Hi to all,
Here’s what I have
for this week’s price changes:
*Heating and stove
oil to increase by 6/10ths of a cent a litre.
*Diesel to increase
by 3/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an
increase of 1.5 cents a litre.
Market highlights
Oil prices up
As oil prices have
been going in recent months, any increase in oil prices is a celebration for
some speculators at a time when there hasn’t been much to celebrate.
Over the past week, oil prices have risen about $2 US a barrel as
speculators see hopeful signs that the US and China will see an end to
their trade and tariff dispute.
Stock
markets have been mostly in record territory again as traders see an increase
in demand for oil if trade barriers are lifted off China.
OPEC making moves
OPEC and non-OPEC
member oil producers continue to dwell on production cuts as Saudi Arabia is
said to be ready to do anything to support prices.
Already Saudi Arabia has made a preliminary move of checking on production
levels in OPEC member nations to make sure they have been complying to their
side of production cuts before they formally announce measures or further cuts
to production quotas
Old habits die hard as OPEC members have often been cheating on their own
quotas whenever they see a fiscal advantage as prices rise. In the meantime,
compliance was itself pretty good in recent months and talk amongst members and
non-OPEC members indicates some willingness to institute a further round of
cuts.
Just how much they will end up cutting remains open at this time.
US inventory data
The Energy
Information Administration released its weekly report Wednesday that showed a
1.7 million barrel drop in crude stocks as well as a draw in gasoline
inventories of 3.1 million barrels.
Distillate supplies also saw a draw of 2.7 million barrels.
Refiner capacity was recorded at 85.2 percent for the week as refiners
continued maintenance programs.
That’s it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter
@GeorgeMurphyOil
Hi to all,
Due to the fact
that I have not received data for Friday’s market numbers, numbers may be off
slightly from the actual that may occur. Here’s what I have for this week’s
price changes:
*Heating and stove
oil shows an increase of a half cent (5/10ths) a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows
an increase of 9/10ths of a cent per litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an
increase of 1.5 cents a litre.
Market highlights
US-China trade deal
The US and China
are reported to be close to an agreement on tariffs, but you’d hardly think
that was true according to oil’s performance the past few days.
Speculators are laying 50/50 odds of a signed agreement by the end of October
that may (or may not) return trade between the two world economic powers back
to something more normal.
Oil markets responded positively on Thursday moving higher as speculators
thought an increase in oil demand would result, but it didn’t last very long.
Chewing into details, speculators found that there wasn’t much detail and that
the four foundations of the trade war weren’t even touched. China also made no
mention of the agreement and still wants to see December tariffs removed before
they sign onto anything.
Iranian tanker
attacked
Iran has claimed
that one of its tankers was attacked by missiles on Friday that helped support
oil prices as tensions continued to weigh on oil markets.
However,
the attacks didn’t raise prices as much as feared, but still showed that Middle
East targets abound and risk premiums remain on crude oil anywhere from the
Middle East.
IEA makes a cut to
forecasted oil growth demand
Just last month the
US EIA made projections on lower demand and this past week seemed to be
“seconded” by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as they moved downwards
their forecast for any growth in demand by another 100,000 barrels a day from
an initial projected growth of 1.1 million barrels a day.
No doubt that the lower forecast signals lower demand due to world economic
conditions.
US inventories
The US Energy
Information Administration released inventory data again Wednesday that showed
another build in overall crude oil stocks.
Inventories of crude oil increased by 2.9 million barrels while gasoline stocks
dropped 1.2 million barrels as refiner capacity was measured at 85.7
percent for the week as some refineries remained closed for winter maintenance.
Distillate inventories dropped by 3.9 million barrels as colder weather
increased demand for heating product.
U.S domestic oil production was recorded at 12.6 million barrels last week, an
increase of 200,000 barrels.
That’s it for this
week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter
@GeorgeMurphyOil
Hi to all,
Here’s what I have
for this week’s price changes:
*Heating and stove
oil to drop by 1.2 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel to
drop by 1.3 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a
drop of 8/10ths of a cent per litre.
Market highlights
U.S-China talks
Speculators remain
skittish over the possibility of the U.S and China reaching a settlement in
their trade dispute when talks resume again on Thursday.
The U.S has blacklisted more Chinese companies from doing business within U.S
borders which may throw another wrench into things.
The 28 companies were blacklisted for alleged human rights violations. The week
previous was with optimism that a deal would be reached with Chinese officials
expressing remorse that a better deal couldn’t be reached, but they would sign
what was presented up to this point.
US EIA revises oil
price forecast lower
The United States
Energy Information Administration revised its Short term Energy Outlook (STEO)
lower from what was forecast just a month ago citing the world economy and a
strong building of world oil inventories as we get closer to 2020.
Brent prices were forecast to be $5 a barrel lower than the $63 U.S that was forecast
just in early September, with Brent dropping to $57 a barrel U.S in 2020. As
far as I can read in the report, it doesn’t take into account rising
geo-political risk such as that resulting in a production disruption in Saudi
Arabia three weeks ago.
U.S inventory
report
The latest report
shows more refinery facilities have shut down for annual winter maintenance as
refinery capacity was reported down to 86.4 percent.
Crude inventories gained as oil throughputs halted and stocks built as a
result.
Gasoline inventories dipped by 200,000 barrels while distillates dropped 2.4
million barrels.
U.S domestic production of crude dropped 100,000 barrels to sit at 12.4 million
barrels a day.
That’s it for this
week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter
@GeorgeMurphyOil
Hi to all,
Here’s what I have
for this week’s price changes:
*Heating and stove
oils to decrease by 2.6 cents a litre.
*Diesel to decrease
by 2.4 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a
drop of 1.6 cents a litre.
Market highlights
Saudi Arabia
recovery continues
Saudi Arabian oil
infrastructure continues to recover after attacks by drones and cruise missiles
took 5.7 million barrels a day of production capacity offline.
The
outages briefly took oil prices close to $70 US a barrel before retreating to
todays close below $60 US.
Refined prices also increased to consumers, but with this week’s drop in
prices, should come close to what they were previous to the attacks.
Saudi Arabia has announced that oil infrastructure will be ready for full
production again by the start of November, and indeed, some are reporting that
Aramco, the Saudi Arabian oil company has already reached pre-attack output of
9.9 million barrels a day.
But really...
Put this in the perspective of an attack against Saudi infrastructure twenty years ago.
With U.S domestic production of 5.8 million barrels a day then as compared to 12.5 million barrels a day just last week, it shouldn't be a wonder why oil prices never hit the roof. That, and the advent of other alternative energies that simply weren't "commercial enough" as what they are today, like solar and wind, have woken up some to the possibility that oil finally has competition.
If there's any warning there for "Big Oil" from this attack, it's simply that they had better find more secure fields in "secure and stable" countries if oil is to survive as viable. Price matters, and the fact that solar and wind potential exists worldwide simply has shown that an attack against Saudi infrastructure to raise oil prices simply won't do it. There was a lot more at stake with the speed of the repairs than just to bring oil back online.
A lot more could have been lost than just market share.
World reserves
In the event of
outages, it seems the world was prepared for the worst.
According to the International Energy Agency, world stocks of oil on government
oil reserves like the US strategic reserve, amounted to 1.5 billion barrels,
while private industrial-owned reserves totaled 2.5 billion barrels.
These amounts do not include pooled reserves and discovered fields that have
been left untapped, or facilities that have been shut down due to price or
oversupply.
There’s plenty out there!
U.S inventories
US crude oil
inventories posted another gain last week as the Energy Information
Administration said stocks increased by 2.4 million barrels.
Gasoline stocks gained 500,000 barrels while distillates dropped 300,000
barrels as colder weather prospects increased demand there and gasoline demand
tapered down.
Refinery capacity was recorded at 89.8 percent as refiners continued fall
maintenance programs.
That’s it for this
week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter
@GeorgeMurphyOil
