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Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, September 28, 2017


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:



*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 1.3 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel shows an increase of 2.2 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows no changes at the pumps this week.



Market highlights

Gasoline remained relatively steady even as refined gasoline showed gains in U.S dollar terms, there was enough gain by the Canadian dollar these past two weeks to absorb any increase this week to prices.

    However, a sharp rise in gasoline prices today on the New York exchange does lead me to believe that numbers will be up slightly, all contingent on U.S inventory data that is due out tomorrow.

    Right now, gasoline shows up for next week by 1.7 cents. Stay tuned for next Tuesday’s release!



Crude oil turns higher

Crude oil prices were supported this week on two main stories, the first centering around the possible disruption of exports from Ceyhan, Turkey as infighting continues around Iraq’s major northwest oil fields control. That leaves a struggle between Kurdish and Iraqi forces for control of the northwestern located oil fields immediately ahead of a referendum seeking Kurdish independence. Turkey is threatening to close the pipeline if the vote goes ahead.



Word from OPEC also this week that saw some support for oil as they claim that OPEC-led cuts last year are beginning to bite into world supply. OPEC claims that cuts are dropping ahead of some uptick in demand from countries like China.



That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, September 21, 2017


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes for Newfoundland and Labrador as well as New Brunswick:



*Heating/stove oils show an increase of one cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel shows an increase of 8/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of 6.2 cents a litre.



As predicted a few weeks back in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, I estimated at the time that it would take about two to three weeks before we see the markets come back into some form of normalcy. With the expected decrease, it looks like the recovery is complete with the exception of a penny in the difference between prices before and after Harvey’s market impact.



I’ll be watching the latest in U.S inventory reports due to be released tomorrow around noon Newfoundland time as these numbers will be a good indicator for refinery capacity increases along with gasoline inventories. While there was a considerable draw in gasoline inventories last week, I’m expecting still to see a draw from the side-effects from Hurricane Irma, which only partly affected U.S inventories from last week.



Either way, the recovery is just about complete, and if today’s market is any indication, there is a penny down showing for gasoline ahead of next week!



That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, September 12, 2017


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes, along with a hint on what’s to come next week:



*Heating/stove oil to drop by 8/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel to drop by 1.1 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to drop by 7.2 cents a litre.



Hurricane Harvey’s effects on the market are beginning to settle down and we’re getting a good read on the return of refining capacity in the Gulf of Mexico.



As of this morning, only six percent of capacity remains offline due to longer than anticipated re-start.



Tomorrow’s inventory data may show exactly what happened to gasoline supplies as regards to both Harvey and Irma as gasoline saw a “panic buy” spree ahead of the storms. While last week’s draw-down of inventory saw short of four million barrels down, the fact that refinery capacity country-wide in the U.S was only at 79.9 percent.



With capacity showing a huge drop, gasoline should have been down substantially in inventory, but it wasn’t. That’s probably part reason why the markets in New York saw an increase of just 13 cents a litre converted to Canadian values.



A picture is already being formed on what we can expect next week. So far, spot prices for gasoline are down a rough five cents a litre in the first day of the seven day session, so I’m advising consumers to continue to conserve to ride out the tail end of this extraordinary event on the markets.



I’m guessing that we will most likely be back to where prices were before last week’s massive increase at the pumps...as predicted.



Regards,



For more information, contact:



George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Gasoline still dropping in Harvey's aftermath

Hi to all,

Just a quick update on what I'm seeing in the markets since yesterday's rattle at the pumps.

Just crunched the data so far and the downward trend has started, albeit I'm keeping an eye to Hurricane Irma's impact. Right now, there is panic buying ahead of the storm's landfall in Florida in the next day or so. It hasn't impacted the gas markets yet, but that is a possibility that may not get picked up until the next release of inventory data on Wednesday from the U.S Energy Information Administration.

So far, gasoline shows a drop of 4.5 cents a litre at the pumps, but like I say, that's just two days data. You need all seven days data to call the final shot on what we can expect, but there is enough downward movement to say that I believe the numbers will be down as predicted.

In the meantime, in the coming days, I will pen my thoughts here on what I feel our country really needs to do to protect us all from spikes like this, so, stay tuned.

Stay in touch, and I will too!

Regards,

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil 

Tuesday, September 05, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, September 7, 2017


Hi to all,

Sorry for not keeping everyone up to date as I wished last week, and thanks to those who sent their condolences or visited us at the untimely passing of my Mother. I will remember your kindness a long time!



All the data is now in for this week and is still pretty close to what I initially had yesterday. Here’s the new projections for this week:



*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 4.2 cents a litre.

*Diesel shows an added 4.5 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an added 14.1 cents a litre.



A couple of things here.



First off, gasoline is starting to show a retreat as of today. The markets show for day one of the next pricing session gas dropping by 2.5 cents a litre, but there’s still six days to go, so I fully expect to see further drops as refineries start to re-enter production from Hurricane Harvey’s after-effects.



Secondly, all this is a repeat of what happened during the Katrina and Rita events of 2005. The failure of government to ensure the security of supply to the Canadian economy in ensuring adequate inventory keeping of refined product that meets our needs in an emergency, along with a moratorium on refinery closures are two important aspects. The third thing the government of Canada needs to do is re-visit the Competition Act to ensure companies cannot share supply between each other that has cost in refinery capacity, let alone jobs.



Lastly, while other centres like Ottawa increased in prices by 31 cents a litre and Toronto by 23 cents in a competitive market, the government needs to remind companies that we have the Emergencies Act that I think can be used to ensure consumers do not get gouged at a time that consumers would deem to be a crisis, in this case where prices went far out of line from what was the actual.



We cannot avoid the actualities of the markets, but fortunately I think, we have a mechanism in place to protect consumers somewhat when that emergency comes about.



That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil