Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes.
Keep in mind that this week's numbers may be off somewhat as a result of today's missing data. I had to take my "best guess" on spot prices today just based on oil price closure. Six days of this week's data is good however, so the numbers are probably not that far off from the actual that may occur.
*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.3 cents a litre.
*Diesel shows an increase of 1.8 cents, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 3.2 cents a litre this week.
Market highlights
Watching and waiting
While trading in oil was lacklustre over the last week due to Christmas holidays, some data is starting to emerge from the tail end of OPEC and non-OPEC cuts due to be implemented in January. Already, some drillers are back in the field and the latest rig count seems to confirm in no uncertain terms, that they're headed back to take advantage of a hole left in the production of oil.
I think OPEC has forgotten that just a year and half ago, approval was sought and granted, to oil producers in the US to step up exports if the time and market conditions were ever to allow.
They did, once the shale boom hit and oil prices remained over $100 US a barrel.
This week saw another gain the US rotary rig count with the shale industry adding another 13 rigs to working inventory.
I'm waiting on further data from the US Energy Information Administration on Thursday that will most likely see another increase in US domestic production, which last week, saw production hit 8.797 million barrels a day.
OPEC production data
The latest data on total OPEC production on the heels of self-imposed cuts should be available sometime during the first week of January.
What is also going to be more interesting to watch is to see how much both non-OPEC producers who signed on to cuts and non-OPEC producers out there altogether, are doing to either reign in on production, or actually beginning to produce more to meet the "shortfall" created by OPEC cuts to production.
You have to keep in mind here the simple fact of capitalism in all this equation: a company is supposed to make money for its shareholders and those companies can't do that, or attract investors, with a plan that doesn't show growth. That's going to be an important "motivator" in all this.
Let's see who comes out on top...
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, December 27, 2016
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, December 22,2016
Hi to all,
Here’s what I have
for price changes for Thursday, December 22,2016.
*Heating and stove
oils show an increase of 1.2 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows
an increase of 1.6 cents a litre, and
*Gasoline shows an
increase of 2.8 cents a litre.
Market highlights
US rotary rig count
increases
US drillers are heading back to the oilfields, and OPEC should be worried...
While US drilling numbers increasing at a steady pace, this week increasing by
another 12 rigs from last week’s increase of 26, others are simply waiting to
get “back in” after they get a sense of market and oil price stability. OPEC
should show some sense of worry, knowing that there was going to be a measured
response against cuts.
US domestic oil
output shows a sharp spike upwards
US domestic oil output also showed a marked response on the heels of last
week’s announced cuts. As predicted would happen, US domestic production
increased by another 99,000 barrels a day just in the first five days after the
announced cuts and the Saturday agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers.
One
would easily interpret that increase with an immediate impact on prices. While
not an extremely large increase, it’s still early in the going. Expect to see
more players to enter the market with oil up a rough $2 US on the week.
The
most likely reason for the spike in output was the simple fact that fields
which had initially been shut down as a result of the June ’15 price collapse.
With oil production hitting 9.6 million barrels that month, US domestic has
just hit 8.797 million barrels a day since in comparison.
But OPEC should be aware that there a re a lot of closed off spigots that can
be turned on real quick if oil gets much higher.
That’s it for this week, with all this coming from me with a “Merry Christmas”
along with the “warmest” of holiday wishes!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter
@GeorgeMurphyOil
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, December 15, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's
price changes, keeping in mind that the winter blending may throw off Diesel
and Heating/stove oils a little from the actual that may occur.
*Heating and stove oils show a drop
of just 6/10ths of a cent/Litre....
*Diesel shows a drop of a penny, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 1.8 cents at the pumps.
*Diesel shows a drop of a penny, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 1.8 cents at the pumps.
Market highlights
US rig count shows an increase
On the heels of OPEC and non-OPEC countries getting together in Vienna, Austria last week for their production cut meetings, those who joined in cuts should not be surprised to fins a very responsive US domestic oil industry begin to kick things into high gear.
The US rig count, as I suspected, increased by double digits last week, with the US drilling industry adding 27 new rigs piercing grounds for oil.
As the numbers suggest, that raises the stakes in a game of competition between US domestic production and it's ability to try and fill a gap in almost 1.8 million barrels in cuts by both OPEC and non-OPEC producers last week.
Numbers on exactly how much oil will be added to US domestic production will probably keep increasing to a point that it could negate OPEC cuts.
After all, it's not just the US that they have to worry about now.
Other countries left to the sidelines with the initial fall in oil, will also be quick to respond. Equador was another country left at a high water mark before prices fell, so it should be widely expected that others will respond in kind to a hole left in the markets for product.
On the heels of OPEC and non-OPEC countries getting together in Vienna, Austria last week for their production cut meetings, those who joined in cuts should not be surprised to fins a very responsive US domestic oil industry begin to kick things into high gear.
The US rig count, as I suspected, increased by double digits last week, with the US drilling industry adding 27 new rigs piercing grounds for oil.
As the numbers suggest, that raises the stakes in a game of competition between US domestic production and it's ability to try and fill a gap in almost 1.8 million barrels in cuts by both OPEC and non-OPEC producers last week.
Numbers on exactly how much oil will be added to US domestic production will probably keep increasing to a point that it could negate OPEC cuts.
After all, it's not just the US that they have to worry about now.
Other countries left to the sidelines with the initial fall in oil, will also be quick to respond. Equador was another country left at a high water mark before prices fell, so it should be widely expected that others will respond in kind to a hole left in the markets for product.
I'll leave it at that for this
week!
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, December 06, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, December 8th, 2016... and OPEC commentary!
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for price changes now that the final numbers are in. As I thought, there was not much change from lasts evening's post.
*Heating and stove oils still show an increase of 4.5 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an increase of 4.9 cents a litre at the pumps, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of 5.5 cents a litre coming this Thursday morning.
Market highlights
OPEC makes a deal
*In spite of the odds, OPEC members have signed a deal that cuts production between its members by a whole 1.2 million barrels, but as the news says today with oil, a lot of people still have their doubts and await proof that the deal will hold.
While members of OPEC have signed on, the real proof will come with "compliance"- a vitally important factor in ensuring that OPEC itself still has the influence in the oil market that I still believe it has lost.
Even though the deal has been delivered, latest figures from OPEC indicate that November month is one of the heaviest months that OPEC has produced oil, and all in spite of meeting over an agreed to cut. OPEC produced nearly 34.2 million barrels a day compared to 33.8 million barrels a day in October.
Meanwhile, non-OPEC oil producing nations like Russia, will meet with OPEC tomorrow to discuss an arrangement to cut production as well. Russia produced 11.2 million barrels a day last month, the highest in thirty years.
Will oil hold? I don't think so...
*While OPEC members remain hopeful that prices will increase like they have, already sentiments against OPEC members not cheating are beginning to permeate the market with doubt. With a history of OPEC members cheating on their own quotas, and rivalries between Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia abounding, there is rank suspicion between members as well as an underlying distrust. Saudi Arabia and Iran face off against each other over a civil war in Yemen, while Iraq and Iran have ideological differences that stretch generations.
Pare with that the idea that others await on the sidelines to step in where others have backed out, leaving some with "breathing space" and a chance to recover. OPEC had shale producers on the ropes, coming within a hair of knocking the US oil industry back to the 1990's where OPEC first went all out in flooding the oil markets, stripping the US of just about all of its market-share. Now frackers have been given the time to adjust, control costs and lower them in a lot of cases.
The shalers will step in and US domestic response will be strong and pick up the loose ends. Other non-OPEC producers will smell an opportunity to recover lost share and will also respond. It will be hard for the Russians not to respond in kind.
What has forced OPEC to flinch first will get them in the end. OPEC blinked when it became readily apparent that they themselves have gotten too used to the revenues garnered from oil resources. That's a lesson that everyone has failed to notice yet: in spite of OPEC oil producers being completely different in one context, they're really no different than any other corporation who has long tried to corner a market...then failed.
Call this a "commentary" this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Here's what I have for price changes now that the final numbers are in. As I thought, there was not much change from lasts evening's post.
*Heating and stove oils still show an increase of 4.5 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an increase of 4.9 cents a litre at the pumps, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of 5.5 cents a litre coming this Thursday morning.
Market highlights
OPEC makes a deal
*In spite of the odds, OPEC members have signed a deal that cuts production between its members by a whole 1.2 million barrels, but as the news says today with oil, a lot of people still have their doubts and await proof that the deal will hold.
While members of OPEC have signed on, the real proof will come with "compliance"- a vitally important factor in ensuring that OPEC itself still has the influence in the oil market that I still believe it has lost.
Even though the deal has been delivered, latest figures from OPEC indicate that November month is one of the heaviest months that OPEC has produced oil, and all in spite of meeting over an agreed to cut. OPEC produced nearly 34.2 million barrels a day compared to 33.8 million barrels a day in October.
Meanwhile, non-OPEC oil producing nations like Russia, will meet with OPEC tomorrow to discuss an arrangement to cut production as well. Russia produced 11.2 million barrels a day last month, the highest in thirty years.
Will oil hold? I don't think so...
*While OPEC members remain hopeful that prices will increase like they have, already sentiments against OPEC members not cheating are beginning to permeate the market with doubt. With a history of OPEC members cheating on their own quotas, and rivalries between Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia abounding, there is rank suspicion between members as well as an underlying distrust. Saudi Arabia and Iran face off against each other over a civil war in Yemen, while Iraq and Iran have ideological differences that stretch generations.
Pare with that the idea that others await on the sidelines to step in where others have backed out, leaving some with "breathing space" and a chance to recover. OPEC had shale producers on the ropes, coming within a hair of knocking the US oil industry back to the 1990's where OPEC first went all out in flooding the oil markets, stripping the US of just about all of its market-share. Now frackers have been given the time to adjust, control costs and lower them in a lot of cases.
The shalers will step in and US domestic response will be strong and pick up the loose ends. Other non-OPEC producers will smell an opportunity to recover lost share and will also respond. It will be hard for the Russians not to respond in kind.
What has forced OPEC to flinch first will get them in the end. OPEC blinked when it became readily apparent that they themselves have gotten too used to the revenues garnered from oil resources. That's a lesson that everyone has failed to notice yet: in spite of OPEC oil producers being completely different in one context, they're really no different than any other corporation who has long tried to corner a market...then failed.
Call this a "commentary" this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, December 1, 2016
Hello!,
Here's what I have for this week's
price changes.
Keep in mind that these numbers
this time around for gasoline may be off a little from the actual the PUB may
set, considering they picked up more volatility than my numbers did last week!
*Heating and stove oils show an
increase of just 2/10ths of a cent a litre.
*Diesel shows an increase of 7/10ths and...
*Gasoline shows an added 1.5 cents a litre at the pumps.
*Diesel shows an increase of 7/10ths and...
*Gasoline shows an added 1.5 cents a litre at the pumps.
*Don't be surprised if you see the
PUB back down from last week's numbers. While I show an increase, it may be
part of the volatility I missed out on LAST WEEK'S price change.
Market highlights
OPEC deal in doubt...Again
Russia remains non-committal in a production cut, while OPEC members Iraq and Iran are still holding their cards to their chests. Both Iran and Iraq want to reach their production limits before they institute any cut or freeze to production, while OPEC members Nigeria and Libya also want to be left out of any production cut the group may come up with at tomorrow's meeting.
Interesting to watch, but oil has shown some pretty heavy volatility while OPEC itself tries to hammer out any deal.
Also entering into market thinking is the possibility that US domestic production has shown some resiliency and may be quick to respond to "market needs" should a cut from OPEC come into play.
Russia remains non-committal in a production cut, while OPEC members Iraq and Iran are still holding their cards to their chests. Both Iran and Iraq want to reach their production limits before they institute any cut or freeze to production, while OPEC members Nigeria and Libya also want to be left out of any production cut the group may come up with at tomorrow's meeting.
Interesting to watch, but oil has shown some pretty heavy volatility while OPEC itself tries to hammer out any deal.
Also entering into market thinking is the possibility that US domestic production has shown some resiliency and may be quick to respond to "market needs" should a cut from OPEC come into play.
I'm going to leave it at that for
now.
More tomorrow when the OPEC meeting
breaks away.
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, November 24th, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes, with all data in:
*Heating and stove oil show an increase of 2.0 cents per litre for Thursday....
*Diesel shows an added 2.6 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of a penny a litre.
Here's what I have for this week's price changes, with all data in:
*Heating and stove oil show an increase of 2.0 cents per litre for Thursday....
*Diesel shows an added 2.6 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of a penny a litre.
Market highlights
OPEC keeps talking
OPEC members are seemingly coming close to an agreed set of cuts to production and that seems to have spurred prices for oil upwards over the last few days. But what I'm watching for is OPEC member compliance with a round of cuts that still makes me not believe that they ever will take hold and help support the price of oil.
Consensus I am hearing is OPEC leaning toward a possible four to five percent cut in overall output that will bring OPEC total daily production down a rough 1.5 million barrels a day.
If anything, oil prices may be supported for a very short timeframe, and that's when I believe two things will happen: US domestic production will kick in, and OPEC members will take advantage and cheat on those self-imposed cuts.
Rumours in the markets have OPEC allowing fellow members Iraq and Iran to produce at present output and not cut production in order to have them sign on to a cuts agreement. The deal set to be signed at the next meeting of OPEC November 25th will be a "make or break" deal for the organisation and may be the hedge-point by which OPEC stands or falls.
I'll leave it at that for this week, but I'll be watching the oil news with much interest this weekend!
I'll keep you all up to date.
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
OPEC keeps talking
OPEC members are seemingly coming close to an agreed set of cuts to production and that seems to have spurred prices for oil upwards over the last few days. But what I'm watching for is OPEC member compliance with a round of cuts that still makes me not believe that they ever will take hold and help support the price of oil.
Consensus I am hearing is OPEC leaning toward a possible four to five percent cut in overall output that will bring OPEC total daily production down a rough 1.5 million barrels a day.
If anything, oil prices may be supported for a very short timeframe, and that's when I believe two things will happen: US domestic production will kick in, and OPEC members will take advantage and cheat on those self-imposed cuts.
Rumours in the markets have OPEC allowing fellow members Iraq and Iran to produce at present output and not cut production in order to have them sign on to a cuts agreement. The deal set to be signed at the next meeting of OPEC November 25th will be a "make or break" deal for the organisation and may be the hedge-point by which OPEC stands or falls.
I'll leave it at that for this week, but I'll be watching the oil news with much interest this weekend!
I'll keep you all up to date.
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, November 17, 2016
Hi to all,
Here are the final numbers for this
week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oil to drop by
9/10ths of a cent a litre....
*Diesel fuel to drop by 1.1 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline to drop by 4.3 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel to drop by 1.1 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline to drop by 4.3 cents a litre.
Market highlights
OPEC swings the market
There's no doubt that while OPEC is
losing some market influence, there's no doubt who carries the influence within
the group itself.
After a wild downward swing in oil yesterday, Saudi Arabia warned its fellow OPEC members that if they all didn't comply with a scheduled cut in production, it would again flood the markets with cheap oil by opening their own spigots, raising their own production levels to hit over eleven million barrels a day.
With that threat, OPEC members are believed to be starting to fall in line with the idea of cuts to production and then the speculators moved in, pumping up oil prices today by over $2 US a barrel.
Refined product prices also responded, moving upwards at the end of the day, but still not enough to stop predicted decreases to consumer prices here in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Meetings between technical staff from member OPEC nations moved up their November 25th meetings to November 21st in response to the Saudi threat. That's nine days out from OPEC's regular meeting on cuts due to happen November 30th.
After a wild downward swing in oil yesterday, Saudi Arabia warned its fellow OPEC members that if they all didn't comply with a scheduled cut in production, it would again flood the markets with cheap oil by opening their own spigots, raising their own production levels to hit over eleven million barrels a day.
With that threat, OPEC members are believed to be starting to fall in line with the idea of cuts to production and then the speculators moved in, pumping up oil prices today by over $2 US a barrel.
Refined product prices also responded, moving upwards at the end of the day, but still not enough to stop predicted decreases to consumer prices here in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Meetings between technical staff from member OPEC nations moved up their November 25th meetings to November 21st in response to the Saudi threat. That's nine days out from OPEC's regular meeting on cuts due to happen November 30th.
US domestic production continues to
rise
For the fifth week in a row, US domestic production has increased again, this time by another 240,000 barrels a day in response to rising prices.
Latest data seems to confirm that the shale industry has indeed started to get some measure of control over costs and have responded to the sensitivities of prices around $45 US in order to break even.
Also to note here is what appears to me to be a sharp increase in a very short time. If OPEC cuts, look to the shale industry south of the border to respond in short order as well.
For the fifth week in a row, US domestic production has increased again, this time by another 240,000 barrels a day in response to rising prices.
Latest data seems to confirm that the shale industry has indeed started to get some measure of control over costs and have responded to the sensitivities of prices around $45 US in order to break even.
Also to note here is what appears to me to be a sharp increase in a very short time. If OPEC cuts, look to the shale industry south of the border to respond in short order as well.
I'll leave it at that for this
week...
Regards and pass the word on the
numbers!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, November 08, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, November 10, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's
price changes, now that all the data is in...
A reminder: My heating, stove oil
and Diesel numbers may be off somewhat due to winter blending! Use them as an
indicator as to the direction these fuels could go, and not the actual that may
occur.
...
*Heating and stove oils show a drop
of 4.3 cents a litre.
*Diesel shows a drop of 4.0 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 1.4 cents a litre.
*Diesel shows a drop of 4.0 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 1.4 cents a litre.
Highlights
Colonial pipeline back online
Late Sunday saw the return of operation of the Colonial pipeline that resulted in a short-lived spike in gasoline prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Tuesday/Wednesday of last week. As soon as word was received that the disruption would not last that long, and that operations of the pipeline would re-start, spots ended up in a headlong retreat after rising close to four cents a litre in trading.
Spot prices for gasoline have since returned to "pre-disruption" levels.
Late Sunday saw the return of operation of the Colonial pipeline that resulted in a short-lived spike in gasoline prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Tuesday/Wednesday of last week. As soon as word was received that the disruption would not last that long, and that operations of the pipeline would re-start, spots ended up in a headlong retreat after rising close to four cents a litre in trading.
Spot prices for gasoline have since returned to "pre-disruption" levels.
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Wednesday, November 02, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, November 3, 2016
Hi to all,
Here’s what I have
for this week’s price changes:
*Heating and stove
oils to drop by 8/10ths of a cent per litre.
*Diesel to drop by
an even penny, and...
*Gasoline shows a
drop of just 6/10ths of a cent.
Market highlights
Another closure of
the Columbian pipeline disrupts gasoline output
An explosion and
fire has again closed the Colonial pipeline that runs from the US Gulf of
Mexico refining and export areas to the US northeast, causing a sharp increase
in gasoline spot prices on the New York mercantile exchange today that may not
be felt by Newfoundland and Labrador consumers until they hit the pumps next
week IF the line isn’t repaired soon.
Before today, numbers showed a small decrease of a penny a litre, but the fire
and explosion that took one life has resulted in a sharp increase in gasoline
prices as a result of a “supply disruption”.
“We’ll see how it goes in the markets over the next couple of days, but prices
are already showing close to a four cent a litre increase could happen if
today’s closing prices carry through the week”.
Repairs are estimated to take until Saturday at the earliest to bring the line
back into full operation again.
OPEC deal could
fall apart?
OPEC’s deal to make
a cut to production may already be under threat as Iran and now Iraq, are
expressing dissatisfaction with having to institute cuts before they reach
maximum “pre-war” production levels.
That played into the markets this week allowing Brent prices to drop almost $3
US a barrel to close today at $47 and change.
Speculators are also keeping in mind that the Saudi government is looking at
raising cash through the sale of stock in the government owned Saudi Aramco oil
company, saying the only reason why the Saudi’s wanted a freeze was to raise
the share price and increase the government take.
In the meantime, OPEC meets again at the end of this month to formally
implement the limited production agreement.
Food for thought...
That’s it for this
week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter
@GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, October 27, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils to increase by 8/10ths of a cent a litre....
*Diesel fuel to increase by 1.1 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline to increase by 1.2 cents a litre.
*Heating and stove oils to increase by 8/10ths of a cent a litre....
*Diesel fuel to increase by 1.1 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline to increase by 1.2 cents a litre.
Market highlights
OPEC deal falling apart?
Already, there are internal rumblings from within OPEC on how members themselves will be able to keep any production cuts in place.
OPEC member nation, Iran has been speaking out lately on the prospects of continuing to produce to maintain and increase lost market share from sanctions placed on the country back in 2008. While "joining" with members in signing on to cuts, they don't want to institute any cuts until they reach their previous 4.7 million barrel a day output. They still have a long way to go there yet, but I'm guessing that they're still about 900K barrels off the mark.
Canadian dollar tags consumers
The drop in the Canadian dollar this week connected to lower than expected economic growth, has hit consumers this week with the Loonie losing ground against its southern cousin, the US greenback.
The Canadian dollar has lost nearly two cents against the US marker in the last three business days, costing consumers ironically 1.2 cents since last Wednesday's measure.
Bennett fiscal update this week has to "give back"...
Remember the provincial budget?
That was the document that led to a massive increase in provincial road taxes that has cost consumers and businesses alike with lost spending power and lost disposable income to spend.
It also increased the HST provincial take and increased your fuel prices a rough twenty cents a litre for every litre you bought.
It was, in essence, the province's own carbon tax...
But it's time to drop the tax back and even up the playing field again in Atlantic Canada with the latest increase in oil that has added close to $190 million into provincial coffers by the time the next budget rolls around.
Why drop it back?
Simple really...
The price of oil has increased to almost $1 US over what was projected in the budget, successfully adding an estimated $295 million into provincial coffers when the next budget comes down.
We have paid our fair share and it's time to cut the taxpayers, and business alike, a fair shake.
That's it for this week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
OPEC deal falling apart?
Already, there are internal rumblings from within OPEC on how members themselves will be able to keep any production cuts in place.
OPEC member nation, Iran has been speaking out lately on the prospects of continuing to produce to maintain and increase lost market share from sanctions placed on the country back in 2008. While "joining" with members in signing on to cuts, they don't want to institute any cuts until they reach their previous 4.7 million barrel a day output. They still have a long way to go there yet, but I'm guessing that they're still about 900K barrels off the mark.
Canadian dollar tags consumers
The drop in the Canadian dollar this week connected to lower than expected economic growth, has hit consumers this week with the Loonie losing ground against its southern cousin, the US greenback.
The Canadian dollar has lost nearly two cents against the US marker in the last three business days, costing consumers ironically 1.2 cents since last Wednesday's measure.
Bennett fiscal update this week has to "give back"...
Remember the provincial budget?
That was the document that led to a massive increase in provincial road taxes that has cost consumers and businesses alike with lost spending power and lost disposable income to spend.
It also increased the HST provincial take and increased your fuel prices a rough twenty cents a litre for every litre you bought.
It was, in essence, the province's own carbon tax...
But it's time to drop the tax back and even up the playing field again in Atlantic Canada with the latest increase in oil that has added close to $190 million into provincial coffers by the time the next budget rolls around.
Why drop it back?
Simple really...
The price of oil has increased to almost $1 US over what was projected in the budget, successfully adding an estimated $295 million into provincial coffers when the next budget comes down.
We have paid our fair share and it's time to cut the taxpayers, and business alike, a fair shake.
That's it for this week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Oil prices to rise?...Don't bet on it!
OPEC is happy...For now.
But I really don't know why they should be.
For the first time since 2008, OPEC cut production.
While the meetings in Algiers finished up yesterday with a lacklustre arrangement for fellow OPEC members to institute a "long needed" cut to production, what will it mean to the oil markets?
In an unstable world still ever dependent on oil, people can be quick to forget why oil prices have stayed low for so long, and why OPEC is hoping beyond hope that their fellow members will be happy with instituting a million barrel a day cut.
Not all OPEC members are happy with cutting.
Two OPEC member countries, namely Libya and Nigeria have to be upset with a quota that has them wondering why they have to put up with part of this million barrel a day cut in the first place. Both countries are trying to recover from instability and revolution and the last thing they possibly need is a cut to production that would hinder any recovery to their torn economies.
Nigeria, previous producers of almost 2.7 million barrels of light, sweet oil per day, is being asked to shoulder cuts while still recovering from a low output of close to 1.5 million barrels.
Libya, producers of almost 1.5 million barrels a day prior to their post-Ghadafi revolution, have only managed to scrape up a 300,000 barrels a day output and are hoping to return to full operation in the coming months.
This not the only sign that things may not go well on the oil front...
In recent months, in spite of lower oil prices, the US domestic oil industry has shown itself to be resilient in the face of low oil prices. A quick look at the numbers of rigs returning to the field is a sure sign that, if oil prices do indeed rise, their return to the fracking fields in the US Eagle Ford, Marcellus and Bakken fields are a sure bet.
Don't count out the response of US domestic response to fill in the role of a hole created by an OPEC "knee-jerk" response to lower oil prices.
Keep in mind also that any OPEC-instituted cut in production has never worked when it comes to the final read on output. OPEC has a history of over-producing and under-reporting oil production figures, so there's no reason to expect them to change dirty habits.
The markets should know this...
They're just not saying so yet...
Finally...
Gone are the halcyon days when OPEC used to institute a cut and the markets saw a meteoric rise in oil. Most times saw sharp, sudden increases to oil that were sustained and helped support oil to where it hit record heights.
That was before the days of the frack and the advent of "democratic oil". Now everyone has it, if they have a shale resource and everyone can respond to fill that oil hole.
OPEC knows this, but they forgot this very important fact.
OPEC did succeed in two things yesterday: OPEC managed to put out the sure signs that they lost the fight for market share and the fight to retain control of the price of oil.
Investor beware!
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
But I really don't know why they should be.
For the first time since 2008, OPEC cut production.
While the meetings in Algiers finished up yesterday with a lacklustre arrangement for fellow OPEC members to institute a "long needed" cut to production, what will it mean to the oil markets?
In an unstable world still ever dependent on oil, people can be quick to forget why oil prices have stayed low for so long, and why OPEC is hoping beyond hope that their fellow members will be happy with instituting a million barrel a day cut.
Not all OPEC members are happy with cutting.
Two OPEC member countries, namely Libya and Nigeria have to be upset with a quota that has them wondering why they have to put up with part of this million barrel a day cut in the first place. Both countries are trying to recover from instability and revolution and the last thing they possibly need is a cut to production that would hinder any recovery to their torn economies.
Nigeria, previous producers of almost 2.7 million barrels of light, sweet oil per day, is being asked to shoulder cuts while still recovering from a low output of close to 1.5 million barrels.
Libya, producers of almost 1.5 million barrels a day prior to their post-Ghadafi revolution, have only managed to scrape up a 300,000 barrels a day output and are hoping to return to full operation in the coming months.
This not the only sign that things may not go well on the oil front...
In recent months, in spite of lower oil prices, the US domestic oil industry has shown itself to be resilient in the face of low oil prices. A quick look at the numbers of rigs returning to the field is a sure sign that, if oil prices do indeed rise, their return to the fracking fields in the US Eagle Ford, Marcellus and Bakken fields are a sure bet.
Don't count out the response of US domestic response to fill in the role of a hole created by an OPEC "knee-jerk" response to lower oil prices.
Keep in mind also that any OPEC-instituted cut in production has never worked when it comes to the final read on output. OPEC has a history of over-producing and under-reporting oil production figures, so there's no reason to expect them to change dirty habits.
The markets should know this...
They're just not saying so yet...
Finally...
Gone are the halcyon days when OPEC used to institute a cut and the markets saw a meteoric rise in oil. Most times saw sharp, sudden increases to oil that were sustained and helped support oil to where it hit record heights.
That was before the days of the frack and the advent of "democratic oil". Now everyone has it, if they have a shale resource and everyone can respond to fill that oil hole.
OPEC knows this, but they forgot this very important fact.
OPEC did succeed in two things yesterday: OPEC managed to put out the sure signs that they lost the fight for market share and the fight to retain control of the price of oil.
Investor beware!
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, September 20, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, September 22, 2016
Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:
*Heating and stove oil to drop by a half penny....
*Diesel fuel to drop by 6/10ths of a cent, and...
*Gasoline to increase by 2.7 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel to drop by 6/10ths of a cent, and...
*Gasoline to increase by 2.7 cents a litre.
Market highlights
Pressure on refined gasoline
A break in the important Colonial pipeline that brings gasoline from the US southeast refining area to the US Mideast regions has been causing spikes in prices in most regions east of the Mississippi and Ontario and east as well.
Because of the supply disruption, prices for gasoline also showed a marked increase as shortages in the US southeast for refined gasoline increased the value of gasoline from other regions unaffected by the supply disruption.
It's not going to last however, as prices are already starting to moderate as a pipeline fix-a temporary one at least- is due to come into operation at almost any minute that should bring supplies back online.
Look for prices to retreat again next week on the news.
A break in the important Colonial pipeline that brings gasoline from the US southeast refining area to the US Mideast regions has been causing spikes in prices in most regions east of the Mississippi and Ontario and east as well.
Because of the supply disruption, prices for gasoline also showed a marked increase as shortages in the US southeast for refined gasoline increased the value of gasoline from other regions unaffected by the supply disruption.
It's not going to last however, as prices are already starting to moderate as a pipeline fix-a temporary one at least- is due to come into operation at almost any minute that should bring supplies back online.
Look for prices to retreat again next week on the news.
Oil producers to meet next week
Mark down September 28th as a day to watch oil on your calendar as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC and non-OPEC producers meet to discuss any possibility of invoking a freeze on further oil production meant to stabilize and increase oil prices.
Already, the president of Algeria is stating that they need to see at least a million barrel cut in present production in order to help stop the latest fall in prices.
Mark down September 28th as a day to watch oil on your calendar as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC and non-OPEC producers meet to discuss any possibility of invoking a freeze on further oil production meant to stabilize and increase oil prices.
Already, the president of Algeria is stating that they need to see at least a million barrel cut in present production in order to help stop the latest fall in prices.
I'll keep it at that this week
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, September 13, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, September 15, 2016
Good evening,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating oil shows an increase of 1.5 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel shows an increase of 1.2 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 2.4 cents a litre.
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating oil shows an increase of 1.5 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel shows an increase of 1.2 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 2.4 cents a litre.
Market highlights
US Inventory report impacts prices
Last Wednesday's US EIA inventory report certainly was a model for how speculators can jump all over the tiniest of facts.
The inventory report from last week gave everyone a good read on how much the markets can be influenced once some "certainty" is weighed against the truth.
Last Tuesday, the last day of the regulatory session, industry reports were released to the markets stating that US inventories were impacted according to the industry report, in a negative way. Numbers for oil were well down. But the markets the next morning didn't exactly run away out of control on their news.
Enter Wednesday noon when the US EIA inventory read came out for the week before.
Facts are facts, and in the face of a drop in both gasoline and crude oil inventories, oil shot up a good $2 plus over the next few hours and stayed there for the rest of the day.
Refined commodity prices also showed a rapid increase right behind oil.
But expect a retreat in prices starting into this week's market trading that should impact consumer prices set for next Wednesday.
While Hurricane Hermine shut down most imports into the Gulf of Mexico last week that turned oil prices up, then the opposite will be true for tomorrow's report. That one should show a massive build in inventories, those same barrels that didn't make it to shore the previous week that put the screws to prices for us this week.
The numbers may be up this week, but they're not likely to last as the reality of an over-supplkied world full of oil once again takes hold of the oil markets.
The numbers may be up this week, but they're not likely to last as the reality of an over-supplied world full of oil once again takes hold of the oil markets.
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
US Inventory report impacts prices
Last Wednesday's US EIA inventory report certainly was a model for how speculators can jump all over the tiniest of facts.
The inventory report from last week gave everyone a good read on how much the markets can be influenced once some "certainty" is weighed against the truth.
Last Tuesday, the last day of the regulatory session, industry reports were released to the markets stating that US inventories were impacted according to the industry report, in a negative way. Numbers for oil were well down. But the markets the next morning didn't exactly run away out of control on their news.
Enter Wednesday noon when the US EIA inventory read came out for the week before.
Facts are facts, and in the face of a drop in both gasoline and crude oil inventories, oil shot up a good $2 plus over the next few hours and stayed there for the rest of the day.
Refined commodity prices also showed a rapid increase right behind oil.
But expect a retreat in prices starting into this week's market trading that should impact consumer prices set for next Wednesday.
While Hurricane Hermine shut down most imports into the Gulf of Mexico last week that turned oil prices up, then the opposite will be true for tomorrow's report. That one should show a massive build in inventories, those same barrels that didn't make it to shore the previous week that put the screws to prices for us this week.
The numbers may be up this week, but they're not likely to last as the reality of an over-supplkied world full of oil once again takes hold of the oil markets.
The numbers may be up this week, but they're not likely to last as the reality of an over-supplied world full of oil once again takes hold of the oil markets.
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, September 06, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, September 8, 2016
Hi to all,
Looks like the
retreat in prices I predicted a couple of weeks back is starting to kick in.
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove
oil shows a drop of 3.2 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of 3.5 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 4.1 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of 3.5 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 4.1 cents a litre.
Market
highlights
Saudi's
meet with Russia on freeze prospects
Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer of oil, met in a separate meeting this week with non-OPEC producer, Russia on the prospects of instituting any freeze in oil production.
While the markets are spotty on any support of a freeze, it seems that any freeze in production will end up on the floor as the sceptics don't see either country, or OPEC, to stick with self-imposed limits.
Oil prices struggled to gain any ground this week on the news.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer of oil, met in a separate meeting this week with non-OPEC producer, Russia on the prospects of instituting any freeze in oil production.
While the markets are spotty on any support of a freeze, it seems that any freeze in production will end up on the floor as the sceptics don't see either country, or OPEC, to stick with self-imposed limits.
Oil prices struggled to gain any ground this week on the news.
US
inventory data tells a story
Last week's inventory data out of the US Energy Information Administration has some things of note this week.
First off, but not too unexpected, was the fact that oil showed a gain in inventories that helped start a drop in prices. Inventories of oil were up 2.3 million barrels. Part of that build may very well have been helped by additional supplies from Alberta and Nigeria, most recently back in the markets from their supply disruptions.
Secondly, distillate inventories were up again well ahead of the fall and winter season. All good to see ahead of consumption time.
While refinery capacity was also down, reflective of the changing demand season for gasoline and distillates, I have seen a retreat in gasoline simply as the result of a drop in gasoline demand at the end of the summer driving season.
Look for the focus of the markets to switch to attention towards the distillate markets from now until spring 2017.
Last week's inventory data out of the US Energy Information Administration has some things of note this week.
First off, but not too unexpected, was the fact that oil showed a gain in inventories that helped start a drop in prices. Inventories of oil were up 2.3 million barrels. Part of that build may very well have been helped by additional supplies from Alberta and Nigeria, most recently back in the markets from their supply disruptions.
Secondly, distillate inventories were up again well ahead of the fall and winter season. All good to see ahead of consumption time.
While refinery capacity was also down, reflective of the changing demand season for gasoline and distillates, I have seen a retreat in gasoline simply as the result of a drop in gasoline demand at the end of the summer driving season.
Look for the focus of the markets to switch to attention towards the distillate markets from now until spring 2017.
That's your report
this week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, September 1, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes. I'll apologize in advance for the lack of any market news. There simply wasn't any time for market analysis this week.
*Heating and stove oils will increase by 3/10ths of a cent a litre.
*Diesel prices to drop by 1/10th of a cent, and...
*Gasoline prices to increase by 8/10ths of a cent.
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Here's what I have for this week's price changes. I'll apologize in advance for the lack of any market news. There simply wasn't any time for market analysis this week.
*Heating and stove oils will increase by 3/10ths of a cent a litre.
*Diesel prices to drop by 1/10th of a cent, and...
*Gasoline prices to increase by 8/10ths of a cent.
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, August 25, 2016
Hi to all,
As predicted, there's not much change in the numbers.
All are up.
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
...
As predicted, there's not much change in the numbers.
All are up.
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
...
*Heating and stove oils to increase by 3.9 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel to increase by 3.8 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 4.8 cents a litre at the pumps.
Market highlights
Iran to join talks in Algeria
*In a surprise to the markets today, Iran is said to have written a letter to fellow OPEC members letting them know that they will join talks with other OPEC and non-OPEC members in the possibility of instituting a production freeze.
World oil producers are still trying to deal with an excess of supply in the markets, and it is widely believed that a freeze in worldwide oil production will help alleviate the present drop in prices.
The news today help take oil prices out of negative territory and oil ended with a gain on the day.
Oil inventories lower
Last week's inventory news out of the US was for some a surprise as buth oil and gas supplies took a dip last week all against market expectations.
Gasoline inventories took a drop of 2.7 million barrels in last week's report with oil also down by 2.6 million barrels.
I'll leave it at that for this week.
Regards to all,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
That was the release I sent out a little while ago...
The news out of Iran today was a little surprising, I will admit.
In case you missed it, the Iranians are now talking about attending the "freeze" meeting set for Algeria in late September...
Curious though is the effect of making an announcement like that today a full month ahead of the scheduled meeting. Perhaps the Iranians now know what kind of influence the now hold in the markets, but even more curious knowing that they have been taking on the Saudi's at their own game with discounting to their favorite Asian customers almost a side-act.
Be that as it may, Iraq still enters a new realm in the markets with their announcement the other day that they have reached an export deal with the Kurds in the north where exports have been shut in from the Kirkuk fields. With oil down yesterday on the immediate addition of upwards of 200,000 barrels a day in output, it was no surprise to see Iran respond with their own "influence" shot to gain back some attention again.
But keep looking south, but not just south...
With rising oil, US rig counts have again increased for the tenth week out of eleven measured. The fact that oil is still supported close to $50 Brent and $48 WTI, tells me to expect another week of a double-digit increase in rig counts in the next week or two. Resiliency is showing itself in the US and may turn out to be the factor that shuts down any increase (or prospects of) in the price of a barrel of oil.
Regards,
George
*Diesel fuel to increase by 3.8 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 4.8 cents a litre at the pumps.
Market highlights
Iran to join talks in Algeria
*In a surprise to the markets today, Iran is said to have written a letter to fellow OPEC members letting them know that they will join talks with other OPEC and non-OPEC members in the possibility of instituting a production freeze.
World oil producers are still trying to deal with an excess of supply in the markets, and it is widely believed that a freeze in worldwide oil production will help alleviate the present drop in prices.
The news today help take oil prices out of negative territory and oil ended with a gain on the day.
Oil inventories lower
Last week's inventory news out of the US was for some a surprise as buth oil and gas supplies took a dip last week all against market expectations.
Gasoline inventories took a drop of 2.7 million barrels in last week's report with oil also down by 2.6 million barrels.
I'll leave it at that for this week.
Regards to all,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
That was the release I sent out a little while ago...
The news out of Iran today was a little surprising, I will admit.
In case you missed it, the Iranians are now talking about attending the "freeze" meeting set for Algeria in late September...
Curious though is the effect of making an announcement like that today a full month ahead of the scheduled meeting. Perhaps the Iranians now know what kind of influence the now hold in the markets, but even more curious knowing that they have been taking on the Saudi's at their own game with discounting to their favorite Asian customers almost a side-act.
Be that as it may, Iraq still enters a new realm in the markets with their announcement the other day that they have reached an export deal with the Kurds in the north where exports have been shut in from the Kirkuk fields. With oil down yesterday on the immediate addition of upwards of 200,000 barrels a day in output, it was no surprise to see Iran respond with their own "influence" shot to gain back some attention again.
But keep looking south, but not just south...
With rising oil, US rig counts have again increased for the tenth week out of eleven measured. The fact that oil is still supported close to $50 Brent and $48 WTI, tells me to expect another week of a double-digit increase in rig counts in the next week or two. Resiliency is showing itself in the US and may turn out to be the factor that shuts down any increase (or prospects of) in the price of a barrel of oil.
Regards,
George
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, August 18, 2016
Hi to all,
Here’s what I have for this
week’s price changes:
*Heating and stove oils show
an added 3.2 cents a litre.
*Diesel shows an increase of
2.7 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows just a 1/10th
of a cent a litre increase.
Market highlights
As oil prices rise, affects
can be seen and are all the focus of the update this week...
With OPEC talking about
taking another extraordinary measure to freeze production, speculators are
betting that, this time, the move to impact on the abundance of oil in the
markets will work this time.
*OPEC will
meet in Algeria on September 28th to discuss the possibility of a
production freeze. Other non-OPEC producers like Russia, have shown an interest
in cutting back or freezing production in an effort to support oil prices and
increase revenues.
*Oil
prices have increased a rough 12 percentage points since the last price
setting, an increase of $5.65 over the last week as a result.
*The
Canadian dollar has increased in value against the US greenback, rising close
to three cents from $1.30.6 cents to today’s noon rate of $1.28.6 as oil prices
have increased.
*What is obvious by the numbers this week is a market focus on distillate fuels
that have shown a major increase this week, and numbers that are also pointing
towards a potential increase again for next week ahead o the fall season.
*With
attention now off the gasoline selling season in the US, gasoline numbers are
showing a barely visible increase at the pumps this week. You can see where
refiners have been losing in the game this past summer with gasoline spot
prices remaining relatively steady against the increase in oil prices this
week.
I’ll leave it at that for
this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, August 09, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, August 11.2016
Hi to all,
Here’s what I have for this
week’s price changes:
*Heating and stove oils show
an added 1.1 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an
additional 2.1 cents a litre at the pumps, and...
*Gasoline also shows an added
1.1 cents a litre.
Market highlights
OPEC talks about holding
production cuts meeting
Some OPEC members are again
talking about the possibility of putting “further” production cuts in place
after watching the fall of oil again this week. Member countries like Venezuela
are struggling in the tide of falling oil with the Mediterranean OPEC member
swimming in a mounting tide of debt because of faltering oil prices.
Russia
is also keeping in mind how low oil has cost their own economy and are again
also keeping the possibility of production cuts in mind for a possible
September meeting.
But
the possibility of cuts doesn’t seem to hold water in some circles...
Both
Iran and Iraq have been discounting oil prices to their Asian customers against
their fellow OPEC member Saudi Arabia. After an initial rise in oil prices,
markets were again in retreat today.
US domestic rig count
rises again
For
the ninth week in ten, US domestic rig counts were up again, in spite of oil’s
fall. With oil still showing all the signs of sliding further into bear
territory, the number of small oil companies returning to the oil patch
continues to show slow but steady growth in spite of low oil, and it’s the
biggest bone that the OPEC dog has to contend with. Any discussion of talks
cannot happen, or round of cuts stick, without seeing any kind of return of the
power that US domestic resources holds.
With rising rig counts worldwide, OPEC runs the risk of losing their own
market-share, and thusly, their former world economic influence. Any gap in
production will be quickly met with industry response.
US inventories
Last week’s US inventory
report out of the Energy Information Administration showed a surprise draw
against gasoline inventories of 4.3 million barrels. While ample gasoline
inventories remain well over the five year average, a surprise draw was enough
to bolster speculators into boosting gasoline prices this week.
That’s it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, August 02, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, August 4, 2016
Hi to all,
Final numbers...
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
Final numbers...
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oil predicted to decrease by 3.3 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel to decrease by 3.2 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline to drop by 1.6 cents a litre.
Market highlights
Saudi Arabia discounts
Saudi Arabia has started again to discount to it's Asian customers as the selling war against Iran has again escalated. Since Iran's return to the open markets after the lifting of sanctions, I predicted then that it wouldn't take long before Iran starts to pick a fight in an effort to gain back its own lost customers from the first placement of sanctions a few years back.
Looks like this fight is going to be worth keeping an eye on for its European connection!
Read on!
Libya back in it
Libyan production is coming back on with the end of violence in four key export centers from the North African nation. Analysts are saying to expect anywhere between 150,000 barrels to 450,000 barrels immediately into the world markets with an increase to 900,000 barrels of oil almost certainly directed at the European and Asian markets.
Let there be no mistake that, in a few weeks time for exports to reach Europe, and excess supplies will be certain to hit Brent prices more so than West Texas Intermediate. There will be some discounting in Europe to come!
Nigeria back in
With the Nigerian government agreeing to start paying rebels a share of oil royalties (it's not that unusual), expect to see an increase mostly to the US of light sweet crude into the US eastern seaboard. With production showing some resilience in the US in spite of retreating prices, look for the US to build oil inventories that might show a continued glut will carry on in spite of any producers best efforts.
It was November of last year that it was estimated that the world had in excess of three billion barrels of oil to be consumed before we were free of the oil glut.
Just a few reasons why we won't see any recovery in prices anytime soon.
That's it for this week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
*Diesel fuel to decrease by 3.2 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline to drop by 1.6 cents a litre.
Market highlights
Saudi Arabia discounts
Saudi Arabia has started again to discount to it's Asian customers as the selling war against Iran has again escalated. Since Iran's return to the open markets after the lifting of sanctions, I predicted then that it wouldn't take long before Iran starts to pick a fight in an effort to gain back its own lost customers from the first placement of sanctions a few years back.
Looks like this fight is going to be worth keeping an eye on for its European connection!
Read on!
Libya back in it
Libyan production is coming back on with the end of violence in four key export centers from the North African nation. Analysts are saying to expect anywhere between 150,000 barrels to 450,000 barrels immediately into the world markets with an increase to 900,000 barrels of oil almost certainly directed at the European and Asian markets.
Let there be no mistake that, in a few weeks time for exports to reach Europe, and excess supplies will be certain to hit Brent prices more so than West Texas Intermediate. There will be some discounting in Europe to come!
Nigeria back in
With the Nigerian government agreeing to start paying rebels a share of oil royalties (it's not that unusual), expect to see an increase mostly to the US of light sweet crude into the US eastern seaboard. With production showing some resilience in the US in spite of retreating prices, look for the US to build oil inventories that might show a continued glut will carry on in spite of any producers best efforts.
It was November of last year that it was estimated that the world had in excess of three billion barrels of oil to be consumed before we were free of the oil glut.
Just a few reasons why we won't see any recovery in prices anytime soon.
That's it for this week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, July 26, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for price changes for this week!
*Heating and stove oils show a slight drop of 8/10ths of a cent a litre....
*Diesel fuel shows a slight drop as well of 6/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline is also down this week, but just by 3/10ths of a cent a litre.
Here's what I have for price changes for this week!
*Heating and stove oils show a slight drop of 8/10ths of a cent a litre....
*Diesel fuel shows a slight drop as well of 6/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline is also down this week, but just by 3/10ths of a cent a litre.
Market highlights
Crude drops again
Monday this week saw another drop in crude oil as market analysts have a renewed fear over crude oil over-supply continues to sway oil prices.
Latest API inventory data from the industry-led group shows a less than expected drawdown on crude oil inventories.
No surprise here, but the real confirmation may come from the US Energy Information's Administration's inventory data when it is released tomorrow noon our time. Another reported build in inventory, or smaller than expected drawdown on inventories of crude, may very well extend the recent slide in crude oil prices.
Weak demand for gasoline and indications of a huge surplus in gasoline and distillate supplies has also played in to the latest drop in crude oil prices.
Canadian dollar moves lower
With lower oil comes a lower Canadian dollar, with the Canuck Buck dropping a full two cents against the US greenback over the past three days since oil's slide.
The Canadian dollar was measured at $1.3209 against the US dollar at noon today.
Rig counts up again
The US rig count was up again last Friday, and it is probably a huge indicator of just how robust the smaller producers have become in the face of lower prices. The rig count rose another 15 rigs last week, up again for the seventh week in a row.
That's it for this week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Crude drops again
Monday this week saw another drop in crude oil as market analysts have a renewed fear over crude oil over-supply continues to sway oil prices.
Latest API inventory data from the industry-led group shows a less than expected drawdown on crude oil inventories.
No surprise here, but the real confirmation may come from the US Energy Information's Administration's inventory data when it is released tomorrow noon our time. Another reported build in inventory, or smaller than expected drawdown on inventories of crude, may very well extend the recent slide in crude oil prices.
Weak demand for gasoline and indications of a huge surplus in gasoline and distillate supplies has also played in to the latest drop in crude oil prices.
Canadian dollar moves lower
With lower oil comes a lower Canadian dollar, with the Canuck Buck dropping a full two cents against the US greenback over the past three days since oil's slide.
The Canadian dollar was measured at $1.3209 against the US dollar at noon today.
Rig counts up again
The US rig count was up again last Friday, and it is probably a huge indicator of just how robust the smaller producers have become in the face of lower prices. The rig count rose another 15 rigs last week, up again for the seventh week in a row.
That's it for this week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, July 21, 2016
Hi to all,
Final numbers for
this week are actually not far off from last night's posting. Here's what I
have:
*Heating and stove
oils show a drop of 2.1 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of 1.5 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of 7/10ths of a cent a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of 1.5 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of 7/10ths of a cent a litre.
Market
highlights
Gasoline to
drop next week?
An after hours American Petroleum Institute inventory report sent gasoline futures lower as the industry report showed a build in gasoline inventories that lends further support to weaker demand for gasoline than industry speculators thought. When the industry starts sending out signs of weak demand, you know there's a "problem" with demand.
Inventory reports out of the US Energy Information Administration in recent weeks has been showing the same sign of weak summer demand that has played well into lower prices (except here because of the added tax).
An after hours American Petroleum Institute inventory report sent gasoline futures lower as the industry report showed a build in gasoline inventories that lends further support to weaker demand for gasoline than industry speculators thought. When the industry starts sending out signs of weak demand, you know there's a "problem" with demand.
Inventory reports out of the US Energy Information Administration in recent weeks has been showing the same sign of weak summer demand that has played well into lower prices (except here because of the added tax).
Distillate
drops ahead of September buying contract
Distillate prices in the trading markets are down again this week, ahead of the September buying contract. Inventories of heating, stove oil and diesel fuels are all well above last years levels for this time of the year and show promise of potentially lower prices for those fuels to consumers if the trend keeps going.
Stocks are presently about twelve million barrels ahead of last year's mark. With refinery capacity close to 93 percent, I expect there to be more additions to inventories of distillate that will mitigate any increase to consumer prices...At least for the time-being!
Distillate prices in the trading markets are down again this week, ahead of the September buying contract. Inventories of heating, stove oil and diesel fuels are all well above last years levels for this time of the year and show promise of potentially lower prices for those fuels to consumers if the trend keeps going.
Stocks are presently about twelve million barrels ahead of last year's mark. With refinery capacity close to 93 percent, I expect there to be more additions to inventories of distillate that will mitigate any increase to consumer prices...At least for the time-being!
That's it for this
week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, July 12, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, July 14, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes in what has been a very volatile week!
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of three cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel also shows a drop of three cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 3.4 cents a litre on the way.
Here's what I have for this week's price changes in what has been a very volatile week!
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of three cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel also shows a drop of three cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 3.4 cents a litre on the way.
Market highlights
*Gasoline inventories remain high
As reported by the US Energy Information last week, "product supplied" versus "product used" remains about 250,000 barrels above where refiners feel the numbers should be to maintain prices. The result played heavy in the markets last week as demand was seen to be weak and inventories for gasoline will remain high through the summer.
Gasoline inventories are a strong 21 million barrels above last year's numbers. Refiner capacity is close to 92 percent as they just keep refining!
*Early winter outlook
While the US EIA reports inventories for gasoline up, distillate inventories are also up, but not to the same degree. As of last week, distillate inventory is just above 11 million barrels for the same timeframe last year, and that number may be important to see maintained in the long term.
If inventories remain above the seasonal we are seeing this week, it may prove that the industry may be able to keep up with any anticipated demand over the winter, and this may keep prices relatively steady as compared to last winter.
Any drop in refiner capacity or uptick in demand for distillate will, however, impact inventories and may help to increase prices. But for now, it's looking like "steady as she goes".
I'll leave it there for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
*Gasoline inventories remain high
As reported by the US Energy Information last week, "product supplied" versus "product used" remains about 250,000 barrels above where refiners feel the numbers should be to maintain prices. The result played heavy in the markets last week as demand was seen to be weak and inventories for gasoline will remain high through the summer.
Gasoline inventories are a strong 21 million barrels above last year's numbers. Refiner capacity is close to 92 percent as they just keep refining!
*Early winter outlook
While the US EIA reports inventories for gasoline up, distillate inventories are also up, but not to the same degree. As of last week, distillate inventory is just above 11 million barrels for the same timeframe last year, and that number may be important to see maintained in the long term.
If inventories remain above the seasonal we are seeing this week, it may prove that the industry may be able to keep up with any anticipated demand over the winter, and this may keep prices relatively steady as compared to last winter.
Any drop in refiner capacity or uptick in demand for distillate will, however, impact inventories and may help to increase prices. But for now, it's looking like "steady as she goes".
I'll leave it there for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, July 05, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, July 7, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for price changes this week:
*Heating and stove oils are up by 1.2 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel is up by a penny even, and...
*Gasoline shows a penny down.
Here's what I have for price changes this week:
*Heating and stove oils are up by 1.2 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel is up by a penny even, and...
*Gasoline shows a penny down.
Market highlights
*US drilling rig count rises
The US drill rig count rose again last week, partly sparking the markets to look again at rising oil prices and sparking fears that the US domestic production has hit a level where they can show clear profits at lower oil prices.
The count rose by eleven rigs last week, with news hitting the markets only today as markets remained closed over the US Independence Day holiday.
With rig counts rising again, the possibilities of added oil to US domestic supplies saw oil prices again in retreat, falling close to five percentage points from Friday's market close.
*Gasoline demand takes a tumble
As predicted here a few weeks ago, US demand for summer gasoline has taken an "expected" shift downwards in a late report from the US Energy Information Administration.
Last week's inventory report saw the markets force gasoline prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange to "freefall" by close to eight cents a US gallon as reality of rising production and rising inventories of gasoline midway through the US summer driving season bites home.
Latest trends in the US reports show refinery capacity rising and exceeding US consumption of gasoline by close to 250,000 barrels a day and leaving inventories over 20 million barrels over the same timeframe from last year.
The sell-off was on and oil prices paid for it.
*Don't expect big changes...
While both oil and gasoline prices were down today, don't expect big changes to prices this week as a few days trading are needed to bring prices down. The latest hit on the markets will most likely play into prices next week, if the downward trend continues.
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyOil
*US drilling rig count rises
The US drill rig count rose again last week, partly sparking the markets to look again at rising oil prices and sparking fears that the US domestic production has hit a level where they can show clear profits at lower oil prices.
The count rose by eleven rigs last week, with news hitting the markets only today as markets remained closed over the US Independence Day holiday.
With rig counts rising again, the possibilities of added oil to US domestic supplies saw oil prices again in retreat, falling close to five percentage points from Friday's market close.
*Gasoline demand takes a tumble
As predicted here a few weeks ago, US demand for summer gasoline has taken an "expected" shift downwards in a late report from the US Energy Information Administration.
Last week's inventory report saw the markets force gasoline prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange to "freefall" by close to eight cents a US gallon as reality of rising production and rising inventories of gasoline midway through the US summer driving season bites home.
Latest trends in the US reports show refinery capacity rising and exceeding US consumption of gasoline by close to 250,000 barrels a day and leaving inventories over 20 million barrels over the same timeframe from last year.
The sell-off was on and oil prices paid for it.
*Don't expect big changes...
While both oil and gasoline prices were down today, don't expect big changes to prices this week as a few days trading are needed to bring prices down. The latest hit on the markets will most likely play into prices next week, if the downward trend continues.
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George
Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, June 30th, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of just 6/10ths of a cent.
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of a half penny, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 1.9 cents a litre.
Market highlights
HST increase this week!
*Remember that this week's increase at the pumps will also see price changes that include an extra 2% increase in the HST, going from 13% to 15%. The increase MAY be reflected in this Thursday's price setting, or there will be a second increase to follow to account for the adjustment directly on July 1st.
Venezuela turmoil takes away barrels
*While unrest in Venezuela continues, crude output from the South American oil giant continues to slip as prices show little sign of a rebound and Venezuela slips further into the economic doldrums. Output there is projected to drop another ten percent as the country slips further into recession and world oil prices remain low.
Brexit weighs...Or it did!
* Interesting to watch oil slip late last week as Britain voted to get out of the European Union. What happened was a huge move by speculators moving dollars from currencies like the Pound, over to other stable commodities like gold or the US greenback. Our own dollar lost a solid two cents against the US dollar as oil fell through the next two days.
I'll leave it there for now!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of just 6/10ths of a cent.
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of a half penny, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 1.9 cents a litre.
Market highlights
HST increase this week!
*Remember that this week's increase at the pumps will also see price changes that include an extra 2% increase in the HST, going from 13% to 15%. The increase MAY be reflected in this Thursday's price setting, or there will be a second increase to follow to account for the adjustment directly on July 1st.
Venezuela turmoil takes away barrels
*While unrest in Venezuela continues, crude output from the South American oil giant continues to slip as prices show little sign of a rebound and Venezuela slips further into the economic doldrums. Output there is projected to drop another ten percent as the country slips further into recession and world oil prices remain low.
Brexit weighs...Or it did!
* Interesting to watch oil slip late last week as Britain voted to get out of the European Union. What happened was a huge move by speculators moving dollars from currencies like the Pound, over to other stable commodities like gold or the US greenback. Our own dollar lost a solid two cents against the US dollar as oil fell through the next two days.
I'll leave it there for now!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, June 23, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for price changes for this week!
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 6/10ths of a cent....
*Diesel shows a drop of an even penny, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 3.5 cents a litre on the way.
Here's what I have for price changes for this week!
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 6/10ths of a cent....
*Diesel shows a drop of an even penny, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 3.5 cents a litre on the way.
Market highlights
Rig count continues to rise
It may be a painful thing to watch, but the fact that the US drilling rig count was up again last week put some worries back into the markets late last week that US drilling is more resilient to the "Saudi onslaught" of oil that has been dumped into the markets.
That's the second week in a row that the rig count has been up and probably proves that the US drilling industry itself has learned how to cut some of their costs in order to keep operating.
Return of Alberta crude
As Alberta crude starts to come back online starting last week, also coming along with it was less of a worry about any implied shortages of oil in the markets. The fires in Alberta's Fort McMurray area took close to 750,000 barrels offline, making some imports to the US Midwest and Oklahoma area a little shy on inventory that helped support prices.
Demand for gasoline slipping?
While US inventories of gasoline were down again last week, refiner capacity just came over the line of 90%, a bit of a signal to the markets that maybe some refiners are trying to throttle back on gasoline production to help support the price.
Gasoline and crude oil are both at historically high levels of inventory for this time of the year with gasoline inventories 19 million barrels over the same time period for last year.
I'm thinking that speculators aren't entirely "pleased" with the notion going forward that demand will pick up anytime soon based on that figure.
I'll leave it at that for now!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Rig count continues to rise
It may be a painful thing to watch, but the fact that the US drilling rig count was up again last week put some worries back into the markets late last week that US drilling is more resilient to the "Saudi onslaught" of oil that has been dumped into the markets.
That's the second week in a row that the rig count has been up and probably proves that the US drilling industry itself has learned how to cut some of their costs in order to keep operating.
Return of Alberta crude
As Alberta crude starts to come back online starting last week, also coming along with it was less of a worry about any implied shortages of oil in the markets. The fires in Alberta's Fort McMurray area took close to 750,000 barrels offline, making some imports to the US Midwest and Oklahoma area a little shy on inventory that helped support prices.
Demand for gasoline slipping?
While US inventories of gasoline were down again last week, refiner capacity just came over the line of 90%, a bit of a signal to the markets that maybe some refiners are trying to throttle back on gasoline production to help support the price.
Gasoline and crude oil are both at historically high levels of inventory for this time of the year with gasoline inventories 19 million barrels over the same time period for last year.
I'm thinking that speculators aren't entirely "pleased" with the notion going forward that demand will pick up anytime soon based on that figure.
I'll leave it at that for now!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, June 16, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils to increase by 4/10ths of a cent....
*Diesel shows an increase of just 1/10th of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 2.5 cents a litre coming.
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils to increase by 4/10ths of a cent....
*Diesel shows an increase of just 1/10th of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 2.5 cents a litre coming.
Market highlights
*Baker Hughes rig count is up
News from the drilling fields may include some happy points for some as the Baker Hughes rig count is up for the second week in a row.
The rig count, showing active and new start-ups at various locations across the US and North America, showed an added six rigs back in operation. The rise in oil prices in recent weeks is reason enough why we are seeing a rebound in active rigs.
Here in Canada, another twelve rigs went back into operation.
With the rise in active rigs the past two weeks, oil industry people are now looking at the added effect of more pumped oil will have on US domestic production figures.
*Iran oil production
It was only the middle of January when sanctions were lifted against Iran, a move that many predicted would add an immediate 500K barrels to the markets within six months of the sanctions being lifted.
News today seems to indicate that Iran has beaten that estimate and is also well on their way to hitting the million barrel day added oil production before year's end.
Latest figures show Iran produced 750,000 barrels more than what they did in the month before sanctions were lifted, quite a remarkable feat!
But keep an eye to Iran and Saudi Arabia as they both compete for market share. As predicted, that fight will carry on with evidence already pointing to Saudi Arabia discounting prices to European customers, a mainstay market for Iranian crude oil.
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
*Baker Hughes rig count is up
News from the drilling fields may include some happy points for some as the Baker Hughes rig count is up for the second week in a row.
The rig count, showing active and new start-ups at various locations across the US and North America, showed an added six rigs back in operation. The rise in oil prices in recent weeks is reason enough why we are seeing a rebound in active rigs.
Here in Canada, another twelve rigs went back into operation.
With the rise in active rigs the past two weeks, oil industry people are now looking at the added effect of more pumped oil will have on US domestic production figures.
*Iran oil production
It was only the middle of January when sanctions were lifted against Iran, a move that many predicted would add an immediate 500K barrels to the markets within six months of the sanctions being lifted.
News today seems to indicate that Iran has beaten that estimate and is also well on their way to hitting the million barrel day added oil production before year's end.
Latest figures show Iran produced 750,000 barrels more than what they did in the month before sanctions were lifted, quite a remarkable feat!
But keep an eye to Iran and Saudi Arabia as they both compete for market share. As predicted, that fight will carry on with evidence already pointing to Saudi Arabia discounting prices to European customers, a mainstay market for Iranian crude oil.
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, June 07, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, June 9, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for price changes this week, with all data now in:
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 27/100ths of a cent drop....
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of a half cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 2.3 cents a litre.
Here's what I have for price changes this week, with all data now in:
*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 27/100ths of a cent drop....
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of a half cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a drop of 2.3 cents a litre.
Small consolation for the huge increase in the taxation component last week!
Market highlights
Canadian dollar shows an increase
*A small and disappointing US jobs report showed some weakness in the US greenback last week that allowed the price of oil to rise as a measured response from speculators withdrew from the dollar and invested in oil. Speculators played on oil, helping the Canadian dollar increase against the US greenback as a result, with the Canadian dollar averaging two cents up against the US currency as of market close today.
US gasoline at peak?
*The price of gas has started to drop on most exchanges this past week as the peak of US summer driving season is now upon us. With speculators seeing ample supply of gas to match demand, and most futures markets into the August buying contract, it seems to me at least, that investors won't see prices any higher than right now. Look for prices to remain relatively steady now through the summer.
OPEC meetings a failure?
*Meetings between OPEC members were rather tepid and seemed to be more designed to keep the group together, rather than meant for the imposition of any kind of round of production cuts. While prices have been rising for oil as of late, I believe that this was the excuse that the group needed to not change present levels of production. In the meantime, production as well as exports, keeps climbing in OPEC members' Iraq and Iran in the face of self-imposed production maintenance.
I'll leave it at that for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Market highlights
Canadian dollar shows an increase
*A small and disappointing US jobs report showed some weakness in the US greenback last week that allowed the price of oil to rise as a measured response from speculators withdrew from the dollar and invested in oil. Speculators played on oil, helping the Canadian dollar increase against the US greenback as a result, with the Canadian dollar averaging two cents up against the US currency as of market close today.
US gasoline at peak?
*The price of gas has started to drop on most exchanges this past week as the peak of US summer driving season is now upon us. With speculators seeing ample supply of gas to match demand, and most futures markets into the August buying contract, it seems to me at least, that investors won't see prices any higher than right now. Look for prices to remain relatively steady now through the summer.
OPEC meetings a failure?
*Meetings between OPEC members were rather tepid and seemed to be more designed to keep the group together, rather than meant for the imposition of any kind of round of production cuts. While prices have been rising for oil as of late, I believe that this was the excuse that the group needed to not change present levels of production. In the meantime, production as well as exports, keeps climbing in OPEC members' Iraq and Iran in the face of self-imposed production maintenance.
I'll leave it at that for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, June 2nd, 2016
Hi to all,
Here’s what I have for this
week’s price changes:
*Heating and stove oils show
a drop of just 1/10th of a cent a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an
increase of 5.2 cents a litre, inclusive of the new government road tax, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase
of 20.9 cents a litre, inclusive of the new government road tax increase.
Market news
OPEC meets June 2nd
in Vienna
*OPEC will hold its next
meeting later this week in Vienna to discuss further possible measures to help
support oil prices. Saudi Arabia hopes to arrange a hold in production to help
support prices, but the possible measure is not coming to fruition with OPEC
members Iraq and Iran, who have increased production to capture more market
share.
Speculators
and analysts are out there thinking that nothing of consequence will come from
the meeting as OPEC has a history of it’s own members cheating on self-imposed
quotas.
Budget a done deal
*Here in Newfoundland and
Labrador, the provincial budget passed and the notion of higher taxes on most
transportation fuels ahead of the increase in HST in July is now reality. The
budget passed earlier this afternoon by a 26-10 margin.
Bill #20 dealing
with allowing that increase to the gas tax was passed in the House of Assembly
just last week.
That’s it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, May 24, 2016
Price increases across the board for Thursday
Hi to all,
Here are the final numbers for this week's projected fuel price changes:
*Heating and stove oils add 3.7 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel is up 3.6 cents a litre, and
*Gasoline shows an increase of 2.7 cents a litre.
Here are the final numbers for this week's projected fuel price changes:
*Heating and stove oils add 3.7 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel is up 3.6 cents a litre, and
*Gasoline shows an increase of 2.7 cents a litre.
Market highlights
Increase to road taxes means a huge bump at the pumps
*Today in the House of Assembly, the government passed the motion allowing for an increase to the road tax collected on gasoline to be instituted June 2nd.
The increase, plus the applicable increase in the HST works out to an additional 20.9 cents a litre on the present price for gasoline.
With today's price change prediction in hand, the price at the pumps would go from $1.13.8 cents a litre to $1.34.8 cents a litre.
Demand still up ahead of US Memorial Day holiday
*As the US memorial Day holiday approaches in the US next week, gasoline prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange keeps rising, this week to hit $1.64 a US gallon. Anticipated demand through the summer is the chief cause of these increases, along with a rising US dollar against the Canadian dollar.
The Canadian dollar has lost a rough two cents this past week against its US counterpart.
I'll leave it at this for now. There's lot's of news out there, but Bill#20 seems to be the major story right now.
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Increase to road taxes means a huge bump at the pumps
*Today in the House of Assembly, the government passed the motion allowing for an increase to the road tax collected on gasoline to be instituted June 2nd.
The increase, plus the applicable increase in the HST works out to an additional 20.9 cents a litre on the present price for gasoline.
With today's price change prediction in hand, the price at the pumps would go from $1.13.8 cents a litre to $1.34.8 cents a litre.
Demand still up ahead of US Memorial Day holiday
*As the US memorial Day holiday approaches in the US next week, gasoline prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange keeps rising, this week to hit $1.64 a US gallon. Anticipated demand through the summer is the chief cause of these increases, along with a rising US dollar against the Canadian dollar.
The Canadian dollar has lost a rough two cents this past week against its US counterpart.
I'll leave it at this for now. There's lot's of news out there, but Bill#20 seems to be the major story right now.
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, May 19, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils to increase by 2.9 cents a litre....
*Diesel shows an additional 3.2 cents at the pumps, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 4.2 cents a litre!
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils to increase by 2.9 cents a litre....
*Diesel shows an additional 3.2 cents at the pumps, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 4.2 cents a litre!
Market highlights
*Disruptions are the order of the day
With wildfires in Alberta now threatening both work camps and oil fields themselves, the western Canadian province has also another distinction, being another region of the world that is adding to a supply disruption.
Almost 600,000 barrels has so far been shut in. That goes hand in hand with Nigeria, also showing some 700,000 barrels a day shut in due to strife in the oil-producing region of that country. Libya also is affected with an ongoing internal struggle for power that has dropped output from the North African country to 200,000 barrels a day.
Finally, with US domestic production taking a pounding, a drop in production of close on 800,000 a day since the oil crash has some wondering just how quickly the world over-supply is being taken up.
These disruptions alone amount to 3.5 million barrels a day drop from last year, and we haven't even touched on other projects put on hold because of the crash in other oil-producing countries.
*Demand for gasoline rises
Gasoline demand is picking up again ahead of the US summer driving season.
Demand for gasoline products is up 5.1% from the same four week period last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That's probably enough to see traders get back into the markets and force up prices to match demand.
Just another reason why you and me are going to pay for it this week.
That's it for now!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
*Disruptions are the order of the day
With wildfires in Alberta now threatening both work camps and oil fields themselves, the western Canadian province has also another distinction, being another region of the world that is adding to a supply disruption.
Almost 600,000 barrels has so far been shut in. That goes hand in hand with Nigeria, also showing some 700,000 barrels a day shut in due to strife in the oil-producing region of that country. Libya also is affected with an ongoing internal struggle for power that has dropped output from the North African country to 200,000 barrels a day.
Finally, with US domestic production taking a pounding, a drop in production of close on 800,000 a day since the oil crash has some wondering just how quickly the world over-supply is being taken up.
These disruptions alone amount to 3.5 million barrels a day drop from last year, and we haven't even touched on other projects put on hold because of the crash in other oil-producing countries.
*Demand for gasoline rises
Gasoline demand is picking up again ahead of the US summer driving season.
Demand for gasoline products is up 5.1% from the same four week period last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That's probably enough to see traders get back into the markets and force up prices to match demand.
Just another reason why you and me are going to pay for it this week.
That's it for now!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, May 12, 2016
Good evening to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils to drop by 8/10ths of a cent....
*Diesel fuel to drop by 6/10ths of a cent, and...
*Gasoline to drop by 2.2 cents a litre.
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils to drop by 8/10ths of a cent....
*Diesel fuel to drop by 6/10ths of a cent, and...
*Gasoline to drop by 2.2 cents a litre.
Market highlights
*Saudi Arabia to continue to pump
Saudi Arabia, set to replace it's present oil minister Ali Al Naimi, says it will continue to follow conditions it has recently set in order to maintain production at January levels. The new Saudi oil minister, Khalid Al Falid said he would maintain policies currently in place by his predecessor.
However, that goes contrary to statements made by the head of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, who said plans are being made by the state-owned company to expand capacity by next year to an added one million barrels a day from the Shaybah oil field. It will be interesting to see how other countries respond as, I believe the Saudi's are setting themselves up for an "unrestricted oil war" against other oil producing nations.
*Canadian dollar falls
The Canadian dollar fell in the last few days an average of 2.5 cents over the last week as both a weak economic outlook and the shaky ground beneath oil prices saw the dollar retreat against the US greenback.
*Latest US inventory report
With US domestic oil production still falling, this month averaging 8.8 million barrels a day from last year's 9.6 million barrels, the latest inventory report still shows a steady flow of oil coming into the US from outside sources. Inventories reported a gain of 2.8 million barrels, while gasoline also showed a modest 500 thousand barrels up from the week previous.
At a critical juncture before the start of the US driving season, the predicted drop in prices is most likely related to a withdrawal of speculators from the July buying contract, where traditionally we start to see a drop in gasoline prices through to the fall.
I'll leave it at that for this week.
Sorry for any inconvenience last week, but it was a great trip to Cuba.
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
*Saudi Arabia to continue to pump
Saudi Arabia, set to replace it's present oil minister Ali Al Naimi, says it will continue to follow conditions it has recently set in order to maintain production at January levels. The new Saudi oil minister, Khalid Al Falid said he would maintain policies currently in place by his predecessor.
However, that goes contrary to statements made by the head of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, who said plans are being made by the state-owned company to expand capacity by next year to an added one million barrels a day from the Shaybah oil field. It will be interesting to see how other countries respond as, I believe the Saudi's are setting themselves up for an "unrestricted oil war" against other oil producing nations.
*Canadian dollar falls
The Canadian dollar fell in the last few days an average of 2.5 cents over the last week as both a weak economic outlook and the shaky ground beneath oil prices saw the dollar retreat against the US greenback.
*Latest US inventory report
With US domestic oil production still falling, this month averaging 8.8 million barrels a day from last year's 9.6 million barrels, the latest inventory report still shows a steady flow of oil coming into the US from outside sources. Inventories reported a gain of 2.8 million barrels, while gasoline also showed a modest 500 thousand barrels up from the week previous.
At a critical juncture before the start of the US driving season, the predicted drop in prices is most likely related to a withdrawal of speculators from the July buying contract, where traditionally we start to see a drop in gasoline prices through to the fall.
I'll leave it at that for this week.
Sorry for any inconvenience last week, but it was a great trip to Cuba.
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Price changes for Thursday, April 28, 2016
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.9 cents a litre.
*Diesel shows an added 2 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 1.6 cents a litre at the pumps.
Market highlights
*While the Canadian dollar has risen slightly in the last week against its US counterpart, it still wasn't enough to absorb a corresponding rise in the basic cost price of most fuels I measure. All spot prices have shown a startling increase that goes hand in hand with rising oil prices. As a result of rising oil, the Canadian dollar has increased a rough 1.3 cents against the greenback.
*Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will feel the pinch this coming winter with the end of the Heating Rebate program in this year's provincial budget.
Consumers in Labrador will particularly feel the hardest hit living in a harsh environment with no benefit of the rebate program that saw considerable money to consumers to assist them with paying higher heating costs.
Consumers will also be tagged with an added two percentage points to heating costs.
Government should re-instate the rebate program and render assistance to those who will be faced with higher energy costs. Again in this province, people will be forced to choose again between food and heat!
Bring back the rebate and remove the tax on the necessities like heat!
*As predicted months ago, a new bottom line for the start of the return of US domestic drilling programs is slowly starting to form a picture of where we can all expect oil prices to top out.
$50 US is the new floor for oil where it is widely expected to see US domestic drilling and production programs to recover from the last year's drop in oil that initially shut down drilling.
It's also widely seen as a reason why speculators have been pouring dollars into oil this week. However, the spectre of a world over-supply of oil still hangs in the balance, so there's still predicted to be some volatility in pricing.
*Gasoline demand has picked up in recent weeks with US gas production alone hitting 9.4 million barrels a day, an increase of 3.9% over last years figures!
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
*Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.9 cents a litre.
*Diesel shows an added 2 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an added 1.6 cents a litre at the pumps.
Market highlights
*While the Canadian dollar has risen slightly in the last week against its US counterpart, it still wasn't enough to absorb a corresponding rise in the basic cost price of most fuels I measure. All spot prices have shown a startling increase that goes hand in hand with rising oil prices. As a result of rising oil, the Canadian dollar has increased a rough 1.3 cents against the greenback.
*Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will feel the pinch this coming winter with the end of the Heating Rebate program in this year's provincial budget.
Consumers in Labrador will particularly feel the hardest hit living in a harsh environment with no benefit of the rebate program that saw considerable money to consumers to assist them with paying higher heating costs.
Consumers will also be tagged with an added two percentage points to heating costs.
Government should re-instate the rebate program and render assistance to those who will be faced with higher energy costs. Again in this province, people will be forced to choose again between food and heat!
Bring back the rebate and remove the tax on the necessities like heat!
*As predicted months ago, a new bottom line for the start of the return of US domestic drilling programs is slowly starting to form a picture of where we can all expect oil prices to top out.
$50 US is the new floor for oil where it is widely expected to see US domestic drilling and production programs to recover from the last year's drop in oil that initially shut down drilling.
It's also widely seen as a reason why speculators have been pouring dollars into oil this week. However, the spectre of a world over-supply of oil still hangs in the balance, so there's still predicted to be some volatility in pricing.
*Gasoline demand has picked up in recent weeks with US gas production alone hitting 9.4 million barrels a day, an increase of 3.9% over last years figures!
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil
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