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Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, November 2, 2017


Hi to all,



No trick...and definitely no treat, here are the expected price changes for this Thursday, November 2, 2017:



*Heating and stove oil to increase by 3.4 cents a litre.

*Diesel shows an added 3.8 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an added 4.6 cents a litre at the pumps.



Market highlights



OPEC cuts telling?

OPEC and non-OPEC members have agreed to extend output cuts made in November 2016 well past the March 2018 end of the initial agreement.

    OPEC member Saudi Arabia first introduced cuts but were then joined by non-OPEC members Russia and Azerbaijan to total 1.8 million barrels a day in cuts which have been seen to reduce the world oversupply of crude oil. Prices have been rising in recent weeks on the news to hit $61 US as of today.



Gasoline inventories hit

Gasoline inventories took a hit in last week’s EIA inventory report with the fuel dropping 5.5 million barrels in inventory.

    What made the number even more significant was the fact that refiner capacity was recorded at 87.8 per cent. While capacity on average hits the low 90’s, the missing capacity wasn’t seen as enough to build demand. Could be a good sign of an increase in demand.

     U.S spot price for gasoline has increased five cents a US gallon since the last pricing session ended.



Canadian dollar lower

While the price of oil has risen in recent weeks, the Canadian dollar has lost ground against the US dollar, dropping almost four cents against its US counterpart since October 19th. Almost every cent increase at the pumps equals every 3/4 cent lost against the US Greenback.



That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, October 19, 2017


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:



*Heating and stove oil to increase by 1.5 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by 1.3 cents a lire, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of 1.2 cents a litre.



           Geo-political risks have taken the front seat in the markets this week as Donald Trump’s sabre-rattling over the Iran nuclear deal continues to weigh in the markets. While groups such as the European Union say the deal is being adhered to by Iran, Trump wants a stronger deal than is present in the July, 2015 agreement signed in part by the Obama administration.

          One wonders what Trump’s plan is, but instability seems to be a part of his agenda as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is said to be adhered to according to groups like the International Atomic Energy Agency and even the U.S State Department!                 

          Add to that the disruption of exports from Ceyhan, Turkey of oil from the Kirkuk region of Iraq as Kurdish fighters and the Iraqi army tussle over the region rich in oil fields. The fighting has led to an increase in the value of Brent crude and the removal of close to 600,000 barrels a day in exports from the Turkish port city.

          What will be interesting to watch in the coming days and weeks will be the response from U.S domestic production as oil prices see some height above the $50 US per barrel mark.



           That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, October 12, 2017


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:



*Heating/stove oils show a drop of two cents a litre.

*Diesel shows a drop of 1.4 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of just 6/10ths of a cent a litre.



Market highlights



Gasoline inventories climb again

As the markets and consumers recover from the effects of Hurricane Harvey, it’s also worth noting that refineries still haven’t come back to previous capacity levels before the hurricane hit the major Texas and area refining region.

   Generally believed is the fact that some refiners have used the downtime to do maintenance before the winter season hits. It’s just happening a little earlier than normal.

    With capacity still hanging around 88 per cent, capacity was recorded around 93 percent before Harvey hit. If the remaining difference in capacity comes on-line, then the added inventory could help to drop prices and possibly steady the distillate price, which has also been rising again as of late.



OPEC talks with Russia

OPEC member Saudi Arabia and Russia have both been in discussions the last few days and extending agreed-upon cuts are on the agenda.

     OPEC members along with Russia and Azerbaijan, agreed to make almost 1.8 million barrels a day in production cuts to help cut into the world’s excess of crude oil.

     According to them, the cuts are finally beginning to take hold and oil has been seeing a little bit of a boost as of late.

     It remains to be seen how long the cuts will last as previous reports have shown some OPEC members producing a little more than what was initially agreed to and U.S domestic production as well as U.S exports both continue to increase.

     As a side-note, for the third week in a row, Brent crude has been averaging anywhere between $55 and $58 US a barrel.



That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

Price changes for thursday, October 5th, 2017


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:



*Heating, stove oil and Diesel fuel all show a drop of 3/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Gasoline shows a drop of 2.5 cents a litre.



Consumers to get another break at the pumps



“Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia can expect to see a break at the pumps again this week when their various regulatory authorities adjust prices”. That’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.



Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as New Brunswick both set their prices as of Wednesday at midnight, while Nova Scotia adjusts prices Thursday midnight.



“In the wake of Harvey, we’re starting to see refiner capacity climb while gasoline inventories also rise. Gasoline inventories increased last week with refinery capacity still below what it was “pre-Harvey”, Murphy said. “With capacity still not back to those levels, it is reasonable to assume that the markets will be looking at two important factors in the equation, the first being no panic buying ahead of the storms which immediately takes pressure off gasoline, and two, the fact that we’re looking at gasoline being produced in excess while capacity is low. Almost seven per cent lower than before Harvey landed.



“I’ll be watching tomorrow’s inventory data to see if the trend looks to be continuing falling prices as refiners are also into the switch from refining gasoline to the refinement of distillates and winter gasoline blends as the weather cools. Gasoline shows a strong sign of weakening demand here, so hopefully, prices will drop further in the favour of the consumer”.



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For more information, contact;



George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil