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Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Price changes for Thursday, April 26th, 2018


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils to increase by 2.1 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by 2.2 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to increase by 3.8 cents a litre.



Market Highlights

Middle East tensions continue to weigh...

Middle East tensions continued to make an impact on the markets as speculators weighed the latest series of rocket attacks from Yemeni rebels against the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyahd and the southern reaches of Saudi Arabia.

Canadian dollar loses ground...

The Canadian dollar lost almost two cents against the U.S greenback over the last week that has helped increase prices to consumers in Canada. Almost two cents a litre of the forecasted increase in the price of refined commodities can be attributed to a weak Canadian dollar.

Resolution: Iran nuclear deal in the works?...

Oil prices showed some retreat today as the President of France met with the U.S President, with Trump saying that they may be close on a deal on the Iran nuclear deal, avoiding the possibility of further sanctions that may have limited Iranian exports and production.

      Oil prices, already increased with speculation of sanctions, would have climbed significantly higher had further sanctions been put in place.

OPEC strategy of production cuts taking hold?

Market speculators are of the sense that OPEC cuts to production by member and non-member nations has taken a huge bite out of world over-supply, with the International Energy Agency saying that a record high compliance rate amongst key producers had all but erased the glut in world supplies of crude.



That’s it for this week’s update!



Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil  

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Price changes for Thursday, April 19, 2018

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this week's price changes:

*Heating and stove oil shows an increase of 2.7 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an added 3.1 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of three cents a litre.

Market highlights
All Syria, all the time...
Donald Trump put out the warnings and the markets responded last week as Middle East violence erupted into a response to Syria's gas attack on the people of Douma.
Trump formed an alliance with Britain and France and an attack on Syrian facilities was launched late of Friday night in response to the Assad led gas attack.
     The fact that there would be a response led to wild speculation on the markets that could possibly lead to a disruption in Middle East supplies of crude oil. Spot prices for refined product also increased over the past couple of weeks with the resulting increase to consumers that we're seeing this week.
     For how long will these numbers be up no one truly knows at this point, but there has been some retreat in the numbers late in yesterday and today's session, so we'll just have to keep the fingers crossed. Most likely, we'll see that relief to heating and stove oil prices the most next week.

That's it for this week!

Don't forget to share this!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Price changes for Thursday, April 12th, 2018


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for price changes for this week:



*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.6 cents a litre.

*Both Diesel and Gasoline show a drop of 1.9 cents a litre.



Market highlights



Trump a nightmare for the oil markets

Besides trying to run a country, the U.S president has been throwing turmoil in the markets, threatening tariffs at every turn. Latest on the list is China, with Trump arguing his case that they have an imbalance with the Asian monster.

      Not good for the oil markets however, as anticipated demand would show that more oil would be needed for a burgeoning economy that has access to the U.S market. The threat of tariffs saw oil fall and then steady through the week, but a possible ease of the tariff argument later in the session helped support oil prices. Those hopes were part reason why Brent prices hit $71 U.S in trading today.

      

Word on U.S inventories

Oil inventories from the U.S Energy Information Administration proved to be bullish as the department reported a draw on oil inventories of 4.6 million barrels.

            Gasoline also showed a draw of 1.1 million barrels against a refiner capacity of 93 percent.

            U.S domestic production increased by 27,000 barrels a day to show the U.S producing 10.46 million barrels a day.

            But with that number comes the question why domestic output has not increased appreciably to the corresponding rise in oil prices. It could be caution, but a lacklustre performance in the face of a rise in oil is also helping to support oil prices as well.

           If there’s going to be a measured response, it may happen this week as the U.S rig count increased by 11 rigs this week, which may be enough to temper oil prices should their output come online.



Final word...

Still watching the situation in the Middle East, particularly as it comes from Syria and the Russian/U.S back and forth on the issue. Iran and Saudi Arabia are also still in focus as the war in Yemen has also been making headlines this week.

            There’s lots happening out there, and I’m trying to keep an eye to all of it!



That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, April 03, 2018

Price changes for Thursday, April 5th, 2018

Hi to all,
Here's what I have for price changes for this week:

*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 5/10ths of a cent per litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an added 3/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 1/10th of a cent a litre.

Keep in mind that I go by a 3/10ths of a cent margin for error.

I think most here will remember last week with its increase, but I did notice a trend where prices showed they would steady out for the next week or so, and if there were to be any retreat in prices, they would show on the tail end of this week's measurement.
Such is the case where I do have a slight decline predicted for next week, for gasoline at least, as prices have dropped back for refined commodities by about 1.5 cents.
Heating, stove oils and Diesel fuel all show a drop of 1 to 1.5 cents leading into next week's price changes. Keep in mind that anything can happen in the next week however, so don't put your money on it until I get a couple of more days data!

That's it for next week!

Regards,

George

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Price changes for Thursday, March 29, 2018


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:



*Heating/stove oils to increase by 4.1 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by three cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to increase by 3.5 cents a litre.



Market highlights



Bolton appointment continues to fan the oil markets

     John Bolton seems to be a nice enough fella...

     At least to Donald Trump.

     He’s now a member of the Trump cabinet and was a key adversary of the Iran nuclear deal reached between Obama and six other nations sitting around the U.N security council, and Germany. The deal signed a few years back saw Iran increase its oil exports in return for promising to shut down it’s nuclear aspirations.

     Markets are still trading oil higher as speculators see the possibilities of another extended Middle East conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a problem that was given fuel with Crown Prince Bin Salman meeting with Trump earlier this week.



Budget 2018

     The provincial budget is in and there’s really no surprises in it.

     While the province held back on the remaining four cents a litre in gas taxes that first came in back in Budget 2016, they did commit to dropping the gas tax immediately upon implementation of a new carbon tax due to hit the people of the province in January of 2019.

      Further, the province has set the budget based on $63 US a barrel.

      With eleven opinions of where oil will be, the government settled on those opinions.

      I personally wouldn’t have gone beyond $55 US. We’ve been here before and the markets are certainly volatile with U.S domestic production set to break the eleven million barrel a day mark in a couple of months. True, that geo-politics may reign supreme in the news right now, but anything is possible and can’t be discounted.



That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Saudi Arabia, Trump and Iran...and yes, your weekly price changes!


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:



*Heating and stove oil to increase by 2.3 cents a litre.

Diesel fuel to increase by 2.4 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to increase by three cents a litre.



Market highlights



Saudi Arabia pokes the Middle East bear...

Saudi Arabia joined in on Trump’s refrain in calling the Iran nuclear deal into question late yesterday as the Middle East rhetoric ramps up.

     Trump has also called into question the deal first signed in 2009, but there may be an ulterior motive behind the increase in questioning the deal.

      While Trump has been making the call, U.S exports of domestic oil have increased along with the increase in U.S domestic production. If sanctions were to be ramped up again against Iran, it could come in the form of lower oil output again from Iran, creating space for both U.S and Saudi Arabian exports to fill the void.

      Saudi Arabia has also lost a little market share in the last couple of years and may have good reason in limiting the cash intake to a country that supports the opposite regime in Yemen.

      In the meantime, the Saudi crown prince is on record as saying the Saudi’s would build nuclear weapons if Iran succeeds.

      Scary times...



Venezuelan production lower...

Unrest and a weak economy saddled with a huge government debt is driving Venezuelan production lower at a time when the South American country can least afford it..

      According to International Energy Agency figures, the South American country’s production has fallen close to 600,000 barrels a day since the same time last year.



Provincial budget next week to lower gas taxes?...

The province is set to drop the budget March 27th and that brings with it the promise of a return to lower gas taxes as government is set to remove the last four cents a litre (4.6 cents including HST) first implemented in Budget 2016.

      The gas tax at that time doubled from 16.5 cents a litre to 33 cents a litre in an attempt to increase provincial revenue by increasing the gas tax take from $189 million per year to a predicted $318 million.



That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter@GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Tillerson removal and this week's price changes...


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:



*Heating and stove oil to drop by 4/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel to decrease by 3/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline to decrease by a half penny a litre.



Market highlights



Watch oil-Tillerson is gone...

While it was a fairly quiet week on the markets, the removal of Tillerson from the Trump “cabinet” again placed an interest back into Middle East politics.

      At this point, his removal shouldn’t be a surprise. Both were miles apart on a key issue on Trump’s agenda, a renegotiation of the Iran nuclear deal.

      With Tillerson now gone, it may be worthwhile to keep an eye on oil prices as Trump may be about to take a poke at the Middle Eastern bear to see if he can’t again get his way and make changes to the Iran nuclear deal signed by Obama and five other nations in 2015.



U.S inventories

U.S crude inventories increased again last week adding 2.4 million barrels in a report that also showed a drop in gasoline supplies of 800K barrels.

      Distillate also saw a drop in inventories of 600K barrels.

      Refiner capacity was recorded at 88 per cent with scheduled refinery shut-downs.

       U.S domestic oil production hit a new high of 10.369 million barrels a day, an increase of 86,000 barrels in the last week.



That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil