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Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Price changes for Thursday, June 27th, 2019


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes. Sorry it’s so late, but I’m just home from a late night at work!



*Heating and stove oils to increase by 2.4 cents a litre.

*Diesel to increase by 2.6 cents a litre,  and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of 3.8 cents a litre.



Market highlights



US-Iran tensions play out

What started as attacks against two tankers last week has expanded to a shootdown of a US drone allegedly in Iranian airspace that threatens to expand into a full-out conflict. Oil rose the past week as fears of a supply disruption of anything leaving through the Straits of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.

     Things seemed to ease a little just yesterday as President Trump seemed to downplay the threat and shootdown of a US military drone as being from someone not acting on the part of the Iranian government.



US-China trade and tariff talks

Market traders seemed upbeat the last few days after word leaked that the US sent negotiating teams ahead of Donald Trumps meeting with China’s Xi Jinping, president of the Asian country, in the hope that common ground could be found in bringing an end to the tariff dispute between the two major economic powers.

    Both leaders will hopefully meet at the G20 meeting later this week to have direct talks to alleviate the dispute.

     Any positive outcome will support and likely raise further, the price of oil as anticipated demand will pick up.



Philadelphia refinery fire

A fire at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions plant has taken 200,000 barrels of production out of a total of 335,000 barrel a day refinery in the U.S northeast.

     While initially thought to be critical, the stock of gasoline and production at the refinery will be replaced with product through the U.S Colonial Pipeline system, bringing in any shortfall of supplies to market.

     It is estimated that it may take upwards of two years to have the refinery back to full production as the fire destroyed a chunk of available overall production.

     While gasoline prices initially made strong upwards moves, prices have since stabilized.



That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Price changes for Thursday, June 20th, 2019


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:



*Heating and stove oils to increase by 4/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel to increase by 3/10ths of a cent, and...

*Gasoline to decrease by 3/10ths of a cent a litre.



Market highlights



US inventories up again

US inventories of crude oil were up again this past week for the fourth week in a row, continuing speculation that there could soon be another oversupply of crude building in the markets.

     In spite of cuts to production from Iran, Venezuela and other OPEC and non-OPEC production, prices have continued to fall in the face of a possible world economic slowdown.

     Crude oil showed an extra 2.2 million barrels over the week previous and Gasoline supply was also up another 800,000 barrels.

     Refiner capacity was reported at 93.2 percent, up another two points over the previous week.



Oil rises on tanker attacks

Speculation that Iran was behind two attacks against oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman last week also saw oil rise as speculators see the attacks as a threat to overall world supplies if the attacks continue.

     The two tankers in question were under Japanese and Norwegian ownership, but no connection has been made between that, and the fact that Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is the chief negotiator trying to get Iran and the United States back to the negotiation table.



US-China talks on again?

Oil rose sharply over the last two days, partially motivated on word that “tariff talks” are on again in the hope of avoiding a trade war that could hurt Chinese demand for crude oil as well as damage the world economy.

     No date has been given for the expiration of this round of talks that will start ahead of a scheduled G20 meeting next week.

     Both countries negotiators are meeting ahead of that to try to hammer out a deal on tariffs before Trump meets with President Xi Jinping of China at the G20.



That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Price changes for Thursday, June 6th, 2019


Hi to all,



Here’s what I have for price changes in what has proven to be a very volatile week:



*Heating and stove oils to drop by 5.7 cents a litre.

*Diesel to drop by 5.4 cents a litre.

*Gasoline to drop by 5.4 cents a litre.



Market highlights



Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs...

While the long-standing tariff dispute carries on with a quickly approaching deadline for any agreement to settle the argument, the US has also turned to the tariff mechanism as a diplomatic weapon to use against its southern neighbour, Mexico.

     In fact, what Trump has done is cause more world economic worries to add to an already unsteady situation.

     The Trump administration was out this week announcing the use of tariffs to get Mexico to deal with the US immigration issue. For years, illegal immigrants have used the US-Mexico border area as a gateway to the US, and the US wants it to stop, placing several industries there and in Canada, under threat. Oil went lower again as a result.

      Again this past week, the ongoing tariff dispute played downwards on oil prices as time has been ticking away toward the deadline for resolution of the dispute.

      The U.S is promising more tariffs, but China is responding with an economic weapon of it’s own, next to the further imposition of tariffs on US goods. They’re also promising added difficulties in getting rare earth minerals from China to the world markets, promising a technology war at the same time.



US inventories weigh



US inventories showed a build in gasoline last week with the raw liquid adding 2.2 million barrels to supplies, while oil stayed relatively steady, dropping 300K barrels. But the real news may have been with US domestic figures which showed another 100K barrel a day expansion in production with the US now hitting 12.3 million barrels a day.

     Refiner capacity was up to 91.2 percent, but gasoline still showed a build in inventory in spite of the total product supplied.



That’s it for this week!



Regards,



George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil