How it all worked out...

I guess by the time you all drop in on this note, you will have already heard where the numbers went; mostly up. I guess we dodged a bullet when gas didn't move as I thought it would, but how close was it in the end?

From my media friends at VOCM, I got details of the hit on heating and stove oils and, as it turns out, with seven days now reporting here, I was out by something in the order of 3/100ths of a cent. My final number aloowed for an increase of 7.71 cents. That means that the decrease we all got from the removal of "jet" from the summer mix, was eradicated in one stroke of the pen.

What's worse is that our fishers and transportation sectors got the perverbial kick in the teeth overnight with an allowable 9.2 cents a litre increase to diesel pricing. That's why I say in my releases whenever I talk about the heating/stove oil numbers that "the number may also be pointing the way that diesel will also be going", in this case, UP...

Gas was a little different as the volitility of the markets got to me on this fuel.In the end I had an allowable of 4.1 cents a litre, if you include taxation, or 3.6 without the tax component. The interrupter works on the basis of a four cent a litre movement up or down as measured over seven days.

I usually call my shot with five days reporting so everyone can be a step ahead, particularly when it comes to heating and stove oils and to give the media a chance to report and get the word out to everyone...

My margin for error is 3/10ths of a cent and, with the volitility I figured that I would get the word out on a chance increase in case I might be off just a little; in this case by that extra 1/10th of a cent that would have moved my numbers up to four cents even on gasoline. Guess I "missed it by that much".

Hence, we dodge a bullet for this week with pricing for gasoline still on track for a possible 3.6 cent a litre plus taxes increase coming for next week at the regular setting of prices.

I just hope no one was inconvenienced by my call on this one.

Oh well, it's off to bed and call Randy Simms in the morning!

Sometimes, a tenth of a cent can ruin you...lol

Regards,

George Murphy