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Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Price increases for Thursday, January 31, 2013



Oil prices rise on increased Middle east tension
Refined commodities to swipe consumers

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, January 29, 2013 - Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see a noticeable increase to petroleum prices when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices to consumers this week. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“There has been a noticeable rise in crude oil prices this past week with both positive economic news from the United States and also with increasing tensions out of the Middle East.” Murphy said. “ First we saw troubles in Algeria which led to a slight drop in production with last week’s attack on a gas and pipeline facility,  and also on word of a possible supply disruption through the Suez Canal, as violence there has the leadership calling for a possibility of Egypt becoming a failed state, that according to the Egyptian defense minister.”

“Meanwhile, positive economic news coming out of the United States is reporting lower jobless claims, higher housing starts. Investors are betting on a turn-around in the US economy that may be a hedge-point for increasing consumer demand. That comes also on the heel of a surprise drop in gasoline inventories last week.

The numbers

“Numbers show heating and stove oils to increase by 1.88 cents a litre, while Diesel fuel will increase by 2.1 cents a litre. Keep in mind the winter blending of kerosene into these fuels that might throw the numbers off slightly, as I cannot track kerosene numbers. Regular gasoline shows an added 4.3 cents a litre and reformulated blends to increase by the same 4.3 cents a litre. The distillate numbers are not showing a great increase, probably as a result of their gain in inventory as well as warmer weather along the US northeast coast this week that would help to lower demand for those products.”

More Market highlights

·         OPEC production drops during December month by close on 400,000 barrels a day, keeping OPEC production at 30.4 million barrels a day for the month.
·         The US dollar increased against the Canadian dollar this past week with the US dollar gaining value as investors turned funds over into the US greenback on a rising positive economic outlook. The Canadian dollar lost better than a penny against the US dollar.
·         Most increases are pointing to a temporary increase in oil prices as a result of ongoing North African violence that ranges anywhere between, Nigeria, Mali, Algeria, Libya and Egypt.
·         The Energy Information Administration in the US reported a surprise draw in gasoline inventories of 1.7 million barrels while both distillate and crude oil inventories increased, with crude increasing by 2.8 million barrels.

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For more information, contact:

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Price changes for Thursday, January 24, 2013



Oil rises on economic news
Refined commodities rise also

Media release

Conception Bay South, January 22, 2013- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see a slight increase to prices when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices this coming Thursday. While not alarming, the numbers this week may be an indicator that things are starting to turn around in the North American and Asian economies. That news from George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“We’re starting to see some good news coming from the Japanese markets where their government is on the edge of announcing a stimulus program for its economy. Commodities traded higher on the news as well as a clear policy shift from the government was indicating it was readying its economy for some inflationary factors as a result of the policy shift. They’re making a bet for long term growth,” Murphy said. “And while Greece is not out of the woods yet, other European Union countries are having a little more faith that Greece is directing its bailout money exactly as it said it would. There’s a little more economic confidence that the $130 billion Euro bailout will pay dividends in the end.”

Germany also saw some positive news as numbers showed an increase in investor confidence. They were buoyed by the fact that US House representatives from the Republican side will vote later tomorrow for an increase in the US debt ceiling that will then delay the debt ceiling discussion until sometime mid-May.

The numbers
“Numbers are showing some increases as a result of the increase in refined commodities as well as an average $2 US increase in oil prices over this past seven-day session. I have heating and stove oils to increase by 8/10ths of a cent a litre and Diesel prices to rise by 1.1 cents a litre. Keep in mind that the winter months se kerosene used in their blending mix, and that may offset what prices will actually do. Regular gasoline shows an added 1.8 cents a litre, while the reformulated blend shows an added 1.2 cents a litre.

Other market news
·         Alberta’s treasury has been taking a beating. Just how bad is it? The province’s finance minister estimated Alberta crude oil to hit $83US a barrel this year, but so far, it’s traded almost 35% below last year’s estimate of $72 US. Alberta crude oil is a rough $42 US  a barrel below WTI prices of $96 US as of today’s trading!
·         Brazil sees some value in issuing offshore exploration licenses by auction. Part of that reason may very well be the capital costs involved, but the real reason is the high degree of interest in a largely unexplored region off the coast that gave up part of an estimated 50 billion barrel secret just six years ago.

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That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

The latest: January 15, 2013



Gasoline trades lower on mid-west pressure and dropping demand

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, January 15, 2013- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see a slight downwards adjustment to gasoline prices this Thursday morning when the Public Utilities Board re-adjusts prices. That news comes from George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Market pressure
“There’s a lot of pressure downwards on gasoline this week as demand for gasoline remains tepid amidst world economic data. While we’re seeing some signs of increasing oil prices, we’re not seeing solid demand growth that goes along with it. Inventories have been building in spite of a slight increase in oil prices”, Murphy said. “I don’t expect oil to keep climbing either. Already, we’re seeing some signs of inflation coming out of China, and that may serve to cool things a little. It’s widely believed that oil prices may have gained too much value in the interim and there stands to be a price correction downwards.

Price changes
“For this week, I expect heating and stove oils to drop by just 18/100ths of a cent. Diesel fuel shows no change in price for this week. However, keep in mind that I can’t track kerosene that is used as a winter blending agent in the distillate fuels. Gasoline numbers are a little better. Both fuels measured are showing a drop in price to consumers is on the way, with regular gasoline to drop by 1.9 cents a litre and reformulated blends dropping by 2.0 cents a litre.

What’s ahead
“Enter onto the stage, the bargaining set to begin over another fiscal cliff in the United States, this time over the US’s debt ceiling. Lawmakers in the US are now talking about the possible default of the US on its debt that is hitting the $16.4 trillion dollar mark with a credit deadline of the last week of February when it’s expected to run dry. In the meantime, the World Bank is cutting its growth forecast by a few more tenths as developed countries economic growth slows. They’ve cut their forecast to 2.4 percent from the previous three percent. Added up, that’s a lot of oil still going unused”.

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, January 08, 2013

Price changes: January 10th, 2013




Hi to all,

            Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:
·         Heating and stove oils are down by just 72/100ths of a cent.
·         Diesel fuel shows a drop of just 5/10ths of a cent.
·         Regular gasoline shows a drop of just three tenths of a cent, and…
·         Reformulated blends of gasoline show a drop of just 1.0 cents a litre.

Market highlights

·         Crude oil inventories in the US take a draw-down by 11 million barrels.
·         Gasoline inventories gain 2.2 million barrels for the week, while distillate inventories in crease close on 4.6 million barrels.
·         Major railroad investments seen to alleviate massive central US glut of oil, increasing exports to the coast by 700K barrels a day.
·         Oil prices increase slightly to $93 US WTI for the week on fiscal cliff agreement. US not being seen as out of the woods yet, as talks continue on increasing the US debt ceiling with an “end of February” deadline.
·         US domestic production increases to the point that companies south of the border are investing in new pipeline infrastructure to bring product to available US coastal refineries. It’s also leading to investment in old fashioned use of railway to get it to markets. Central US shale oil development has dropped WTI crude oil prices from $108US in March 2012 to today’s $93 US a barrel, making WTI more attractive to US buyers against Brent crude.
·         Exxon hedging its oilsands projects with the development of Hebron? New age for offshore exploration? The Bloomberg view.

That’s it for this week!

Regards for now,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, January 01, 2013

Happy New Year! Numbers for January 3rd, 2013



Season’s greetings and all the best for the New Year!

                Keeping this one short and sweet at this time. Back on track again for next week!

                Oil rises slightly as a potential deal over the US fiscal cliff plays in the markets over the past couple of days. Oil has increased a rough $3 US on fiscal cliff talks. The hope that some sort of deal can be reached before the New Year settles came through last night with both parties to vote on the arrangement in the US Senate possibly later today. The deal would mitigate taxes placed on the middle class, renewing the hope that the US economy would not suffer the effects of slipping back into recession.

                Caution here, as markets were closed a few days over the holiday season, and some days published showed no data. My numbers also do not account for kerosene used in winter blending for heating oils and diesel fuel.

                Here’s what I have for this week’s changes:
·         Heating and stove oils show an added 77/100ths of a cent.
·         Diesel fuel shows no change.
·         Regular gasoline shows an added 1.9 cents a litre, and…
·         Reformulated gasoline shows an added 2.0 cents a litre.

That’s it for this week!

Regards for now!

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA