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Tuesday, July 25, 2017

No major changes with all the market confusion out there...


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:



*Heating and stove oils show no change in price.

*Diesel fuel shows an increase of just 4/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of 3/10ths of a cent.



Gasoline price to remain relatively stable this week



“Gasoline prices will remain relatively steady this week with numbers showing just a 3/10ths of a cent a litre increase in the regulated maximum price at the pumps”. That news from George Murphy, consumer advocate and energy market-watcher. “The numbers are falling into my margin for error here, so there may be nothing serious happening this week that will cost us anything significant.”



While markets are in turmoil, nobody seems to have a handle on what constitutes market-changing news anymore, so, at least to me, no one is willing to take the risks in the energy markets until there’s some more stability.” Murphy said.



“OPEC members met again this past week, but in a surprise series of moves and who you talk to, everyone is on the same page when it comes to cuts, then everyone is not on the same page. While Nigeria, for example, have agreed to a production cut that limits them to a daily production of 1.8 million barrels a day, they are only pumping at 1.6 million barrels. Then there’s Iraq. While they’ve agreed to limit production under the agreed production cut arrangement, they’ve come out today announcing they will hit five million barrels a day by the end of this year. Presently, they produce almost 4.5 million barrels a day”.



Confusing as it sounds, the news is reflecting a market reality to consumers that no one knows which way prices should head under these conditions, and while demand may be up, the prospects for oil breaking into newer highs for the year seem distant.



“Then we have news from the US that shows that the US may set a new production record of ten million barrels a day domestic production by the end of this year that would bring more oil into the markets. That’s telling me that regardless of the news out of OPEC, there’s a bigger player out there that simply didn’t have the influence it now has ten years ago, and consumers will benefit from the confusion for the time-being”.



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For more information, contact:



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, July 20, 2017


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:



*Heating/stove oils show an increase of a half penny a litre.

*Diesel fuel shows an increase of 8/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of a penny at the pumps.



Strength of a demand increase reflected at the pumps this week



“Consumers will again see an up-tick in prices at the pumps this week but, as in previous weeks, it’s not going to be a shocker as gasoline prices are only expected to rise a penny a litre”. That’s from George Murphy, oil researcher.



“Modest increases in demand for gasoline have been observed over the past few weeks, and while not a threat to current prices at the pump ,any up-tick further in demand may help to increase prices again exponentially. I’m still trying to find why demand has not reached the same numbers it has last year, and that’s being reflected in the price we’re paying. You see a slight increase in demand and the price goes up, but so also does the Canadian dollar saving us a few pennies.



“If anything, I’m noticing an early entry by some into the distillate markets, which is also a strong signal that the summertime gasoline market is pretty much a write-off. With September buying contracts already out, it’s a safe bet to say that summer prices will pretty much stay around the same level we’re all looking at now”.



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For more information, contact:



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, July 13, 2017

Hi to all,

Short and sweet this week as I'm heading straight to the fire-pit!

Consider it my summer vacation three hours at a time...lol

But, before I do, I'll leave you with the week's price changes and a few tidbits from the markets. Here's what I have:

*Heating, stove oil and Diesel all show a drop of 1.1 cents a litre.
*Gasoline shows no changes this week.

So, here's one market highlight I will leave you as the kids are calling...I'll comment on it next week, but it may be apparent what might be about to transpire. I'm thinking all OPEC members will start in too...

Surprise, surprise, but OPEC's leading producer and leader when it came to leading other members into the November 2016 production cut scheme to bolster oil prices, has been nailed with the news that it broke ranks with its fellow members by over-producing on it's own imposed production quota!

Note the party balloons and cake...

There was no surprise here as Saudi Arabia, the leader of the pack in the cuts department, simply couldn't resist the fact that on occasion, things like this will happen. The Saudi's produced 10.07 million barrels a day last month, about 200 thousand more than its quota.

Now, with Libya and Nigerian production also on the rebound, ask yourself how long it will be before the other members of OPEC also break ranks...

Have a good week!

Regards,

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Monday, July 03, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, July 6, 2017


Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes, and all a little early as a result of markets being closed tomorrow as a result of the U.S Independence Day holiday:

*Heating and stove oil show an increase of 2.7 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an added 3.1 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 2.7 cents a litre at the pumps.

Consumers to see an increase at the pumps for the first time in weeks

The numbers are in early as a result of the US markets being closed tomorrow as a result of the U.S Independence Day holiday, but even the holiday south of the border isn’t going to go the trend of the last few weeks with price drops.

On the contrary...

“It’s almost strange to see it after the last couple of weeks drops at the pumps, but consumers will see an increase at the pumps this week as gasoline demand starts to match refinery output”. That news from George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices. “Last week saw a very slight draw on gasoline inventories immediately ahead of the U.S holiday, and along with rising oil, refined commodity prices also increased.”

“There are signs of support for oil prices out there as both the U.S rig count was down for the first time in twenty four weeks, and signs from the U.S Energy Information Administration that domestic output last week dropped 100,000 barrels a day, a sharp drop that comes as a sign that small producers in the shale fields may be more susceptible to lower prices than what was first thought. This may have led to ‘second thoughts’ to further investment in these projects, and that’s where we started to see a contraction in oil output. Some speculators placed a ‘break even’ point at $35 U.S, but investors started pulling out well before $45 US, showing a weak bottom remains for shale resources and that the ‘break even ‘ point is much higher. Long term projects have a distinct advantage against smaller projects.

“In spite of the news from OPEC member Libya of rising production and exports from the war-torn country’s return to the markets, oil prices still saw some support as a result of smaller shale simply not going to be able to attract the investment because of high risk and low oil prices. It seems that OPEC cuts may read in the markets again until oil rises to the point where small shale production can attract investment again. The market pendulum has again swung in favour of OPEC and other non-OPEC producers in it for the long term.

“On average, Brent and WTI have increased the past week by $3 US a barrel with refined commodities showing strength based on the increase to oil prices. It was only ‘natural’ to see gasoline demand start to rise before the holiday in the U.S and we can only hope that we can see the trend of low prices return for the rest of the summer”.

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For more information, contact:

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, June 29, 2017


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:



*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.1 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel shows a drop of 1.5 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows no change this week.



Markets steady. Waiting for Wednesday inventory data



“Consumers will not see any change to gasoline prices this week as the markets await inventory data from the U.S Energy Information Administration for any sign of rising or falling demand”. That word comes from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices. ”However, being the non-demand season for distillates like heating, stove oil and diesel, we’ll see some further retreat in prices”.



“The markets are searching for any reason for optimism amongst signs that demand still hasn’t shown any appreciable growth in demand for gasoline, and that sentiment continues as some are expressing ongoing concerns over the world glut of oil. There’s lots to go around.



“In what must be a surprise to most, the US EIA has reported three weeks of gasoline inventory building in the middle of the demand season for that fuel, and smack in one of the world’s most bustling economies, and with the final mystery of why demand hasn’t risen its head this summer season. At least not yet.



“Even the American Petroleum Institute earlier this evening found another build in both crude and gasoline inventories which could spell trouble for speculators in the gasoline markets for the rest of the summer. With demand faultering and a forty five day delivery time from oil patch to the consumer, time is fast running out for them. July is coming and it’s ‘mid-August’ on the buying markets in what could be a wrote-off season.



“Looks like what you see is what you’ll get for the rest of the summer season, barring any unforeseen or geo-political changes. It could be a much cheaper summer traveling season than what we’ve been used to”.



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For more information, contact;



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, June 22, 2017


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:



*Heating and stove oils to drop a penny.

*Diesel fuel to drop by 1.3 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to drop three cents a litre.



Oil and refined prices continue lower. Consumers to benefit



“Oil prices and refined commodity prices continue their retreat and consumers again will see the benefit”. That’s according to George Murphy, researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.



“ The US Energy Information Administration’s weekly data last week showed a continued build in gasoline inventories that still shows refiners are producing more than what was needed in the face of expected demand that simply isn’t there---yet”, Murphy said.



“But we’re possibly coming to an end as small producers start to look at their break-even points as oil prices sink lower, so this next few weeks are going to be a huge test for everyone in the oil business. While further drops in prices are possible, they may be piece-meal compared to the last few weeks drops we’ve become accustomed to”.



News from OPEC also shows more oil than was expected coming out of Libya with that country producing more than 900 thousand barrels a day, rather than the expected 300 thousand a day in the previous month. While that may seem for some to be a small number, it throws a wrench into OPEC’s self-imposed cut of 1.2 million barrel a day that excluded both Libya and Nigeria due to damaged infrastructure from civil unrest.



“While ‘under a dollar’ a litre is still possible, we’d already be there except for the fact that there is still almost 9.8 cents a litre in extra taxes that we’re dealing with versus the same timeframe when we saw gas under a buck a litre”.



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For more information, contact:



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, June 15, 2017


Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this week's price changes:

          *Heating and stove oils to drop by 2.5 cents a litre.
          *Diesel fuel to drop by 2.6 cents a litre, and...
          *Gasoline to drop by FOUR cents a litre.

Market highlights

OPEC breaks its own production freeze
The fact that Libya and Nigeria were exempted from the OPEC cuts agreement and it's extension a month ago was telling on what was thought to be two countries in a rough position as far as stability goes, and they are. However, both Libya and Nigerian production has suddenly come back, rather unexpectedly to OPEC I may add, to throw further doubt into the world oil glut situation.
     Both Libya and Nigeria combined to push overall OPEC production up by another 330,000 barrels a day during May month.
     That has helped to moderate prices over the last week, and acquisition costs of oil have come down as well to reflect the benefits to consumers.

Gasoline demand weaker than usual?
Gasoline inventories, according to the US Energy Information last week, climbed instead of falling during one of the driving season's busiest times for speculators.
     Weaker refinery capacity also showed the markets that with refinery production dropping, refiners were still able to add gasoline to the overall inventory, casting further doubt on what demand there will be for product heading into the depths of summer.
     As previously forecast here, there's still some pressure to the downside for gasoline, but I'm keeping an eye to the refiner capacity number to see if refiners throttle back on output in a move to support prices for the next little while.
     Already a sign that there may be trouble for the speculator out there if that indeed happens!

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil