Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Price changes for Thursday, December 31st, 2020

 

Hi to all,

 

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

 

*Heating and stove oil to increase by 2/10ths of a cent a litre.

*Diesel fuel shows no change, and...

*Gasoline shows an increase of 4/10ths of a cent a litre.

 

Market highlights

 

2020-The Year of Energy Transition

 

This year has to be called a year of energy transition. No one thing has stood out this week in the markets as markets traded for just four days over the intervening period.

     It did give me some pause for thought however, on a year where the oil industry was also hard hit by covid-19 as much as the economy was hit, so the following is the first six months of oil events I tracked this year:

 

     The first quarter of the year was a time of oil price recovery as demand factors picked up prices immediately ahead of an OPEC and Russia price war at the start of the pandemic. Both OPEC and Russia would come to a realization-probably too late-that saw oil prices crash early in the pandemic that also saw the advent of powerful alternative energy replacements for oil leaping to the forefront.

     Leading the charge is hydrogen where countries like Germany and Russia are leading change and building hydrogen powered projects and refineries/production facilities well ahead of the curb.

 

     March saw the arrival of a disease that completely shut down an oil-fired economy in North America, Europe and Asia as economies were forced to grind to a halt for months under an economic shutdown the likes this world has never seen. A crunch in demand for all fuels forced the immediate shut-down of at least fourteen refineries worldwide and a huge reduction in refining capacity worldwide that some think came close to 40 percent at one point, and still ranges down by at least 20 percent today.

      Here at home, the shutdown of the economy forced the closure/shudder of the North Atlantic refinery in Come By Chance  March 30th as inventories of heating and jet fuels remain unsold as the demand crunch continues.

      Jet travel has collapsed almost 90 percent, leaving worldwide stocks of jet fuel unsold and left in holding tanks in refineries, causing further production disruptions.

      April month saw a disaster on the oil markets as oil prices for West Texas Intermediate  went negative for a day as stocks of oil at Cushing, Oklahoma threatened to flood the pricing centre before inventories could be sold.

     May month saw the start of OPEC and non-OPEC cuts to production that came into force on May 1st that saw the two groups cut production by an unheard of 9.7 million barrels a day while the covid-19 pandemic rages. Oil rig counts south of the border at a historic low of 237 rigs, well down from the over 900 that were operating the year before over the same timeframe.

      June saw Canadian figures on damage to oil production. Canada drops 1.1 million barrels a day from a pre-covid level of 3.9 million barrels a day with the demand crunch biting heavily at Alberta production and production disruptions affected by drops in train shipments.

      The Newfoundland and Labrador government requests that the Public Utilities Board give a one-time rebate back to electrical customers based on lower projected costs for oil-generated electricity. The rebate will be in the form of a tax credit on consumers’ bills for June/July month.

 

     I’ll have the next six months events in the price change notice for next week.

 

Hydrogen: There I said it

Hydrogen continues to ride front and centre when it comes to a world transitioning from oil and to alternative energy sources. The number one story to me this year that records the sum-up of the transition has to be one of ongoing exploration of hydrogen as a source for fuel cells for air travel and the first flight of an airplane using hydrogen as a source of energy.

      That was in September.

       However, ZeroAvia also made a first in the annals of aviation with the first electric-powered flight in June of this year: ZeroAvia completes first UK flight of electric plane | The Engineer The Engineer

 

US EIA inventory data

      The Energy Information Administration is reporting a drop of 600,000 barrels of crude inventories this last week, while gasoline inventories dropped 1.1 million barrels.

      Distillates dropped 2.3 million barrels of inventory.

      Refiner capacity was reported at 78 percent.

      US domestic production was reported at 11 million barrels a day, remaining steady over the past week.

 

That’s it for this week!

 

Regards,

 

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil  

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