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Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Price changes for Thursday, April 13, 2017

Good evening to all,

Here's what I have for price changes this week, and the news is not good. It's just about all geo-political.

While I'm at it, I'll throw in this little disclaimer: "While not the actual price change that may occur, the numbers will be indicative of what direction prices will go."

*Heating/stove oils show an increase of 2.2 cents a litre.
*Diesel fuel shows an increase of 2.4 cents a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of 4.4 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Libya output weighs markets
Libyan production has once again been almost fully shut in after hitting close to 700,000 barrels a day in output just last month.
      News out of Libya indicates that the largest output terminal at the Sharara field has been cut off reducing Libyan output to just 250,000 barrels a day.

Syrian attacks raise tensions
Tensions between the US and Russia after the US strikes in Syria are on the increase, helping to bolster oil prices.

Demand up again
US inventory reports from both the EIA and API (American Petroleum Institute) indicate an increased demand in gasoline, even as refinery capacity picks up to meet summer production.
I'll get a better indication of increased demand from tomorrow's EIA inventory data.

IS US shale able to keep pace?
While OPEC and non-OPEC cuts are beginning to take hold, hitting the oil markets with close to 1.8 million barrels less in the markets, US shale production has only responded with an increase in 700,000 barrels increase in domestic production.
     That leaves a gap of 1.1 million barrels of growth that must give investors a possible "window for investment". That window may also be complicated by slower than expected growth in production as former oil workers may not go back to work at their previous jobs as fast as when they first went into the industry.
     Nothing like a good oil price collapse to bring an industry back to its own reality.

That's it for this week!


George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil

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