Follow by Email

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Price changes for Thursday, November 26, 2015

 Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this week's price changes, keeping in mind winter fuel blending that may affect numbers for heating oil and Diesel fuels.
 
Heating oil shows a drop of 1.9 cents a litre.
Stove oils also point down 1.9 cents a litre.
Diesel shows a drop of a penny, and...
Gasoline shows an increase of 1.4 cents a litre.
 
Consumers may get hit next week
 
"While some prices show upwards movement, it may really be next week that we may see a substantial hit at the pumps because of today's Middle East action, and even then, it's really a test of a different market." That's according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
 
"While distillate fuels are pointing down, all this week showed speculators pouring money into gasoline because that's the only place that is showing any signs of demand placed on it. The actions in Turkey today showed that, while there's plenty of crude oil out there, any Middle East action could be mitigated by other sources that can play into the markets. There's a huge oversupply out there, combined with the ability for the US domestic market to respond to any potential problems. We have a different market reality out there. I expected today's incident to play out in the markets heavier than it did.
 
"Today showed no 'huge' increase in oil, although it did rise another $1.20 US on the up-tick in the Middle East. It was an up-tick in refined commodities that is rearing its head. Gasoline spots rose another two cents a litre on Turkey speculation, and if it holds for the rest of this business week, we could see consumers get dinged a few more pennies next week as a result. We'll have to let the markets play out to confirm that."
 
-30-
 
For more information, contact;
 
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Price changes for Thursday, November 19, 2015

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this week's price changes. Again, keep in mind that heating oil and diesel fuels are affected by the winter blending of fuels and may be off somewhat with the addition of jet fuel to the mix:

Heating oil shows a drop of 3.6 cents a litre.
Stove oil shows a drop of 3.6 cents as well.
Diesel fuel shows a drop of 3.3 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline points down 4.7 cents  a litre.



Consumers to see a drop to all fuel prices this week
 
Consumers will see substantial drops to all fuel prices this week as inventory data shows continued strong builds of oil inventories and weak demand for refined commodities like heating oil and gasoline. That's the word from George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.
 
"Numbers over the last week, especially since the Energy Information Administration released the latest inventory data on Wednesday, have been pointing down, and it doesn't appear that the numbers are going to get any better for those seeking higher prices," Murphy said. When you see some refineries coming back online from winter maintenance, and those refiners holding back on putting some stocks through for refining, you know there's going to be blow-back, in this case for the consumer. It appears that this is what happened over the last week, and that trend just might continue.
 
"Markets are also showing signs of a possible price war between some OPEC members that has been brewing since Iran signed on to a deal that will result in the lifting of sanctions this December. Previously, it was known that Iran would notify member nations of OPEC when it was ready to come back to higher production, but buried deep in the news was a quote from Iran stating 'The drop in prices won't be a concern for us. It will be a concern for those who replaced Iran'. I take that as meaning there's going to be payback for member nations and producers who stepped in to take up the oil deficit when sanctions were first placed on Iran years ago. Fellow OPEC members are on notice now. It's going to be worth watching how OPEC handles the situation of Iran's extra production of oil that chiefly goes to European customers. Brent prices may fall lower as a result.
 
"It's going to make a lot of speculators wonder again just where the bottom for oil prices really is. Here's hoping that consumers can see a positive benefit to that."
 
(30)
 
For more information, contact;
 
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Price changes for Thursday, November 12, 2015

Here's what I have for this week's price changes, keeping in mind that winter blending affects the outcome of numbers for heating oil and diesel fuel because of the addition of jet fuel to their various mixes.

Heating oil shows no change in price.
Stove oil also shows no change in price.
Diesel fuel shows a drop of 3/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
Gasoline shows an increase of 7/10ths of a cent a litre.


Some prices to remain steady this week: Murphy
 
Consumers won't see much in the way of price changes this week as the markets remained relatively steady in trading. That's according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices. As a matter of fact, for some fuels, there won't be any changes.
 
"While West Texas Intermediate saw some retreat in its barrel price, and Brent prices followed WTI down, refined commodity prices remained overall steady as well for the most part, with the exception being a very moderate increase to gasoline spot prices. New York mercantile pricing showed gasoline rising from an average 49.6 cents a litre to 50.3 cents a litre over the last week. This means a slight upwards adjustment maybe seen for gasoline prices to consumers by a slim margin of 7/10ths of a cent based on that activity", Murphy said.
 
"Refineries ran at close to 89 percentage points, a modest increase, but shows refineries are coming back online from winter maintenance schedules. Close on 660,000 barrels a day production remains offline due to that. While there was an addition to crude oil inventories last week, a draw from US gasoline inventories is a sign indicative of lower inputs to refineries as a way to support prices to consumers at the pump. That's a finger pointing at the industry controlling how much gasoline is actually coming into inventories. Why produce a product if no one is buying?
 
"While the International Energy Agency has put the word out on a possible recovery in oil prices, I don't see anywhere in their prediction the fact of how responsive US oil producers can come back online and actually keep that supposed recovery from actually happening. Important to note here is that factor. Far beyond anyone's expectations, the US reached a high of 9.6 million barrels a day almost overnight by oil industry standards. They keep forgetting that producers will respond quite readily to any increase in oil prices to attempt to gain their lost market-share back. I still think it's going to be a while beyond 2020 before we see steady oil at $80 US. Almost 4700 wells ready-made to produce oil stateside is saying so."
 
(30)
 
For more information, contact;
 
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, November 03, 2015

Price changes for Thursday, November 5th, 2015

Good evening!

Final numbers are in and they still show more of an increase than yesterday's alert, so please forward to all your friends!

Here's what I have for this week's price changes, keeping in mind the winter heating and diesel fuel blends that may show off a little on accuracy!

Heating oil shows an increase of 1.4 cents a litre.
Stove oil also shows an increase of 1.4 cents.
Diesel fuel shows an increase of 2.3 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows an added 3.3 cents a litre.

Rise in crude oil pushes up prices for consumers and refined products
 
"There's good news in rising crude oil prices for some out there, but consumers aren't going to enjoy an upwards adjustment to prices for the refined products this week when the PUB releases the numbers Wednesday at midnight!" That's according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

"Over the past week, I've seen a rough $4 US increase to both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crudes that I track. What's upsetting here is that refined commodity prices have risen sharply along with them, showing consumers will be getting hit along the way," Murphy said. "Consumers will notice the increased price of gasoline and Diesel fuels this week.

Market news
"The news from the markets doesn't seem to show any justification for the increase in refined products. Refineries are coming back online, with the latest figures showing a mere 800K barrels of refining capacity now offline with winter maintenance. With almost a million barrels per day back online, you should see at least that much gasoline being added to inventories. Demand still remains down, and speculators are betting on an increase in crude oil products when the Energy Information Administration releases the latest data 12 noon, Newfoundland time.

OPEC itself shows no signs of cutting back with the member nations producing 32.2 million barrels a day in October. Russian production also increased last month to 10.8 million barrels a day. There's no sign of a drop in worldwide production, so why are crude oil prices rising? Iran is also set to add more to the markets with the country making a formal announcement December 4th, that they will be making a boost in production. Some are saying that Iran will add an immediate 700,000 barrels to the daily market from their present 2.7 million in October, with at least 40 million barrels in what is known as "floating storage".

Refining shows best profit in years
News from the markets also is showing why it is good to be a refiner these days, and may reflect on how well our own North Atlantic refinery may be performing. Latest figure I have works out to a profit of a rough $16 Canadian a barrel. That's about $1.68 million per day out of Placentia Bay, based on the latest figures I was able to acquire from the southern US refiner. But let there be no mistake why a truly integrated oil company is making money now, as well as refiners: Crude acquisition costs are well down with the crash in oil, and it's there that they've been making some good dollars!

(30)
For more information, contact;

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA