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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Thanks to Sandy, no big changes



Hi to all,

                Not much change in the numbers this week, thanks to Hurricane Sandy.

                Numbers initially showed that there would be another round of decreases, that is, until Sandy was starting to track into the US northeast, where there is a strong center for oil refining and gasoline production. Sandy was successful in causing a slight run-up in gasoline numbers that negated any decrease that was forthcoming.

                Either way, here’s what I have for this week’s changes:

·         Heating and stove oils show downwards by 4/10ths of a cent a litre.
·         Diesel is also showing down by 1/10th of a cent.
·         Regular gasoline shows down by 6/10ths of a cent, and…
·         Reformulated blends show upwards by 8/10ths of a cent.

Keep in mind that the numbers for heating, stove oils and diesel are all subject to the use of the winter blend of fuels, so that number may be off somewhat from the actual that may occur.

                That’s it for this week!

                Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Final numbers for Thursday

Final numbers for Thursdays' price change. 
keep in mind that heating, stove oils and diesel all have kerosene in their winter blends now, so those numbers can only be used as a rough guide on which way those prices will be going!

Heating and stove oils show down by 1.67 cents a litre, while Diesel is down by 2.2 cents a litre.

Now the kicker! 
Gasoline numbers are down considerably on strong indications of a slow economic recovery and good inventory builds last week: Regular gasoline shows a drop of 7.3 cents a litre on the way, while the reformulated gasoline number shows down by 8.3 cents a litre.

I have no doubt on volatility in the downwards direction! But a good indicator of where gasoline is going comes out of Nova Scotia this evening. They have invoked the use of their interrupter formula. Theirs works when prices show a drop anywhere between 6 and 8 cents a litre, a good indication of where our prices will be going Thursday morning!
 
You should notice a far cry in the St. John's area from the current maximum allowable of $1.36.7 a litre!
 Hold off until Thursday to buy, if you can!
 
Regards,
 
George
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA
 

Monday, October 22, 2012

One day to go: Numbers are down!

Hi to all,
       Just a quick note:

Numbers down for Thursday so far with just one day to go: 
          Heating/stove oils down by 1.35 a litre, 
          Diesel down 1.7 cents a litre. 

         Two numbers for gasoline both show down. 
         Regular unleaded numbers is down by 6.8 cents a litre.
        The reformulated blend shows down by 7.7 cents a litre.

Like I say, one day to go...

Fingers crossed for tomorrow's trading!

Regards,

George
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA
 

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Gas to drop, Distillate fuels to rise



Hi to all,

                Things should be back to normal after a maddening last two weeks on the markets…I hope!

                Here’s what I have for this week:
·         Heating, stove oils and Diesel all show up by 2.7 cents a litre. Keep in mind that kerosene is used in the winter heating mix, as well as in the diesel fuel. No numbers for kerosene available, so use this as a rough indicator on price direction!
·         Regular unleaded gasoline shows down by 2.1 cents a litre, and…
·         Reformulated gasoline show down by 2.4 cents a litre.

Yes, I am still tracking the reformulated number for accuracy, and also for the fact that, while not available in Atlantic Canada quite yet, it should soon be. Reformulated mixtures were approved for use in Canada back in December, 2010.

Some market highlights
·         International Energy Agency has cut the world demand forecast for oil, helping to drop back prices.
·         US inventory report from last Wednesday showed an increase in overall US production of oil, dropping back foreign demand.
·         Iraq produces close to 2.6 million barrels a day for September month, and expect 2.8 million BPD in October, far above previous records. 6.1 million barrels a day production by 2020 is forecast.
·         Economic and financial worries still plague the European Union with Spain again looking for more bailout money.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

Final numbers for Thursday



Final numbers for Thursday!

                A reminder that my heating, stove and diesel numbers may show some inaccuracies as a result of the winter blend for those fuels, which came into effect at the last price setting. Kerosene, for which I cannot obtain numbers, is now in the mix for the winter. Because of that, those numbers can only be used as a rough indicator of which way those fuels are performing.

·         Heating and stove oils show a decrease of 1.03 cents a litre.
·         Diesel is down by just 3/10ths of a cent.
·         Regular unleaded gasoline shows downwards by 9.6 cents a litre, and…
·         Reformulated blend gasoline shows a downwards movement by 6.7 cents a litre.

I’m still following both gasoline types for accuracy and I’ll make the decision on which one to follow in the next couple of price settings. I include both to show the downwards volatility of their pricing.

Regards for now!

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Monday, October 08, 2012

Numbers for this week show gasoline retreating



 Hi to all,

                Now we get to see the reverse of last week’s increases!
                Six days out of seven here. Tomorrow’s business day will affect these numbers further, but it does look like a substantial decrease coming for gasoline prices this Thursday.

                Here’s what I have so far:
·         Heating and stove oils down by 1.08/Litre.
·         Diesel down by 4/10ths of a cent a litre, and…
·         Regular unleaded gasoline shows down by 9.5 cents a litre and reformulated blends are down by 6.7 cents a litre.

I can’t account for the change in the heating blend. Those numbers are to be used as just an indicator, reason being because of the winter blend which uses kerosene in the mix.


Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, October 02, 2012

Increases across the board...All data in!



All the data is in.
                Here’s what I have for Thursday.
                Numbers from the markets today have almost come back around to “pre-binge” status. Gasoline spot prices showed a steep upwards curve, almost back to where they started before last week.
                Note here that diesel and heating/stove numbers are relatively close in comparison.

Wall Street Journal
·         Heating/stove shows up by 2.02/Litre
·         Diesel shows up by 2.0/Litre, and…
·         Gasoline shows an added 8.5/Litre
·         Reformulated gasoline shows an added 7.2/Litre

Accordingly, one of my other sources is also showing increases.

Natural Resources Canada (average rack)
·         Heating/stove shows up by 1.76/litre
·         Diesel fuel shows up by 2.0/Litre
·         Gasoline shows up by 5.0/Litre

Either way, there are increases across the board here. The gasoline numbers are a bit stretched between three different sources of numbers , but they are showing a considerable increase to come.

Regards for now,

George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for fair Gas Prices
Twitter: GeorgeMurphyMA