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Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Price changes for Thursday, November 6th, 2014

Hi to everyone,

Here's what I have for price changes this week. Keep in mind that my heating oil and Diesel numbers may be off somewhat as a result of winter blending!

In the meantime, not too much in changes this week, namely be cause of the poor performance of the Canadian dollar against the US greenback. Our "beloved" loonie lost a good 2.6 cents against the US buck in the last six days and that's accounting for a lot.

Heating and stove oils show an increase of 55/100ths of a cent a litre.
Diesel shows an added 1.3 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of just 9/10ths of a cent a litre.

An important note here with the numbers.
While there's not much of a drop to be shown with distillate prices, it's important to remember that we are in the winter demand season. In spite of lower oil, there has been limited impacts on both heating oil and diesel prices. Draws on US inventory aren't helping the matter.

Gasoline a little different as demand remains flat, even with lower prices. refiner capacity is a full seven percent below the normal due to refiners switching from gasoline refinement to distillates. When production resumes, this should add to inventories and bring prices down further.

In the meantime, I'm looking with interest at tomorrow's inventory report from the EIA, sometime around noon release on that.

Lastly, on gasoline.

Spot prices reflect the start of what may come next week. While they averaged about 67 cents this last session, today ended off about 65 cents. If that keeps going like it is, look for about another two cents "guess-timate" for next week to come.

I think the Saudi's are beginning to go for broke with the discounts on oil they're offering their US customers. The advent of huge growth in US domestic production is finally putting the pressure on OPEC pricing and the Saudi's are forced to discount to maintain their market share. Mind you, we're seeing the benefits of that and also witnessing some dissent amongst other OPEC producers who think that Saudi Arabia alone should be forced to take the majority of any production cut, should OPEC implement a cut on November 27th.

I won't overload you all with what I'm thinking is going to happen over the next few weeks. If you have any questions, drop me a note.

That's it for this week!

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

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