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Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Not much change, but the numbers are down

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, June 29, 2010- The numbers are pointing down. Not by a great deal, but enough that there won’t be a price increase this week, in spite of the market activity last week. That’s from George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

‘I watched the markets closely last week and noticed the glee that must have been on investors eyes when word came of tropical storm Alex’s formation and track into the Gulf of Mexico region, and that put upwards pressure on oil and it’s related and refined commodities,” said Murphy. “But then I saw the downside the past two days when the markets started telling the true story of a stall in any world economy out there. It’s like I’ve been saying all along, that this market recovery is artificial and is boundless. That message has played in on oil prices again.

“Heating and stove oils show a decrease of 42/100ths of a cent, diesel down by a half cent and gasoline shows a drop of just three tenths of a cent. It may not be a big lot, but it may also be indicative of what’s to come next week.

“As of today, it seems that oil and its related commodities have begun another precipitous slide in price. I don’t know how long the message has to be out there before investors and governments finally get it that the world needs cheaper oil to aid any economic recovery efforts and prevent any hindrance to consumer spending. The world economy will not recover fully based on oil anywhere over OPEC’s old 2005 targets, or at prices for refined commodities that consumers and business can no longer afford. That’s the story that is being told in the world markets right now; that Big Oil has killed any prospect of immediate economic recovery happening. The real story of ‘invest in oil’ seems to have reverted to ‘divest from oil.’”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices


By the way. The budget was based on $83 US a barrel WTI.
I don't know where they got the forecast, but they didn't ask me.
Numbers so far:
March/10:$81.14 US
April/10: $84.82 US
May/10: $74.18 US
June/10: $75.33 US
Can you say "deficit"?

Friday, June 25, 2010

Welcome Hurricane Syndrome season!
Blowhard investors smiling on the news

Day one of investors rubbing their hands together in eager anticipation is off to a good start as today's NOAA forecast calls for the possible formation of the seasons first gulf storm that "may enter" the Gulf of Mexico.

Oil, of course, is well up on the news and investors have been given something to smile about with oil prices for the last few days.

No word from Confederation Building, where news of oil below $83 bucks US a barrel had some people in panic, considering this years budget estimates.

Oil itself, while still below the finance departments forecast, is on the rise with the news of the possible disruption in oil production in the Gulf of Mexico that has yet to happen, and that's the problem that everyone concerned with economic recovery should have.

Possible disruption...

That's your money that some of these investors and speculators are playing with...

We'll be in touch if this "blow" by investors ends up resulting in increased prices to your pockets.

Regards,

George

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Numbers are up.
So will prices this Thursday

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, June 22, 2010- Consumers can expect to see some upwards adjustments to fuel prices this coming Thursday when the PUB moves to make the next pricing adjustment. That’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“A three dollar movement upwards in the price of crude oil along with related, refined commodities has resulted in the numbers I have for this week. I expect heating and stove oils to increase by 2.46 cents per litre, diesel to increase by 2.4 cents per litre and gasoline to increase by 2.0 cents per litre,” said Murphy.

“This past week of market activity saw investors turn back to the Euro somewhat and that resulted in an increase in crude oil prices. An investment in the Euro by investor was seen as a sign that there’s ma turn-around in the fortunes of the markets, even though I still haven’t seen a clear indication that the austerity programming by some of the troubled Euro nations is working. It will be a while before we see that. To add to that, there was some comment about the debt-load carried by the United States that saw some investors withdraw from that currency.

“Even tough crude oil showed an increase in inventory last week, there was a slight draw against overall gasoline stocks that got some investors thinking positive about consumer demand increasing. I still believe counter to what I’ve heard out there. I don’t believe that the US consumer is quite ready to spend with more unemployed reported for last week’s measurement and there’s still a lack of evidence out there that consumers have an increased faith in a recovering economy worldwide. There’s also still plenty of skepticism out there about the world fiscal reality that has yet to play into the markets. What we see here is not reflecting the reality of the world markets as they should be right now.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Just a note for today...

I'll be back with all the numbers later tonight, but for now, it looks like all fuels I measure will be on the increase this coming Thursday.

Here's what I have so far, six days out of seven days of data:
  • Heating and stove oils show 2.57 cents a litre up.
  • Diesel shows an added 2.5 cents up, and...
  • Gasoline shows an added 2.4 cents a litre up.

That's it for now!

George

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Numbers up slightly
Crude oil increases and so do prices

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, June 15, 2010- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see a slight upwards adjustment to most fuel prices this coming Thursday. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Numbers show slight upwards movement with the exception of diesel, which shows a modest 1/10th of a cent drop coming this Thursday,” said Murphy. “I expect heating and stove oils to increase by 1.28 cents a litre and gasoline to increase by a penny on a litre. That’s not out of line with what has been happening on the markets. Oil prices have increased by seven bucks a barrel US over the past two weeks. In spite of that increase in crude prices, we’ve seen but two cents on gasoline prices, mainly due to the corresponding increase in the Canadian dollar against its US dollar counterpart.

Crude slowly climbing, but for how long
Oil is increasing as a result of a corresponding increase in the Euro, which has gained close on four cents against the US dollar. That makes commodities like oil and refined products a little more attractive to investors. In order to see oil drop again now we have to see several factors come into play, and I’m still expecting them to kick in. Among them, look for news from the European Union from member countries like Greece and Spain; show their ability to keep ahead of their payments against their debt while carrying out their austerity programming. Also, the economic damage being caused by the oil spill in the gulf could potentially play a key factor in any ongoing US economic recovery efforts.

Average crude oil prices are down overall
“While crude oil may be rising, the numbers are still well down from what was projected in the last provincial budget and that must be taking a huge bite out of the province’s treasury. The losses in royalties, combined with a drop in the collection of taxes on fuels have conspired to impact the provinces take from high energy prices. It may be a break for the consumer but the province had better hope oil increases well past the $83 US for West Texas Intermediate projected for the next few months if it hopes to meet its fiscal targets.

Numbers so far

Here’s a breakdown of what I have for average oil prices so far this fiscal year:

April, 2010: $84.82 WTI
May, 2010 : $72.54 WTI
June, 2010 : $73.41 WTI

Numbers are within summer ranges
“The numbers at the pumps still remain close to the summer peak projection of anywhere between $1.10 and $1.14 cents for a litre of gasoline. Barring any other significant factors like OPEC cuts or hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, I expect the projected summer numbers to be close to those projected a few months back. I don’t expect the oil spill in the Gulf to affect prices. If there is a disruption, it will be with imports into the Gulf region and there are other ways of piping oil from one side of the US to the other, the same events that occurred after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. It’s steady as she goes, for now.”

-30-

For more information, contact:

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member

Tuesday, June 08, 2010

Not much change in the numbers

Hi to all..

Here's the expected price changes I have for this Thursday's price change.

As you can see, there's not much in the numbers and with my margin for error, there may in fact be no expected changes for both gasoline and diesel numbers.

***Heating and stove oils to drop by 48/100ths of a cent.
***Diesel shows a drop of 3/10ths of a cent, and...
***Gasoline shows an added 1/10th of a cent.

Yup...Numbers are that close...


That's it for now!

Regards,

George Murphy

Monday, June 07, 2010

Not much movement this week

I guess that last weeks rise in oil prices got everyone thinking. I know it did with me, especially when the data didn't match the outcome. A build in inventories of crude ended up increasing crude oil prices, that's the one I couldn't figure out...lol

Then Friday came, and we were back to the market reality of a possible double-dip recession and more financial worries in another Euro nation country, Hungary.

Doesn't rain, but it pours, to match today's weather, I guess!

Anyways, here's what I have with six days data out of seven for this regulation period:
  • Heating and stove oils are down by 45/100ths of a cent.
  • Diesel is down by 3/10ths, and...
  • Gasoline is up by 1/10th.

Pretty steady numbers.

I'll be back with the final outcome of what to expect sometime tomorrow evening, but don't expect big changes in the interim with what I have here so far.

Regards,

George

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Numbers are up for the week
Slight increases in pricing on the way Thursday


Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, June 1, 2010 – Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will experience something with fuel prices that they haven’t seen in a month, an increase in prices for Thursday morning. That’s from George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

What to expect this Thursday
“There was some recovery in the price of crude last week that also saw refined commodity prices recover some. Consumers will see a small hit that I don’t expect will last long. Heating and stove oil prices are expected to increase by 1.90/Lt, while diesel is expected to increase by the same. Gasoline prices will increase by 1.3/Lt,” said Murphy.

Why numbers are up
“It was ironic that China figured into the equation last week. The Chinese stepped into the fray over the European Union fiscal crisis and said that the “Greek debt-load was manageable”. That sent investors back to commodities and away from the US dollar. It was ironic that the communist country was able to stymie the economy of some democratic countries. Rather ironic as well as the communist country is in dire need of currency reform themselves. Never the less, investors took a chance and sent oil upwards again, all in spite of the build in crude inventories last week.”

What to expect this week with oil
“Even though numbers may have been up this last week, I expect oil prices to decline again if oil builds further inventories again this week. There seems to be some confusion about economic recovery and the spottiness of it worldwide seems to be playing a factor in oil’s price volatility. I’ve seen some wild swings in pricing in a twenty four hour period! All this is casting doubt on upwards pressures on oil and I expect oil to decline further as a result. There’s still instability in the markets, and while that’s there, consumers should see current pricing for the time being, keeping in mind that anything can change market conditions overnight, including the Hurricane Syndrome season we’ve just entered.”

-30-

For more information, contact:

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
So far, the numbers are up

I'll be back with a final run-down on what to expect tomorrow night, but so far the word on fuel pricing is "up" for this Thursday morning.

Here's what I have so far this pricing session:
  • Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.05 cents per litre.
  • Diesel shows an added 2.1 cents. and...
  • Gasoline shows an added 1.4 cents a litre.

Not surprisingly, the latest round of increases to crude oil pricing has resulted in Big Oil "taking back" some of what was lost the last month.

drop in tomorrow night!

Regards,

George