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Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Price changes for Thursday, February 15, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 5.3 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel shows a drop of 5.6 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of 5.1 cents a litre.

Market highlights

U.S domestic output hits ten million a day

One week later than predicted, U.S domestic oil production hit 10.251 million barrels a day, showing a record weekly increase to break the 10 million barrier in good fashion.

     The news was enough to spark a sell-off of oil with speculators now looking at growing production amidst cuts that were made to help support prices. Worries also centered on the fact that U.S domestic producers can come into the markets relatively quickly when the market conditions and price are right.

      U.S rig counts have also increased as small producers get back in.

U.S EIA report shows a build in refined products

Last Wednesday’s Energy Information Administration report on inventories also was front and center in this week’s slide in oil and refined prices as all major inventory groups showed robust growth as refiner capacity climbed back up to 92.5 per cent capacity.

     Gasoline inventories added 3.4 million barrels, while distillate also climbed by 3.9 million barrels, a possible signal of weakening demand as the markets concentrated on the March buying contract.

Next week’s outlook

While numbers are now showing just about another cent down for all fuels for next week, all is really going to count on the next U.S Energy Information Administration report to confirm further breaks to consumers for next week.

     Any build in crude, gasoline or distillate this time around may force oil prices south of present levels and possibly signal further growth into a possible glut of oil south of the border.

     Watch the Baker Hughes rig count that comes out on Friday as well that may still signal the entry of smaller producers into the U.S shale markets.

That’s it for this week!


George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil    

Tuesday, February 06, 2018

Price changes for Thursday, February 8th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 3.4 cents a litre.

*Diesel shows a drop of 2 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of 1.9 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Market speculators focus of U.S domestic output

The retreat in oil price this week may be blamed by some on the fall of the stock market yesterday, but that’s not necessarily the case...

      Stocks recovered the next day in the market correction, but oil still showed a retreat in today’s trading with strong indications that traders were focused more on the growth in U.S domestic output, due to hit ten million barrels a day either this week, or next.

      The mythological number needs just 80,000 barrels to hit the mark.

      That number will probably be achieved in short order with the addition of another seven rigs in the overall U.S rig count on Friday that shows a steady growth of smaller producers getting in while oil prices are up.

       The next few months are going to be interesting to watch as oil prices try to strike a new balance of new, smaller shale producers trying to get a fair price against the former OPEC super oil power in the markets. If oil goes low, OPEC loses as well as smaller producers and oil instability will result.

       Prices will be in flux until then with more risk to the downside as chances of outside factors influencing OPEC pricing decisions become moot with additional U.S capacity.

Market focuses away from heating/stove oils

With February comes the March buying contract and thoughts of traders switch from heating, stove oils and other distillates like Diesel to the promise of  warmer spring weather and strength in demand for Gasoline.

     Often this time of year, what becomes more noticeable in the price changes is the fact that distillates are dropping more this week than Gasoline, a sure sign that relief from winter is on the way if not because of anything else but the promise of spring.

     While numbers there are dropping, note some support for gasoline as the drop this week shows some sign of “strength” as the drop is not so prevalent.

That’s it for this week!


George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Price changes for Thursday, February 1st, 2018

Hi to all,
Here's what I have for price changes for this Thursday, February 1st:
*Heating/stove oils show an increase of 8/10ths of a cent.
*Diesel shows an increase of 1.2 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of 1.2 cents a litre as well.
Market highlight
Oil hits a wall?
While oil prices have being showing a steady rise as of late with people like myself waiting for U.S domestic production to respond, strong signs are emerging that we might be hitting the wall on further increases to oil prices.
     Cracks started appearing this week in speculators upwards trading of oil prices that may have been partly influenced by a huge growth in domestic production last week that, in itself, may have led to a decline in prices the past two days of market trading.
With oil prices butting heads with $70 US a barrel oil, it was long expected that U.S domestic production would soon ramp up on prices alone and help add a buttress to rising prices.
     Last week may have been the turning point.
     With U.S domestic set to hit 10 million barrels a day as soon as this week, speculators are starting to pull back on bets for rising oil and the past two days have shown oil retreating back to $68 US on "fears" that U.S domestic is beginning to take off.
     While it may be of no benefit this week for consumers here, the real benefits will be garnered as soon as next week if inventory reports confirm further increases to U.S domestic production figures tomorrow.

I'll keep it at that for this week!


Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Price changes for Thursday, January 25th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this week's price changes:

*Heating and stove oils to drop by 8/10ths of a cent a litre.
*Diesel to drop by 1.1 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline to increase by 1.6 cents a litre.

Market highlights

OPEC meetings in Oman
News out of Oman this evening that must put a smile on the faces of anyone dealing in Middle East commodities as OPEC members are agreeable to continuing their production cuts well past 2018.
     The cuts by OPEC producers were supposed to expire in 2018, but members are now in agreement that "much more needs to be done" to help bring the oil markets back to balance, and that their cuts seem to be bringing some redress to that end.

API report shows a build
The American Petroleum Institute reported a build in inventories of both oil and gasoline products after today's market close, but the real news will probably come in tomorrow's US EIA inventory report noon Wednesday.
      The API reported a build of 4.7 million barrels, while gasoline showed a build of 4.1 million barrels.
      The inventory report was enough to temper gains in oil prices in aftermarket trading.

That's it for this week!


George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Price changes for January 18, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils show a half cent a litre increase.

*Diesel fuel shows an increase of 7/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of 2.3 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Demand for world oil rising?

Some hints in the news this week may bring some a little hope for rising oil prices, but again it’s the potential influence of U.S domestic shale production that keeps things a little tempered.

            News reports out of China are implying a growing demand again as their economy ramps up, but it’s their neighbor to the south, India, that seems to be drawing more attention as the Asian country seems to be importing more oil that usual to meet its growing oil refining sector.

            Indian imports of oil have reportedly hit close to 4.8 million barrels a day into a country that only a few short years ago, was distantly thought of as a potential reason for increasing world demand and a still very young but growing economy.

U.S rig count rises again

The rig count south of the border is starting to show more signs of growth in what may be the first real sign of a response to rising world oil prices.

            The Baker Hughes rig count this past Friday saw an additional fifteen rigs go back to work with ten of those specifically searching for oil. The other five pursued natural gas, but no doubt would have oil as a residual to their production.

           With oil prices hitting $70 US for Brent this week and $64 US for West Texas Intermediate, there’s plenty of room for speculation.

            But the rig count may itself be the reason why we may yet see a more cautious market approach to the $70 US a barrel level. A second week of robust rig count growth may be enough to signal a retreat after this Friday as it could be seen as a sign of growing U.S output and a hedge against OPEC production cuts.

That’s it for this week!


George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, December 28th, 2017

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes. Due to the fact that there was no published data for today’s trading, I have made a best “guesstimate” that is probably low, based on the performance of oil today.

*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 1.1 cents a litre.

*Diesel shows an increase of 1.5 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of 3.4 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Libyan disruption bites markets today

Oil showed a steady increase to day as an important Libyan pipeline went up in flames taking close to 100,000 barrels of exports offline in a tightening oil market. Brent crude rose almost $1.20 US a barrel on the news.

Gasoline inventories up, but not a lot

Gasoline inventories showed another increase in inventory levels, but with rising capacity of close on 94%, it didn’t rise as compared to the two weeks previous. That signalled an increase in demand ahead of the important Christmas travel season. Demand was shown to have increased as gasoline only increased in inventories by 1.7 million barrels compared to the previous weeks’ 5.4 million barrel build.

That’s it for this week!


George Murphy

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, December 21st, 2017

Hi to all,
Here's what I have for price changes for this Thursday:
*Heating/stove oils show an increase of 2/10ths of a cent a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows down a half cent, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 1.7 cents a litre.
Merry Christmas to us, wa?...
Market highlights
Inventories increase again
U.S EIA inventories of gasoline increased again last week as gasoline demand remained a little weak ahead of the Christmas travel season and refiner capacity remained high.
Gasoline inventories showed a gain of 5.7 million barrels against a draw of 5.1 million barrels of crude, but refiner capacity remained high at 93.4 percentage points.
Distillates dropped in 1.4 million barrels as winter demand remains a factor in support of heating and stove oil prices.
Canadian dollar slips
The Canadian dollar slipped against it's chief competitor over the past week as the U.S Greenback showed some strength over the last week and a half, losing close on a penny against the U.S buck.
I'll leave it at that for this week. I'll still be here over Christmas as long as the trading continues. Numbers may be off slightly with the markets closed for so many days, but we'll try to be as accurate as possible for the trip home.
Be safe out there! Enjoy your time with family and leave the keys if you plan on "celebrating" the Epiphany!
George and family
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil