Price changes for Thursday, May 31st, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils to drop by 1.1 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to decrease by 1.3 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to decrease by 1.6 cents a litre.

Market highlights

As predicted...Prices start a retreat

A few weeks ago, I presented a scenario that I have seen in other sessions where gasoline and oil prices rose ahead of the U.S Memorial Day weekend.

      I am also on record as saying that the Memorial day weekend was often the peak that I have seen outside of the months of August and September where “Hurricane Season” reigns and has upwards influences on prices.

      Well, we’re here, but not to the degree as in other years, mainly as a result of the Canadian dollar losing further ground against the U.S greenback. So far this past week, since the end of the last pricing session, the “Canuck Buck” has lost close on 2.5 cents against the U.S dollar.

       With the Canadian dollar being an important factor in working up my numbers, it has become evident that we’re going to see further slippage in the dollar, which means a slower return to lower prices, also what I knew was going to happen.

        What we should all not tolerate is Canadian consumers being left to susceptibility of a lower dollar that will start to cost us more for the goods coming back to us as consumers. While fuel prices may be in a slow recovery in prices to the consumers benefit, we may be paying the price in higher costs for consumer goods before transport costs are even figured in to the equation...

        Right now, the disparity between the Canadian dollar and the U.S dollar at par is costing consumers a rough 35 cents a litre at the pumps...

        Here’s hoping that in the coming days refined product prices take a steeper hit...

Russia and OPEC reinstate production levels

       It was eighteen months ago almost that both OPEC and non-OPEC nations met and agreed to oil production cuts that would help “re-balance” the market by absorbing the world glut of oil.

       If you believe what is coming from the groups involved, then we may be very close to seeing an added 1.8 million barrels a day of capacity added to the oil markets once again, a move in the markets that helped to spark a retreat in oil prices and refined commodities.

      In November of 2016, both OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed to cut back on production starting in early 2017 to help support oil prices, a deal that was renewed later in February 2018.

      OPEC will next meet on June 22^nd, but it seems a moot point now as word has gotten out to other OPEC members to pick up on production again, a trend that may very well be picked up on as OPEC production data for May month comes out next week.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, May 24th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for price changes for Thursday:

*Heating and stove oil to increase by 1.4 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by two cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a 2.1 cent a litre increase at the pumps.

Market highlights

Watching the inventory wheel go around...

We may be about to hit “peak pricing” this season...

     The last time gasoline prices spiked as severely as they did, a measure I like to call “enforced conservation’” stepped in to help bring prices down. Numbers I have seen a long time ago seem to add to the fact that because of higher prices, consumers are forced to buy only what they can afford rather that what they really need. In other words, they’ll “reign back” their purchases of fuel with that same $20. They don’t increase their spending a great deal, and, if they do, it’s out of necessity that they do it.

     Impacts on inventories are first seen south of the border where everything is relatively close travel-wise. And when consumers are buying less product for the same amount of money, it tends to reflect on U.S inventories sooner rather than later.

     American Petroleum Institute data from this evening has shown an increase in gasoline inventories by just shy of a million barrels, but the real data to watch will be from the U.S EIA noon Newfoundland and Labrador time.

     I’m keeping an eye to the U.S as we approach the start of the U.S summer driving season this weekend as prices have now started hitting $3 US a gallon in  most areas.                            Tomorrow’s inventory report may be the first signal that U.S consumers are getting close to their breaking point and have already started to conserve as prices rise.

Iran tensions

Iran has turned down new U.S conditions needed to be met for Iran to avoid a new series of sanctions.

     In a speech on Monday, secretary of State Mike Pompeo set out some pretty harsh conditions that include Iran not using its influence in other areas of the Middle East. To tell the truth, it would have been a surprise had Iran agreed to some of those conditions set out in a twelve point message of “asks” from the U.S in order to avoid sanctions.

    Iran is also asking European Union members who support the present Iran nuclear deal to purchase more oil from them in the event that oil sanctions hit Iran. The move may hep it avoid any drop in production where product was shipped to the U.S.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, May 17, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oil to increase by 2.4 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel also to increase by 2.4 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline  to increase by 2.7 cents a litre.

Market highlights

*Middle East tensions continued to weigh on the markets this past week as Israel and Iran stepped up their tit-for-tat with Israel launching attacks against Iranian positions in Syria.

*Support for higher oil prices also comes from collapsing production in Venezuela as production from the South American OPEC member has fallen from 2.1 million barrels a day in January 2017 to April 2018’s production of 1.43 million barrels a day. While demand has risen hand in hand with OPEC production cuts, production from Venezuela has fallen well below their own production from years back, helping to erase part of the world glut of oil.

*OPEC compliance continues to be near a hundred percent as total OPEC production cuts have steadily fallen since the implementation of cuts in November 2016 to support oil and erase the glut of oil on the markets. Oil demand for the last three months has actually been averaging around 31.93 million barrels a day. Only Nigeria has reported an increase in production so far this month.

     What is remarkable this time around is the fact that all members have not cheated on quotas as they have in other times of cuts which makes rising oil prices more amazing to watch.

Watching:

     *Watching the U.S rig count. Last week showed the U.S rig count increase by ten rigs as a sign of some drillers entering the markets.

     *U.S domestic production increased by 91,000 barrels this past week as producers entered the fields and added to production that has averaged 35,000 barrels a week increase the last few years. There will be new inventory data released next week which may show further strong growth in domestic production.

     *U.S inventory data showed a drop in crude and gasoline inventories with both showing drops of 2.2 million barrels. New inventory data comes out Wednesday at noon Newfoundland time.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, May 10th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oil to increase by 7/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by 3/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of 3/10ths of a cent a litre.

Market highlights

Trump pulls his own plug

Donald Trump made it reality today as market traders had suspected; that Trump would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, putting a stamp of formality on what others had already priced into the markets.

     It’s no surprise that he could pull the U.S plug on the deal when you look close. Maybe a settled hardened peace out of the agreement was done because the U.S needed Iranian oil back then, but it certainly doesn’t now.

     Growing U.S domestic production has grown a lot since the deal was first signed, so the loss of any Iranian imports of oil into the U.S wasn’t going to be a huge loss anyway. U.S imports just today have been reported to have dropped from 1.7 million barrels a day to today’s 1.5 million barrels a day.

     U.S domestic production has surpassed 10.6 million barrels a day, so it may be seen as an insignificant loss to the U.S markets.     But while speculators played the Iran card over the last few months, it did succeed in raising oil prices, and if sanctions on Iran’s oil are a target, it may be less lucrative than hitting it’s finances instead of oil exports. Consumers may see a slight rise in oil, but any sanctions on oil exports will take some time to take hold.

     The problem for the U.S administration now remains that it has isolated itself in a situation where it has to prove the sanctions are again needed with world agreement.

     Trump is just not getting it.

     Other signatories to the agreement like China, Germany, France and others of the European Union simply will not stop the agreement, and the United Nations has also come out now backing the initial arrangement in the Iran nuclear deal.

      Donald has himself, and his nation, painted into a corner.

U.S inventories are up

U.S crude oil inventories increased last week with a huge build of 6.2 million barrels that helped steady oil prices in the markets this week.

     Gasoline inventories also increased, rising by 1.2 million barrels over the last week. That also showed some effect, helping gas prices to retreat slightly in the last week.

     Distillate prices show an increase this week, supported by the news that inventories of that fuel group dropped by 3.9 million barrels.

     Refiner capacity was reported at 91.1 per cent.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, May 3rd, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating/stove oils to increase by 8/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by 1.7 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of an even penny.

Market Highlights

Peak pricing-for now?...

    * Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador, and New Brunswick can expect to see a slight increase at the pumps this week as prices look to be peaking after rising on  increased Middle East tension and a falling Canadian dollar.

     * Markets are still playing on fears that there will be a further outbreak of violence in the Middle East that may lead to some supply disruption, but a possible break in the Iran nuclear deal by the U.S after the May 12^th deadline to get a new deal in place on Iran nuclear programming had some speculators running for the shade of the strong U.S greenback rather than oil.

      *Accordingly, it seems that any fears of a U.S pull-out from the Iran nuclear deal has stoked some fears of sanctions being placed on Iran, but it is unknown at the time if sanctions would mean an imposition of a crude oil export cut. If that happens, oil could rise again.

      * The Canadian dollar has lost another 1.5 cents on average against the U.S dollar this last session with the Canuck Buck hitting $1.2867 against it’s stronger neighbour.

      *U.S crude inventories signaled a gain last week of 2.2 million barrels while gasoline inventories increased by 800,000 barrels on 90.8 per cent capacity.

      *U.S domestic production increased by 46,000 barrels a day as domestic production again showed an increase10.586 million barrels a day. The growth is seen as a little weak considering the price of oil and still shows me a “reluctance” for anyone to jump into the domestic production scene.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil  

Price changes for Thursday, April 26th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils to increase by 2.1 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by 2.2 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to increase by 3.8 cents a litre.

Market Highlights

Middle East tensions continue to weigh...

Middle East tensions continued to make an impact on the markets as speculators weighed the latest series of rocket attacks from Yemeni rebels against the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyahd and the southern reaches of Saudi Arabia.

Canadian dollar loses ground...

The Canadian dollar lost almost two cents against the U.S greenback over the last week that has helped increase prices to consumers in Canada. Almost two cents a litre of the forecasted increase in the price of refined commodities can be attributed to a weak Canadian dollar.

Resolution: Iran nuclear deal in the works?...

Oil prices showed some retreat today as the President of France met with the U.S President, with Trump saying that they may be close on a deal on the Iran nuclear deal, avoiding the possibility of further sanctions that may have limited Iranian exports and production.

      Oil prices, already increased with speculation of sanctions, would have climbed significantly higher had further sanctions been put in place.

OPEC strategy of production cuts taking hold?

Market speculators are of the sense that OPEC cuts to production by member and non-member nations has taken a huge bite out of world over-supply, with the International Energy Agency saying that a record high compliance rate amongst key producers had all but erased the glut in world supplies of crude.

That’s it for this week’s update!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil  

Price changes for Thursday, April 19, 2018

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this week's price changes:

*Heating and stove oil shows an increase of 2.7 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an added 3.1 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of three cents a litre.

Market highlights

All Syria, all the time...
Donald Trump put out the warnings and the markets responded last week as Middle East violence erupted into a response to Syria's gas attack on the people of Douma.
Trump formed an alliance with Britain and France and an attack on Syrian facilities was launched late of Friday night in response to the Assad led gas attack.

     The fact that there would be a response led to wild speculation on the markets that could possibly lead to a disruption in Middle East supplies of crude oil. Spot prices for refined product also increased over the past couple of weeks with the resulting increase to consumers that we're seeing this week.

     For how long will these numbers be up no one truly knows at this point, but there has been some retreat in the numbers late in yesterday and today's session, so we'll just have to keep the fingers crossed. Most likely, we'll see that relief to heating and stove oil prices the most next week.

That's it for this week!

Don't forget to share this!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, April 12th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for price changes for this week:

*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.6 cents a litre.

*Both Diesel and Gasoline show a drop of 1.9 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Trump a nightmare for the oil markets

Besides trying to run a country, the U.S president has been throwing turmoil in the markets, threatening tariffs at every turn. Latest on the list is China, with Trump arguing his case that they have an imbalance with the Asian monster.

      Not good for the oil markets however, as anticipated demand would show that more oil would be needed for a burgeoning economy that has access to the U.S market. The threat of tariffs saw oil fall and then steady through the week, but a possible ease of the tariff argument later in the session helped support oil prices. Those hopes were part reason why Brent prices hit $71 U.S in trading today.

      

Word on U.S inventories

Oil inventories from the U.S Energy Information Administration proved to be bullish as the department reported a draw on oil inventories of 4.6 million barrels.

            Gasoline also showed a draw of 1.1 million barrels against a refiner capacity of 93 percent.

            U.S domestic production increased by 27,000 barrels a day to show the U.S producing 10.46 million barrels a day.

            But with that number comes the question why domestic output has not increased appreciably to the corresponding rise in oil prices. It could be caution, but a lacklustre performance in the face of a rise in oil is also helping to support oil prices as well.

           If there’s going to be a measured response, it may happen this week as the U.S rig count increased by 11 rigs this week, which may be enough to temper oil prices should their output come online.

Final word...

Still watching the situation in the Middle East, particularly as it comes from Syria and the Russian/U.S back and forth on the issue. Iran and Saudi Arabia are also still in focus as the war in Yemen has also been making headlines this week.

            There’s lots happening out there, and I’m trying to keep an eye to all of it!

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, April 5th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for price changes for this week:

*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 5/10ths of a cent per litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an added 3/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 1/10th of a cent a litre.

Keep in mind that I go by a 3/10ths of a cent margin for error.

I think most here will remember last week with its increase, but I did notice a trend where prices showed they would steady out for the next week or so, and if there were to be any retreat in prices, they would show on the tail end of this week's measurement.

Such is the case where I do have a slight decline predicted for next week, for gasoline at least, as prices have dropped back for refined commodities by about 1.5 cents.

Heating, stove oils and Diesel fuel all show a drop of 1 to 1.5 cents leading into next week's price changes. Keep in mind that anything can happen in the next week however, so don't put your money on it until I get a couple of more days data!

That's it for next week!

Regards,

George

Price changes for Thursday, March 29, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating/stove oils to increase by 4.1 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel to increase by three cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to increase by 3.5 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Bolton appointment continues to fan the oil markets

     John Bolton seems to be a nice enough fella...

     At least to Donald Trump.

     He’s now a member of the Trump cabinet and was a key adversary of the Iran nuclear deal reached between Obama and six other nations sitting around the U.N security council, and Germany. The deal signed a few years back saw Iran increase its oil exports in return for promising to shut down it’s nuclear aspirations.

     Markets are still trading oil higher as speculators see the possibilities of another extended Middle East conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a problem that was given fuel with Crown Prince Bin Salman meeting with Trump earlier this week.

Budget 2018

     The provincial budget is in and there’s really no surprises in it.

     While the province held back on the remaining four cents a litre in gas taxes that first came in back in Budget 2016, they did commit to dropping the gas tax immediately upon implementation of a new carbon tax due to hit the people of the province in January of 2019.

      Further, the province has set the budget based on $63 US a barrel.

      With eleven opinions of where oil will be, the government settled on those opinions.

      I personally wouldn’t have gone beyond $55 US. We’ve been here before and the markets are certainly volatile with U.S domestic production set to break the eleven million barrel a day mark in a couple of months. True, that geo-politics may reign supreme in the news right now, but anything is possible and can’t be discounted.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Saudi Arabia, Trump and Iran...and yes, your weekly price changes!

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oil to increase by 2.3 cents a litre.

Diesel fuel to increase by 2.4 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to increase by three cents a litre.

Market highlights

Saudi Arabia pokes the Middle East bear...

Saudi Arabia joined in on Trump’s refrain in calling the Iran nuclear deal into question late yesterday as the Middle East rhetoric ramps up.

     Trump has also called into question the deal first signed in 2009, but there may be an ulterior motive behind the increase in questioning the deal.

      While Trump has been making the call, U.S exports of domestic oil have increased along with the increase in U.S domestic production. If sanctions were to be ramped up again against Iran, it could come in the form of lower oil output again from Iran, creating space for both U.S and Saudi Arabian exports to fill the void.

      Saudi Arabia has also lost a little market share in the last couple of years and may have good reason in limiting the cash intake to a country that supports the opposite regime in Yemen.

      In the meantime, the Saudi crown prince is on record as saying the Saudi’s would build nuclear weapons if Iran succeeds.

      Scary times...

Venezuelan production lower...

Unrest and a weak economy saddled with a huge government debt is driving Venezuelan production lower at a time when the South American country can least afford it..

      According to International Energy Agency figures, the South American country’s production has fallen close to 600,000 barrels a day since the same time last year.

Provincial budget next week to lower gas taxes?...

The province is set to drop the budget March 27^th and that brings with it the promise of a return to lower gas taxes as government is set to remove the last four cents a litre (4.6 cents including HST) first implemented in Budget 2016.

      The gas tax at that time doubled from 16.5 cents a litre to 33 cents a litre in an attempt to increase provincial revenue by increasing the gas tax take from $189 million per year to a predicted $318 million.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter@GeorgeMurphyOil

Tillerson removal and this week's price changes...

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oil to drop by 4/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel to decrease by 3/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline to decrease by a half penny a litre.

Market highlights

Watch oil-Tillerson is gone...

While it was a fairly quiet week on the markets, the removal of Tillerson from the Trump “cabinet” again placed an interest back into Middle East politics.

      At this point, his removal shouldn’t be a surprise. Both were miles apart on a key issue on Trump’s agenda, a renegotiation of the Iran nuclear deal.

      With Tillerson now gone, it may be worthwhile to keep an eye on oil prices as Trump may be about to take a poke at the Middle Eastern bear to see if he can’t again get his way and make changes to the Iran nuclear deal signed by Obama and five other nations in 2015.

U.S inventories

U.S crude inventories increased again last week adding 2.4 million barrels in a report that also showed a drop in gasoline supplies of 800K barrels.

      Distillate also saw a drop in inventories of 600K barrels.

      Refiner capacity was recorded at 88 per cent with scheduled refinery shut-downs.

       U.S domestic oil production hit a new high of 10.369 million barrels a day, an increase of 86,000 barrels in the last week.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, March 8th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating/stove oils to drop by 1.8 cents a litre.

*Diesel price to drop by 2.2 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline to drop by 1.4 cents a litre.

Market highlights

U.S inventories weigh on the markets

While speculators have been groping for positive news in the oil markets, they have been coming up with disappointing results, and that includes the latest U.S inventory reports that signal that the U.S is starting to fill up its coffers with new oil.

      U.S crude inventories increased Wednesday last week by another three million barrels, adding to a potential glut of oil south of the border.

     Gasoline inventories also increased in spite of lower refiner capacity. Gasoline rose by 2.5 million barrels as refiner capacity dropped to 87.8 percent. With a drop in the capacity due to refinery shut-downs for maintenance, it was unusual to see gasoline inventories building with refinery spigots turned off.

       It may also signal a slightly bigger drop in demand as consumers may have been curtailed from using fuel as a result of foul late winter weather.

      U.S domestic output increased in the last week, adding another 13,000 barrels a day to overall U.S production of oil.

Canadian dollar sinks again

The Canadian dollar lost ground again to Trump’s call for increased tariffs against Canadian steel and aluminum helped support refined prices.

      With the Canadian dollar losing almost three cents against the U.S greenback, refined prices also lost roughly 1.6 cents a litre on all refined fuel prices.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, February 15, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 5.3 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel shows a drop of 5.6 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of 5.1 cents a litre.

Market highlights

U.S domestic output hits ten million a day

One week later than predicted, U.S domestic oil production hit 10.251 million barrels a day, showing a record weekly increase to break the 10 million barrier in good fashion.

     The news was enough to spark a sell-off of oil with speculators now looking at growing production amidst cuts that were made to help support prices. Worries also centered on the fact that U.S domestic producers can come into the markets relatively quickly when the market conditions and price are right.

      U.S rig counts have also increased as small producers get back in.

U.S EIA report shows a build in refined products

Last Wednesday’s Energy Information Administration report on inventories also was front and center in this week’s slide in oil and refined prices as all major inventory groups showed robust growth as refiner capacity climbed back up to 92.5 per cent capacity.

     Gasoline inventories added 3.4 million barrels, while distillate also climbed by 3.9 million barrels, a possible signal of weakening demand as the markets concentrated on the March buying contract.

Next week’s outlook

While numbers are now showing just about another cent down for all fuels for next week, all is really going to count on the next U.S Energy Information Administration report to confirm further breaks to consumers for next week.

     Any build in crude, gasoline or distillate this time around may force oil prices south of present levels and possibly signal further growth into a possible glut of oil south of the border.

     Watch the Baker Hughes rig count that comes out on Friday as well that may still signal the entry of smaller producers into the U.S shale markets.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil    

Price changes for Thursday, February 8th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 3.4 cents a litre.

*Diesel shows a drop of 2 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of 1.9 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Market speculators focus of U.S domestic output

The retreat in oil price this week may be blamed by some on the fall of the stock market yesterday, but that’s not necessarily the case...

      Stocks recovered the next day in the market correction, but oil still showed a retreat in today’s trading with strong indications that traders were focused more on the growth in U.S domestic output, due to hit ten million barrels a day either this week, or next.

      The mythological number needs just 80,000 barrels to hit the mark.

      That number will probably be achieved in short order with the addition of another seven rigs in the overall U.S rig count on Friday that shows a steady growth of smaller producers getting in while oil prices are up.

       The next few months are going to be interesting to watch as oil prices try to strike a new balance of new, smaller shale producers trying to get a fair price against the former OPEC super oil power in the markets. If oil goes low, OPEC loses as well as smaller producers and oil instability will result.

       Prices will be in flux until then with more risk to the downside as chances of outside factors influencing OPEC pricing decisions become moot with additional U.S capacity.

Market focuses away from heating/stove oils

With February comes the March buying contract and thoughts of traders switch from heating, stove oils and other distillates like Diesel to the promise of  warmer spring weather and strength in demand for Gasoline.

     Often this time of year, what becomes more noticeable in the price changes is the fact that distillates are dropping more this week than Gasoline, a sure sign that relief from winter is on the way if not because of anything else but the promise of spring.

     While numbers there are dropping, note some support for gasoline as the drop this week shows some sign of “strength” as the drop is not so prevalent.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, February 1st, 2018

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for price changes for this Thursday, February 1st:

*Heating/stove oils show an increase of 8/10ths of a cent.
*Diesel shows an increase of 1.2 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of 1.2 cents a litre as well.

Market highlight

Oil hits a wall?
While oil prices have being showing a steady rise as of late with people like myself waiting for U.S domestic production to respond, strong signs are emerging that we might be hitting the wall on further increases to oil prices.
     Cracks started appearing this week in speculators upwards trading of oil prices that may have been partly influenced by a huge growth in domestic production last week that, in itself, may have led to a decline in prices the past two days of market trading.
With oil prices butting heads with $70 US a barrel oil, it was long expected that U.S domestic production would soon ramp up on prices alone and help add a buttress to rising prices.
     Last week may have been the turning point.
     With U.S domestic set to hit 10 million barrels a day as soon as this week, speculators are starting to pull back on bets for rising oil and the past two days have shown oil retreating back to $68 US on "fears" that U.S domestic is beginning to take off.
     While it may be of no benefit this week for consumers here, the real benefits will be garnered as soon as next week if inventory reports confirm further increases to U.S domestic production figures tomorrow.

I'll keep it at that for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Price changes for Thursday, January 25th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this week's price changes:

*Heating and stove oils to drop by 8/10ths of a cent a litre.
*Diesel to drop by 1.1 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline to increase by 1.6 cents a litre.

Market highlights

OPEC meetings in Oman
News out of Oman this evening that must put a smile on the faces of anyone dealing in Middle East commodities as OPEC members are agreeable to continuing their production cuts well past 2018.
     The cuts by OPEC producers were supposed to expire in 2018, but members are now in agreement that "much more needs to be done" to help bring the oil markets back to balance, and that their cuts seem to be bringing some redress to that end.

API report shows a build
The American Petroleum Institute reported a build in inventories of both oil and gasoline products after today's market close, but the real news will probably come in tomorrow's US EIA inventory report noon Wednesday.
      The API reported a build of 4.7 million barrels, while gasoline showed a build of 4.1 million barrels.
      The inventory report was enough to temper gains in oil prices in aftermarket trading.

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for January 18, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils show a half cent a litre increase.

*Diesel fuel shows an increase of 7/10ths of a cent a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of 2.3 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Demand for world oil rising?

Some hints in the news this week may bring some a little hope for rising oil prices, but again it’s the potential influence of U.S domestic shale production that keeps things a little tempered.

            News reports out of China are implying a growing demand again as their economy ramps up, but it’s their neighbor to the south, India, that seems to be drawing more attention as the Asian country seems to be importing more oil that usual to meet its growing oil refining sector.

            Indian imports of oil have reportedly hit close to 4.8 million barrels a day into a country that only a few short years ago, was distantly thought of as a potential reason for increasing world demand and a still very young but growing economy.

U.S rig count rises again

The rig count south of the border is starting to show more signs of growth in what may be the first real sign of a response to rising world oil prices.

            The Baker Hughes rig count this past Friday saw an additional fifteen rigs go back to work with ten of those specifically searching for oil. The other five pursued natural gas, but no doubt would have oil as a residual to their production.

           With oil prices hitting $70 US for Brent this week and $64 US for West Texas Intermediate, there’s plenty of room for speculation.

            But the rig count may itself be the reason why we may yet see a more cautious market approach to the $70 US a barrel level. A second week of robust rig count growth may be enough to signal a retreat after this Friday as it could be seen as a sign of growing U.S output and a hedge against OPEC production cuts.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

Price changes for Thursday, December 28th, 2017

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes. Due to the fact that there was no published data for today’s trading, I have made a best “guesstimate” that is probably low, based on the performance of oil today.

*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 1.1 cents a litre.

*Diesel shows an increase of 1.5 cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of 3.4 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Libyan disruption bites markets today

Oil showed a steady increase to day as an important Libyan pipeline went up in flames taking close to 100,000 barrels of exports offline in a tightening oil market. Brent crude rose almost $1.20 US a barrel on the news.

Gasoline inventories up, but not a lot

Gasoline inventories showed another increase in inventory levels, but with rising capacity of close on 94%, it didn’t rise as compared to the two weeks previous. That signalled an increase in demand ahead of the important Christmas travel season. Demand was shown to have increased as gasoline only increased in inventories by 1.7 million barrels compared to the previous weeks’ 5.4 million barrel build.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Price changes for Thursday, December 21st, 2017

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for price changes for this Thursday:

*Heating/stove oils show an increase of 2/10ths of a cent a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows down a half cent, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 1.7 cents a litre.

Merry Christmas to us, wa?...

Market highlights

Inventories increase again
U.S EIA inventories of gasoline increased again last week as gasoline demand remained a little weak ahead of the Christmas travel season and refiner capacity remained high.
Gasoline inventories showed a gain of 5.7 million barrels against a draw of 5.1 million barrels of crude, but refiner capacity remained high at 93.4 percentage points.
Distillates dropped in 1.4 million barrels as winter demand remains a factor in support of heating and stove oil prices.

Canadian dollar slips
The Canadian dollar slipped against it's chief competitor over the past week as the U.S Greenback showed some strength over the last week and a half, losing close on a penny against the U.S buck.

I'll leave it at that for this week. I'll still be here over Christmas as long as the trading continues. Numbers may be off slightly with the markets closed for so many days, but we'll try to be as accurate as possible for the trip home.

Be safe out there! Enjoy your time with family and leave the keys if you plan on "celebrating" the Epiphany!

Regards,

George and family

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil