Hello everyone,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
Heating/stove oils to increase by 1.6 cents a litre.
Diesel to increase by 2.0 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline to increase by 1.6 cents a litre.
With oil prices increasing, refined commodity prices have also been
rising. Anticipated builds to inventories are slowing somewhat and may
be reflective of the slowdown in US domestic production being added, or
it may be a sign that demand for gasoline and related products is
picking up again.
Chinese demand still remains weak amongst
emerging nations. With the latest news on lower than expected
manufacturing data, it has to be a disappointment for those nations
hoping to export there. China remains almost shut out for the time being
as a potential market to pick up any excess of supply out there.
Finally, look here in the coming days as government has announced it
will put taxes back on your heat and light bill. I will be posting a
petition for you all to sign and have others sign as well as we are
again back to the drawing board when it comes to having the tax off
heat. It is, I feel, an important issue for everyone from seniors to
those on lower incomes. Simple fact of the matter is that this is just
as important to me to not have a tax on heat as much as there's no tax
on food!
I hope you will help me in this quest!
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Price changes for Thursday, April 30, 2015
Hello to all,
Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:
Heating and stove oils to increase by 11/100ths of a cent.
Diesel fuel to increase by 6/10ths of a cent, and...
Gasoline shows an added 2.5 cents a litre at the pumps.
Gasoline inventories continue to experience some slight drops as the run-up to the US summer driving season approaches. The traditional start of the season begins on the US Memorial Day holiday, our Victoria Day weekend. As of last week, gasoline inventories were recorded down another 2.1 million barrels.
Overall crude oil inventories out of the US last week showed another build of 5.3 million barrels.
Russia will meet OPEC members ahead of OPEC's regularly scheduled meeting in mid-June to discuss a possible cut to overall OPEC production. No doubt, the Russians would like to see a cut instituted as it would possibly raise Brent crude prices, which have been taking a pounding all this year. Present OPEC production numbers show their group producing just over 30 million barrels a day.
I'm watching rig counts as of late.
With all the news of the industry parking drill-rigs in recent months, it seems the decline in operational rigs is starting to slow. Last week saw a slight decline of 22 rigs in the US with one rig down in Canada. Any halt in decline of rigs is probably a sign that they may be starting to think about coming back online as crude prices have been seen to increase over the past ten days or so.
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:
Heating and stove oils to increase by 11/100ths of a cent.
Diesel fuel to increase by 6/10ths of a cent, and...
Gasoline shows an added 2.5 cents a litre at the pumps.
Gasoline inventories continue to experience some slight drops as the run-up to the US summer driving season approaches. The traditional start of the season begins on the US Memorial Day holiday, our Victoria Day weekend. As of last week, gasoline inventories were recorded down another 2.1 million barrels.
Overall crude oil inventories out of the US last week showed another build of 5.3 million barrels.
Russia will meet OPEC members ahead of OPEC's regularly scheduled meeting in mid-June to discuss a possible cut to overall OPEC production. No doubt, the Russians would like to see a cut instituted as it would possibly raise Brent crude prices, which have been taking a pounding all this year. Present OPEC production numbers show their group producing just over 30 million barrels a day.
I'm watching rig counts as of late.
With all the news of the industry parking drill-rigs in recent months, it seems the decline in operational rigs is starting to slow. Last week saw a slight decline of 22 rigs in the US with one rig down in Canada. Any halt in decline of rigs is probably a sign that they may be starting to think about coming back online as crude prices have been seen to increase over the past ten days or so.
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Price changes for Thursday, April 23, 2015
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for price changes for this week:
Heating and stove oils add 2.47 cents a litre.
Diesel adds 2.9 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows upwards by 3.1 cents a litre.
Refined product prices were driven upwards this week as a result of, not just the increase in crude oil prices, but also by the fact that last week saw only a modest build in overall US inventories.
Gasoline demand also shows signs of picking up in the face of higher refinery capacity coming back online. With capacity up, and numbers showing a draw against gasoline inventories, it was seen as "natural" that speculators would take advantage.
But how long can the markets follow the snow job of rising world crude supplies that still shows a glut in supply? Saudi Arabia produces a near record of an added 650,000 barrels per day in March month, well ahead of what was the norm. To add to the false reading from the markets, news this morning that storage capacity continues to be taken up in the markets. With another 158 million barrels in floating storage, it makes one wonder how long speculators can go before the truth in the markets is realised.
To add to the Saudi storage concerns and the building of false demand picture worldwide, you can also add another factor that no one is talking about...Yet!
With oil rising, it's only a matter of time before smaller producers start playing with the thought of getting back into the market of selling and pumping crude oil. With US domestic production now reaching a record 9.3 million barrels a day, almost 13% more than the same time period last year, speculators surely can see that this latest round of crude oil increases may be very well short-lived.
Regards to all, and if you have a thought, be sure to leave a comment!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Here's what I have for price changes for this week:
Heating and stove oils add 2.47 cents a litre.
Diesel adds 2.9 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows upwards by 3.1 cents a litre.
Refined product prices were driven upwards this week as a result of, not just the increase in crude oil prices, but also by the fact that last week saw only a modest build in overall US inventories.
Gasoline demand also shows signs of picking up in the face of higher refinery capacity coming back online. With capacity up, and numbers showing a draw against gasoline inventories, it was seen as "natural" that speculators would take advantage.
But how long can the markets follow the snow job of rising world crude supplies that still shows a glut in supply? Saudi Arabia produces a near record of an added 650,000 barrels per day in March month, well ahead of what was the norm. To add to the false reading from the markets, news this morning that storage capacity continues to be taken up in the markets. With another 158 million barrels in floating storage, it makes one wonder how long speculators can go before the truth in the markets is realised.
To add to the Saudi storage concerns and the building of false demand picture worldwide, you can also add another factor that no one is talking about...Yet!
With oil rising, it's only a matter of time before smaller producers start playing with the thought of getting back into the market of selling and pumping crude oil. With US domestic production now reaching a record 9.3 million barrels a day, almost 13% more than the same time period last year, speculators surely can see that this latest round of crude oil increases may be very well short-lived.
Regards to all, and if you have a thought, be sure to leave a comment!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Monday, April 20, 2015
What I'm watching in the oil markets, and what you should too.(Part one)
People are often asking me where I think oil prices are going, and what factors I'm watching out in the markets. I guess sometimes some want to build evidence on where oil prices are going because of a vested interest, or they're simply concerned with provincial finances.
...and right they should be on the last point...
It's obvious that right from "day one", we made the mistake of simply relying on revenues gained from the sales of crude oil off our shores. It's easy to say we got lazy over economy building because we had lots of cash in the coffers. This year will prove our folly over over our dependence on the price of oil, rather than the "traditional way" of building a sustainable economy.
Even easier to say that all was misdirected in the past and that not enough was invested in our future here. Either point has validity and each point may itself be wrong.
Either way, "dependence" on oil money has gotten us into some troubles with really no one answer on how to get ourselves out of the situation we now find ourselves in. If we are to get out of the situation, we're still going to have to depend on the growth of our oil sector to do it. That, my friends, is not an easy sell, although it is a sale that can be made...IF prices remain where they are today.
Let me explain:
Factor 1
A lot has been said of the effect that smaller oil companies have made on US domestic production. Some may argue with validity that "small oil" can't keep it's head out of the water without prices being higher. With the parking of drilling rigs, it seems that their case may have some valid evidence to back the fact that $55 US would be a "boil over" point to where frackers may explore and produce to overall US domestic production again, and with Brent oil prices now starting to push $63 US a barrel and West Texas Intermediate producing sales at $50 US, we may again be on the edge of seeing smaller producers re-entering the markets. Important factor to watch is the US rig count. Published pretty much on a weekly basis, watching this number start to show stability will probably coincide with oil prices that will also do the same.
Any increase in the overall rig count will, in all likelihood, start to show another drop in WTI prices, thus dragging down Brent prices again.
Factor 2:
US demand: First, for gasoline may increase the value of some oil, but in all likelihood affect gasoline spot prices first. While refiners are making a fortune right now with oil at present levels, those profits in this sector start to diminish with increasing crude oil acquisition costs. Either way, with prices somewhat lower, any company that is fully immersed in the oil industry, from the initial search to the final product, becomes a winner under the present market conditions. I don't believe that "Big Oil" even wants to see prices high, if they can make it financially further down the food chain! Summarily, demand for both gasoline and distillate products remains tepid at best, and that's not going to be a real motivator to bring prices up.
Factor 3:
Conservation efforts/Consumer outcry: While arguments for global warming persist with a lot of evidence to back it up, even more disconcerting for increasing oil prices has been conservation efforts. Don't ever doubt that consumer outcry has also been a positive motivating factor in the efforts behind conservation and protection of the environment as well! The simple fact is that, not so long ago, consumers were upset with higher oil and gasoline prices, and that spurred on efforts of government to answer back for their constituents. Consumers wanted relief and protection from higher energy costs that influenced decision-making. has had a huge effect on world consumption of oil products, and will continue to do so in the future. Witness higher automotive mileage claims and home retrofit programs worldwide, and locally, look no further to the supposed reasoning and the justifications around the Muskrat Falls hydro-electricity project.
In part two, I'll have more factors that I use in everyday life to balance my reasonings behind energy costs, and what I watch to determine further direction in oil prices. If you have any comments, feel free to drop me a line!
I will be back tomorrow night with the final numbers for this week's price adjustments!
Regards for now!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
...and right they should be on the last point...
It's obvious that right from "day one", we made the mistake of simply relying on revenues gained from the sales of crude oil off our shores. It's easy to say we got lazy over economy building because we had lots of cash in the coffers. This year will prove our folly over over our dependence on the price of oil, rather than the "traditional way" of building a sustainable economy.
Even easier to say that all was misdirected in the past and that not enough was invested in our future here. Either point has validity and each point may itself be wrong.
Either way, "dependence" on oil money has gotten us into some troubles with really no one answer on how to get ourselves out of the situation we now find ourselves in. If we are to get out of the situation, we're still going to have to depend on the growth of our oil sector to do it. That, my friends, is not an easy sell, although it is a sale that can be made...IF prices remain where they are today.
Let me explain:
Factor 1
A lot has been said of the effect that smaller oil companies have made on US domestic production. Some may argue with validity that "small oil" can't keep it's head out of the water without prices being higher. With the parking of drilling rigs, it seems that their case may have some valid evidence to back the fact that $55 US would be a "boil over" point to where frackers may explore and produce to overall US domestic production again, and with Brent oil prices now starting to push $63 US a barrel and West Texas Intermediate producing sales at $50 US, we may again be on the edge of seeing smaller producers re-entering the markets. Important factor to watch is the US rig count. Published pretty much on a weekly basis, watching this number start to show stability will probably coincide with oil prices that will also do the same.
Any increase in the overall rig count will, in all likelihood, start to show another drop in WTI prices, thus dragging down Brent prices again.
Factor 2:
US demand: First, for gasoline may increase the value of some oil, but in all likelihood affect gasoline spot prices first. While refiners are making a fortune right now with oil at present levels, those profits in this sector start to diminish with increasing crude oil acquisition costs. Either way, with prices somewhat lower, any company that is fully immersed in the oil industry, from the initial search to the final product, becomes a winner under the present market conditions. I don't believe that "Big Oil" even wants to see prices high, if they can make it financially further down the food chain! Summarily, demand for both gasoline and distillate products remains tepid at best, and that's not going to be a real motivator to bring prices up.
Factor 3:
Conservation efforts/Consumer outcry: While arguments for global warming persist with a lot of evidence to back it up, even more disconcerting for increasing oil prices has been conservation efforts. Don't ever doubt that consumer outcry has also been a positive motivating factor in the efforts behind conservation and protection of the environment as well! The simple fact is that, not so long ago, consumers were upset with higher oil and gasoline prices, and that spurred on efforts of government to answer back for their constituents. Consumers wanted relief and protection from higher energy costs that influenced decision-making. has had a huge effect on world consumption of oil products, and will continue to do so in the future. Witness higher automotive mileage claims and home retrofit programs worldwide, and locally, look no further to the supposed reasoning and the justifications around the Muskrat Falls hydro-electricity project.
In part two, I'll have more factors that I use in everyday life to balance my reasonings behind energy costs, and what I watch to determine further direction in oil prices. If you have any comments, feel free to drop me a line!
I will be back tomorrow night with the final numbers for this week's price adjustments!
Regards for now!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Price changes for Thursday, April 16, 2015
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
Heating and stove oils show an added 2.21 cents a litre.
Diesel shows up by 1.6 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a very modest drop of 8/10ths of a cent.
While oil prices started off this week at a modest $55.16 a US barrel (Brent), prices gradually started an increase after the US Energy Information Administration stated that we should start to see a drop in production coming from some of the US fracking fields where oil drilling rigs have been "parked" since prices retreated from historic highs. The EIA is predicting a drop of 57,000 barrels a day in May month as a result of a halt in further production because of higher prices.
Don't look for a surprise spike in prices, unless something extraordinary happens though. If prices do increase, look for rigs to go back to work and bring prices lower again.
Surprisingly, against all this, there are still strong signs and, indeed questions that need further research as to how come oil prices haven't retreated further based on other evidence out there. Over the last week, for example, crude oil in floating storage (in tankers being used for such) has risen dramatically to count at 152 million barrels. That's an added 20 million barrels of crude oil stored away over the last three weeks. As well, the prospects of Saudi Arabia increasing production this summer to a record 11 million barrels a day has yet to hit the markets.
Needless to say, if I was trading in the markets, I would be worried over the two notes here. The prospect of Saudi Arabia waving the production stick should really be enough to keep Brent prices lower again for the coming future. That prospect on the futures markets still shows little growth in crude prices. Numbers show a mere $63 US a barrel in the middle of 2016 and $68 US a barrel for the full year of 2017.
Might as well get used to lower oil for a while...
That's it for now!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
Heating and stove oils show an added 2.21 cents a litre.
Diesel shows up by 1.6 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a very modest drop of 8/10ths of a cent.
While oil prices started off this week at a modest $55.16 a US barrel (Brent), prices gradually started an increase after the US Energy Information Administration stated that we should start to see a drop in production coming from some of the US fracking fields where oil drilling rigs have been "parked" since prices retreated from historic highs. The EIA is predicting a drop of 57,000 barrels a day in May month as a result of a halt in further production because of higher prices.
Don't look for a surprise spike in prices, unless something extraordinary happens though. If prices do increase, look for rigs to go back to work and bring prices lower again.
Surprisingly, against all this, there are still strong signs and, indeed questions that need further research as to how come oil prices haven't retreated further based on other evidence out there. Over the last week, for example, crude oil in floating storage (in tankers being used for such) has risen dramatically to count at 152 million barrels. That's an added 20 million barrels of crude oil stored away over the last three weeks. As well, the prospects of Saudi Arabia increasing production this summer to a record 11 million barrels a day has yet to hit the markets.
Needless to say, if I was trading in the markets, I would be worried over the two notes here. The prospect of Saudi Arabia waving the production stick should really be enough to keep Brent prices lower again for the coming future. That prospect on the futures markets still shows little growth in crude prices. Numbers show a mere $63 US a barrel in the middle of 2016 and $68 US a barrel for the full year of 2017.
Might as well get used to lower oil for a while...
That's it for now!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, April 07, 2015
Price changes for Thursday, April 9, 2015
Hi to all,
I hope Easter was good for everyone and that for some it was a time of rest. At my place, between the twins, it was "chocolate madness"...
Either way, here's what I have for this week's price changes:
Heating and stove oils show a slight drop of 7/10ths of a cent a litre.
Diesel drops by 9/10ths of a cent, and...
Gasoline shows up by 1.8 cents a litre.
No doubt about it, but speculators know the start of the summer driving season is on the way, and that right now is about their only hope of scraping together any kind of a profit on their fare. April month has always been the month where we have historically seen that run-up to the US Memorial Day weekend (our May 24) that marks the start of the heavy demand gas guzzling season.
Or, at least that's what investors are hoping for!
The Canadian dollar increased slightly on news of rising oil. Earlier in this session saw skeptics balk at talk of the lifting of sanctions in Iran that would lift world crude stocks up by another one million barrels a day. They think that it will take some time to bring Iranian crude back to the markets, as the sanction agreement talks about removing sanctions as Iran conforms to the agreement, rather than immediate. The deal comes into full effect by June 30th.
Talk in the markets also reflected on Saudi Arabia increasing prices to its Asian customers, probably in a move over concerns of war costs as the drama in Yemen continues to unfold, and not because of any shortage in product availability. The Saudi's have to be careful about losing market share to other sources of oil out there. At this point, they really can't afford to lose any, now that they have a war of their very own!
"Man's inhumanity to man..."
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
I hope Easter was good for everyone and that for some it was a time of rest. At my place, between the twins, it was "chocolate madness"...
Either way, here's what I have for this week's price changes:
Heating and stove oils show a slight drop of 7/10ths of a cent a litre.
Diesel drops by 9/10ths of a cent, and...
Gasoline shows up by 1.8 cents a litre.
No doubt about it, but speculators know the start of the summer driving season is on the way, and that right now is about their only hope of scraping together any kind of a profit on their fare. April month has always been the month where we have historically seen that run-up to the US Memorial Day weekend (our May 24) that marks the start of the heavy demand gas guzzling season.
Or, at least that's what investors are hoping for!
The Canadian dollar increased slightly on news of rising oil. Earlier in this session saw skeptics balk at talk of the lifting of sanctions in Iran that would lift world crude stocks up by another one million barrels a day. They think that it will take some time to bring Iranian crude back to the markets, as the sanction agreement talks about removing sanctions as Iran conforms to the agreement, rather than immediate. The deal comes into full effect by June 30th.
Talk in the markets also reflected on Saudi Arabia increasing prices to its Asian customers, probably in a move over concerns of war costs as the drama in Yemen continues to unfold, and not because of any shortage in product availability. The Saudi's have to be careful about losing market share to other sources of oil out there. At this point, they really can't afford to lose any, now that they have a war of their very own!
"Man's inhumanity to man..."
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Price changes for Thursday, April 9, 2015
Hi to all,
I hope Easter was good for everyone and that for some it was a time of rest. At my place, between the twins, it was "chocolate madness"...
Either way, here's what I have for this week's price changes:
Heating and stove oils show a slight drop of 7/10ths of a cent a litre.
Diesel drops by 9/10ths of a cent, and...
Gasoline shows up by 1.8 cents a litre.
No doubt about it, but speculators know the start of the summer driving season is on the way, and that right now is about their only hope of scraping together any kind of a profit on their fare. April month has always been the month where we have historically seen that run-up to the US Memorial Day weekend (our May 24) that marks the start of the heavy demand gas guzzling season.
Or, at least that's what investors are hoping for!
The Canadian dollar increased slightly on news of rising oil. Earlier in this session saw skeptics balk at talk of the lifting of sanctions in Iran that would lift world crude stocks up by another one million barrels a day. They think that it will take some time to bring Iranian crude back to the markets, as the sanction agreement talks about removing sanctions as Iran conforms to the agreement, rather than immediate. The deal comes into full effect by June 30th.
Talk in the markets also reflected on Saudi Arabia increasing prices to its Asian customers, probably in a move over concerns of war costs as the drama in Yemen continues to unfold, and not because of any shortage in product availability. The Saudi's have to be careful about losing market share to other sources of oil out there. At this point, they really can't afford to lose any, now that they have a war of their very own!
"Man's inhumanity to man..."
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
I hope Easter was good for everyone and that for some it was a time of rest. At my place, between the twins, it was "chocolate madness"...
Either way, here's what I have for this week's price changes:
Heating and stove oils show a slight drop of 7/10ths of a cent a litre.
Diesel drops by 9/10ths of a cent, and...
Gasoline shows up by 1.8 cents a litre.
No doubt about it, but speculators know the start of the summer driving season is on the way, and that right now is about their only hope of scraping together any kind of a profit on their fare. April month has always been the month where we have historically seen that run-up to the US Memorial Day weekend (our May 24) that marks the start of the heavy demand gas guzzling season.
Or, at least that's what investors are hoping for!
The Canadian dollar increased slightly on news of rising oil. Earlier in this session saw skeptics balk at talk of the lifting of sanctions in Iran that would lift world crude stocks up by another one million barrels a day. They think that it will take some time to bring Iranian crude back to the markets, as the sanction agreement talks about removing sanctions as Iran conforms to the agreement, rather than immediate. The deal comes into full effect by June 30th.
Talk in the markets also reflected on Saudi Arabia increasing prices to its Asian customers, probably in a move over concerns of war costs as the drama in Yemen continues to unfold, and not because of any shortage in product availability. The Saudi's have to be careful about losing market share to other sources of oil out there. At this point, they really can't afford to lose any, now that they have a war of their very own!
"Man's inhumanity to man..."
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Price changes for Thursday, April 2, 2015
Hi to all,
With operation "Decisive Storm" underway in Yemen, crude oil prices immediately increased early in the regulatory session with Brent prices mostly affected. But with a less likely threat to shipments of oil leaving the area, it was seen to retreat again by Monday. Only question now for the Saudi's and the ten nations forming their forces in the area is: How long can they go before they affect their own bottom line? Wars cost money...
Refined product prices also showed a retreat from their weekly high. Numbers started high as a result of the Saudi Arabian incursion, but are again in retreat.
Here's what I have for this week:
Heating and stove oils show an added 1.75 cents a litre.
Diesel shows a drop of just 6/10ths of a cent, and...
Gasoline shows an added 7/10ths of a cent.
*Don't forget winter blending may throw off the Heating and Diesel fuel numbers somewhat!
Crude oil shows an increase in overall "floating storage" again this week with crude oil stored in tankers ready for sailing. It amounts to an extra 139 million barrels that has nowhere to go. That's up from 134 million barrels in the previous week.
Look for an immediate downwards track for oil if Iran nuclear talks result in Iranian crude entering the markets. Analysts say that an added 1 million barrels a day could enter the world markets if sanctions are lifted. We'll find out later if indeed talks were successful.
That's it from me this week for your update on fuel prices!
Feel free to drop a note if you have any questions.
Regards and make it a good week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
With operation "Decisive Storm" underway in Yemen, crude oil prices immediately increased early in the regulatory session with Brent prices mostly affected. But with a less likely threat to shipments of oil leaving the area, it was seen to retreat again by Monday. Only question now for the Saudi's and the ten nations forming their forces in the area is: How long can they go before they affect their own bottom line? Wars cost money...
Refined product prices also showed a retreat from their weekly high. Numbers started high as a result of the Saudi Arabian incursion, but are again in retreat.
Here's what I have for this week:
Heating and stove oils show an added 1.75 cents a litre.
Diesel shows a drop of just 6/10ths of a cent, and...
Gasoline shows an added 7/10ths of a cent.
*Don't forget winter blending may throw off the Heating and Diesel fuel numbers somewhat!
Crude oil shows an increase in overall "floating storage" again this week with crude oil stored in tankers ready for sailing. It amounts to an extra 139 million barrels that has nowhere to go. That's up from 134 million barrels in the previous week.
Look for an immediate downwards track for oil if Iran nuclear talks result in Iranian crude entering the markets. Analysts say that an added 1 million barrels a day could enter the world markets if sanctions are lifted. We'll find out later if indeed talks were successful.
That's it from me this week for your update on fuel prices!
Feel free to drop a note if you have any questions.
Regards and make it a good week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, March 24, 2015
Price changes for Thursday, March 26, 2015
Hi to all,
In what was a sleeper of a week on the markets, very little of anything was happening, including moves to any prices. I can't remember the last time they moved as little as this. But here they are:
Heating and stove oils to drop an even penny.
Diesel prices down by 1.6 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline up just 9/10ths of a cent.
All eyes focused on the challenges that are coming to US storage capacity this week as the oil markets are struggling with the fact that US domestic production has literally taken up available storage space, just another reason why analysts are talking about another possible slide in prices to come. It is estimated that, if production maintains itself and export and consumption of oil don't weigh in, we could be looking at all capacity taken up in the Cushing, Oklahoma storage and pricing facility. Some are predicting that prices could bottom out at $20 US a barrel if that happens!
The second possible threat to lower oil prices comes from what are called "teapot" producers out of Russia, who are faced with crude oil runs and nowhere to export except markets that compete with OPEC. Interestingly, Russian exports add another 800K barrels a day to worldwide production, adding to the glut.
There's lot's of downward fundamentals playing on oil, but the only upside to any increase in oil prices lately has been the thought that the US will soon begin to raise interest rates. Speculation over any increase in rates has dropped the US dollar against the Canadian dollar in the last few days. Speculators have been adding oil and gold to their portfolio's in answer to any possible rate increase.
The Canadian dollar has increased against its US counterpart by close on 2.5 cents this last week as a result, almost negating any price increases to refined product prices as a result.
That's it for this week!
...and I said nothing was happening!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
In what was a sleeper of a week on the markets, very little of anything was happening, including moves to any prices. I can't remember the last time they moved as little as this. But here they are:
Heating and stove oils to drop an even penny.
Diesel prices down by 1.6 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline up just 9/10ths of a cent.
All eyes focused on the challenges that are coming to US storage capacity this week as the oil markets are struggling with the fact that US domestic production has literally taken up available storage space, just another reason why analysts are talking about another possible slide in prices to come. It is estimated that, if production maintains itself and export and consumption of oil don't weigh in, we could be looking at all capacity taken up in the Cushing, Oklahoma storage and pricing facility. Some are predicting that prices could bottom out at $20 US a barrel if that happens!
The second possible threat to lower oil prices comes from what are called "teapot" producers out of Russia, who are faced with crude oil runs and nowhere to export except markets that compete with OPEC. Interestingly, Russian exports add another 800K barrels a day to worldwide production, adding to the glut.
