Numbers confirmed...Heating,Stove and Gasoline to Drop...

They say that "When you're in Rome, do as the Romans do..." That being the case, my numbers are already indicating a drop at the pump and heating truck level to come to Newfoundland and Labrador cnsumers as early as September 15th 12:01 A.M.

There's not a lot of rocket science to the fact that,if I have the numbers then, they must have them too.

Numbers show that heating/stove oil pricing will drop back another 4.41 cents a litre while gasoline will drop back by 5.3 cents a litre.Why are they waiting?

Thankfully, because spots on heating and stove oils dropped again this month, we're now at a situation where we are almost 5 cents a litre below last years levels. I'm not saying that we're out of the woods on the heating pricing issue for the winter though.

Far from it because, in essence, we got lucky as consumers....

We're in a bit of a "null" now where ,traditionally, we have seen heating and stove oil pricing begin to increase in price, to peak sometime in February.The last time I saw pricing drop back in this manner was in the aftermath of the September 11th attacks when airline traffic went to crap and distillate inventory rose as a result.

With a very contentious situation with Iran and the European Union negotiations over Iran's nuclear program still going, any turnabout in negotiations may very well leave Iran using it's 4.5 million barrel per day oil production capacity as a weapon against the west in the event of a series of economic sanctions placed on it by the United Nations.They may not shut off the spigots but, they can very well turn back output and that's enough to reverse the downwards trend in heating oil pricing we're witness to right now.

Guess we have to take another "wait and see" attitude before we're free and clear for the winter season.

Keep the blankets handy though...

Regards,

George