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Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Price changes for Thursday, July 26, 2016

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for price changes for this week!

*Heating and stove oils show a slight drop of 8/10ths of a cent a litre....
*Diesel fuel shows a slight drop as well of 6/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline is also down this week, but just by 3/10ths of a cent a litre.


Market highlights

Crude drops again
      Monday this week saw another drop in crude oil as market analysts have a renewed fear over crude oil over-supply continues to sway oil prices.
Latest API inventory data from the industry-led group shows a less than expected drawdown on crude oil inventories.
      No surprise here, but the real confirmation may come from the US Energy Information's Administration's inventory data when it is released tomorrow noon our time. Another reported build in inventory, or smaller than expected drawdown on inventories of crude, may very well extend the recent slide in crude oil prices.
     Weak demand for gasoline and indications of a huge surplus in gasoline and distillate supplies has also played in to the latest drop in crude oil prices.

Canadian dollar moves lower
      With lower oil comes a lower Canadian dollar, with the Canuck Buck dropping a full two cents against the US greenback over the past three days since oil's slide.
      The Canadian dollar was measured at $1.3209 against the US dollar at noon today.

Rig counts up again
      The US rig count was up again last Friday, and it is probably a huge indicator of just how robust the smaller producers have become in the face of lower prices. The rig count rose another 15 rigs last week, up again for the seventh week in a row.

That's it for this week!

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Price changes for Thursday, July 21, 2016


Hi to all,

Final numbers for this week are actually not far off from last night's posting. Here's what I have:

*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 2.1 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of 1.5 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of 7/10ths of a cent a litre.

Market highlights

Gasoline to drop next week?
     An after hours American Petroleum Institute inventory report sent gasoline futures lower as the industry report showed a build in gasoline inventories that lends further support to weaker demand for gasoline than industry speculators thought. When the industry starts sending out signs of weak demand, you know there's a "problem" with demand.
     Inventory reports out of the US Energy Information Administration in recent weeks has been showing the same sign of weak summer demand that has played well into lower prices (except here because of the added tax).

Distillate drops ahead of September buying contract
     Distillate prices in the trading markets are down again this week, ahead of the September buying contract. Inventories of heating, stove oil and diesel fuels are all well above last years levels for this time of the year and show promise of potentially lower prices for those fuels to consumers if the trend keeps going.
     Stocks are presently about twelve million barrels ahead of last year's mark. With refinery capacity close to 93 percent, I expect there to be more additions to inventories of distillate that will mitigate any increase to consumer prices...At least for the time-being!

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Price changes for Thursday, July 14, 2016

Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes in what has been a very volatile week!

*Heating and stove oils show a drop of three cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel also shows a drop of three cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 3.4 cents a litre on the way.


Market highlights

*Gasoline inventories remain high
       As reported by the US Energy Information last week, "product supplied" versus "product used" remains about 250,000 barrels above where refiners feel the numbers should be to maintain prices. The result played heavy in the markets last week as demand was seen to be weak and inventories for gasoline will remain high through the summer.
       Gasoline inventories are a strong 21 million barrels above last year's numbers. Refiner capacity is close to 92 percent as they just keep refining!

*Early winter outlook
       While the US EIA reports inventories for gasoline up, distillate inventories are also up, but not to the same degree. As of last week, distillate inventory is just above 11 million barrels for the same timeframe last year, and that number may be important to see maintained in the long term.
If inventories remain above the seasonal we are seeing this week, it may prove that the industry may be able to keep up with any anticipated demand over the winter, and this may keep prices relatively steady as compared to last winter.
       Any drop in refiner capacity or uptick in demand for distillate will, however, impact inventories and may help to increase prices. But for now, it's looking like "steady as she goes".

I'll leave it there for this week!

Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, July 05, 2016

Price changes for Thursday, July 7, 2016

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for price changes this week:

*Heating and stove oils are up by 1.2 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel is up by a penny even, and...
*Gasoline shows a penny down.


Market highlights

*US drilling rig count rises
        The US drill rig count rose again last week, partly sparking the markets to look again at rising oil prices and sparking fears that the US domestic production has hit a level where they can show clear profits at lower oil prices.
        The count rose by eleven rigs last week, with news hitting the markets only today as markets remained closed over the US Independence Day holiday.
        With rig counts rising again, the possibilities of added oil to US domestic supplies saw oil prices again in retreat, falling close to five percentage points from Friday's market close.

*Gasoline demand takes a tumble
        As predicted here a few weeks ago, US demand for summer gasoline has taken an "expected" shift downwards in a late report from the US Energy Information Administration.
        Last week's inventory report saw the markets force gasoline prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange to "freefall" by close to eight cents a US gallon as reality of rising production and rising inventories of gasoline midway through the US summer driving season bites home.
        Latest trends in the US reports show refinery capacity rising and exceeding US consumption of gasoline by close to 250,000 barrels a day and leaving inventories over 20 million barrels over the same timeframe from last year.
        The sell-off was on and oil prices paid for it.

*Don't expect big changes...
        While both oil and gasoline prices were down today, don't expect big changes to prices this week as a few days trading are needed to bring prices down. The latest hit on the markets will most likely play into prices next week, if the downward trend continues.

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyOil