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Tuesday, November 20, 2012

What a week in the markets so far!

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for price changes this week, but there is a little disclaimer for this one!...
Data comes from just six days out of the seven needed...
Keep in mind the winter blend is being used for heating oil and diesel fuel, so, even with all the numbers, they're still off somewhat.

·         Heating and stove oils show an added 4/10ths of a cent.
·         Diesel shows an increase of 3.1 cents a litre..
·         Regular gasoline shows a drop of 7/10ths of a cent.
·         The reformulated gasoline blend shows the opposite, an added 7/10ths of a cent.

Local highlights
·         No sign of the heating rebate program. Still no notice of the heating rebate program, although we’re told it will be coming “shortly”. I’m wondering how come we have to wait for the announcement when government should just make the program a permanent fixture.
·         U.S oil and gas production set to increase to self-sustaining levels by 2017 and number one in the world by 2020. I’m surprised that no one in the media has picked up on the impact of the shale oil and gas revolution that may very well impact our southern market. IF the US becomes self-sufficient, and domestic oil production picks up worldwide, as predicted what does that do to our price, let alone the hope of getting oil companies to come in and do other offshore work. More to follow on this, as the implications are obvious!

Market highlights
·         Middle East violence adds volatility to the markets. Oil up slightly one day and down again the next. The promised violence in the Middle east always a factor in oil prices, doesn’t seem to be having too much of an effect on prices, even though there is some correlation. Other incidents have led to much larger increases in oil. The promise of a possible halt to violence may be a late factor.
·         European Union enters another recession. Escalating unemployed numbers, with Greece setting a new record of over 25% unemployed, has pushed the EU back into recession, at least on paper.
·         Crude oil supplies up on latest US inventory report, but gasoline and distillate inventories take a hit.
·         Hurricane Sandy recovery still ongoing. Two refineries left to bring online. Production totaling 300K from both.
·         US domestic production hits another record. The 5.1 million barrels per day figure of last year was shattered in an announcement from Bloomberg’s last week when they reported a huge increase to 6.7 million barrels a day of oil production.

That’s it for this week!

George Murphy
Group researcher/member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyMHA

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