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Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Price changes for Thursday, March 31, 2016

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this week's price changes. Keep in mind winter blending that throws off heating and diesel numbers a little from the actual that may occur!

*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.1 cents a litre....
*Diesel fuel shows a drop of 1.3 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows a big increase of 4.9 cents a litre.


*While speculators have been making huge pushes in the gasoline markets, we could be on the edge of seeing a second drop in oil prices towards the thirty dollar a barrel range. Considerable evidence suggests that the recent spike in oil prices has been overdone, and that the actualities of a glut of oil out there will again catch up to reality: that oil is over-valued. Countries who have agreed to limit production simply aren't going to be able to make enough of an impact in the markets to bring prices back to sustainable levels.

*In the meantime, gasoline futures have continued to rise the last week along with New York harbour prices. Another draw on US inventories last week of 4.6 million barrels again showed an uptick in demand ahead of the US summer driving season. Any build in inventories in the coming six weeks will probably stop the increases to consumer prices. Refinery capacity numbers have also been a little low ahead of summer due to spring maintenance, and it is anticipated that gasoline inventories will pick up with any increase in refinery production levels.

    The next US inventory report is due again tomorrow, noon Newfoundland time (NST).

*Key OPEC member Iran is not throwing their weight behind any limitations in production. The sanction-free country has announced that it will not even consider any kind of production limits until it has hit four million barrels a day production, from present levels of 3.1 million barrels. The news has to come as a disappointment to neighbouring Saudi Arabia who took over some of Iran's customers when sanctions were first placed on Iran in 2006 with UN resolution 1696. The past, it appears, is coming back to bite the Saudi's.

That's it for this week!

Don't forget to share this note. Any questions, feel free to drop me a note!


George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

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