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Friday, July 10, 2009

The week so far...

Here's a little update on the numbers I have. After the disappointing finish up to Tuesday, I think maybe I should keep everyone in tune as to what is transpiring out there...

First off, as regards to the possibility earlier this week that the PUB may use the interrupter formula, I'm not surprised that they never.

I'm more surprised that they didn't have the market volatility to show a more significant drop that would have allowed the formula to be used. In other words, that their numbers reflected more than four cents for the formula to kick in.

In the end, my numbers showed an exact 3.77 cents a litre downwards, just shy of the required four cents for interruption to occur.

Yes, it sucks to be out by that much but, that's the rule that is used.

An important point here to remember is that, while other jurisdictions see an almost immediate drop in prices relected in their respective markets because of the competative nature of their markets, our numbers are usually hit the pumps roughly a week later if they meet criteria for interruption. (We can only wish for competition here in Newfoundland and Labrador to be the final arbitor of the retail petroleum price!)

Conversely, whenever there is an increase in other respective markets, these increases are also immediate to their various areas and we then see any respective increases about a week after the event occurs. Here, we also take a two week (one week during interrupt scenarios) average of price movements before any alowable increase or decrease is passed on and that timeframe is also taken into account simply to allow any movements in pricing to "work itself out" as during the Katrina and Rita hurricane events of August and September 2005.

Other centers saw gouging to the point that some retailers in the Stratford, Ontario region charged upwards of $2.25 a litre for gasoline.

Halifax and the area there saw $1.89 a litre until word got out that the prices at the pump outweighed the spot prices of the day and we got onto them.

The fact is, is that we hit $1.48 a litre here in St. John's because we were regulated. Prices didn't change as much as the companies wanted them to fir the simple reason that the PUB waited an extra day to let the market work itself out, and it did.

I'm getting off-track here

Anyway, just to keep you all up to speed on what I have with nine days done and still five more days to go:

  • Heating and stove oils are pointing down by 3.50 cents per litre.
  • Diesel is down by 3.4 a litre and...
  • Gasoline now shows down by 5.1 cents a litre.

My guess for the result after the full fourteen days are in?

  • Heating and stove oils down by 4.5 cents a litre.
  • Diesel down by 5.0 cents a litre and...
  • Gasoline down by 6.5 cents a litre.

See how close they'll be after Tuesday night!

Anyone else care to take a shot at it?



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