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Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Numbers mostly down...Just a bit!

Weak data on the numbers for this week, all due to the US Thanksgiving Day holiday. Resulted in a few days where the markets were closed last week. Here's what I have...

Heating and stove oils show an added 95/100ths of a cent, while Diesel shows a drop of 1.4 cents a litre.

Regular gasoline shows a drop of 2.1 cents a litre based on just two days of data, while reformulated blend of gasoline shows a drop of 1.4 cents a litre.


By the way...I'm getting  a few notes here asking me to keep publishing the link to that Harvard study on world oil consumption and production.

Here's the link: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf 

It's really an interesting read!

Regards,

George

Thursday, November 22, 2012

PUB needs to review Muskrat Falls again...



Hi to all,

This is a “must read” for anyone concerned with the Muskrat Falls project, whether you are for, or against it…

I’m forwarding this off to everyone on my blog. I think it’s one of the most important reasons why the government has to send the Muskrat Falls project off to the Public Utilities Board again for full review of the business case.

In fact, there might even be a danger here to our offshore energy exploration and development if this scenario is right.

There are several reasons why I believe them to be true, with the latest coming just the other day in the Globe and Mail story on Canada’s own energy industry that tells of the same dangers.

Several factors in this report also have changed. The author talks about the Bakken oil field development in the US Midwest that shows the immense growth on North Dakota oil production. Just back in 2006, they reported domestic crude production at just 30, 000 barrels per day. Last week, the Globe reported their production had increased to 756,000 barrels, above Mauderi’s own projections of 530,000 BPD in this paper.

Last week, US domestic oil production reached 6.8 million barrels per day, up from last year’s domestic number of 5.1 million. The difference, if stretched out until 2020, the same year he projects production to 11.6 million barrels, US domestic production could total near 14 million barrels per day. That figure alone is staggering!

All the projections on natural gas are in there too.

He’s projecting a drop in oil prices to $50 and $65 US by 2015 and worldwide demand growth of just 1% . The International Energy Agency projects 1.6%, but that number has been adjusted downwards three times already.

Now, if the US starts getting into electrical generation using natural gas, we have a problem finding markets for excess electricity. We could be saddled with an immense debt to pay off through the rate payers or through any increases to taxpayers to offset the losses of Muskrat Falls.

It’s probably a big reason why some have not signed on to bring the power across the Cabot Strait yet either. They’re possibly waiting for the world to unfold, as we should…

Read the report here:



Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

What a week in the markets so far!



Hi to all,

Here's what I have for price changes this week, but there is a little disclaimer for this one!...
Data comes from just six days out of the seven needed...
Keep in mind the winter blend is being used for heating oil and diesel fuel, so, even with all the numbers, they're still off somewhat.

·         Heating and stove oils show an added 4/10ths of a cent.
·         Diesel shows an increase of 3.1 cents a litre..
·         Regular gasoline shows a drop of 7/10ths of a cent.
·         The reformulated gasoline blend shows the opposite, an added 7/10ths of a cent.

Local highlights
·         No sign of the heating rebate program. Still no notice of the heating rebate program, although we’re told it will be coming “shortly”. I’m wondering how come we have to wait for the announcement when government should just make the program a permanent fixture.
·         U.S oil and gas production set to increase to self-sustaining levels by 2017 and number one in the world by 2020. I’m surprised that no one in the media has picked up on the impact of the shale oil and gas revolution that may very well impact our southern market. IF the US becomes self-sufficient, and domestic oil production picks up worldwide, as predicted what does that do to our price, let alone the hope of getting oil companies to come in and do other offshore work. More to follow on this, as the implications are obvious!

Market highlights
·         Middle East violence adds volatility to the markets. Oil up slightly one day and down again the next. The promised violence in the Middle east always a factor in oil prices, doesn’t seem to be having too much of an effect on prices, even though there is some correlation. Other incidents have led to much larger increases in oil. The promise of a possible halt to violence may be a late factor.
·         European Union enters another recession. Escalating unemployed numbers, with Greece setting a new record of over 25% unemployed, has pushed the EU back into recession, at least on paper.
·         Crude oil supplies up on latest US inventory report, but gasoline and distillate inventories take a hit.
·         Hurricane Sandy recovery still ongoing. Two refineries left to bring online. Production totaling 300K from both.
·         US domestic production hits another record. The 5.1 million barrels per day figure of last year was shattered in an announcement from Bloomberg’s last week when they reported a huge increase to 6.7 million barrels a day of oil production.


That’s it for this week!

George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Thursday numbers...Not much change



Hi to all,

                Here’s what I have in the way of price changes for this week:
·         Heating and stove oils show a drop of just 17/100ths of a cent
·         Diesel shows a drop of a cent.
·         Regular gasoline shows an increase of 1.4 cents a litre, and…
·         Reformulated gasoline shows an added 1.7 cents a litre.

Key market highlights

·         Key reports show the United States to become one of the world’s leading producers, even surpassing Saudi Arabia for a time. US to reach self-sufficiency by 2030.
·         Crude oil, gasoline and distillates all show inventory gains in last week’s US Energy Information Administration report.
·         Forecast for gasoline prices to start to drop, but uncertainty remains in the wake of Hurricane Sandy’s disruption of US northeast supplies.
·         OPEC sees the potential threat in shale gas. Expecting crude demand to drop by more than 1.6 million barrels a day by 2015. A combination of shale gas and rising domestic production from countries like the US, Brazil and Canada, combined with worldwide laws on conservation measures will weigh heavy.

Final thought

                With the massive changes we have been seeing in recent weeks, particularly the latest news on rising US domestic production and self-sufficiency, should Newfoundland and Labrador take another look at its energy plan and strategy, knowing that we’re looking south of the border for most of our oil and potential power sales?

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Thursday numbers



Hi to all,

                A little complicated this week as not all data for regular gasoline was published as a direct result of Hurricane Sandy. Markets were closed for a few days last week, resulting in some unpublished data.
                Regular gasoline numbers are based on just three days data, while all other fuels, including the reformulated number, are based on the full seven days.

                Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

·         Heating and stove oils show a drop of 2.41 cents a litre.
·         Diesel shows a drop of 1.7 cents a litre
·         Regular gasoline shows an increase of 1.8 cents a litre, and…
·         Reformulated blend shows an added 2.3 cents a litre.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA