In Case I Can't Post Later Tonight!....

Seven days data in.(Updated!)

I'm not sure that I'm going to be able to post updated numbers based on today's market moves simply because the House of Assembly is open tonight and I don't know if I'm going to get the chance...(I did!)

Here's what I have for Thursday so far, with one more day of data due:
Heating, stove oils and Diesel fuel show little change with just 2/10ths of a cent a litre drop showing up.
Gasoline shows an increase of 1.3 cents a litre on the backside of the US Memorial Day weekend holiday.

The summer driving season is now on. Prices after Thursday's price changes may be what you'll see for June and July.

See what happens!

These are the final numbers.

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA 

Price changes for Thursday, May 8th, 2014

Hi to all,

Sorry this is late. We had a late sitting of the House tonight.

Final numbers for Thursday, May 8th price changes.

All the data in now. Here's what I have. All for the better from today's earlier tweet!

Heating and stove oils to drop by 2.46 cents a litre.
Diesel down by 2.6 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline to drop now by 4.1 cents a litre.

The Canadian dollar has gained slightly against its US counterpart, finishing today at $1.089 against the Greenback.

Prices are probably down in the markets as a result of consumer sentiments about high prices. No doubt, as we're all a little peeved about rising prices. Speculators have heard the arguments and seem to be pulling back somewhat until stronger demand signals kick in.

The markets are "touchy". Even with high sentiments about prices, oil prices didn't gain on the surprising jobless numbers out of the US, possibly reflective of the improving US economy. Speculators took consumer sentiment over the positive economic figures in the US this time around it seems.

Add to that, the fact that there's still not so good news out of China. Remains a factor to play out here, as any good news from there may be enough to turn oil prices up.

Keep conserving and "expressing" dis-satisfaction with prices, and we'll all impact inventory! That's key right now!

All the best!

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, May 1st, 2014

Sorry I'm late, but work had to come first and foremost...

Disappointing news from the markets today. As a matter of fact, all week.

Here's what I have for this week's price changes:

Heating oil shows a drop of just 39/100ths of a cent a litre.
Diesel shows just a drop of 7/10ths of a cent a litre.
Gasoline: Down just 1/10th of a cent on a litre.

Sickening to see no change. Wednesday's inventory report, if it shows any increase in gasoline supply, may start to move prices down.
But if they show a draw on inventory, it could move prices the opposite direction. Needless to say, I'll be watching for that inventory report when it comes around.

Hate to disappoint with tonight's news, but at least the numbers don't show any upwards moves.

All the best,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA 

Price changes for Thursday, April 17th, 2014

Here's what I have for Thursday's price changes.

Not good.

Heating and stove oils show an added 63/100ths of a cent.
Diesel fuel shows an added 1.1 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows an added 5 cents a litre at the pumps.

A draw on gasoline inventories may have been a huge factor in this week's increase, all in spite of a good build of inventory of crude oil.

I guess with snow on the melt, the gulls in the markets are taking advantage of warming weather ahead of the summer driving season. We'll keep an eye for anything happening in the markets that may drive prices up again and give everyone a better heads-up for next week.

The Canadian dollar remained about equal to its US counterpart in spite of the $3 US increase in crude prices.

That's it this week!

Regards,

George Murphy, MHA
St. John’s East
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, April 10, 2014

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes.
Keep in mind that the winter blending of heating and diesel fuels is now over and that my numbers, while maybe off this week, should be accurate for next week.

Here's what I have:

Heating and stove oils to drop by 1.77 cents a litre.
Diesel to drop by 2.2 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline to increase this week by 1.8 cents a litre.

Markets are anticipating another drop in gasoline inventories as recorded by the US Energy Information Administration. That inventory report will be released Wednesday, around 1:30PM Newfoundland time. We'll see what the report says.

The Canadian dollar showed an increase against the US greenback at the end of this pricing session with the increase in crude oil prices, that averaged a rough $2 US a barrel. Further disruptions in crude oil to the markets is cited for that increase.

That's it for this week! Feel free to share it around.

Regards,


George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, April 3, 2014

Hi to everyone!

Hope you're all dug out now...

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes, bearing in mind that we're still under the guides of the winter blending of heating oil and diesel fuel, so those numbers may be off somewhat...

Heating and stove oils show an added 38/100ths of a cent a litre.
Diesel fuel shows a drop of just 3/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 1.4 cents making its way down the pipes.

My usual margin for error is 3/10ths of a cent, so, it doesn't look like too many price changes, except for gasoline.

That’s it for now!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Numbers for Thursday, March 27, 2014

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes. Keep in mind that the numbers for heating oil and diesel fuel are still subject to winter blending, so, those numbers will not be entirely accurate!

Heating and stove oils show a very modest drop of just 15/100ths of a cent a litre.
Diesel is showing up by 9/10ths of a cent, and...
Gasoline shows just a 3/10ths of a cent decrease.

The Canadian dollar lost a rough cent against the US greenback over the past week. If it was up against the US dollar, we could have been looking at another more substantive drop.

Oil inventories showed an overall gain last week, while gasoline inventories were down slightly. Both offset against each other really, with oil inventories signalling that there's plenty of oil out there floating around in case it's needed for processing. Oil prices themselves were showing to remain relatively steady over the past week as well.

Hope all this helps!


Regards to all,

George Murphy
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Numbers for Thursday, March 20, 2014

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for Thursday's price changes.
Keep in mind that my numbers for Heating oil and Diesel fuel will still be off somewhat because of winter blending!

Stove oil shows a drop of 2.55 cents a litre.
Heating oil shows down by 2.55 cents.
Diesel fuel shows a drop of 5.2 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of just 1.1 cents a litre.

Better "down" than up I guess...

The Canadian dollar remained relatively steady against the US greenback, all in spite of a modest drop in some oil prices. I continue to keep in view the situation in the Ukraine, but oil prices are more reflective of some worldwide drops in overall production. Libya and Iraq remain as export concerns to the markets, particularly for Brent prices.

That's it for this week!


Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Numbers for Thursday, March 13, 2014

Hi to all,

Numbers for Thursday...

Keep in mind that the numbers for heating oil and diesel will be off somewhat because of winter blending. They use kerosene as an antifreeze during the winter, and I can't track that stuff, as much as I've tried!

Either way, here's what I have for Thursday:

Heating and stove oils show a drop of 3.06 cents a litre.
Diesel shows a drop of 2.3 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a modest drop of 1.2 cents a litre.

From the look of it, the markets are telling me that the distillate fuels, heating, stove and diesel, are all dropping because of warming weather in the US. This winter can't go fast enough for me, let alone those depending on heating oils!

The Canadian dollar remained steady the last week, hanging around that $1.10 to $1.11 mark against the US greenback.

Share it around...

That's it for this week. 

Regards,

 
George Murphy
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA 

Price changes for Thursday, March 6th, 2014

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for Thursday, March 6th price changes:

Looks like the situation in the Ukraine did play a small role in the numbers this week, but more on the natural gas end of things. The Ukraine situation has only resulted in the possible disruption of about 300K in oil exports that would pass through the eastern European country into the rest of Europe. We'd more than likely see a sharper increase in Brent prices, but West Texas prices have also seen a very modest increase overall this week.

Added up though, the steady increase in Brent prices as of late are more tied to other possible supply disruptions along the supply chain and not just from the Ukraine, namely from Libya and other Middle East nations where, as of the last reports I’ve had, about 600K in exports remain shut in.

Here's what I have, keeping in mind that the winter heating mix still makes the heating and diesel fuel numbers inaccurate:

Stove oils drop by a half penny.
Heating oils also down a half penny.
Diesel to drop by 1.7 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline also down, but by 1.4 cents a litre.

Now, I'm betting that some of you may have thought that it should be the other way around with the threats to a possible confrontation in the Ukraine, right?

Yup...
Had me too!

That's it for this week!

George Murphy, MHA, St. John's East

Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, February 27th, 2014

Hi to all,

All numbers are based on six days data out of seven needed this week.

Here’s what I have for price changes this week. Keep in mind that the numbers for heating oil and diesel I think are still going to be way off with the addition of the winter blend of kerosene in the mix. I can’t track it, so, those numbers can only be used as a rough indicator.

The gasoline numbers should be still close however.

·         Heating and stove oils add 1.9 cents a litre.

·         Diesel fuel adds 3.3 cents a litre, and…

·         Gasoline shows an added 2.2 cents a litre at the pumps.

Gasoline continues to rise

It’s not a pretty picture being painted by the rise in gas prices the last few weeks, with gasoline prices showing steady rates of increases all well ahead of the traditional summer driving season. My past records indicate that the rise in gasoline prices ahead of the traditional start of the US summer driving season starting in mid-May, would experience a run-up in basic numbers usually at the end of March month. But this year is now the second year that we have seen a run-up in fuel prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange during the late January and February time-frame. What that is doing is giving gasoline prices a higher starting point for further price increases to occur during the early summer season, and that has the potential for a host of problems with transportation costs. That is probably a strong reason why everything in the province saw an adjusted inflation rate that surpassed the national average by an added percentage point to rest at 2.5%.

What’s needed to give pricing relief?

Besides consumers practicing conservation, we need to see an increase in refining capacity, and coupled with good strong builds in inventories. While they may sit right now at close to the same level they were this time last year, a slight improvement in the US economy has added some upwards pressures.

Rising transportation costs were already reflected in an increase to Marine Atlantic transportation charges a few weeks ago, with the company increasing rates by an added 3%. No doubt, those added costs will be passed down to everything from tourist traffic to consumer goods shipped in via truck. The federal government needs to mandate extra funding to Marine Atlantic so we can be insulated from increasing energy costs, but it makes one wonder why prices went up for us in the first place, if you consider that the new boats were supposed to be more energy efficient!

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA