Price changes for Thursday, July 19th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils to drop by 2.6 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to drop by 2.7 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to drop by 1.4 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Saudi Arabia turns on the taps

A week ago it wasn’t thought possible that we would see a dramatic reversal in the markets as Saudi Arabia was found to have already broken it’s deal with fellow OPEC and non-OPEC producing nations. But according to last week’s production numbers, the Saud’s produced more oil onto the markets that helped send oil prices down.

     Saudi Arabia produced more than 10.7 million barrels a day in June month, according to figures released by OPEC, and all in spite of reaching an accord with other members to add just 600,000 barrels a day to the markets in an “effort” to prevent prices from rising. That news played into the markets through late last week.

     Also adding to the downwards pressure on prices was the news out of Libya that showed an uneasy peace agreement that would start exports from the African country amounting to 700,000 barrels a day, just shy of half its original production, a move that forced Brent prices lower.

Trump adds weight

Meanwhile, on this side of the world, Donald Trump talked about the possibility of releasing crude oil to the markets from the U.S strategic petroleum reserve, a move that some see as a quick attempt to get other OPEC members to fall in line with adding production. The reserve contains a rough 660 million barrels of oil held in the event of use during a national emergency.

     The idea weighed heavily on the markets this week as oil lost ground, WTI losing about $6 US over the past week and Brent dropping by close on $7 US.

U.S inventory report largely ignored

In spite of a U.S Energy Information Administration report that saw a draw of over 12 million  barrels, oil prices moved the opposite way as concerns over shortages disappeared in minutes.

      The report also showed a balance between refiner capacity of 96.7 percentage points and a drop in gasoline inventories of just 700,000 barrels of product.

That’s it for this week!

Make it a good one...

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, July 12th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils to drop by 1.2 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel shows a drop of 1/10^th of a cent a litre (no change) and...

*Gasoline shows a slight drop of 8/10ths of a cent a litre.

Market highlights

Saudi’s turn on the taps

OPEC member Saudi Arabia surprised everyone, including fellow OPEC member with the release of production figures earlier this week that caught even the markets off-guard.

      Saudi Arabia produced almost 10.7 million barrels a day during June month, up from 9.98 million barrels in May, and most of it ahead of the June 22^nd meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC members who only then agreed to increase production.

      Venezuela was the big loser of production amidst internal problems as production there slipped below 1.4 million barrels a day from an average daily production of 2.91 million barrels a day in 2017.

       OPEC still has a long way to go to meet the shortfall in oil worldwide, but it is widely believed that only the Saudi’s can meet any needed production immediately to the markets.

Oil markets remain mostly “neutral” this week

The latest U.S Energy Information Administration inventory report, while nothing to cheer about, at least didn’t give speculators reason to celebrate.

      With refiner capacity down slightly by 4/10ths of a percentage point, crude oil inventories showed a slight increase of 1.2 million barrels all amidst market chatter of significant crude shortfalls and supply outages.

       Also, with the drop in capacity came a very slight decrease of 1.5 million barrels of gasoline, showing that production is close to meeting any demand for product out there.

       Prices remain at a balance at a critical time however, as any drop in refiner capacity will have to be met with an increase in product in order to avoid any increase to consumer prices. That may be hard as consumers hit the roads for the holidays.

Canadian dollar up slightly

The Canadian dollar increased slightly against it’s U.S cousin over the past week, rising  close on 1.5 cents against the greenback.

      With prices for refined product also staying mostly fixed over the past seven days, the dollar increase translated to a corresponding drop in prices, mostly affecting heating oil and gasoline prices.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, July 5th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils to increase by 2.5 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by 2.3 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to increase by 3.5 cents a litre.

***

Consumers to get hit at the pumps this week

Conception Bay South, NL, July 3^rd, 2018 – “Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick can all expect another hit at the pumps this week as shortfalls in oil and pressure on gasoline supplies mount”.

      That news from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer group for fair Gas Prices.

     “A quick look at the inventory data for last Wednesday was enough to put some added pressure on oil and refined commodities this past week as oil inventories took a hit as supplies from Alberta to the U.S were curtailed due to an outage at the Syncrude facility there. It took 350,000 barrels offline. Match that with doubts around Saudi Arabia’s ability to keep ahead of supply disruptions from both Libya and Venezuela, and we have another recipe for rising prices”. Murphy said.

     “To complicate matters further, we haven’t even considered the costs with Trump’s sanctioning of Iran in November taking an additional 500,000 barrels a day offline from U.S imports.

     “Gasoline inventories, while up slightly last week, were still tempered with the fact that refiner capacity was recorded at well over 97 percentage points, barely keeping ahead of demand. The capacity number also sucked a lot of crude through the pipes, dropping supplies by over nine million barrels in the last week. We’ll see new inventory data tomorrow to see if this trend continues. If it does, I’d be extremely worried!

     “Numbers aren’t looking good for Heating and stove oil users as spot prices are a rough thirty cents a litre than the same time in 2017. What cost a rough 47 cents on the New York markets last year now cost 72 cents today. That, and taxes adds up to a lot of money, or almost $270 to fill the oil fuel tank. If that doesn’t say something to consumers, then I don’t know what will. Gasoline numbers are no different seeing an increase in spot prices by close on the same, this time by 26 cents over last year, or a rough $16 based on a sixty litre fill-up”.

     “All of a sudden, there’s trouble ahead. If supplies don’t return to normal, inventories don’t climb and the dollar stays low, then consumers will have trouble for the foreseeable future. It could be a colder than usual winter.”

-30-

For more information, contact:

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, June 28th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for price changes for Thursday, June 28^th, 2018:

*Heating and stove oil to increase by a cent even.

*Diesel fuel to increase by 6/10ths of a cent per litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of 9/10ths of a cent a litre.

Markets show a slight increase in the works

“Expect to see a small increase in prices across the board as markets react to shortfalls of oil in the last days of the pricing session.” That word from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“For the first time since the U.S Memorial Day holiday weekend, consumers here will see a slight increase in prices due mainly to sudden shortfalls in expected crude oil output.” Murphy said. “OPEC and non-OPEC suppliers got together last weekend and agreed to supply the markets with an additional million barrels a day to help keep prices at the $70 U.S range where OPEC wants it, but they’re having problems just getting 600,000 barrels back online.”

      Latest word with Libya and Venezuela also spells trouble as they are having issues getting crude into the markets; Venezuela because of civil unrest and Libya, because of fighting that has closed its two major ports for oil export.

      “Enter Donald Trump who has expectations for all European Union nations to adhere to Iranian sanctions that Trump says will be brought in by November 4^th, removing another 500,000 barrels from U.S imports,, and you have a recipe for rising prices. To top it all off, draws are expected against U.S West Texas Intermediate crudes as a electrical fire has caused a major disruption of exports of crude from Alberta with the shutdown of Syncrude’s 350,000 barrel a day refinery in Alberta.

      “In very short order, over the past week, we have a shortfall in crude oil that is real, and shows just how sensitive the oil markets really are. While some crude prices have risen sharply, I expect that refined prices will follow soon, but only if inventories of refined products are affected. The truth being that, as some crude oil supply has been hit, consumers may also be at risk in the coming days as supply cannot meet demand in the major refining areas-and it is summer, the time of greatest gasoline demand.”

-30-

For more information, contact:

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, June 21st, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for price changes for this Thursday:

*Heating and stove oils to drop by 2/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel to drop by 2/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline to drop by 7/10ths of a cent a litre.

Market highlights

Canadian dollar keeps slipping

The Canadian dollar lost almost three cents against the U.S greenback as Trump’s tariffs on this country weighed on our currency.

     That, higher interest rates and a strong U.S unemployment number of 3.8 percent reported last week has thrown strength behind the U.S greenback raising it to levels against our currency not seen in a few years. The fall of the dollar has cost consumers about 2.5 cents at the pumps this week alone.

OPEC meeting June 22^nd on production cuts

Both OPEC and non-OPEC members will meet in Vienna, Austria to discuss the return to the markets a 1.8 million barrel a day cut to production that was meant to erase a perceived glut in oil stocks.

      OPEC now wants to add in their end of cuts amounting to 1.2 million barrels first announced in November of 2015. Russia and Azerbaijan also added to the overall production cut by adding 600,000 barrels to the move.

      But some member nations of OPEC aren’t so hasty in adding the full 1.2 million. Some are seeking an addition of between 300,000 barrels and 600,000 barrels as a more positive move to support oil, while Saudi Arabia worries about the loss of Venezuelan production as a need to add the full 1.2 OPEC end of production.

      The ‘back and forth’ over what the actual addition will be has added both up and down volatility to the oil markets this past week.

      We’ll find out on Friday what they will do.

U.S inventory report

U.S domestic production increased by another 100,000 barrels a day to hit 10.9 million barrels a day as higher prices have led to new rigs back in the oil patch.

      U.S crude oil saw a drop in supplies by 4.1 million barrels and gasoline also dropped by 2.1 million barrels as consumers started buying again as prices fell at the pumps.

      Refiner capacity was gauged at 95.7 percentage points as refiners saw good margins.

That’s it for this week!

Regards to all,

George Murphy

Twitter: GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, June 14th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils to drop by 6/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel to drop by 8/10ths of a cent, and...

*Gasoline shows another drop of 1.4 cents a litre.

Prices to drop across the board

“Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia should see a rarity in the world of oil prices and refined products: a third week in a row of dropping prices.”

     That’s from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair gas prices.

    “U.S inventories reported last Wednesday, the first day of the pricing session, showed what appears to be the impact of higher prices on consumers in the form of building gasoline inventories as consumers conserve as a result of high prices. We’re optimistic that prices will keep dropping, but consumers will eventually get used to a high price and turn back to buying again. I’m hoping that they will continue to impact inventories by going light on the gas pedal!”

       “It’s what I like to call ‘enforced conservation’, where consumers revolt for a short period of time as prices for refined product become unaffordable.”

        As reported by the U.S Energy Information Administration, gasoline inventories climbed an unexpected 4.6 million barrels, while crude oil also climbed by 2.1 million barrels as domestic production also hit 10.8 million barrels a day in the U.S.

        Distillate fuels also reported increases of 2.2 million barrels, a fuel group that includes heating oil, stove oils and Diesel fuel.

       U.S domestic production of crude oil hit 10.8 million barrels in the data last week.

-30-

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, June 7th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating, stove and Diesel fuel all predicted to drop by 1.9 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to drop by two cents a litre.

Market highlights

OPEC to meet June 22^nd

OPEC and non-OPEC producers will meet towards the end of the month to discuss formally increasing production back to more “normal” production levels.

     OPEC and non-OPEC producers met in November 2015 and agreed to institute a production cut that added up to 1.8 million barrels a day in an effort to absorb a glut in world oil estimated to be close to 3 billion barrels of supply. The move to cut production, OPEC believes, has worked to “return the market to balance” and now they want to add production to prevent oil prices rising past the $70 U.S a barrel mark in an effort to keep other producers, particularly shale producers from entering the market.

     Because of political turmoil in Venezuela, production has dropped to 1.4 million barrels a day from a recorded high of 3 million barrels a day in 1997 to today’s 1.4 million barrels a day. OPEC also wants to meet the shortfall in production there and Nigeria in order to “control rising prices”.

Market watching

*U.S EIA inventory report for Wednesday. Watch for signs of building crude as more domestic production is added. Second factor worth watching as a signal of consumer sentiment will be gasoline inventory numbers. As prices have risen, we’ll get a better sense of consumers’ feelings on prices at the pump. A build in inventory will send a strong signal that consumers are reigning back on consumption and could signal further signals that prices will retreat.

*Baker Hughes Friday rig count: If the number of rigs increase, it will signal new entrants into the oil patch, sending further signals of growing U.S domestic production.

*OPEC monthly production: Any signals that OPEC production may have already been signaled to members could have been detected in May total sales. If not, a robust growth in production should be picked up in the next report during the first week of July for June month.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, May 31st, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils to drop by 1.1 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to decrease by 1.3 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to decrease by 1.6 cents a litre.

Market highlights

As predicted...Prices start a retreat

A few weeks ago, I presented a scenario that I have seen in other sessions where gasoline and oil prices rose ahead of the U.S Memorial Day weekend.

      I am also on record as saying that the Memorial day weekend was often the peak that I have seen outside of the months of August and September where “Hurricane Season” reigns and has upwards influences on prices.

      Well, we’re here, but not to the degree as in other years, mainly as a result of the Canadian dollar losing further ground against the U.S greenback. So far this past week, since the end of the last pricing session, the “Canuck Buck” has lost close on 2.5 cents against the U.S dollar.

       With the Canadian dollar being an important factor in working up my numbers, it has become evident that we’re going to see further slippage in the dollar, which means a slower return to lower prices, also what I knew was going to happen.

        What we should all not tolerate is Canadian consumers being left to susceptibility of a lower dollar that will start to cost us more for the goods coming back to us as consumers. While fuel prices may be in a slow recovery in prices to the consumers benefit, we may be paying the price in higher costs for consumer goods before transport costs are even figured in to the equation...

        Right now, the disparity between the Canadian dollar and the U.S dollar at par is costing consumers a rough 35 cents a litre at the pumps...

        Here’s hoping that in the coming days refined product prices take a steeper hit...

Russia and OPEC reinstate production levels

       It was eighteen months ago almost that both OPEC and non-OPEC nations met and agreed to oil production cuts that would help “re-balance” the market by absorbing the world glut of oil.

       If you believe what is coming from the groups involved, then we may be very close to seeing an added 1.8 million barrels a day of capacity added to the oil markets once again, a move in the markets that helped to spark a retreat in oil prices and refined commodities.

      In November of 2016, both OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed to cut back on production starting in early 2017 to help support oil prices, a deal that was renewed later in February 2018.

      OPEC will next meet on June 22^nd, but it seems a moot point now as word has gotten out to other OPEC members to pick up on production again, a trend that may very well be picked up on as OPEC production data for May month comes out next week.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, May 24th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for price changes for Thursday:

*Heating and stove oil to increase by 1.4 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by two cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a 2.1 cent a litre increase at the pumps.

Market highlights

Watching the inventory wheel go around...

We may be about to hit “peak pricing” this season...

     The last time gasoline prices spiked as severely as they did, a measure I like to call “enforced conservation’” stepped in to help bring prices down. Numbers I have seen a long time ago seem to add to the fact that because of higher prices, consumers are forced to buy only what they can afford rather that what they really need. In other words, they’ll “reign back” their purchases of fuel with that same $20. They don’t increase their spending a great deal, and, if they do, it’s out of necessity that they do it.

     Impacts on inventories are first seen south of the border where everything is relatively close travel-wise. And when consumers are buying less product for the same amount of money, it tends to reflect on U.S inventories sooner rather than later.

     American Petroleum Institute data from this evening has shown an increase in gasoline inventories by just shy of a million barrels, but the real data to watch will be from the U.S EIA noon Newfoundland and Labrador time.

     I’m keeping an eye to the U.S as we approach the start of the U.S summer driving season this weekend as prices have now started hitting $3 US a gallon in  most areas.                            Tomorrow’s inventory report may be the first signal that U.S consumers are getting close to their breaking point and have already started to conserve as prices rise.

Iran tensions

Iran has turned down new U.S conditions needed to be met for Iran to avoid a new series of sanctions.

     In a speech on Monday, secretary of State Mike Pompeo set out some pretty harsh conditions that include Iran not using its influence in other areas of the Middle East. To tell the truth, it would have been a surprise had Iran agreed to some of those conditions set out in a twelve point message of “asks” from the U.S in order to avoid sanctions.

    Iran is also asking European Union members who support the present Iran nuclear deal to purchase more oil from them in the event that oil sanctions hit Iran. The move may hep it avoid any drop in production where product was shipped to the U.S.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, May 17, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oil to increase by 2.4 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel also to increase by 2.4 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline  to increase by 2.7 cents a litre.

Market highlights

*Middle East tensions continued to weigh on the markets this past week as Israel and Iran stepped up their tit-for-tat with Israel launching attacks against Iranian positions in Syria.

*Support for higher oil prices also comes from collapsing production in Venezuela as production from the South American OPEC member has fallen from 2.1 million barrels a day in January 2017 to April 2018’s production of 1.43 million barrels a day. While demand has risen hand in hand with OPEC production cuts, production from Venezuela has fallen well below their own production from years back, helping to erase part of the world glut of oil.

*OPEC compliance continues to be near a hundred percent as total OPEC production cuts have steadily fallen since the implementation of cuts in November 2016 to support oil and erase the glut of oil on the markets. Oil demand for the last three months has actually been averaging around 31.93 million barrels a day. Only Nigeria has reported an increase in production so far this month.

     What is remarkable this time around is the fact that all members have not cheated on quotas as they have in other times of cuts which makes rising oil prices more amazing to watch.

Watching:

     *Watching the U.S rig count. Last week showed the U.S rig count increase by ten rigs as a sign of some drillers entering the markets.

     *U.S domestic production increased by 91,000 barrels this past week as producers entered the fields and added to production that has averaged 35,000 barrels a week increase the last few years. There will be new inventory data released next week which may show further strong growth in domestic production.

     *U.S inventory data showed a drop in crude and gasoline inventories with both showing drops of 2.2 million barrels. New inventory data comes out Wednesday at noon Newfoundland time.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, May 10th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oil to increase by 7/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by 3/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of 3/10ths of a cent a litre.

Market highlights

Trump pulls his own plug

Donald Trump made it reality today as market traders had suspected; that Trump would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, putting a stamp of formality on what others had already priced into the markets.

     It’s no surprise that he could pull the U.S plug on the deal when you look close. Maybe a settled hardened peace out of the agreement was done because the U.S needed Iranian oil back then, but it certainly doesn’t now.

     Growing U.S domestic production has grown a lot since the deal was first signed, so the loss of any Iranian imports of oil into the U.S wasn’t going to be a huge loss anyway. U.S imports just today have been reported to have dropped from 1.7 million barrels a day to today’s 1.5 million barrels a day.

     U.S domestic production has surpassed 10.6 million barrels a day, so it may be seen as an insignificant loss to the U.S markets.     But while speculators played the Iran card over the last few months, it did succeed in raising oil prices, and if sanctions on Iran’s oil are a target, it may be less lucrative than hitting it’s finances instead of oil exports. Consumers may see a slight rise in oil, but any sanctions on oil exports will take some time to take hold.

     The problem for the U.S administration now remains that it has isolated itself in a situation where it has to prove the sanctions are again needed with world agreement.

     Trump is just not getting it.

     Other signatories to the agreement like China, Germany, France and others of the European Union simply will not stop the agreement, and the United Nations has also come out now backing the initial arrangement in the Iran nuclear deal.

      Donald has himself, and his nation, painted into a corner.

U.S inventories are up

U.S crude oil inventories increased last week with a huge build of 6.2 million barrels that helped steady oil prices in the markets this week.

     Gasoline inventories also increased, rising by 1.2 million barrels over the last week. That also showed some effect, helping gas prices to retreat slightly in the last week.

     Distillate prices show an increase this week, supported by the news that inventories of that fuel group dropped by 3.9 million barrels.

     Refiner capacity was reported at 91.1 per cent.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, May 3rd, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating/stove oils to increase by 8/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by 1.7 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of an even penny.

Market Highlights

Peak pricing-for now?...

    * Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador, and New Brunswick can expect to see a slight increase at the pumps this week as prices look to be peaking after rising on  increased Middle East tension and a falling Canadian dollar.

     * Markets are still playing on fears that there will be a further outbreak of violence in the Middle East that may lead to some supply disruption, but a possible break in the Iran nuclear deal by the U.S after the May 12^th deadline to get a new deal in place on Iran nuclear programming had some speculators running for the shade of the strong U.S greenback rather than oil.

      *Accordingly, it seems that any fears of a U.S pull-out from the Iran nuclear deal has stoked some fears of sanctions being placed on Iran, but it is unknown at the time if sanctions would mean an imposition of a crude oil export cut. If that happens, oil could rise again.

      * The Canadian dollar has lost another 1.5 cents on average against the U.S dollar this last session with the Canuck Buck hitting $1.2867 against it’s stronger neighbour.

      *U.S crude inventories signaled a gain last week of 2.2 million barrels while gasoline inventories increased by 800,000 barrels on 90.8 per cent capacity.

      *U.S domestic production increased by 46,000 barrels a day as domestic production again showed an increase10.586 million barrels a day. The growth is seen as a little weak considering the price of oil and still shows me a “reluctance” for anyone to jump into the domestic production scene.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil  

Price changes for Thursday, April 26th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils to increase by 2.1 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by 2.2 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to increase by 3.8 cents a litre.

Market Highlights

Middle East tensions continue to weigh...

Middle East tensions continued to make an impact on the markets as speculators weighed the latest series of rocket attacks from Yemeni rebels against the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyahd and the southern reaches of Saudi Arabia.

Canadian dollar loses ground...

The Canadian dollar lost almost two cents against the U.S greenback over the last week that has helped increase prices to consumers in Canada. Almost two cents a litre of the forecasted increase in the price of refined commodities can be attributed to a weak Canadian dollar.

Resolution: Iran nuclear deal in the works?...

Oil prices showed some retreat today as the President of France met with the U.S President, with Trump saying that they may be close on a deal on the Iran nuclear deal, avoiding the possibility of further sanctions that may have limited Iranian exports and production.

      Oil prices, already increased with speculation of sanctions, would have climbed significantly higher had further sanctions been put in place.

OPEC strategy of production cuts taking hold?

Market speculators are of the sense that OPEC cuts to production by member and non-member nations has taken a huge bite out of world over-supply, with the International Energy Agency saying that a record high compliance rate amongst key producers had all but erased the glut in world supplies of crude.

That’s it for this week’s update!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil  

Price changes for Thursday, April 19, 2018

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this week's price changes:

*Heating and stove oil shows an increase of 2.7 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an added 3.1 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of three cents a litre.

Market highlights

All Syria, all the time...
Donald Trump put out the warnings and the markets responded last week as Middle East violence erupted into a response to Syria's gas attack on the people of Douma.
Trump formed an alliance with Britain and France and an attack on Syrian facilities was launched late of Friday night in response to the Assad led gas attack.

     The fact that there would be a response led to wild speculation on the markets that could possibly lead to a disruption in Middle East supplies of crude oil. Spot prices for refined product also increased over the past couple of weeks with the resulting increase to consumers that we're seeing this week.

     For how long will these numbers be up no one truly knows at this point, but there has been some retreat in the numbers late in yesterday and today's session, so we'll just have to keep the fingers crossed. Most likely, we'll see that relief to heating and stove oil prices the most next week.

That's it for this week!

Don't forget to share this!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, April 12th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for price changes for this week:

*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.6 cents a litre.

*Both Diesel and Gasoline show a drop of 1.9 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Trump a nightmare for the oil markets

Besides trying to run a country, the U.S president has been throwing turmoil in the markets, threatening tariffs at every turn. Latest on the list is China, with Trump arguing his case that they have an imbalance with the Asian monster.

      Not good for the oil markets however, as anticipated demand would show that more oil would be needed for a burgeoning economy that has access to the U.S market. The threat of tariffs saw oil fall and then steady through the week, but a possible ease of the tariff argument later in the session helped support oil prices. Those hopes were part reason why Brent prices hit $71 U.S in trading today.

      

Word on U.S inventories

Oil inventories from the U.S Energy Information Administration proved to be bullish as the department reported a draw on oil inventories of 4.6 million barrels.

            Gasoline also showed a draw of 1.1 million barrels against a refiner capacity of 93 percent.

            U.S domestic production increased by 27,000 barrels a day to show the U.S producing 10.46 million barrels a day.

            But with that number comes the question why domestic output has not increased appreciably to the corresponding rise in oil prices. It could be caution, but a lacklustre performance in the face of a rise in oil is also helping to support oil prices as well.

           If there’s going to be a measured response, it may happen this week as the U.S rig count increased by 11 rigs this week, which may be enough to temper oil prices should their output come online.

Final word...

Still watching the situation in the Middle East, particularly as it comes from Syria and the Russian/U.S back and forth on the issue. Iran and Saudi Arabia are also still in focus as the war in Yemen has also been making headlines this week.

            There’s lots happening out there, and I’m trying to keep an eye to all of it!

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, April 5th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for price changes for this week:

*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 5/10ths of a cent per litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an added 3/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 1/10th of a cent a litre.

Keep in mind that I go by a 3/10ths of a cent margin for error.

I think most here will remember last week with its increase, but I did notice a trend where prices showed they would steady out for the next week or so, and if there were to be any retreat in prices, they would show on the tail end of this week's measurement.

Such is the case where I do have a slight decline predicted for next week, for gasoline at least, as prices have dropped back for refined commodities by about 1.5 cents.

Heating, stove oils and Diesel fuel all show a drop of 1 to 1.5 cents leading into next week's price changes. Keep in mind that anything can happen in the next week however, so don't put your money on it until I get a couple of more days data!

That's it for next week!

Regards,

George

Price changes for Thursday, March 29, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating/stove oils to increase by 4.1 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by three cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to increase by 3.5 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Bolton appointment continues to fan the oil markets

     John Bolton seems to be a nice enough fella...

     At least to Donald Trump.

     He’s now a member of the Trump cabinet and was a key adversary of the Iran nuclear deal reached between Obama and six other nations sitting around the U.N security council, and Germany. The deal signed a few years back saw Iran increase its oil exports in return for promising to shut down it’s nuclear aspirations.

     Markets are still trading oil higher as speculators see the possibilities of another extended Middle East conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a problem that was given fuel with Crown Prince Bin Salman meeting with Trump earlier this week.

Budget 2018

     The provincial budget is in and there’s really no surprises in it.

     While the province held back on the remaining four cents a litre in gas taxes that first came in back in Budget 2016, they did commit to dropping the gas tax immediately upon implementation of a new carbon tax due to hit the people of the province in January of 2019.

      Further, the province has set the budget based on $63 US a barrel.

      With eleven opinions of where oil will be, the government settled on those opinions.

      I personally wouldn’t have gone beyond $55 US. We’ve been here before and the markets are certainly volatile with U.S domestic production set to break the eleven million barrel a day mark in a couple of months. True, that geo-politics may reign supreme in the news right now, but anything is possible and can’t be discounted.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Saudi Arabia, Trump and Iran...and yes, your weekly price changes!

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oil to increase by 2.3 cents a litre.

Diesel fuel to increase by 2.4 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to increase by three cents a litre.

Market highlights

Saudi Arabia pokes the Middle East bear...

Saudi Arabia joined in on Trump’s refrain in calling the Iran nuclear deal into question late yesterday as the Middle East rhetoric ramps up.

     Trump has also called into question the deal first signed in 2009, but there may be an ulterior motive behind the increase in questioning the deal.

      While Trump has been making the call, U.S exports of domestic oil have increased along with the increase in U.S domestic production. If sanctions were to be ramped up again against Iran, it could come in the form of lower oil output again from Iran, creating space for both U.S and Saudi Arabian exports to fill the void.

      Saudi Arabia has also lost a little market share in the last couple of years and may have good reason in limiting the cash intake to a country that supports the opposite regime in Yemen.

      In the meantime, the Saudi crown prince is on record as saying the Saudi’s would build nuclear weapons if Iran succeeds.

      Scary times...

Venezuelan production lower...

Unrest and a weak economy saddled with a huge government debt is driving Venezuelan production lower at a time when the South American country can least afford it..

      According to International Energy Agency figures, the South American country’s production has fallen close to 600,000 barrels a day since the same time last year.

Provincial budget next week to lower gas taxes?...

The province is set to drop the budget March 27^th and that brings with it the promise of a return to lower gas taxes as government is set to remove the last four cents a litre (4.6 cents including HST) first implemented in Budget 2016.

      The gas tax at that time doubled from 16.5 cents a litre to 33 cents a litre in an attempt to increase provincial revenue by increasing the gas tax take from $189 million per year to a predicted $318 million.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter@GeorgeMurphyOil

Tillerson removal and this week's price changes...

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oil to drop by 4/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel to decrease by 3/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline to decrease by a half penny a litre.

Market highlights

Watch oil-Tillerson is gone...

While it was a fairly quiet week on the markets, the removal of Tillerson from the Trump “cabinet” again placed an interest back into Middle East politics.

      At this point, his removal shouldn’t be a surprise. Both were miles apart on a key issue on Trump’s agenda, a renegotiation of the Iran nuclear deal.

      With Tillerson now gone, it may be worthwhile to keep an eye on oil prices as Trump may be about to take a poke at the Middle Eastern bear to see if he can’t again get his way and make changes to the Iran nuclear deal signed by Obama and five other nations in 2015.

U.S inventories

U.S crude inventories increased again last week adding 2.4 million barrels in a report that also showed a drop in gasoline supplies of 800K barrels.

      Distillate also saw a drop in inventories of 600K barrels.

      Refiner capacity was recorded at 88 per cent with scheduled refinery shut-downs.

       U.S domestic oil production hit a new high of 10.369 million barrels a day, an increase of 86,000 barrels in the last week.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, March 8th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating/stove oils to drop by 1.8 cents a litre.

*Diesel price to drop by 2.2 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to drop by 1.4 cents a litre.

Market highlights

U.S inventories weigh on the markets

While speculators have been groping for positive news in the oil markets, they have been coming up with disappointing results, and that includes the latest U.S inventory reports that signal that the U.S is starting to fill up its coffers with new oil.

      U.S crude inventories increased Wednesday last week by another three million barrels, adding to a potential glut of oil south of the border.

     Gasoline inventories also increased in spite of lower refiner capacity. Gasoline rose by 2.5 million barrels as refiner capacity dropped to 87.8 percent. With a drop in the capacity due to refinery shut-downs for maintenance, it was unusual to see gasoline inventories building with refinery spigots turned off.

       It may also signal a slightly bigger drop in demand as consumers may have been curtailed from using fuel as a result of foul late winter weather.

      U.S domestic output increased in the last week, adding another 13,000 barrels a day to overall U.S production of oil.

Canadian dollar sinks again

The Canadian dollar lost ground again to Trump’s call for increased tariffs against Canadian steel and aluminum helped support refined prices.

      With the Canadian dollar losing almost three cents against the U.S greenback, refined prices also lost roughly 1.6 cents a litre on all refined fuel prices.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil