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Saturday, October 24, 2009

Update #1
Interruption to all fuel prices likely
Just a warning here that you're going to get a few notes from me between now and Tuesday night simply because, by the look of things, we're going to see an interruption to fuel prices by this Thursday coming.
I think everyone knows that, in order for fuel price interruption to occur, you have to have seven days where the average price movement is four cents a litre over or under the previous price setting.
First off, numbers from Wednesday of one week to the Tuesday of the following week are used to determine if fuel price interruption is warranted. In this case, I have data that covers from Wednesday the 21st to Sunday, the 25th. The Friday numbers are used for both Saturday and Sunday as there is no market trading on those days. Cut-off on Tuesday, there is a two day time frame for notification purposes and we see price changes on Thursday.
Since the last price setting, I have a recorded movement greater than required for the five days so far. Two more days to figure in here yet, but with oil trading over $80 US a barrel, I don't think there will be a mass sell-off before the Tuesday evening cut-off, which is the seventh day of data needed to come up with the final number.
Here's what I have so far, keeping in mind that I have to get two more days of data.
  • Heating and stove oils show an upwards movement of 4.48 cents a litre.
  • Diesel shows upwards movement by 5.3 cents a litre, and...
  • Gasoline shows upwards movement of 6.4 cents a litre.

You might want to forward this note to everyone you know. With two more days to go, there could be larger numbers to come.

I'll keep you all up to date on this. Next posting will be Monday evening so, check the blog then for another notice.



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