Follow by Email

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Price changes for Thursday, June 28th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for price changes for Thursday, June 28th, 2018:

*Heating and stove oil to increase by a cent even.

*Diesel fuel to increase by 6/10ths of a cent per litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of 9/10ths of a cent a litre.

Markets show a slight increase in the works

“Expect to see a small increase in prices across the board as markets react to shortfalls of oil in the last days of the pricing session.” That word from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“For the first time since the U.S Memorial Day holiday weekend, consumers here will see a slight increase in prices due mainly to sudden shortfalls in expected crude oil output.” Murphy said. “OPEC and non-OPEC suppliers got together last weekend and agreed to supply the markets with an additional million barrels a day to help keep prices at the $70 U.S range where OPEC wants it, but they’re having problems just getting 600,000 barrels back online.”

      Latest word with Libya and Venezuela also spells trouble as they are having issues getting crude into the markets; Venezuela because of civil unrest and Libya, because of fighting that has closed its two major ports for oil export.

      “Enter Donald Trump who has expectations for all European Union nations to adhere to Iranian sanctions that Trump says will be brought in by November 4th, removing another 500,000 barrels from U.S imports,, and you have a recipe for rising prices. To top it all off, draws are expected against U.S West Texas Intermediate crudes as a electrical fire has caused a major disruption of exports of crude from Alberta with the shutdown of Syncrude’s 350,000 barrel a day refinery in Alberta.

      “In very short order, over the past week, we have a shortfall in crude oil that is real, and shows just how sensitive the oil markets really are. While some crude prices have risen sharply, I expect that refined prices will follow soon, but only if inventories of refined products are affected. The truth being that, as some crude oil supply has been hit, consumers may also be at risk in the coming days as supply cannot meet demand in the major refining areas-and it is summer, the time of greatest gasoline demand.”


For more information, contact:

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Price changes for Thursday, June 21st, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for price changes for this Thursday:

*Heating and stove oils to drop by 2/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel to drop by 2/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline to drop by 7/10ths of a cent a litre.

Market highlights

Canadian dollar keeps slipping

The Canadian dollar lost almost three cents against the U.S greenback as Trump’s tariffs on this country weighed on our currency.

     That, higher interest rates and a strong U.S unemployment number of 3.8 percent reported last week has thrown strength behind the U.S greenback raising it to levels against our currency not seen in a few years. The fall of the dollar has cost consumers about 2.5 cents at the pumps this week alone.

OPEC meeting June 22nd on production cuts

Both OPEC and non-OPEC members will meet in Vienna, Austria to discuss the return to the markets a 1.8 million barrel a day cut to production that was meant to erase a perceived glut in oil stocks.

      OPEC now wants to add in their end of cuts amounting to 1.2 million barrels first announced in November of 2015. Russia and Azerbaijan also added to the overall production cut by adding 600,000 barrels to the move.

      But some member nations of OPEC aren’t so hasty in adding the full 1.2 million. Some are seeking an addition of between 300,000 barrels and 600,000 barrels as a more positive move to support oil, while Saudi Arabia worries about the loss of Venezuelan production as a need to add the full 1.2 OPEC end of production.

      The ‘back and forth’ over what the actual addition will be has added both up and down volatility to the oil markets this past week.

      We’ll find out on Friday what they will do.

U.S inventory report

U.S domestic production increased by another 100,000 barrels a day to hit 10.9 million barrels a day as higher prices have led to new rigs back in the oil patch.

      U.S crude oil saw a drop in supplies by 4.1 million barrels and gasoline also dropped by 2.1 million barrels as consumers started buying again as prices fell at the pumps.

      Refiner capacity was gauged at 95.7 percentage points as refiners saw good margins.

That’s it for this week!

Regards to all,

George Murphy

Twitter: GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Price changes for Thursday, June 14th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils to drop by 6/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel to drop by 8/10ths of a cent, and...

*Gasoline shows another drop of 1.4 cents a litre.

Prices to drop across the board

“Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia should see a rarity in the world of oil prices and refined products: a third week in a row of dropping prices.”

     That’s from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair gas prices.

    “U.S inventories reported last Wednesday, the first day of the pricing session, showed what appears to be the impact of higher prices on consumers in the form of building gasoline inventories as consumers conserve as a result of high prices. We’re optimistic that prices will keep dropping, but consumers will eventually get used to a high price and turn back to buying again. I’m hoping that they will continue to impact inventories by going light on the gas pedal!”

       “It’s what I like to call ‘enforced conservation’, where consumers revolt for a short period of time as prices for refined product become unaffordable.”

        As reported by the U.S Energy Information Administration, gasoline inventories climbed an unexpected 4.6 million barrels, while crude oil also climbed by 2.1 million barrels as domestic production also hit 10.8 million barrels a day in the U.S.

        Distillate fuels also reported increases of 2.2 million barrels, a fuel group that includes heating oil, stove oils and Diesel fuel.

       U.S domestic production of crude oil hit 10.8 million barrels in the data last week.


That’s it for this week!


George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, June 05, 2018

Price changes for Thursday, June 7th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating, stove and Diesel fuel all predicted to drop by 1.9 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to drop by two cents a litre.

Market highlights

OPEC to meet June 22nd

OPEC and non-OPEC producers will meet towards the end of the month to discuss formally increasing production back to more “normal” production levels.

     OPEC and non-OPEC producers met in November 2015 and agreed to institute a production cut that added up to 1.8 million barrels a day in an effort to absorb a glut in world oil estimated to be close to 3 billion barrels of supply. The move to cut production, OPEC believes, has worked to “return the market to balance” and now they want to add production to prevent oil prices rising past the $70 U.S a barrel mark in an effort to keep other producers, particularly shale producers from entering the market.

     Because of political turmoil in Venezuela, production has dropped to 1.4 million barrels a day from a recorded high of 3 million barrels a day in 1997 to today’s 1.4 million barrels a day. OPEC also wants to meet the shortfall in production there and Nigeria in order to “control rising prices”.

Market watching

*U.S EIA inventory report for Wednesday. Watch for signs of building crude as more domestic production is added. Second factor worth watching as a signal of consumer sentiment will be gasoline inventory numbers. As prices have risen, we’ll get a better sense of consumers’ feelings on prices at the pump. A build in inventory will send a strong signal that consumers are reigning back on consumption and could signal further signals that prices will retreat.

*Baker Hughes Friday rig count: If the number of rigs increase, it will signal new entrants into the oil patch, sending further signals of growing U.S domestic production.

*OPEC monthly production: Any signals that OPEC production may have already been signaled to members could have been detected in May total sales. If not, a robust growth in production should be picked up in the next report during the first week of July for June month.

That’s it for this week!


George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil