Oil prices up can't be good...

Hi to all…

I didn’t have time to get at the news of the week in the markets, or break down what’s been happening, let alone why it happened. Last night's election, I guess you could say, distracted me!

I will hopefully, be back to form for next week.

I am formally out of the loop on oil issues for this week…

But, I do have numbers. They’re not good.

First appearance, oil prices are up over the past week by about $6 US a barrel. That’s a clue…

Keep in mind as well that heating oils are now being calculated under the winter heating blend, so, my heating oil numbers will be off somewhat from what will actually happen as a result of kerosene in the winter heating blend. The stove oil numbers will remain the same.

Here’s what I have:

· Heating/stove oils are up by 1.98 cents a litre.

· Diesel numbers show a 1.5 cent a litre increase, and…

· Gasoline shows an added 4.7 cents a litre.

That’s it for now!

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Again, my apologies for being late posting. It's a long day on the campaign trail!

Canuck buck takes it on the chin

Oil drops on financial and economic news

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, October 4, 2011- Consumers would be surprised to find that in spite of a drop in oil prices, there’s no huge changes to fuel prices. In fact, there’s a slight increase to gasoline. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“What’s more apparent in this week’s data is how much of a beating the Canadian dollar has been getting against the US greenback. We’ve lost close on seven cents since September 21^st . This pricing session saw us lose four cents against the US dollar and that figure is central in figuring out price changes. The loss is that extensive against the US dollar that, while numbers in US terms are down just slightly, they’re showing ’up’ for Canadians.’ Murphy said.

“Seven days data shows heating and stove oils to drop by just 15/100ths of a cent for consumers while the US price per gallon has dropped nine cents a US gallon. Diesel is projected to increase by a half penny.”

“Again, I will be cautious here. My numbers may be off as there’s plenty of market volatility out there! Six days of data shows the US price for gasoline down by seven cents a US gallon but a 1.4 cent a litre increase to Newfoundland and Labrador consumers as a direct result of the drop in the Canadian dollar. If the dollar had held all week, we would have seen a drop of close to two cents instead. That’s all in spite of oil prices for West Texas Intermediate dropping by $6 US over the pricing session. It’s not easy being too closely connected with the US economy.”

Fears over a default by Greece and the bailout plans for other European Union nations continues to rage in the markets and the economic news out of the US doesn’t help the situation much either. Bernanke’s comments about the US being perilously close to recession added fears of a drop in consumer spending sent oil prices downwards. If consumers aren’t going to spend, then a drop in demand in refined products isn’t far behind.

“What we need to see now is the Canadian dollar to stop falling and we’ll see refined commodity prices begin their retreat as well.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Not long in from the campaign, so sorry this is being posted at midnight tonight. Please forgive me!

Markets more volatile than ever!

Consumers catch a break- At least this week

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, September 27, 2011- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will catch another small break at the pumps, although market volatility is planting doubt on how long drops will last. That news comes from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“I can’t remember another time when the European Union financial situation has caused this much fluctuation in oil prices, but that and lingering concerns over the possibility of another recession has the markets in turmoil. There simply is no accounting for it in my numbers even. Markets are that much in a state of flux that they’re into collapse one minute and recovery the next.” Murphy cautioned.

“In the meantime, my numbers show heating and stove oils to drop by 1.12 cents a litre and diesel to drop by just 9/10ths of a cent. Gasoline shows a downwards turn of 2.3 cents a litre based on the market activity for the past seven days. These numbers may have been more substantial than they are except for the almost four cent drop against the US greenback.”

“Inventory reports out of the United States Energy Information Administration may tell the future of prices for the next few weeks when the report is released tomorrow afternoon. Any build in gasoline inventories may be a warning that consumers and business alike are starting to curtail spending, particularly for transportation fuels and that demand is petering out. We could be in a transition into recession if that is the case.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

“Tax off tax” explained

I know there’s some confusion out there, so I figured I’d send along a little explanation of the NDP proposal.

Let's say the basic price of gas on the New York exchange was 70 cents a litre. You then add 10 cents federal excise and 16.5 cents provincial road taxes to that. Total here is 96.5 cents a litre, right?

Ok…

Now we add the HST, which is made up of 8% provincial plus 5% federal taxes (13%)

The problem we found here, and the Canadian taxpayers Association did also, is that the province charges their cut of the HST on the 96.5 cents, which is taxes on the basic cost of gas already.

The NDP proposal would adjust the formula used to just calculate the HST on the base product price of 70 cents, and not the 96.5 cents.

Based on the province estimates of raising 173.3 million in gas taxes this year, the NDP move would bring the total gas tax collected to amount close to $140 million or so, almost back to 2004 levels I think.

Everyone in the province recognizes the need for taxes. It's not dropping any part of the HST or it's gas tax component. It is simply adjusting how the tax is applied, and that makes it more fair for consumers here.

If you live in another province, you might want to check and see how the tax is applied in your jurisdiction.

The Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices always included the word “Fair” in its title, and it’s only right that the government should be playing fair with consumers too.

Sometimes it’s not all the fault of “Big Oil”. Sometimes a government has culpability in high prices to consumers too.

Hope this helps!

Please pass this on so everyone has a clear understanding!

On a secondary note...

I think everyone here also knows that I am running to be the next Member of the House of Assembly for St. John's East in the October 11th general election. I have had a couple of you dropping emails on where to send a donation, and I'm grateful for your thoughtfulness on this. They are kindly accepted.

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Sorry I'm so late!
Out on the door-steps all week!

Consumers to catch a small break

Winter heating projection out

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, September 20, 2011- Consumers should see no real increases in heating oil prices this winter, if the world financial and geo-political situations stay as they are. That’s from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Winter heating projection

‘There are some factors that are playing well into the picture being formed on heating oil prices. Evidence is slowly mounting that tells me there is no room for any increase in prices, simply based on world economic, consumer and financial factors”, said Murphy.

“While investors and OPEC members are waiting for word of a possible drop in world demand based on the European Union member country’s ability to deal with debt problems and the fact that the US could possibly be entering a recessionary period. If that is the case, then it looks like there’s no reason to see heating oil prices increase beyond where they are now, barring any other outside factors. Continuing builds of distillate inventories should hopefully insulate consumers from any added increases in price at least until December month. What we see right now, essentially, is what we’ll get, but there is room for prices to drop back, if economic factors from Europe and the US come into play.”

“we’re also dealing with prices that are robbing consumers of disposable income. Prices are really high as they are now with consumers having trouble paying the prices as they are. That itself is a factor in inventory building, as consumers will only buy as much as they need to get by, and not as much as they need to be totally comfortable. Prices need to drop for all fuels in order for everyone’s economic situation to improve.”

“The other clue that there shouldn’t be any upswing in prices comes strangely from OPEC members Libya and Saudi Arabia. Both countries are calling for world oil prices to remain stable between $80 and $100 US a barrel. Generally, what the Saudis say is paid a lot of attention by oil market profiteers, and with a new government in Libya being seen as more moderate, you can bet that they’ll have some influence as well on oil prices and what consumers will pay for the immediate future.”

“Don’t get me wrong. There are still going to be people out there that will still need to fall back on rebate programs, but the news here is that the rebate programs are still in place along with the removal of the provincial portion of the HST. We’re just going to have to start working on the federal government for the removal of federal taxes on heat now. It could be a longer road to get there, but not insurmountable.”

Numbers are in.

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price change:

· Heating and stove oils show down by 79/100ths.

· Diesel is down by a penny, and…

· Gasoline is also showing down, but by 2.7 cents a litre.

Market Notes

· OPEC member nation Libya is again exporting oil onto the world markets. Numbers show the country has exported a rough 160,000 barrels a day in the last month as the war-torn country strives to revive its oil industry. It is not known when the country will again achieve its original OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels a day.

· Also from Libya, the country’s National Transitional Council (NTC) will try and arrange an increase in quota from OPEC as the country tries to recover from war. The Libyan NTC is also looking at oil prices sustained around the same mark the Saudi Arabian government is looking for; prices between $80 and $100 US a barrel. OPEC will meet to discuss the Libyan request in a December meeting in Vienna.

· Oil is still trading between $80 and $90 US a barrel as the European Union financial situation, namely from member countries like Italy and Greece, both play a role in future demand for oil. It’s thought that austerity programming and a possible world economic slowdown will stymie demand for oil products. It seems the markets are in a “wait and see” pattern as investors are waiting for proof that the worst is behind us, and that hasn’t happened yet.

That’s it for now!

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Bloggers Choice Awards

Well!

I'm so honoured!

Got a little note that tells me that the blog has been nominated in the Travel/Business category for the Blogger's Choice Awards!

You can vote and leave a comment here.

Can't believe it. I'm beside myself, as they say.

George