What goes up...

Must come down...

I know...

This increase surprised me a little too...

I just didn't know anything about retailers looking for the added 1.25 cents on their margins, not that they didn't deserve it now mind you. What makes me sick about it is that the 'majors' will get it too, as far as I know.

All in all, my numbers in the end allowed for an added 7/10ths of a cent a litre (with my margin of error of 3/10ths of a cent) on gasoline and I also had 2.9 down on heating and stove oils. It was that extra 1.25 added that put the screws to my numbers this time.

Here's what I wanted to let you all in on though...

I've been getting a lot of emails on why our prices haven't come down the same as other jurisdictions and I do have an answer for everyone on that...

Hold off as much as you can until next Thursday, the 24th...

Here's why...

Our regulatory system uses what I like to call a "passive" system of regulation; that is, it waits for events to happen in the markets for a two week period and then reacts to what has occurred during that two weeks of business. Prices that were set this morning were set based on the timeframe of July 2nd and July 15th, from a Wednesday to a Tuesday.

Tuesday was when we saw oil first take it's precipitous dip down, if you remember...

The problem here was exactly that; that prices didn't dip for oil until that last day of the regulatory period. Call it bad luck, but other markets including the immediate Toronto markets, saw prices for gasoline hit $1.40 for the same timeframe which is not unusual for what we saw in crude oil prices.

Our prices never moved during the same time...

Here's where we might see something happen the other way however...

The fall in crude oil prices continues, so much so, that my numbres are already showing the likelihood of a interruption scenario taking shape, only this time DOWN in price. With only the first day of the regulatory period on record, already I'm showing dowjn on gasoline by near eight cents a litre and heating/stove oils down by nearly the same.

I'll be cautious on this one though...

Anything can happen in the markets that might see a complete and utter reversal of what Tuesday saw in the markets and the whole interrupt scenario might be thrown to the wind. I'm holding back on my purchases in the meantime in the hopes that we might see something in the offing next week.

You might want to do the same...

Reagrds,

George Murphy

Gasoline prices to remain steady-Heating and stove oils to drop

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, July 15, 2008- Consumers of gasoline in Newfoundland and Labrador shouldn’t see much change in gasoline prices this week when the Petroleum Pricing Office sets prices again, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

What the numbers say
“From the looks of things, gasoline prices may show no change according to the first twelve days of data and today’s market activities. Right now, those numbers are showing almost a ‘break even’ scenario. The numbers are slightly different on the heating oil front. Numbers there are showing an almost 1.5 cent a litre decline and that doesn’t include the market sell-off of distillates we’re witnessing right now. Heating and stove oils may drop more than what we have on paper right now,” said Murphy.

“I would expect the heating oil numbers to be the same for stove oils and that should also reflect a very modest decline in diesel prices. How long will the slight retreat in pricing last would be anyone’s guess at this juncture. We already see a possible winter record for heating and stove oil pricing barring any economic collapse and drop in distillate demand. Today the markets are reflecting the stark reality that we’ve seen all along; that consumers are hurting because of high petroleum pricing. Now that various economies failed to react to the rising costs of oil, we’re seeing deeper economic impact and the likelihood of recession. Because of that, there’s a drop in pricing today because of the fears of a drop in petroleum demand. What traders have sown, the economy can reap.

Not out of the woods yet
“Waiting in the wings are other possible factors that could increase pricing again. We are, of course, into Hurricane Syndrome season and that means possible plays in the markets that reflect possible supply disruptions or disruptions to imports. We remember well Katrina and Rita in September ’05. Venezuela also is promising to cut off supply of crude oil to the United States if Exxon Mobil is successful in freezing the assets of the national-owned Petroleos de Venezuela’s overseas assets. Other geo-political factors remain in play such as the ongoing disruptions in Nigeria, OPEC talk of possible production cuts in the face of a drop in world demand and, of course, consumer demand factors.

Last independent retailer to be sold?
There is some concern over the rumored sale of Tibb’s Oil in the immediate St. John’s heating oil market. I have received a couple of calls this week expressing the consumers concern over the possible sale of the area’s last independent retailer and the effect on the heating oil market if there are no independents left. This should be a concern to most after the recent sale of Forward’s Oil to Harvey’s Oil this past April. If wee see the sale of Tibb’s Oil to some other company, we will have seen the removal of the last independent heating oil retailers from the St. John’s market and that means some possible trouble to consumers of the product. I believe that there will be an adverse affect on the retail heating market in the area and that may lead to one company having a more than obvious dominant market position let alone the removal of competition in the market.
I think that, if the rumors were found to be true, then the Competition Bureau should be made to look at the situation and prevent the sale of the company to just that one retailer. It’s here that we need to stand on guard to protect consumers from any dominant market scenario. The problem here is that high heating oil prices themselves have become a factor in the independents demise. A lower sales volume because of an increasing price may well have been a factor in the sale, if it is true. I’m still trying to dig into this one.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Economic warfare 101

Oil is a funny thing...

Give it to one country when there is a high demand and you have the world's attention...

Such is the case of Iran today where oil again, is trading up on the news that Iran will "pull the trigger" if Israel attacks Iran's main nuclear facilities. As a result, there's also a promise of supply disruptions from the Middle east country that amounts to some 4.4 million barrels a day so, if the Israelis do attack the facilities at Natanz like they did at Osiraq in Iraq in 1981, we have a problem. Overall production will not be met by OPEC to cover the needs of an oil-thirsty world and prices will skyrocket because demand will not be met. Spare capacity cannot be met by the group.

A BIG problem...

It's like this. If Iran does disrupt production then we can thirst for heating oil a few dollars more. Gasoline prices will most likely reach unheard of levels.

The likelihood of an attack by the Israelis is good as they've done it before and with perfect execution. Without loss to themselves, Israel launched a daring raid against Iraq's nuclear research facilities by flying below radar over Jordan, the Iraq countryside and below radar defenses. The attacks that knocked out Iraqi facilities was over in less than a half hour and the Israeli air force flew back unscathed to home soil.

If yesterdays missile tests are any indication, expect to hear of a raid carried out by Israeli forces almost any day now. Israel will not sit lightly and wait for Iran to strike first. They've never been one to turn the cheek since Munich .

To tell you the truth, I couldn't blame them one bit.

I just can't stop thinking how much the Iranian government might be making on oil just because it is rattling sabres again, photo-shopped pictures and all.

Economic warfare.

Coming soon to a gas pump near you.

Keep the oil tank filled if you can...

Regards,

George

Heating and stove oils…

Interruption possible this week to heating and stove oil prices

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, July 8, 2008- Consumers of heating and stove oils, and possibly diesel fuel, may see an increase in price this week that could be as much as 6.66 cents a litre. That would bring the maximum retail price in excess of $1.29 a litre for the St. John’s and immediate area.

“The numbers I have as measured for the first five days of this regulation period range in excess of six cents a litre. It remains to be seen if during Monday and Tuesday trading those prices backed down as much as oil did in order to avoid interruption. If they never, consumers could be looking at a new all-time record price for heating and stove oils, all at a time that puts the important heating product on life support”, said George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices. “If they did, then we’re still looking at a possible increase to consumers coming next week. Gasoline will not face interruption to pricing this week. I guess you can say that ‘Pump Day’ is officially cancelled until next week”

“What should bother people is the fact that we’re now experiencing hot weather and that’s the time when traditionally, heating and stove oils have been known to crash but the alarming aspect here is that prices are moving in the opposite direction. Numbers here I worked up are showing that $1.40a litre heating and stove oil is a distinct possibility this winter unless we see a mass retreat in prices. Sad to say but there has to be evidence of heavy economic damage or large inventory builds in distillates before we see any retreat in heating and stove oil pricing.

“Diesel pricing may also be reflected in those numbers although I don’t expect to see as large an increase. Diesel may dodge the interruption process but, if it doesn’t, we’ll be looking at a larger burden being placed on our transportation and fishing industries. They need some sever help but, no one is listening. It might be 25 degrees outside today but there’s more than 25 degrees of separation between what the markets are doing and the actualities that we hear that the markets should be reacting on.

“What the investor doesn’t realize is the fact that, not only are small independent oil dealers being sucked dry by the loss of volume, but they are also destroying the need for heating and stove oils as primary heat sources. They’re forcing people to go to other sources of heat other than petroleum products. They are, in fact, setting themselves up to get burned and, at the same time, radically changing the home heating markets in such a short time..

“Last week it was a drawdown in crude inventory, as miniscule as it was, the ongoing world geo-political situation in Nigeria and more importantly, the Iran situation and their pursuit of a nuclear program and Israel’s promise of an attack against those facilities. Also mixed into the equation is the falling US dollar and investors continuing to hedge against commodities rather than the US greenback. What about the fundamentals like dropping demand?”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Don't look now, but...

If the latest numbers are any indicator, the price of home heating oil will most likely take its largest single summertime jump that I have ever recorded...

What does that mean?

In all likelihood, prices for heating and stove oils will take a jump up to the highest yet recorded for the immediate St. John's area to $1.29 a litre for the necessity. In other words, the Petroleum Pricing Office will have to use its interruption formula to adjust pricing.

Not saying it's going to be a definite here but, hey...Be warned...There's a strong possibility...

Blame this one on the speculators again...

Regards,

George

Numbers pointing down, but…
No big changes to fuel pricing forthcoming

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, July 1, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will be surprised to hear that there will be no large price change this time around when the Petroleum Pricing Office sets prices this coming Thursday although the numbers are pointing slightly down.

“Numbers here show that gasoline will drop by 1.5 cents per litre and heating-stove oils by 1.97 cents. Bear in mind that those numbers were for twelve days out of fourteen needed and oil has traded well up from last week which may have brought these numbers closer to a ‘no change’ or ‘0’ level albeit, still slightly down. We may have been victimized out of a substantial downwards move in prices by the rapid changes in the world geo-political situation in the last few days”, said George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Reasons why prices are still up
“Continued tensions between Iran, Israel and the United States, supply disruptions that may result from the area along with supply disruptions in Nigeria continue to weigh on crude oil pricing. A falling US dollar and inflation fears also factored into the markets and help support pricing in spite of the promises from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to help supply the oil markets with more product. The political situation in Libya and their promise to disrupt supply last week also didn’t help matters.

“Heavy investment continues in the oil markets as the US Federal Reserve continues to stay away from any rate increases that could help bolster the US dollar and also provide that important hedge to inflation fears. It remains a mystery as to why they haven’t raised rates.

Oil outlook for the winter not good
There is no sign of relief in heating and stove oil prices as the markets continue to trade distillates at record levels. Prices on the futures markets are also trading higher than last year and that means no immediate relief coming for users of those products ahead of September. It doesn’t help to see the markets trading distillates higher on word that diesel fuel has become the pre-eminent transportation fuel of choice. Heating oil continues to trade close to $4.00 a US gallon. If pricing doesn’t start to drop back soon, consumers can expect to start the winter heating season with pricing of $1.20 a litre possible.

Marine Atlantic rate increases could have been avoided
Consumers and industry could have avoided taking a hit from Marine Atlantic if the federal company had only implemented some fuel saving arrangements. Tons of fuel could have been saved merely by reducing the speed that the ferries cross the Gulf of St. Lawrence by anything less than a knot. Was it a case of increasing rates as a result of people wanting to get across the Gulf fifteen minutes quicker? If anything, the Marine Atlantic Gulf crossing should have seen its additional costs absorbed by the feds as it is an essential service. Does anyone know what Marine Atlantic does to practice fuel conservation?

Newfoundland Power rate increase to consumers
As a result of oil price increases, Newfoundland Power was forced last week to pass on rate increases to consumers based on oil-generated electricity costs. What should have happened was the provincial government, through Newfoundland Hydro, should have been made to absorb the additional costs to oil-generated electricity. While we can’t interfere with the private operations of the publicly-traded Newfoundland Power, the government could have changed the Hydro Act to get the crown corporation to absorb the oil hit to consumers. We know that Hydro is owned by us, but we still don’t have the power to dictate how it uses its money or its profit; Government does and we are the government. This was a totally unnecessary increase that caused an undue amount of hardship to a lot of consumers. We really won’t feel their full effect until the weather cools down again and we have a good chance of seeing additional increases as a result of the performance of oil. The price may be good for the government treasury but the consumer has yet to see the full benefits.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Can this be true?

Gasoline and heating prices may drop next week?

Yes, you may be shocked to hear that...

Numbers from the New York Mercantile Exchange today are showing that gasoline, heating oil and stove oil prices may, indeed show a small decrease next week in Newfoundland and Labrador as markets react to the surprise build in overall inventories of crude and distillate supplies.

So far this week, gasoline had been showing about two cents a litre down and heating-stove oils to be down about three cents a litre. We still have another couple of days to go before the next price setting and the numbers I have still don't show for interruption but, hey, I think I'd be holding off as much as possible before I call in the heating oil truck...

Crude oil showed a modest, but important 800 thousand barrel gain against an expected 1.1 million barrel draw against inventory. Guess that's what you get in return for driving up prices in the first place; enforced conservation that's beginning to show itself!

Securities and Exchange Commission

A file is now opened at the US Securites and exchange Commission based on a letter of complaint I sent in dealing with market trading on June 6th that saw oil shoot up by that $10.76 US. We'll let you know what, if anything, comes from that. Ironic as it was, there were a few important resignations from energy trading firms in the immediate days prior to the drive-up in oil prices that prompted me to drop the SEC a note on the matter.

I'll be in touch!

Regards,

George

No dodging the bullet this week...
Gasoline prices to take a swipe at consumers this week

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, June 17, 2008 – Consumers in the province will be taking another hit in the pocketbook this week as prices for gasoline are expected to take a 5.5 cent a litre increase on Thursday, that’s from George Murphy, group researcher and a member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

What will consumers see?
“Twelve days of data out of a possible fourteen needed show that prices will jump this week by 5.5 cents per litre at the pumps. It’s not going to be any significant difference, the other two days. The numbers will be close to what we have. While we didn’t get it on the chin last week, we know we’re going to get it this week and this one will hurt. I have a number for heating and stove oils but, I’m not that trusting in the number until I see what the PUB will do this week. I’m showing an upwards move but I want to see if there’s any redress back to what I traditionally had before the numbers went out of whack last week. I never changed my system of measure for the last ten years yet, the numbers went way out of the traditional for the past summers’ measurement so, I don’t want to make a prediction until I see what the PUB moves the figures by. I will tell you though, that the heating and stove oil numbers show ‘up’. Is there a conspiracy against what I do? I don’t know. Someone else will have to answer that,” said Murphy.

Marine Atlantic increases rates
We told you all about a month ago that Marine Atlantic would soon have to adjust rates simply because of the move in distillates and oil pricing but, a conversation I had with Marine Atlantic staff some time ago tells me that the increases may not be necessary if the company does one of two things; namely ask Ottawa to absorb the increases outside of it’s budget or do the environmentally positive thing and slow down the boat by a knot or two. While Ottawa may not do the right thing, the possibility that slowing down the crossing on the Gulf by a knot or two would save untold tons of fuel that is leading to the fuel surcharges being added to the price of a ticket. The sources from Marine Atlantic tell me that slowing down the boat just a little may be able to help the company prevent passing on the hike to the price of the crossing. I’m told that, if they slow the ferry crossing by a knot to conserve fuel, it would add an extra fifteen minutes to the Gulf passage. Can this be true? What has Marine Atlantic done in regards to fuel conservation measures? It also begs the question, is the provincial government getting ready to hit the taxpayer with the same thing here for ferry services?

Inventories take a beating
The news out of the Energy Information Administration last week may have been a little bullish in the extreme but the markets still traded on a downturn in crude inventories never-the-less. “Here we are with something in the order of nine million more barrels of gasoline in the inventory but we see a draw-down in crude oils because of ‘anticipated’ demand. Here we are looking at a drop in consumer demand for gasoline by 1.3 per cent but we still see active trading on anticipated heavy consumer demand. I simply don’t get how these guys do it and the markets get away with it. It’s all bad news in spite of all the good news out there.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

P.S I'll update the numbers on a daily basis as the info becomes available but, i don't anticipate much change in them.

Big win for consumers
Competition Bureau hits a home run

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, June 13, 2008 – Some oil companies are going to have to “work harder” to gain back the consumers trust after the federal Competition Bureau pressed charges of price fixing and collusion against several Quebec companies yesterday.

Three companies have already pleaded no contest and face up to two million dollars in fines for their folly and one of those companies also has operations here in Newfoundland and Labrador. Ultramar Limited was fined close to 1.9 million in their role in the scheme.
The Bureau is also alleging that other retailers operating under the Shell, Esso, Irving Oil and Petro-Canada picked up the phone and called each other to agree on what price to set.

“Consumers in this country have believed that companies charged the same price because they were afraid of giving any market advantage to the other guy. Now the Bureau has found out that this is not the case. In reality, what they found out was that, at least some of the companies literally made a fortune in spite of ensuring we were ‘getting good value’ for our dollar. Now they have to go to work and try to gain the trust back from us,” said George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“It’s just another reason why we have gas regulation in this province. There’s a lack of trust among oil companies and the lack of competition before regulation was quick to point that out. Fact is, is that oil companies here and elsewhere purchase gasoline and other oil products on different days and the price is different between those companies for that very reason, yet the price didn’t change between companies here. It begs to question if companies here may also be under the scrutiny of the Competition Bureau. Before regulation came in, there was no control to prevent such a thing from happening here. It would not surprise me in the least to learn that the Bureau had companies here under investigation because they failed to drop the price when the markets showed a drop in pricing. It has to be asked of the oil companies here, knowing that there is no regulation of the minimum to be charged here, why they don’t compete on that basis for market share.

“The Competition Act and the Bureau both need to get a little more work. Laws preventing the sharing of supply have to be revisited and such things as ‘reciprocal sales agreements’ and market rationalization of the oil refining industry need to be examined. Companies should never be allowed to share from the one source of supply that happens in some areas of the country, particularly in less populated areas. It is, I believe that simple ‘reciprocal sales’ arrangement that has ‘tempted’ oil companies to charge the same price in the first place. If Ultramar wants to sell here, they should be shipping in their own product from the Montreal refinery instead of buying stock off their competition like Irving or North Atlantic.

“Lead us not into temptation.

“The Competition Bureau and Liberal M.P Dan McTeague both need to be congratulated today for the hard work both parties have put in over the face of this investigation and for the changes in the Competition Act that are being lobbied hard for. What is missing here is restitution back for consumers and a means of levying heavier fines in the wake of the money that these companies garnered at the consumer expense. It’s going to be a long road back for some of these companies to earn consumer trust. These charges show that consumers didn't get value for their money.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Err on the side of caution…
Interruption possible to most fuel products

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, June 11, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador are starting to get used to the idea that pump prices are changing on a weekly basis almost every Wednesday now, and they may be right.

The numbers are close to those required for the use of the interruption formula so, the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices is warning of a possible increase at the pumps tonight as they believe that the criteria has been met for the use of the interruption formula to bump up pump prices by a possible five cents a litre.

“Six days out of seven needed are showing a move upwards by 4.4 cents per litre plus taxes and that works out to a plug nickel at the gas pumps but the problem here is that we simply just don’t have that seventh day of data needed to nail this one down,” said George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Heating and stove oils do not show the need for any price adjustments this week although it would not surprise me that they would go up in spite of my numbers. Here’s still a days piece of data that is missing and the numbers are close there.

Home retrofit program on the way
According to Mr. Tom Marshall on an Open Line show on Monday night, government is working on getting a home retrofit program put in place this year in the face of higher energy costs.

”While this might be seen as a good thing, it’s my belief that such a retrofit program should entail government help for those who want financial help in converting their heating systems from oil-based sources back to electricity. While electricity may be also based on demand, government has the ability through legislation, to prevent any spikes in electricity charges that may be passed on through Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and that’s the beauty about owning the corporation. It belongs to the taxpayer of the province and we can call the shot on what costs that Hydro can absorb rather than pass down to the consumer.



Traders’ emphasis on distillates could mean more trouble
Heating and stove oil users can now be warned that, according to one news story from the markets this week, that special emphasis is now being placed on the distillate group of fuels as diesel and jet fuels have now become more predominantly used over gasoline worldwide. That means that heavier investment in diesel will be likely and that should be enough to support higher prices for any distillates for the foreseeable future. “There is a steady demand for distillates as both a transportation fuel and a heating source in the northeast of the continent and most of Europe and that means that consumers are more susceptible to higher price swings. This week alone, distillate fuels traded upwards by eight per cent and that’s for July delivery,” said Murphy.

New refinery on the way - but not for Newfoundland and Labrador
If you had your way, would you allow Canadian crude oil to go south of the border to be refined in South Dakota? Apparently, someone has…
Voters in Elk Point, South Dakota have given approval to rezoning for the construction of a refinery for Hyperion Resources that will, according to the Associated Press new story “process thick Canadian crude oil” at a rate of 400,000 barrels per day. Construction of the refinery is set to begin in 2010 and last for four years, bringing with it 1800 permanent jobs and 4800 jobs during construction.

“Why is it that we have to allow our crude to go south of the border for processing? What’s the matter with this country, that we can’t process our products here and ship the excess to customers in the United States if they want the product? Is it that easy to construct a refinery there instead of here? The Canadian government needs to do more for the consumer in this country like support the processing of our own resources in this country rather than help support the US economy. The Newfoundland and Labrador Government also needs to ensure that none of our offshore resources leaves our waters without secondary processing."

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Note to readers:
This a formal letter to the United States Securities and exchange Commission asking the Commission to look into possible wrong-doings during last weeks $11.00 run-up in the price os crude oil. Remember that oil also traded up by $5 the day previously...




United States Securities and Exchange Commission
Division of Enforcement


Dear sir or Madam;

I am writing to you today to formally ask you to look into the latest market trading days as I believe that there may have been some wrongdoing on the investment front as it pertains to oil-related trading.

During the past few weeks, consumers in the United States and other jurisdictions including Canada, have all been led to believe that oil is trading on a fair and equitable basis and trading is based on the actualities that occur day to day.

While trading may occur on a speculative note, the actions of the markets the past few months, in particularly the past few days of trading, far excess what the market is actually worth and what the actual cost of oil should be. I believe that there may have been an attempt to reap huge gains from oil trading in the last few days, particularly on June 05, 2008 and June 06, 2008 inclusive.

I am asking that the Securities and Exchange Commission, on behalf of all consumers of petroleum products, investigate the following items for your consideration, namely;

1) Was there a case of insider trading before the release of pertinent market information that was used by traders to bargain on the speculative news events of the day, namely a prediction of $150 per barrel oil that was made by analysts at Morgan Stanley?

2) Was there any collusion between traders and investment firms that resulted in a $10.75 per barrel increase in crude oil and related commodity prices?

3) While the markets traded on the basis of a said inventory gain on the Wednesday previous to gasoline and distillate inventories, did traders and investment firms manufacture news items that would have led to a high level of speculative increases to oil and its related commodity pricing?

While trading may occur on a speculative nature, it is highly unusual for markets to trade on news that is already considered to be an “ongoing issue” in terms of newsworthy stories that may affect them. On Thursday and Friday, the markets already were trading on an imminent attack by Israel upon Iranian nuclear facilities. If, in fact, war was to break out in the Middle East as some fear, then why is it that the markets traded downwards on January 17, 1991 at the start of the last Persian Gulf War? Oil, in fact, traded down that day by $10.56 U.S a barrel in spite of attacks against Israel and disruptions in oil exports from Iraq.

As regards to the “news” from the research paper by analysts at Morgan Stanley, they are basing their figures on a presumption of no drop in demand where, in fact, the United States Energy Information Administration has found a 1.4% drop in consumer demand, contrary to the Morgan Stanley forecast.

I am asking the Commission to formally investigate the three above points on behalf of consumers in North America and I look forward to your response.


With best regards,



George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

No relief at the pumps
Consumers will see price at the pumps exceed $1.42 a litre

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, June 3, 2008 - Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see an increase at the pumps this coming Thursday morning when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices.

“Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will experience prices that were higher on only one other occasion; during the Hurricane Katrina and Rita incidents when the markets faced a huge supply disruption. Trouble consumers should have with this is that we have just entered into the start of the hurricane season and markets are already trading on the potential for further disruptions in supply”, said George Murphy, group researcher ad member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Consumers will see an added 3.8 cents a litre on gasoline and we’re still looking at heating and stove oils to take an upwards move by close to 2.4 cents a litre. That number may also be pointing the way to a possible increase in diesel as well. Those numbers are based on twelve days of data out of a possible fourteen days available as of release time. An increase to heating and stove oils will mean a new price record for consumers with almost $1.22 charged by some companies in the St. John’s and immediate area.

“Well, here we go again! We are looking at Newfoundland and Labradorians and other Canadians being screwed by traders that are trading on events that have yet to happen. We haven’t seen any disruption in Canadian refiner capacity or supply because of hurricanes, yet we get to pay the lump for speculators and production disruptions thousands of miles away. When are the country and our politicians going to learn to start to protect Canadians from market speculators? Why is there no talk of new trading laws that prevent such speculation? Where is the system of national reporting of available inventory, the security of supply and production data that should be made available to all Canadians? Why hasn’t government looked at the possibility of setting up a new trading bourse in Canada where oil could be traded based on the Canadian condition?

“Ask yourself ‘why not’ when you hear that Venezuelans are paying twelve cents a US gallon for gasoline. Why should Canadians be made to pay the piper for gasoline, heating and stove oils or choose between heat or food this coming winter?

“We’re seeing the ‘same old-same old’ in the markets again the past two weeks; Concerns for supply from places like Nigeria and the Middle East, concerns over available summer gasoline supply and demand factors all remain. A draw-down in crude supply last week also came as a surprise to some speculators but oil still dropped when it was also announced last week that there was an ongoing investigation into trading of oil on the futures markets.

“It may now be June month and we have very little time left before we see the markets start trading on the August buying contract. A lot has to happen to heating and stove oils before we see any drop in pricing there but, so far this summer, fall heating and stove oil pricing are only pointing one way; up.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Stove and heating to take a beating…
Numbers show possible increase coming to heating and stove oils

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 28, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see a possible increase to heating and stove oils this Thursday as numbers seem to show that the Petroleum Pricing Office may have to use the interrupter formula.

“Six days of a possible seven days data shows a possible upwards movement of 4.4 cents a litre, just 4/10ths over the requirement for the use of the interrupter formula. I don’t believe that, in spite of the drop in oil yesterday, that distillate prices dropped enough to prevent the use of the formula so, it looks like consumers here may be hit,” said George Murphy, of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Gasoline numbers are showing an added 3.5 cents a litre, not inclusive of taxes, so, according to the rules, that fuel is not susceptible to a price change tonite. However, I will be going to the pumps in case their numbers were a little more volatile than my own in this case. It’s only by a half cent and I really need that last days data to make the more accurate prediction. That day’s data won’t be available to me until after Thursday’s price move- IF it happens. I’d rather err on the side of caution personally. In the event there is no move in pricing on Thursday then consumers will most likely get tagged next Thursday at the regular price change time.

" What should sicken people is the simple fact that, if this price change holds true, it will be happening at a time when the trend traditionally shows downwards in the summer non-demand season for heating and stove oils. People should realy be worried over their heating expenses this coming winter if this keeps up. Heavy investment is beginning to lead to a collapse in the need for heating and stove oil product. Investment is actually going to kill the distillate market by making this product unaffordable to most consumers in North America. Are they pricing Canadian and US consumers out just to send the product overseas to the more lucritive European and Aian markets?

"Are we easterners going to be left freezing in the dark?

“Continued heavy demand by investors in commodities like gasoline and distillates again are playing heavy into the markets this past week and there was some added pressure on gasoline as well with the final run-up to the US Memorial Day holiday. What we keep hearing out there is the fact that all this high price jargon continues to make for an artificially-supported price and there is simply no justification in numbers that we see here that they should be this high. This is a bubble that is soon to break and bring investors to the short end of the stick. At least, here's hoping!”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices My email: gasprices@hotmail.com

Ottawa won’t help ease pressure on consumers
Says there’s nothing they can do

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 22, 2008 – Consumers in Canada and in Newfoundland and Labrador will have to face the uphill costs of oil pricing without any help from Ottawa even though they have the means to do it, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“We’ve long asked the province as well as Ottawa, to help consumers in this province as well as the rest of the country, address the higher costs of energy that includes everything from heating and stove oils, natural gas and transportation fuels and both Ottawa and the province have, as yet to respond outside of the province passing heating rebates. According to some news stories, they have quoted the Prime Minister as saying that ‘Ottawa can do nothing’ to help the consumer and that ‘we can’t go out and spend like drunken sailors’.

“I beg to differ with the Prime Minister on these points as we have suggested several steps over the years that have gone ignored by his office and that of the natural resources minister, Gary Lunn. What we have found out is that the Prime Minister should have said ‘We are not willing to do anything about escalating oil prices and high prices to consumers’.

“Over the years, we have suggested cuts in transportation taxes, the dropping of the GST/HST off all forms of heat, and a system of inventory reporting to make Big Oil accountable for the energy resources it exports and reports in this country. All these calls have gone unanswered by the Prime Minister’s office and the province of Newfoundland and Labrador. Perhaps the Prime Minister should call a First Minister’s meeting at his behest and prove that he can co-operate with the provinces and try to reach a consensus on dropping some of the taxation components on transportation fuels.

“What should bug consumers in this country is the simple fact that, rather than do nothing, the federal and provincial governments should be seen to be doing something. To me, it shows weak leadership when consumers in this country are looking for help but they can’t get it. Ottawa and the provinces should be working closely together on this issue for consumers but they're not. So much for federal-provincial relations!

“Our tourism and transportation, forestry and fishing sectors are all in trouble with a high dollar and we still have to deal with the governments OPEC dependency; a country such as ours, loaded with oil resources, and we’re still importing from OPEC members. Break the OPEC dependency, for one.

“We’ve suggested everything else from a moratorium on refinery closures, new competition rules that would outlaw the ‘reciprocal sales agreements’ between oil companies and investments in hydro projects like the new Churchill Falls development, but all calls have gone unheeded. While this federal government is in power, it’s going to be harder still to show the rest of Canadians that it can lead on consumer issues. On the energy cost issue and the high price of oil, right now it’s not showing much imagination to guard Canadians from the future. Right now, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is not standing on guard for thee and Canadians should be disappointed with his cavalier attitude on energy pricing issues.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Last weeks miss is this weeks hit…
Consumers will see price increase to gasoline this Thursday

Media release

Conception Bay South, May 20, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will face the inevitable this coming Thursday morning when they will experience another increase at the pumps.

What consumers will see
“Consumers barely dodged the increase last week. Numbers were so close that they fell within the margin of error that I work with and that’s why we made a price increase warning. This week, there is no mistaking that there is going to be an increase at the regular price setting. Numbers are still falling close to what we had last week, of 3.9 or 4.0 cents per litre up at the pumps. That’s with twelve days reporting out of a possible 14 needed to get the final numbers.

“Heating and stove oils are showing an added 65/100ths of a cent up and that may be pointing the way of diesel fuels as well. We’re still not seeing the substantial drop in distillate prices in the non-demand season as in other years and that should be very concerning for those using distillates for winter heating sources.

Why prices will be going up
“Market volatility is still playing heavy in the markets this last two weeks. Heavy trading in commodities against a lower U.S dollar continues to be a factor in oil and its related refined commodities. Distillates, as of last week, are still showing an increase in demand over the same timeframe last year, of close to one per cent. Of course, we still have the same geo-political conditions still playing themselves out in the markets as well and that’s besides the various disruptions and threats to supply. While refiner capacity increased last week, low reported profit margins are not enticing refiners to get back into the production of gasoline while gasoline itself, shows a drop in consumer demand by .2 per cent ahead of the traditional start of the US summer driving season. The big news this week however, is that heating and stove oils continue to show an increase in price while we enter the non-demand season and this should be a worry to those users of fuels for the coming winter. If we don’t start to see a drop in demand numbers there along with a corresponding drop in spot prices, we are going to be in big trouble.




Some changes made to the Gas and Oil Update
We have made some changes that will make it easier for consumers to obtain our information. Consumers only have to go to www.gasandoil.blogspot.com and use the subscribe option to get the ‘Heating and Gasoline Update’ delivered to their inbox. I found that it was simply too hard to get everyone to send you an email back when their email address had changed. This will make it easier to do the administration of good versus bad email addresses that has long been a problem. I hope that the consumers of the province avail of the service as it is a free service to consumers.

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

How it all worked out...

I guess by the time you all drop in on this note, you will have already heard where the numbers went; mostly up. I guess we dodged a bullet when gas didn't move as I thought it would, but how close was it in the end?

From my media friends at VOCM, I got details of the hit on heating and stove oils and, as it turns out, with seven days now reporting here, I was out by something in the order of 3/100ths of a cent. My final number aloowed for an increase of 7.71 cents. That means that the decrease we all got from the removal of "jet" from the summer mix, was eradicated in one stroke of the pen.

What's worse is that our fishers and transportation sectors got the perverbial kick in the teeth overnight with an allowable 9.2 cents a litre increase to diesel pricing. That's why I say in my releases whenever I talk about the heating/stove oil numbers that "the number may also be pointing the way that diesel will also be going", in this case, UP...

Gas was a little different as the volitility of the markets got to me on this fuel.In the end I had an allowable of 4.1 cents a litre, if you include taxation, or 3.6 without the tax component. The interrupter works on the basis of a four cent a litre movement up or down as measured over seven days.

I usually call my shot with five days reporting so everyone can be a step ahead, particularly when it comes to heating and stove oils and to give the media a chance to report and get the word out to everyone...

My margin for error is 3/10ths of a cent and, with the volitility I figured that I would get the word out on a chance increase in case I might be off just a little; in this case by that extra 1/10th of a cent that would have moved my numbers up to four cents even on gasoline. Guess I "missed it by that much".

Hence, we dodge a bullet for this week with pricing for gasoline still on track for a possible 3.6 cent a litre plus taxes increase coming for next week at the regular setting of prices.

I just hope no one was inconvenienced by my call on this one.

Oh well, it's off to bed and call Randy Simms in the morning!

Sometimes, a tenth of a cent can ruin you...lol

Regards,

George Murphy

Another kick in the personal economic teeth
Numbers warrant an increase to heating/stove oils…Again

News release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 13, 2008- Unless divine intervention sets into the markets this week, and soon, consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will experience the biggest weekly hike in heating and stove oil pricing that they have ever seen for this time of the year.

“Numbers for heating and stove oils show an allowable 7.4 cent a litre increase coming this Thursday morning as these numbers fall well within the guidelines set for early interruption of pricing, that’s also with five days out of a possible seven days of data needed for interruption to occur. Being a part of the distillate group, there is a possibility that diesel may also get hit.

“Gasoline now is showing an allowable of 3.5 cents a litre but, the way those numbers have been going as of late, it wouldn’t surprise me if pricing did move early. Those numbers are just outside of the guides for interruption but, just by a minimum. There is still a slight chance that they won’t albeit; I’m still hitting the pumps myself on Wednesday night.

“Continued heavy investment in commodities ahead of the dropping US dollar, supply disruptions and the continuing geo-political situation are to blame as they always have been. I just find it incredible that heating and stove oil pricing will increase again, all during the non-demand season. Right now, I am looking at a 95.00 cent a litre cost price where there was a 55.00 cent a litre cost last year for this time period. It’s early but there are the signs of big trouble on the heating and stove oil fronts this winter coming.”

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For more information, please contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Disaster in the making
Air Canada hikes airfares ahead of tourism season

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 10, 2008- Air Canada raised fuel surcharges on all fares yesterday and that could prove a back-breaker for the Newfoundland and Labrador tourism sector this year.

“The move by Air Canada follows the major United States airlines that raised their airfares as a result of higher fuel costs. American, United and Delta airlines all raised their airfares by $20.00 US on all flights bringing total fuel surcharges to those companies that add up to near $130.00 US,” Murphy said. “That is far less than what Air Canada will be charging in total for flights that exceed 1600 kilometers. As far as I can tell, Air Canada will be charging close to $180.00 in fuel surcharges alone and the government, no doubt, will also get a piece of the price of the extra costs on the ticket. I think Air Canada overdid the surcharge.”

“The federal government, along with the provinces, is going to have to do something big here to prevent a disaster from falling on our tourism sectors in this country this year and it’s going to have to be done now. Here in Newfoundland and Labrador, we depended heavily on air traffic to bring visitors here and now they face the huge costs to get here as a result of being far away from most major centers. If I come from Toronto, I will be subject to the additional $120.00 in fuel surcharges that Air Canada brought in yesterday. Can the federal government address the tax on airfares?

“We’ve asked government here to address high road taxes. If our visitors cannot afford to fly, then perhaps with a little incentive like dropping some of the gasoline taxes, they could promote more drive-in traffic into the province. God knows the tourism sector could use the help now as Big Oil continues to reap the rewards of the high cost of oil.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

I dunno people...I talked about this possibility just before Christmas this year and government still didn't act...I guess they'll be in panic mode now.Going to cost some flying back and forth
Ft. Mac a fortune now...I just hope a lot of you booked early like I recommended.

Oil keeps rising, so does the price of gas
Consumers to get dinged at the pumps again

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 7, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will notice a jump at the pumps again tonight, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see another increase at the pumps tonight as numbers are showing an allowable two cents a litre over twelve days of data recorded. While stove oils show a very slight decline, the number is too low to note any real change in pricing and that may be an indicator that there will be a slight adjustment in heating and diesel oil pricing,” said Murphy.

Reasons why prices will go up
“Continued supply disruptions in Nigeria and the promise of Kurdish attacks against Northern Iraq oil infrastructure as revenge against the United States for sharing satellite intelligence with Turkey, drops in production in Russia and Mexico and heavy investment in related fuel commodities continues to dictate what consumers will pay at the pumps. A run-up in oil driven mainly by speculators continues to put upward pressure on oil pricing as a result of investors hedging against the drop in the U.S dollar.

New investment laws needed
“There’s a fine line between investment in the actualities of the oil markets and the reality of the markets that has been costing people so much. Using important consumer products that have faced no appreciable increase in demand has become the norm in the markets as of late. The simple laws of supply and demand have been thrown to the wind. Food costs have gone up merely on speculation that they will be of more interest to companies for the manufacture of bio-fuels rather than for the basics of human consumption and this has already caused problems in other countries. The high cost of diesel has resulted in other added costs to foodstuffs. It is only a matter of time before we see more food costs passed to the consumer. What investors are doing instead of speculating on the actualities of the markets is, in fact, speculating on starvation. They’re betting that food as a fuel is more important than food for consumption.


Time for a new National Energy Program to protect Canadians?
“The Government of Canada should certainly be looking at the possibility of protecting the Canadian consumer from outside sources of pricing influence knowing that we are self-reliant in our resources of oil. We should, as a country, institute a new National Energy Policy that protects Canadian consumers and industries like the fishery from outside influences like OPEC. If they can sell gasoline in downtown Tehran for 11 cents a US gallon, then we can sell our own refined product to Canadians for a Canadian price.

Heating oil users will face problems next winter
“I have not noted any appreciable drop in heating oil prices and that remains a worry as consumers usually start to see a retreat in distillate pricing during the spring. That trend has yet to happen and the promise is there to see higher than normal pricing again next winter. Prices need to see a retreat of almost 50 cents a litre in the coming months to return to some form of ‘normalcy’ in their heating expenses. A lot of people have to jump in here in order to avoid any problems for consumers and to put heating/stove oil pricing back to where they were in 2005.

Food banks will need help
“Heating oil users face a dilemma this coming winter if pricing does not return to more affordable levels. They will again be faced with the challenge of choosing between food and fuel this winter. Food banks can expect to see another increase in traffic if heating oil pricing fails to drop. Numbers here indicate the fact that consumers will face that tough choice as all models show heating/stove oil pricing will be up again this coming winter. Although it is very early to predict the price range, it looks as though consumers can expect to pay close to that $1.00 a litre again if numbers for heating/stove oils fail to retreat.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

"The Perfect Storm scenario"

Why prices might even crash...

I know...

Seven days showed a 3.9 cent a litre increase and still a decrease for stove and heating oils. Guess they were close...

It made me sick too, just to look at the pump as I drove by. I didn't need any as I topped it all off the night before...

It's my way of putting the screws to Big Oil before they get to do it to me later in the week when I'm back on "w" for "walk".

But, if the storm in the markets has anything to do with it, we just might see a drop at the pumps before the summer driving season hits and we hit the "expected' spike in prices for the summer.

You shouldn't take for granted everything these professional oil analysts are thinking. You might "get use" to what they say and then you'll have to pay the piper.

And that's the reason for this particular post; because I don't take what they're shoving at me for the truth. Matter of fact, I think there's something that the "investor" is not telling you...

If the refining industry is having such a tough time with their refiner margins and oil is becoming hard to acquire because of price, then it must be obvious to the consumer that they are "purposely" keeping capacity down in order to support the retail price to the consumer, right?

If that is true, and prices have climbed to the point that overall demand is being broken and people start to conserve, then that creates a build in inventories right?

Then the following must be true...

Less demand means less need for refined product which in turn means less refining. That would also mean a drop in demand for the raw crude oil product. We have to note here that crude inventories climbed last week possibly because of part of what we're saying here; that crude simply costs too much to buy by the refiner and inventories were allowed to build in the hope that prices may be impacted...

That means there's evidence of an attempt to support gasoline and heating oil prices by the refiner and Big Oil; a "supported" price...

While the price may indeed be supported, there's not a heck of a lot of return for the investment...

What the markets need to see now, or should I say, the consumer needs to see, is the proof that inventory is building and that demand is being impacted. That may bring down the house of cards that OPEC helped create.

We have already reached a point where Big Oil has hit the Law of Diminishing Returns because of rampant investment in commodities like gasoline and heating oils. consumers here in Newfoundland and Labrador have been hard hit this winter with "above normal" heating oil prices. The elderly and those on fixed incomes as well as pensioners, are at the point where they are buying no more.

They now choose food over heat.

I think they like to call it "energy starvation"...

I think that we're going to start to see investors in distillates lose a lot of money...

One can always live in hope...

Regards,

George

Six days now reporting...

Little change expected in predictions

Six days are now in and the data has only changed slightly. Numbers are still showing a decrease for stove oils and an increase to gasoline pricing Wednesday night in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Heating oils and diesels may go the same way as stove oils but the last couple of adjustments showed heating oils increasing moreso than stove oils. That could translate into little change in the heating oil or diesel price.

Stove oils now show an expected decline of 1.46 cents a litre from yesterdays 1.55. Gasoline is showing a steady 3.7 up on a litre for Wednesday...

As an afterthought, I do an awful lot of thinking while I'm at this...

If 1) it's possible for heating and stove oil product to become so expensive that Big Oil just may ruin its own market for the commodity, and

2) We find that people can't keep themselves warm as a result of heating oils being unaffordable and people want to make the switch to electricity, then

3) Obviously we're going to presure our own sources of energy like electricity as the most beneficial next to wood some might say, then we have another problem developing for the short-term future, and here it is...

To me there may be trouble down the line for our supply of electricity, particularly on the island portion of the province. The question has to be asked about the supply-demand balance of electricity if we find a lot of people are going to switch from oil-based products to electricity.

With those thoughts in mind, here's a few questions for you all to ponder...

1)Do we have the capacity on the island portion to handle the increased demand in electricity if people/consumers switch?

2) Why haven't we heard of Labrador residents being covered in the provincial energy plan, particularly on the coast in areas that face electricity generated by diesel generation?

3) Natural gas is being eyed closely as an alternate source of energy again in the United States as heating oil pricing has skyrocketed. Does our government still have plans to ship out our natural gas to places far away rather than supply our own people with it first?

4) If more people are going to fall back on wood, what is the government going to do as regards to placing some constraints on wood harvesting for "personal consumption"?

5) How about forest replantation/silviculture programs for the long term?

I could go on but, I'll leave it at that for now...

regards,

george

Oil keeps climbing, so does gasoline
Consumers to get dinged at the pumps again this week

News release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 22, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador haven’t seen the end of price increases this regulation period as prices for gasoline are expected to take another hit, that’s from George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Gasoline to increase
“Consumers of gasoline will most likely see another 3.7 cents a litre at the gas pumps this coming Thursday unless there’s something that I don’t know. Five days out of a possible seven show that consumers are going to take it on the chin as they have been doing in other regions of the country as gasoline sets almost daily records in trading,” said Murphy.

Heating and stove oils to decline
“Stove oils show a small decline of 1.5 cents a litre which may be indicating stagnation in the rise of distillates. It may have hit its peak with the end of winter and the continuing bad economic news. Inventories of distillates increased only slightly in last week’s inventory report. Distillate demand along with demand for jet fuels which are used in winter heating oils, are both showing a drop in demand so, these may be the signs that we’ve been waiting for; that prices will soon start to drop for heating commodities. They had better because they’ve become unaffordable to most people now and we’re looking at a record peak for heating and stove oils! Look for prices in heating oils to stall if not decrease.

Reasons for price changes
“Last week saw early interruption in pricing. Supply disruptions, including an attack on a Japanese tanker off the coast of Yemen, lower refiner capacity and draw-downs on both oil and gasoline inventory, continue to impact the price we’re seeing at the pumps again this week. I almost wonder if Big Oil is deliberately trying to cut back on production of refined product in order to control the price. Even though there remains good demand in some aspects of heating oils this past winter for example, refiner capacity remained at a low. That’s also reason that we never saw good builds in gasoline inventory this past winter.

Consumers of heating oil face tough questions
Heating oil consumers have hit a roadblock in pricing. Not only have record prices hit for heating and stove oils, it has also become almost unaffordable for some companies to deliver and some are saying that they can’t deliver anything less than $200 worth of product.
Consumers can not be expected to be held to account for buying contracts if the terms of their contracts have been changed by their company. Some buying arrangements and service/warranty agreements require that consumers have to buy heating and stove oils off that particular company. Consumers are advised to shop around if their company of choice can no longer deliver fuel for less than the stated amount that has been changed by that company.
Government also needs to pursue new retrofit programs that also include assistance in petroleum users switching from petroleum products to electricity or other forms of heating if they so wish. Government has to look at this as a viable alternative as it also is in keeping with helping to lower carbon emissions from houses and other heating/stove oil users.

Budget Day coming
Consumers of petroleum products should pressure their government now in order to pursue tax breaks from petroleum products. Whether it is the pursuit of the removal of taxes off all forms of heat or a break in gasoline taxes, all petroleum products have reached a point where we deserve cuts to taxes applied to petroleum products. Government on both the federal and provincial level has made a huge amount of royalties off oil and we deserve the break.

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Not gonna do it...

Numbers tomorrow on more increases to come at the pumps...

Keep an eye to "Gasandoil" tomorrow as I'll have new numbers on where prices will be going.

So far, with only two days out of a possible seven, as prices interrupted last week, I have about three cents a litre on gasoline.

It's a little different for stove oils and that may be painting the way for heating oils and diesels. A slight drop in stove oil numbers of a rough 1.5 cents on a litre.

Short shrift I know, considering it's still a little chilly during the night.Oh well...Big Oil doesn't have to worry about our seniors not being able to afford the heating oils. I guess that's up to the Avalon Mall as "wandering gangs" of seniors are in competition with our younger folk for the spot at the best vido game.

Shame!

See you all in the A.M...

Rate increase coming from Hydro
Government should absorb any further electricity charges to consumers

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 17, 2008- Consumers in this province should not have to face the heavy financial burden being placed on them with the prospects of higher electricity bills in the coming weeks.

“Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador are facing a double whammy in higher electricity charges at the same time as getting hit with higher heating and stove oil pricing. To be hit with these costs and get hit with higher electricity costs as a result of higher crude oil pricing seems to be a little asinine in the least, knowing that the province is making huge royalties from offshore oil,” said George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Government should take immediate steps to allow Hydro to absorb the higher crude acquisition costs and insulate the Newfoundland and Labrador consumer from these costs. With close to a billion dollars in the treasury from oil royalties this year, it is entirely within the realm of government to do this. The Newfoundland and Labrador consumer owns Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and should be able to get government to call the shot on this latest increase on their behalf. This time, the government can say ‘no’.

“Labrador residents particularly will be hard hit knowing that the Labrador winter is longer and colder. Electricity users along coastal Labrador, where electricity is generated by diesel, will be particularly hard hit. Government should do the right thing and prevent consumers from paying more as a result of something they have the power to help us avoid. The government should also be taking the concrete steps in getting coastal regions of Labrador wired into the provincial energy plan thusly removing them from wild swings in pricing caused by oil-generation of electricity.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Update: Numbers still show interruption possible

Conception Bay South, NL, April 16, 2008- Numbers here still show for interruption on all major fuels tonight. Numbers are still showing that interruption is possible for gasoline as well as stove oils, a major fuel in the distillate group which also includes diesel and heating oils. I would expect those fuels to follow the way of the stove oil numbers if all holds true.

Gasoline still shows an additional 5.2 cents a litre now, while stove oils are now showing 6.4 cents a litre to come into effect tonight. Heating oils and diesels should also closely follow those numbers.

All numbers are now with six days of data instead of yesterdays five days.

Hope all this helps!

regards,

George

Numbers show fuel price interruption is possible
Considerable hikes to all petroleum products on the way for Thursday

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 15, 2008- Consumers in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to be hit with a huge increase to all petroleum products this coming Thursday morning if George Murphy’s numbers are right. The numbers are substantial and could start to prove a bone of contention in this country if they remain high.

How much to expect
“So far this regulation period, we’re looking at five days data that are all showing at least at least a 6.7 cent a litre increase to stove oils and a 5.1 cent a litre increase coming for gasoline. Monday’s market numbers are also up for crude oil which has only enforced those figures. I believe there is a very strong possibility that other commodities like heating oil and diesel will also get to take this hit as they are so closely related to stove oils, being part of the same distillate group of fuels. This morning, crude oil hit a new record of $112.48 a U.S barrel as the U.S dollar continues a slide against other world currencies and that is only enforcing my belief that interruption will happen this coming Thursday morning,” said Murphy.

Consumers could face tough choices
“I don’t think we can predict where this will end now. We have a case where people will start to become energy-starved and will face a bigger problem of affording energy over food. That goes especially for people who are on fixed incomes. What we are witnessing on the markets is an investor’s complete fixation with the money to be made off the petroleum markets and consumers are being faced with some pretty tough choices as a result. If we don’t see a substantial drop-off in spot pricing for heating and stove oils in the next couple of weeks, we will face some serious problems keeping warm next winter and that goes for everyone in the province as some electricity is generated via the burning of petroleum products. This is the time of year when we should be witness to falling heating and stove oil pricing, not increases. It has to break. Prices as high as they are now are not sustainable on anyone’s part! If this trend keeps up we’re looking at the possibility that any heating rebate program just isn’t going to cut it and we’ll have to see government assist people into breaking their dependency on oil-related products.

Reasons for the possible increases
“Oil is up for several reasons. Last week saw considerable draws against U.S inventories, as well as supply disruptions in places such as Nigeria, Mexico and the Middle East. Demand for crude in China is also expected to grow as economic growth is expected to hit 10 per cent for the first quarter of the year.

Canada may to face the tough questions
“I believe that this country is going to have to face the tough question about how we are going to afford to keep ourselves warm if we continue to face high prices for oil-related commodities. If people are no longer going to be able to afford heating oil over food, and farmers begin to invest heavily into energy industry related crops, them we may also face the problem of ever-increasing food pricing. We already are facing mass increases in wheat, corn and other crops on mere speculation. When you start to hit food pricing as other world nations have seen, then we have a serious problem. What is this country prepared to do in the event that we face a continuance of the situation we are witnessing in the world markets now?

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Hate to be the bearer of bad news but...

Newfoundland and Labrador consumers will most likely take the hit from the latest round of increases in oil last week but we'll probably not know for sure until tomorrow.

With the first two days of the regulatory period out of the way, stove oils are showing an allowable of 5.03 upwards. That could be pointing the way for heating oils and diesel as well.

Gasoline shows an allowable increase of 3.88 cents and that falls within the 3/10ths of a cent margin for error I use putting the number slightly over the four cents needed for interruption of fuel prices...

I'll know more by Tuesday afternoon so, keep an eye for a posted release and your ears to the media...

Sometimes it just sucks to be on the receiving end of oil doesn't it?

Regards,

George

Latest EIA survey confirms our thinking

Petroleum stocks down on three fronts this week...

The latest report from the Energy Information Administration today seems to confirm our worst fears; that there is a steady decline in inventories of crude and distillate and that we can expect pricing here in Newfoundland and Labrador to remain around the $1.22 to $1.37 range for the better part of the summer.

As a matter of fact, my numbers are also pointing at the figure of $1.30 at summertime peak this coming first week of July before things moderate. That doesn't include outside factors like Hurricane Syndrome.

Numbers in the report are all down again this week while, refiner capacity is at a near historic low of 83 per cent, a level I haven't seen since I started predicting pricing movements.

See the report from the EIA on last weeks oil inventories here:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

Here's the kicker though...

In the report, we also see that gasoline demand is also projected to drop as recession factors and consumer fears kick in. Gasoline demand has been dropping so much so, that it is a mere 3/10ths of a percentage point over last years numbers for the same timeframe.

Distillate demand along with jet fuel usage has also remained flat for the past week compared to last years numbers so, consumers can expect to see prices for heating and stove oils start to drop from here on in.

They better start soon!

If pricing fails to fall now rather than later, there is no doubt that consumers again will be paying new records for heating and stove oils next year possibly making heating oils even more unaffordable than it already is now.

See the highlights report here:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/pdf/highlite.pdf

In the meantime, don't forget to hit the pumps on the way home tonight. My numbers now show an expected 3.1 cents a litre at the pumps tonight.

You just might want to pass the word along...

Still no relief on the heating front
Heavy commodity investment still forcing prices upwards

News release

Conception Bay South, NL, April 08, 2008- Market conditions are still putting upwards pressure on petroleum commodities and that means ‘prices up’ for gasoline along with stove oils this week, that’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Continued heavy investment into commodities like heating, stove oils and gasoline is putting upwards pressure on those petroleum products as a hedge against the U.S dollar. We’re also dealing with a huge drop in refiner capacity as refiners turn their attentions towards gasoline as we get out of the winter heating season. All this means that consumers here in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador will likely see increases to all petroleum pricing again this week.

What consumers can expect
“All numbers are based on twelve days data out of a possible fourteen that is used to set pricing. It appears that gasoline will see the bigger increase. Numbers there show a possible 2.8 cent a litre hike at the pumps while stove oils will only see a 3/10ths of a cent hike in price. The stove oil number may be a sign that we’re near the peak in pricing for heating oils as well as investors and refiners turn their attention to gasoline for the run-up to the summer driving season. The actual that may occur with heating and stove oils could be higher with the other days of data unavailable yet, although I don’t think those numbers will be significant to radically change things at this point.

Warning for next winter
While pricing for heating and stove oils are both expected to back off from records in short order, those same numbers have to begin to show a substantive drop between now and the fall if we are to avoid any problems with consumers keeping themselves warm next winter. Right now, heating and stove oil pricing is a record 28 cents a litre higher than last year while gasoline is roughly 7 cents a litre higher for the same timeframe. I would advise government now rather than later, to get rebate and retrofit programs ready to catch those who will need it, and that could be everybody next year if pricing does not fall back to more affordable levels between now and the fall. A rebate of $300 to consumers just will not cut it next time if pricing does not decline.

Time for pressure on the federal government
While the provincial government came through with a rebate program this year, the federal government got off scott-free in aid to consumers of heating products. Why? It is now time for both governments to get together and remove all the taxation components on all forms of heat in this country. Both levels of government are making astronomical amounts of revenue on oil royalties and that should be returned to the Canadian consumer. The pressures put on all related heating commodities is complicated that much more by a tax on a necessity in this country and so far, that pricing outlook may be a bleak one for heating, stove oils and natural gas users next winter. The simple removal of all forms of taxation on all forms of heat would go a long way to providing some relief to consumers.

Early summer gasoline outlook
Market investors and refiners have turned their attention to gasoline as the heating oil season comes to an end. Continued investment in commodities ahead of a dropping U.S dollar, may be enough to keep the pressure up on pricing but our models are still showing a “market reluctance” to drive up pricing to consumers. Recession fears are absorbing some of the upwards pressures right now and, I don’t believe that consumers are getting hit with as big of increases as they could possibly be because of that. Bad economic news has resulted in a fear in the markets that energy could be hit sooner than other commodities like foodstuffs. Bearing that thought in mind, it appears that while we may experience some increases heading into the summer, they will not be as great as the $1.50 a litre predicted by some industry analysts out there. Our model still shows a minimum to maximum possible price of $1.22 to $1.37 at the summer peak in July and, even those numbers show the volatility of the markets. Just the difference between last year and this years spot petroleum numbers shows a $1.30 a litre at the pumps is “attainable” at this point.

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com