we see prices spike sharply during and after the US Memorial day weekend, the traditional start of the summer driving season in the US. Paring prices this year is mainly due to a couple of factors, namely; gains on gasoline inventories, sharp increases in crude oil inventory and dropping consumer demand figures. All this could change if any of these factors change, like a pick-up in consumer demand, a drop in inventories, or any further production cut from OPEC. Keep in mind that we will also soon hear about the coming hurricane season when we will all hear traders use that threat to drive up pricing.”

Eye on Marine Atlantic
“Since Marine Atlantic removed fuel surcharges, they also promised to review them sometime in June and make their call as to the placement of further fuel surcharges based on any increase in the price of marine type fuels. So far this year, those numbers are taking the same direction downwards as most distillates and, while we still have another month or so to go before they make the decision of adding surcharges again, so far those prices wouldn’t justify a move at this time. We’re keeping a close watch on this one.

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers are down

No price changes this week, however...

While there is something happening in the oil markets besides the threat from swine flu, there is a tense atmosphere that is persiting.

It hasn't reared it's ugly head to traders, as of yet, but it will soon.

What should be happening is a steady drop back in fuel prices along with crude oil, almost to the point where we should be slightly below $30.00 US a barrel, given the contravening evidence.

Markets are witnessing further economic damage, numbers for unemployment keep creeping upwards and inventories of crude oil and it's related, refined commodities are climbing while, the latest figures from the EIA show a slight drop in demand for gasoline and other fuels.

Distillates are bringing the bad news. Heating and stove oil demand is dropping off with the onset of warmer weather and other distillates like diesel and jet fuels, show massive drops in demand numbers, with jet fuel demand down by over nine per cent from last years numbers.

As for gasoline?

Demand numbers now show something that they haven't shown in several weeks. Demand there is also down, even though it may be a paltry .4 per cent against last years numbers for the same time period. It is a foreboding of what is to come, if traders don't notice it soon, they probably will with the next inventory data figures coming out tomorrow; that consumers are hurting out here and the swine flu will only add to the traders misery.

No one is going to travel until this crisis, in a spreading disease that has gone world-wide now, is overwith.

There's a steady trend down, especially with distillates, until the various health agencies world-wide get a grip on this one and, traders using your money and mine, just can't see it yet.

Plane tickets anyone?

In the meantime, here's what I have so far this regulation period:

• Stove oil and heating oils down by 1.94 a litre.
• Diesel down by 2.1 a litre, and...
• Gasoline down by 1.6 or 1.7 cents a litre.

Let's see what happens for the next week, shall we?

Regards,

George

Price changes on the way for Thursday
Distillate demand drops, gasoline increases

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, February 10, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will, once again, experience a drop in distillate prices while gasoline is projected to see a small increase at the pumps this coming Thursday, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Heating, stove oils and diesel to drop
“All the numbers are in and, by all appearances, those fuels connected with the distillate group, namely diesel, heating and stove oils, all will experience drops in pricing. Diesel fuel is projected to drop by 3.0 cents per litre while stove oils are projected to fall close to the same amount, 2.95 cents a litre. The stove oil number may be the harbinger of things to come with heating oils as well as jet fuel demand is also being impacted on the world markets so, that number for heating oils may in fact be slightly more than what we have for stove oils”, said Murphy.

Gasoline prices up slightly
“In the meantime, gasoline is expected to increase slightly by 3.3 cents per litre. Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen the oil industry talking about the possibility of a refiner strike that could affect upwards of 30 thousand workers directly. We’ve also seen a slight drop in the builds of inventories in recent weeks. Even though the number shows very modest increases in inventory, the fact is that refiners are concentrating more on distillate output rather than gasoline and that has helped to support prices. Refined product supplied to the markets is down almost three per cent from last years numbers. Gasoline demand is a bare ½ a percentage point below last year for the same time frame as a result. Even though gasoline production rose slightly against the week previous, refiner capacity is still well below peak production rates, measuring just over 83 per cent.

Crude message in oil
“Crude oil supplies have increased in recent weeks, just one reason why we’ve seen the price of raw crude drop. There’s plenty of it out there and it seems that OPEC cuts have not impacted supply greatly. From the look of things, I believe that the economy is being hit harder than we think. This may be true evidence of the smack we are about to take economically and real troublesome signs of how deep the recession is going to be. We are now into the March contracts for delivery and we haven’t seen the affects of OPEC cuts as of yet. The question is, will we?

Residual fuels and Marine Atlantic
Residual fuel oil, a type of fuel used for marine applications, prices have reached March of 2005 levels and have been experiencing some form of steady pricing in the markets. This should be enough time now for Marine Atlantic to announce its next moves on the remaining nine per cent fuel surcharge that was put on for crossings made by the shipping line. These fuel surcharges were placed in 2008 and previously in 2007 when the fuel price was high and not at 2005 levels. It’s now time for Marine Atlantic to deal with the remainder of the fuel surcharges on crossings of the Gulf. It is also time for the federal government to step in and absorb any future increases in fuel costs that add an artificial inflation rate to goods coming into Newfoundland and Labrador. The people of the province were told through the media by Marine Atlantic officials that the remainder of the fuel surcharge would be dealt with in January. They’re late with it.


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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers confirm prices will rise
Consumers to see an increase in pricing Thursday morning

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, January 6, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will experience something they haven’t seen in a while, a price increase to most petroleum products. All indicators point to the Public Utilities Board using its interruption formula to adjust prices this Thursday morning.

“All the numbers are in and they’re not good. As of Tuesday’s market close, consumers in the province will likely see an added 5.94 cents on heating and stove oils, 6.8 cents a litre up on gasoline and 8.0 cents a litre up on diesel fuel”, said George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“This is a substantial increase caused by market investors playing with the same factors we saw in the run-up in crude oil prices a few years back. We’ve been told for a long time now, that supply disruption concerns have always had a built-in price factor. We’re also seeing investors doing exactly what caused the world economic problem as well; investing in oil without regard for the damage high oil pricing can cause the world economy. They have literally removed some disposable income from the pockets of consumers everywhere.

“We’re seeing them play with OPEC cuts and making bets that they’ll stick and cause a shortage of crude in the markets while we haven’t seen the rest of the bad economic news. They’ve bet on a drop in supply when they should have been betting on a drop in consumer demand. Here’s hoping the investor loses his bet come February.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Consumers to get a break at the pumps...again!

Hi to all...

Just a quickie as I'm probably going to be doing a cross-island jaunt west again as there has been a death in my family. I have not put together an official news release on this as time just simply won't forgive me.

Not all the data is in but, here's a synopsis of what to expect. I don't think there'll be much change in them between now and Wednesday night.

Numbers
Numbers show 2.39 down on heating and stove oils (13 days out of 14 available), 6.1 down on gasoline (6 out of seven days available) and 4.2 down on diesel (13 days out of 14 available) for this Thursday morning.

Looks like CBS gets the honours of being first under a buck, eh?...lol

Reasons why prices are dropping
1) A drop in world demand and poor world economic performance has resulted in a steep decline in the numbers in recent days and that will result in consumers receiving the benefits of that drop.

2) There has been some moderate recovery in the Canadian dollar and that has played into the numbers. Over the last week, the Canadian dollar has recovered almost nine cents against the US greenback.

3) I believe that the markets have recognised OPEC cuts of last week. While oil has bounced around $65 a barrel over the last two weeks now, their related, refined commodity has shown drops as a result of reduced world demand. Look for OPEC to make another cut of 500,000 barrels at it's next meeting of December 17th as it "pays attention" to the poor economic news and moves to support it's own revenue stream.

4) This might be the last drop in heating and stove oils and we have now reached the point they were for the same timeframe last year when we saw pricing start to rise. We're entering the higher winter demand period and that also means more upwards pricing pressure. I think I would top the tank off now to be sure. In the meantime, another sell-off in the markets might start to make pricing fall again so, take that piece of advice with a grain of salt too...lol

5) My gasoline average shows that there will be possible interruption in prices if market conditions allow for spot gasoline to maintain or further drop in value. If that doesn't happen, as interruptuion requires a four cent average move +/- from the last setting, then consumers can expect to see another drop in prices in two weeks time. My average right now is 48.66 a litre over last weeks range of numbers but yesterday, gasoline traded at 44.23 a litre, a 4.43 a litre difference.
I'll keep an eye and let you all know ahead of time.

Hope this short entry helps?...


Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Another drop in prices coming, but...

From the look of things here in the nest in CBS, it certainly looks like we'll be looking at another round of drops at the pumps when the Petroleum Pricing Office sets prices again at the regular interval.

So far, five days of data are showing diesel to drop by 5.6 a litre, gasoline down by 4.5 and heating/stove oils to drop by an important 4.53 cents a litre.

I'll be cautious on this one. OPEC is meeting in the wings of the latest round of price drops to come and I expect them to make substantial cuts to production. Maret-watchers are looking at OPEC to cut production by a million barrels per day. I'm betting on them cutting 1.5 million as they've already cut some production. Iran has already reduced daily output to 3.7 million from 4.3 a day and Saudi Arabia has also reduced ahead of this so-called "emergency meeting".

While not necessarily true that any cuts would help to stabilize the price of oil somewhat, they are facing the prospect of a larger worldwide economic recession and they want to prevent any kind of a glut that could help crash the pricing of oil to them.

Expect an OPEC announcement as early as Tuesday on future cuts. If that's the case, it might be the last of the price drops we'll see barring any real collapse in the North American or European economy.

Why am I crossing my fingers?...

Regards,

George

Another break to consumers on the way
Numbers show interruption to pricing this Thursday

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, October 13, 2008- Consumers can expect to see the benefits of the last weeks crash in oil prices again this week as the Petroleum Pricing Office will be forced to use the interruption formula to bring down pricing, that’s from George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Six days out of seven days data are showing good drops coming to diesel, heating and stove oils and gasoline. Diesel is expected to drop by 6.1 cents a litre, heating and stove oils by 6.65 and gasoline by 7.7 cents a litre this coming Thursday morning. Keep in mind that there may be slight changes to these numbers as there is still one more day to account for.

“The near collapse of the markets and the resounding drop in oil prices last week that bordered on the dramatic are chief reasons why pricing will have to be adjusted down. The numbers would have been substantially more except for the Canadian dollar losing almost 16 cents value against its US counterpart. In effect, consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador should be paying close to nine cents a litre less for gasoline than the new posted price this Thursday as a result of the loss of value in the Canadian dollar since September 29th. Heating and stove oil users would be looking at prices eight cents a litre less for the same reason. It goes to show that Canada is a little too dependent upon its natural resources for export rather than secondary processing. The dollar is weak compared to the troubled US currency and that says a lot.”

Update: heating and stove now shows 6.98 down, gasoline down by 7.7 and diesel down by 6.6 a litre. That's with seven days data. There will be interruption...At least, according to my numbers...
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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com