To keep you up to speed...

Just to keep you all up to date on what's going on with prices...

Hold off on everything.

Heating and stove oils are showing seven cents a litre down, Gasoline is down by 8 and diesel is showing 5.8 cents a litre down as well.

With two more days to become a reality, I would expect that all fuels will fall under the guise of the confines of the interrupter formula and all pricing should be down AT LEAST that much as of Thursday.

I'll be cautious though, as there are still two more days data to get yet.

Stay tuned...

George

Going...going...

Gone...

While other markets saw a substantial drop in pricing the day before yesterday, the rbound in the markets saw some pricing rise again...

Such was the case with the numbers on this end as well.

From the looks of things, we're going to have to wait another week before we seeanything drop at the pumps. The precipitous drop in the markets didn't last as I thought it would have and gasoline traded upwards again. That was enough to put the kaibash on any decrease we could have seen. Numbers were initially projected to range 4.5 to 5 cent a litre but then yesterdays market numbers changed that to closer to three cents.

That means no drop coming for diesels either and that stinks...

You need four cents before interrupt would happen to pricing...

Oh well...

Hopefully the markets will wake up and crash again before then and we'll see something more substantial for next week...

Regards,

George

Prices down...

Look for gasoline to drop by Thursday

With the latest sell-off on Wall Street and traders doubtful about the US bail-out, it certainly looks more likely that gasoline will experience another huge drop later this week, all under the guise of the interrupter formula.

So far today, gasoline is trading down close on seven cents per litre against a drop in oil prices of close to eight bucks US a barrel.

Seems that the markets are doubtful about the bail-out and thusly, are showing the fears of an economic slowdown in our midst. If there's lower demand because of a slowing economy, there's less use of petroleum products. That means lower prices for you and me.

As to how much things could slow?...

According to Blomberg, Deutsche Bank has cut its 2009 forecast for oil prices another 23% and they figure that the average price of oil could hang under $85 US a barrel for the remainder of the year ahead.

Just keep cutting boys, just keep cutting!...

In the meantime, hold back on any major purchases of gas at the pumps. I'll have a better prediction on exactly how much it'll be going down as early as tomorrow morning. Be looking for that.

Regards,

George

What goes up...

Must come down...

I know...

This increase surprised me a little too...

I just didn't know anything about retailers looking for the added 1.25 cents on their margins, not that they didn't deserve it now mind you. What makes me sick about it is that the 'majors' will get it too, as far as I know.

All in all, my numbers in the end allowed for an added 7/10ths of a cent a litre (with my margin of error of 3/10ths of a cent) on gasoline and I also had 2.9 down on heating and stove oils. It was that extra 1.25 added that put the screws to my numbers this time.

Here's what I wanted to let you all in on though...

I've been getting a lot of emails on why our prices haven't come down the same as other jurisdictions and I do have an answer for everyone on that...

Hold off as much as you can until next Thursday, the 24th...

Here's why...

Our regulatory system uses what I like to call a "passive" system of regulation; that is, it waits for events to happen in the markets for a two week period and then reacts to what has occurred during that two weeks of business. Prices that were set this morning were set based on the timeframe of July 2nd and July 15th, from a Wednesday to a Tuesday.

Tuesday was when we saw oil first take it's precipitous dip down, if you remember...

The problem here was exactly that; that prices didn't dip for oil until that last day of the regulatory period. Call it bad luck, but other markets including the immediate Toronto markets, saw prices for gasoline hit $1.40 for the same timeframe which is not unusual for what we saw in crude oil prices.

Our prices never moved during the same time...

Here's where we might see something happen the other way however...

The fall in crude oil prices continues, so much so, that my numbres are already showing the likelihood of a interruption scenario taking shape, only this time DOWN in price. With only the first day of the regulatory period on record, already I'm showing dowjn on gasoline by near eight cents a litre and heating/stove oils down by nearly the same.

I'll be cautious on this one though...

