Numbers for Thursday, October 15, 2013

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for Thursday’s price changes:

·         Heating and stove oils to increase by 1.17 cents a litre.

·         Diesel to increase by 1.4 cents a litre, and…

·         Gasoline to increase by 2.5 cents a litre.

·         Keep in mind that my heating and diesel numbers may be off slightly with the advent of the winter heating blend which includes 75% jet fuel in the mix. I hope to have the jet numbers worked into the mix by next week.

Market highlights

·         The clock is ticking towards the US debt ceiling. Some international credit agencies are now warning of a possible downgrade in US credit ratings as a result of the debt ceiling dispute. The debt ceiling dispute promises to disrupt the US economy if it fails to raise the ceiling debt-load.

·         Bloomberg has put a story up that says to expect Brent crude prices to drop below $100 if sanctions against Iran are lifted. Currently, there are ongoing discussions over exposure of Iran’s nuclear program, which is how initial sanctions ended up being placed against the Middle Eastern country. If sanctions are lifted, it could add almost 3.5 million barrels a day into the world system.

·         The United States Energy Information Administration has also been a victim of the stand-down between the Democrats and Republicans over Obamacare. While the Republicans are looking for concessions in the filibuster, Obama is not bending to their demands, which has cut off government salaries in the process. As a result, there is no inventory data being released, leaving lots of volatility in the oil and gas markets, not to mention some wiggle room for speculators to maneuver.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Numbers for Thursday, October 10/13

Numbers for Thursday:

Heating and stove oils up by 1.18 cents a litre with Diesel showing an added 9/10ths of a cent on a litre.

Gasoline shows a very modest drop of just a half cent on a litre.

As the numbers show, oil stayed relatively steady over the last week, in spite of the US government shutdown. It was anticipated that off-work government workers and a drop in spending would affect the oil markets, but it certainly hasn't shown itself yet.

We'll see what happens for next week.

George

Twitter: @georgemurphymha 

Price changes for Thursday, October 3rd, 2013

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for Thursday’s price change:

·         Heating and stove oils show no change to prices.

·         Diesel shows just 2/10ths of a cent down.

·         Gasoline shows a small dip of 6/10ths of a cent a litre.

Market highlights

·         US government shutdown last night has no effect on this week’s numbers, but an extended shutdown will most affect prices downwards starting as early as next week.

·         Bloomberg predicts an increase of 2.5 million barrels this week with a total refinery utilization of 89.5%

·         Thaw in US/Iran relations drives oil prices downwards. Iran sanctions will add oil capacity to the markets if sanctions are lifted. Contingent on Iran stopping its nuclear program.

·         Survival of Come by Chance refinery contingent on lower prices for low gravity crude. If prices drop for heavy crude, refinery stands a better chance of survival. Lower crude acquisition prices part of the problem of losses to the refinery’s bottom line. If we lose the refinery, lack of competition could mean higher prices for consumers in the province with having one refinery in Atlantic Canada being a source of supply.

That’s it for this week! Back on track I hope!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter: @georgemurphymha