Wednesday, September 20, 2006
WELCOME TO THE WORLD OF UNDER A BUCK GASOLINE
Hi to all...
Just to let you all know that I have the numbers that alow for downwards movement of fuels I am tracking. Interruption criteria calls for an average of 3.5 cents a litre-up or down-movement over a five day period.
Heating oil shows a downwards movement by 3.96 cents a litre which should also be the same for stove oils.
Gasoline shows a 3.52 cent a litre over the last five days-downwards- and that means, if my numbers are right, gasoline will come down by 3.43 cents a litre plus taxes (3.9 or 4.0 cents a litre).
Heating/stove oils showed interruption as of yesterday and pricing should be adjusted down to the consumer as of 12:01A.M this coming Saturday, September 23/06. Good builds of inventory the last couple of weeks has figured well into downwards drops in spot pricing and we're hopeful that this will continue and not factor into high winter pricing.
Heating/stove oil spots are now 13 cents a litre below last years levels. What a turnaround!
Gasoline shows that pricing will be adjusted down as of Sunday morning, September 24/06 by the 3.9 or 4.0 cent a litre figure. Gasoline spots are now 12 cents below the same day for last year as well. No hurricanes, good inventories in the aftermath of the summer driving season and a somewhat stable international political situation are keeping things down-for now.
While my number is within the confines of my margin for error of 3/10ths of a cent, adjustment may not occur that morning but on Monday morning. That's because gasoline traded down again today by 4 cents US per gallon which brings the margin for error in line with what's happening out there in the markets.
Certainly, by Monday morning, gasoline will be down in the 98 cents a litre bracket.
Mind you, the companies don't have to wait for official word from the Public Utilities Board! We dare someone to "go for market share" in the interim. The Petroleum Pricing Office sets a maximum allowable and companies are free to charge below the regulated maximum if they "so wish".
Let's see what they do.
Regards for now,
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Thursday, September 14, 2006
International Atomic Energy Agency cracks Bush...
Look for Oil Pricing to Drop Further...
Seems that George Bush and his cronies at the Huse and Senate Intelligence Committee will be eating crow for the next couple of weeks,or until they can find another reason to poke a warlike stick at Iran. He should never have started to rub the bottle-poor George!
According to a story on CNN tonight, the United Nations world energy watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency wrote to George's crowd and scolded them for a dishonest case against Iran's nuclear intentions calling their findings "outrageous and dishonest".
George?...Lie?...Naw!...say it ain't so!...
According to the report, the IAEA wrote to the Chair of the House Intelligence Committee who claimed that Iran's nuclear program of enriching uranium was meant for nuclear weapons. The Committee had been claiming that Iran was using it's enrichment program for the sole purpose of nuclear weapons manufacture. Iran is far from the possibility according to the IAEA.
Look for the possibility of further downwards movement in crude, gasoline and heating oil pricing on the news.
Looks like Big Oil might take the kick on this one as well as the oil-rich Bush family. Let's hope that the United Nations can turn this one back on them all!
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
Numbers confirmed...Heating,Stove and Gasoline to Drop...
They say that "When you're in Rome, do as the Romans do..." That being the case, my numbers are already indicating a drop at the pump and heating truck level to come to Newfoundland and Labrador cnsumers as early as September 15th 12:01 A.M.
There's not a lot of rocket science to the fact that,if I have the numbers then, they must have them too.
Numbers show that heating/stove oil pricing will drop back another 4.41 cents a litre while gasoline will drop back by 5.3 cents a litre.Why are they waiting?
Thankfully, because spots on heating and stove oils dropped again this month, we're now at a situation where we are almost 5 cents a litre below last years levels. I'm not saying that we're out of the woods on the heating pricing issue for the winter though.
Far from it because, in essence, we got lucky as consumers....
We're in a bit of a "null" now where ,traditionally, we have seen heating and stove oil pricing begin to increase in price, to peak sometime in February.The last time I saw pricing drop back in this manner was in the aftermath of the September 11th attacks when airline traffic went to crap and distillate inventory rose as a result.
With a very contentious situation with Iran and the European Union negotiations over Iran's nuclear program still going, any turnabout in negotiations may very well leave Iran using it's 4.5 million barrel per day oil production capacity as a weapon against the west in the event of a series of economic sanctions placed on it by the United Nations.They may not shut off the spigots but, they can very well turn back output and that's enough to reverse the downwards trend in heating oil pricing we're witness to right now.
Guess we have to take another "wait and see" attitude before we're free and clear for the winter season.
Keep the blankets handy though...
Friday, September 08, 2006
Prices Pointing Down...Hold off at the Pumps...
and the Heating Oil Truck too...
Just to let you all know in Atlantic Canada as well as Newfoundland and Labrador that I am tracking a decent drop in fuel pricing to come to the consumer over the coming days.
Nova Scotia and New Brunswick consumers should be looking at a decrease anywhere around 2 to 3 cents at the pumps while, on the 15th here on the Rock, we could see anywhere around 6 cents a litre-IF things keep up.
The last couple of days have been steadily down and that is also reflected at the heating oil level. Heating oils are down by about three cents a litre as of the 6th and, I'm hoping that will keep down until the last business days leading up to the 11th.
More on the 12th as regards to what we'll be seeing then...
Tuesday, September 05, 2006
Another Hurricane This way Comes...
A look at the National Hurricane Center's website might give one pause for concern, certainly if you reside anywhere where the storm may land.
I tend to observe what they do to the oil markets at times like this.Lucky for all of us consumers out there, this one isn't headed for the Gulf of Mexico. I am waiting for the excuse come Wednesday next week where the Energy Information Administration might say something like "Imports of crude oil were disrupted last week as a result of the storms on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts."
Interesting as it is, a storm like this one entered into the Gulf of Mexico twice last year and we all payed for it, not that it was necessary mind you. In the after-effects of Katrina and Rita last year, prices spiked to the highest since the Arab oil embargo of the 1970's. Back then, lineups at the pumps were a common sight and with Rita's promise of "damage" we lined up ourselves again. The traders in the oil exchnges also lined up, but for a different reason. They all collected the highest commissions that were earned off our backsides.
We paid for it...
While there was damage to oil infrastructure, inventories didn't dry up, the US government loaned "Big Oil" some of it's strategic reserve and an "imagined" shortfall never happened.
Just to let you oil traders and oil companies know; that your policies of putting oil infrastructure in dangerous places and speculating on the damage that can be caused, is not going un-noticed by the consumer out there and "we are on our toes" looking out for that next excuse you'll be using to reap from the consumer field.
Justified you might say?
I think not...
What have we learned from all this?...
We've learned that "Big Oil" will fall back on any excuse in a co-ordinated attack against our wallets, that "Big Oil" expects us not to re-act, that we had better watch the weather and don't buy property in Florida.
Saturday, September 02, 2006
Drop in Heating and Stove Oils Coming...
Just to let you all know that I have the numbers that show for interruption of heating and stove oil pricing here in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Heating and stove oil prices should drop as of Tuesday morning,September 05/06 by some 2.59 cents a litre. If present spot pricing continues, we may even see another slight downwards move in pricing come the 15th.
While not a big lot, this drop comes at the end of the summer driving season when, traditionally, we see prices drop back at the start of the summer season. That didn't happen until today.
Too many international factors exist that are not allowing me to change my forcast for almost 90 cents a litre at peak this coming winter. Factors like continuing Middle East unrest, the Iraq war, Nigeria and the possibility that Iran could use oil as an economic weapon in it's quest to continue with it's nuclear program all are making for an uncertain market.
What may help me change my mind?
A drop in distillate demand like diesels because of an economic slowdown, drop in jet fuel demand or excellent builds in heating oil inventories. Maybe even a little devine intervention here?
It's awfully late for the drop to happen as it is but, we'll take it.