Anything can happen in the markets that might see a complete and utter reversal of what Tuesday saw in the markets and the whole interrupt scenario might be thrown to the wind. I'm holding back on my purchases in the meantime in the hopes that we might see something in the offing next week.

You might want to do the same...

Reagrds,

George Murphy

Numbers show fuel price interruption is possible
Considerable hikes to all petroleum products on the way for Thursday

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 15, 2008- Consumers in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to be hit with a huge increase to all petroleum products this coming Thursday morning if George Murphy’s numbers are right. The numbers are substantial and could start to prove a bone of contention in this country if they remain high.

How much to expect
“So far this regulation period, we’re looking at five days data that are all showing at least at least a 6.7 cent a litre increase to stove oils and a 5.1 cent a litre increase coming for gasoline. Monday’s market numbers are also up for crude oil which has only enforced those figures. I believe there is a very strong possibility that other commodities like heating oil and diesel will also get to take this hit as they are so closely related to stove oils, being part of the same distillate group of fuels. This morning, crude oil hit a new record of $112.48 a U.S barrel as the U.S dollar continues a slide against other world currencies and that is only enforcing my belief that interruption will happen this coming Thursday morning,” said Murphy.

Consumers could face tough choices
“I don’t think we can predict where this will end now. We have a case where people will start to become energy-starved and will face a bigger problem of affording energy over food. That goes especially for people who are on fixed incomes. What we are witnessing on the markets is an investor’s complete fixation with the money to be made off the petroleum markets and consumers are being faced with some pretty tough choices as a result. If we don’t see a substantial drop-off in spot pricing for heating and stove oils in the next couple of weeks, we will face some serious problems keeping warm next winter and that goes for everyone in the province as some electricity is generated via the burning of petroleum products. This is the time of year when we should be witness to falling heating and stove oil pricing, not increases. It has to break. Prices as high as they are now are not sustainable on anyone’s part! If this trend keeps up we’re looking at the possibility that any heating rebate program just isn’t going to cut it and we’ll have to see government assist people into breaking their dependency on oil-related products.

Reasons for the possible increases
“Oil is up for several reasons. Last week saw considerable draws against U.S inventories, as well as supply disruptions in places such as Nigeria, Mexico and the Middle East. Demand for crude in China is also expected to grow as economic growth is expected to hit 10 per cent for the first quarter of the year.

Canada may to face the tough questions
“I believe that this country is going to have to face the tough question about how we are going to afford to keep ourselves warm if we continue to face high prices for oil-related commodities. If people are no longer going to be able to afford heating oil over food, and farmers begin to invest heavily into energy industry related crops, them we may also face the problem of ever-increasing food pricing. We already are facing mass increases in wheat, corn and other crops on mere speculation. When you start to hit food pricing as other world nations have seen, then we have a serious problem. What is this country prepared to do in the event that we face a continuance of the situation we are witnessing in the world markets now?

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Hold off at the pumps!
Numbers show prices will drop Thursday morning

News release

Paradise, NL, July 24, 2007- OPEC is talking about increasing production and gasoline spot prices have continued to drop over the last week. This means a possible break at the pumps to consumers this coming Thursday, according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Expect a drop
“My numbers are showing that for six days out of seven needed for the interrupter formula to kick in so far; pricing is forecast to drop by 4.2 cents per litre on gasoline inclusive of taxes. No drop to other fuels is expected according to my records. To use the interrupter formula to increase or lower prices, we need to see a movement of four cents either way in the markets over seven days, not inclusive of taxes. My numbers show a 3.7 cent a litre drop and that’s within my margin of error of 3/10ths of a cent so, I’m calling the shot on this one. It’s the break to consumers that we’ve been expecting and initially told of last week when pricing was last adjusted. Tuesday’s trading day remains key if we are to see that drop but, gasoline is again trading down today. Expect a break Thursday morning. If it doesn’t, it’s a certainty that we’ll see a drop in prices next wee,” said Murphy.

Refineries pick up output
“Refiner capacity is showing increased growth and inventories are substantial enough now that, at this juncture of the driving season, concerns should be coming off that fuel and its consumption level. Forecasters of this weeks inventory report expect an increase in refiner capacity and that means more product out there on the markets. If that happens, the drops may keep coming barring any unforeseen circumstance like terrorism or hurricanes. I believe that last week was also key when we passed the half-way point of the summer driving season and there wasn’t a huge impact on overall gasoline inventory.

OPEC to pick up production?
“OPEC has expressed some concern over the high price of crude recently and that has sparked a slight sell-off in the markets as traders look at a possible OPEC production increase. That should bring some relief to heating oil users as the heavy oils that OPEC sells the most of, is directly linked to the heavier type fuels like jet, heating and stove oils. If they increase output, then we may see some upwards pressure taken off those fuels. We still haven’t seen those prices drop as we did in other summer seasons. OPEC members will meet, ironically, September 11th in Vienna, Austria.

Hurricane Syndrome remains a factor
Still lurking in the markets is the simple fact that we have gone almost halfway through the Atlantic hurricane season and we still have no hurricanes in our midst. Memories linger with all consumers when prices hit their epoch on Canada and elsewhere as almost 10 per cent of United States production and refining was affected. Traders will no doubt wing prices higher to consumers if hurricanes are forecast to hit any coastal region where production may be affected. While pricing will be pointing down in the next little while as driving season wanes, expect those same traders to use “Hurricane Syndrome” as an excuse to increase pricing at the pumps at anytime.”



-30-


For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Go light on the golden stuff
Gasoline to drop this coming Thursday if the numbers hold today

News release

Paradise, NL, June 12, 2007- Unless there is a drastic increase in the price of gasoline in the markets today, it is likely that consumers will catch another break at the pumps as the Petroleum Pricing Office will have to use their interrupter formula, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Good builds in gasoline inventories over the past three weeks have taken some of the early worries on high summer pricing out of the markets, at least for this week and that is going to translate into a five cent drop at the pumps this coming Thursday morning if the numbers hold so, word here is ‘go light on the gold stuff’,” Murphy said.

“This interruption will bring our spot pricing average down towards the 60 cent a litre basic cost price for gasoline. Gasoline pricing in the markets will have to trade at 65 cents a litre today for any decrease not to happen. This decrease is representative of what Big Oil has seen in the markets; consumers hitting that brick wall on pricing. Demand didn’t show any strong increase to match what was being added to inventories. Demand numbers showed a 1.5 per cent increase against last years’ numbers, a number that showed some weakening against the inventory build.

“While we have already hit a new all-time record on pricing, it doesn’t mean that we’ll see continued drops in pricing. We could see a reversal of this downwards trend as people start their summer vacations. We’re not ready to ease back on warnings of record pricing this summer quite yet although any continued build in inventories would be of benefit to the consumer. If prices drop this week, it would bring pricing down to levels last seen a year ago. That still is reflective of the predicted pricing range that we’ve hit once already.”
-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
(709)782-8053
(709)685-6186 cellular

This could get interesting...

Gasoline to drop...Again?...

Call it what you will, but the fact that U.S interest rates are on the rise just might be of benefit to consumers here in Newfoundland and Labrador this week and possibly other gasoline users in other provinces.

Why?

U.S interest rates are rising because demand for some consumables is dropping. If that happens, as in all likelihood they are, then it may be a sign that inflation is increasing. If that is so, then watchers are predicting a drop in demand of petroleum products.

Of course, a good build in gasoline inventories this week also did its little part in bringing this about.

So far, with five out of a possible seven days data available, it looks like Newfoundland and Labrador consumers are looking at a possible drop at the pumps of a nickel. Could be more than that if Monday and Tuesdays' trading days also figure lower.

Be warned of a possible price drop this week...That's a change isn't it?...

Thought so.

Go light on the liquid gold for now. I'll have more in a release sometime on Tuesday to all the media in our neck of the woods.

Regards,

George