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Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, September 21, 2017


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes for Newfoundland and Labrador as well as New Brunswick:



*Heating/stove oils show an increase of one cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel shows an increase of 8/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of 6.2 cents a litre.



As predicted a few weeks back in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, I estimated at the time that it would take about two to three weeks before we see the markets come back into some form of normalcy. With the expected decrease, it looks like the recovery is complete with the exception of a penny in the difference between prices before and after Harvey’s market impact.



I’ll be watching the latest in U.S inventory reports due to be released tomorrow around noon Newfoundland time as these numbers will be a good indicator for refinery capacity increases along with gasoline inventories. While there was a considerable draw in gasoline inventories last week, I’m expecting still to see a draw from the side-effects from Hurricane Irma, which only partly affected U.S inventories from last week.



Either way, the recovery is just about complete, and if today’s market is any indication, there is a penny down showing for gasoline ahead of next week!



That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, September 12, 2017


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes, along with a hint on what’s to come next week:



*Heating/stove oil to drop by 8/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel to drop by 1.1 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to drop by 7.2 cents a litre.



Hurricane Harvey’s effects on the market are beginning to settle down and we’re getting a good read on the return of refining capacity in the Gulf of Mexico.



As of this morning, only six percent of capacity remains offline due to longer than anticipated re-start.



Tomorrow’s inventory data may show exactly what happened to gasoline supplies as regards to both Harvey and Irma as gasoline saw a “panic buy” spree ahead of the storms. While last week’s draw-down of inventory saw short of four million barrels down, the fact that refinery capacity country-wide in the U.S was only at 79.9 percent.



With capacity showing a huge drop, gasoline should have been down substantially in inventory, but it wasn’t. That’s probably part reason why the markets in New York saw an increase of just 13 cents a litre converted to Canadian values.



A picture is already being formed on what we can expect next week. So far, spot prices for gasoline are down a rough five cents a litre in the first day of the seven day session, so I’m advising consumers to continue to conserve to ride out the tail end of this extraordinary event on the markets.



I’m guessing that we will most likely be back to where prices were before last week’s massive increase at the pumps...as predicted.



Regards,



For more information, contact:



George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Gasoline still dropping in Harvey's aftermath

Hi to all,

Just a quick update on what I'm seeing in the markets since yesterday's rattle at the pumps.

Just crunched the data so far and the downward trend has started, albeit I'm keeping an eye to Hurricane Irma's impact. Right now, there is panic buying ahead of the storm's landfall in Florida in the next day or so. It hasn't impacted the gas markets yet, but that is a possibility that may not get picked up until the next release of inventory data on Wednesday from the U.S Energy Information Administration.

So far, gasoline shows a drop of 4.5 cents a litre at the pumps, but like I say, that's just two days data. You need all seven days data to call the final shot on what we can expect, but there is enough downward movement to say that I believe the numbers will be down as predicted.

In the meantime, in the coming days, I will pen my thoughts here on what I feel our country really needs to do to protect us all from spikes like this, so, stay tuned.

Stay in touch, and I will too!

Regards,

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil 

Tuesday, September 05, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, September 7, 2017


Hi to all,

Sorry for not keeping everyone up to date as I wished last week, and thanks to those who sent their condolences or visited us at the untimely passing of my Mother. I will remember your kindness a long time!



All the data is now in for this week and is still pretty close to what I initially had yesterday. Here’s the new projections for this week:



*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 4.2 cents a litre.

*Diesel shows an added 4.5 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an added 14.1 cents a litre.



A couple of things here.



First off, gasoline is starting to show a retreat as of today. The markets show for day one of the next pricing session gas dropping by 2.5 cents a litre, but there’s still six days to go, so I fully expect to see further drops as refineries start to re-enter production from Hurricane Harvey’s after-effects.



Secondly, all this is a repeat of what happened during the Katrina and Rita events of 2005. The failure of government to ensure the security of supply to the Canadian economy in ensuring adequate inventory keeping of refined product that meets our needs in an emergency, along with a moratorium on refinery closures are two important aspects. The third thing the government of Canada needs to do is re-visit the Competition Act to ensure companies cannot share supply between each other that has cost in refinery capacity, let alone jobs.



Lastly, while other centres like Ottawa increased in prices by 31 cents a litre and Toronto by 23 cents in a competitive market, the government needs to remind companies that we have the Emergencies Act that I think can be used to ensure consumers do not get gouged at a time that consumers would deem to be a crisis, in this case where prices went far out of line from what was the actual.



We cannot avoid the actualities of the markets, but fortunately I think, we have a mechanism in place to protect consumers somewhat when that emergency comes about.



That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Sunday, August 27, 2017

Hurricane Harvey Update #1


Update #1

Hi to all,

Just an update on Hurricane Harvey and the effect it could have on gasoline and heating oil prices this week!

No doubt, you have all heard of the devastation being wrought in Texas at this hour and it's important to keep all those going through this storm on your mind tonight and for the next few days.

I am watching the markets at the moment to see how this storm will play out.

So far, as of Friday, gasoline prices are up about two cents a litre for Thursday, but markets are trading upwards another ten cents a US gallon at this hour with the potential for refinery disruptions being very strong. Electricity is out in a lot of the major refining areas of Texas at this hour and it is expected that a lot of refineries will be put out of commission for a few days while the waters recede.

Both oil imports and exports through the major Texas shipping channels are shut down. Several refineries are also offline.

While the storm made landfall several hundred miles from where Katrina and Rita made landfall in 2005, that doesn't discount the fact that upwards of five million barrels of processing in the Gulf of Mexico area may be taken out simply by the huge amount of water.

I don’t expect markets to be trading too heavy this time around as this hurricane has landed further west in the Gulf of Mexico, but the storm is also subject to swing around and land again closer to the Louisiana coast and eastern Texas which would put it closer to more refinery infrastructure that was affected during Katrina and Rita in 2005.

Gasoline will be taking a hit this week. It just remains to be seen, especially after Monday and Tuesday trading, exactly how much. I'll keep everyone up to date on the numbers as the days go by, but it's easy to say here to expect increases across the board to all fuels this week.

Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter@GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, August 24, 2017


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:



*Heating/stove oils show a drop of two cents a litre.

*Diesel shows a drop of 1.9 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of 6/10ths of a cent a litre.



Gasoline, Distillate fuels continue lower



“We may be starting to formulate a picture for heating oil prices for this winter as the focus comes off gasoline prices from this past summer, and consumers hopefully will see those benefits if the down trend continues”. That news from George Murphy, oil analyst with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.



Gasoline and distillate prices again continued to drop as lower oil and refined product prices showed a retreat after Libyan crude again was set for export. A shutdown of Libyan exports on Thursday helped to increase Brent prices, but turned lower as agreement was said to re-open ports on Monday.



“It wasn’t so much as a surprise to see Libyan exports shut in once again, but there was an obvious peaceful resolution put in place that played into the markets over a very quick period”. Murphy said. “Again, prices started to show a downwards retreat especially for refined distillates.



“It’s the right time of year to show a drop in distillates leading into the fall and winter heating seasons as this is a traditional time of year we see that run-up in prices ahead of the demand season. To see a drop this time of year may reflect what speculators may be thinking: that there’s not a lot to be gained in the markets for distillates again this year. While spot prices are still ten cents a litre higher that what they were for the same timeframe last year, a downward trend may be signalling further drops to come in prices”.



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For more information, contact;



George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, August 08, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, August 10, 2017


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:



*Heating/stove oils will increase by 7/10ths of a  cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel shows an increase of 9/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Gasoline shows an increase of 1.2 cents a litre



Continued demand increase adds up to an increase in gasoline prices



If there was any hope for speculators to make a dollar in the gasoline markets, that time is quickly slipping away with the end of summer. This week’s increase in prices may be the last week for that as prices are set to increase to consumers by just over a penny. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.



“Last week showed just the second week in a row this summer where demand was shown to be increasing during the summer months. It been remarkable to see demand during the summer as low as what it has been in a year where the US economy has been booming.” Murphy said. ”Speculators are enjoying a ‘last gasp’ as the summer driving season comes to a close”.



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For more information, contact:



George Murphy