There's lot's of downward fundamentals playing on oil, but the only upside to any increase in oil prices lately has been the thought that the US will soon begin to raise interest rates. Speculation over any increase in rates has dropped the US dollar against the Canadian dollar in the last few days. Speculators have been adding oil and gold to their portfolio's in answer to any possible rate increase.
The Canadian dollar has increased against its US counterpart by close on 2.5 cents this last week as a result, almost negating any price increases to refined product prices as a result.
That's it for this week!
...and I said nothing was happening!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Price changes for Thursday, March 19, 2015
..and here's the final numbers for Thursday's price changes:
Heating and stove oils show a drop of 4.65 cents a litre.
Diesel shows down by 5.6 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 3 cents even.
Just a quick note here on winter pricing that throws the Heating and Diesel numbers out of kilter sometimes. I usually tell everyone that these numbers can be used as just a "guide" on which direction prices will be going due to the use of "anti-freeze" agents such as kerosene and jet fuels in the various blends. That usually carries until the end of April month.
In other news, the US may be running out of storage room. They're actually pumping that much, they expect to see the coffers filled by June month if production keeps growing from domestic sources. That could sell trouble for oil prices. No sense producing if you can't store the stuff, let alone sell it.
I'll leave it at that for now. I'm going to be watching the US inventory data tomorrow when it is released. It should be an interesting play tomorrow as we get to see if stocks will still show an increase to crude oil reserves that will probably keep those oil prices low.
Feel free to pass this note on!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Heating and stove oils show a drop of 4.65 cents a litre.
Diesel shows down by 5.6 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 3 cents even.
Just a quick note here on winter pricing that throws the Heating and Diesel numbers out of kilter sometimes. I usually tell everyone that these numbers can be used as just a "guide" on which direction prices will be going due to the use of "anti-freeze" agents such as kerosene and jet fuels in the various blends. That usually carries until the end of April month.
In other news, the US may be running out of storage room. They're actually pumping that much, they expect to see the coffers filled by June month if production keeps growing from domestic sources. That could sell trouble for oil prices. No sense producing if you can't store the stuff, let alone sell it.
I'll leave it at that for now. I'm going to be watching the US inventory data tomorrow when it is released. It should be an interesting play tomorrow as we get to see if stocks will still show an increase to crude oil reserves that will probably keep those oil prices low.
Feel free to pass this note on!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Update #2: Final numbers for Thursday price changes
Final numbers for Thursday price changes...
Here's what I have for price changes for this Thursday. After today's drop, it all added up to just a little bit more...
Heating and stove oils to drop by 7.42 cents a litre.
Diesel to drop by 10.1 cents, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 2.2 cents a litre.
It was great to see a return of distillate prices to something of the norm before the run-up last week. Unfortunately, prices dropped a little later than predicted, but they're still showing in this week's numbers instead.
Prices dropped further today as speculators pulled out of the distillate markets, the reason being that refiner capacity is almost back to normal with just 690,000 barrels a day offline south of the border. it's also the simple fact that things are going to start to warm up now as we get back towards spring. It was time to get out.
Gasoline, not so much, although tomorrow's inventory numbers may reflect the reality that "demand" is simply not there. That may be enough to keep gas prices from starting further down, but I'm keeping a close eye to the usual excuse used as we get closer to the "summer demand" seasonal run-up as we get closer to May month's traditional start to the driving season.
That's it for this week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Here's what I have for price changes for this Thursday. After today's drop, it all added up to just a little bit more...
Heating and stove oils to drop by 7.42 cents a litre.
Diesel to drop by 10.1 cents, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 2.2 cents a litre.
It was great to see a return of distillate prices to something of the norm before the run-up last week. Unfortunately, prices dropped a little later than predicted, but they're still showing in this week's numbers instead.
Prices dropped further today as speculators pulled out of the distillate markets, the reason being that refiner capacity is almost back to normal with just 690,000 barrels a day offline south of the border. it's also the simple fact that things are going to start to warm up now as we get back towards spring. It was time to get out.
Gasoline, not so much, although tomorrow's inventory numbers may reflect the reality that "demand" is simply not there. That may be enough to keep gas prices from starting further down, but I'm keeping a close eye to the usual excuse used as we get closer to the "summer demand" seasonal run-up as we get closer to May month's traditional start to the driving season.
That's it for this week!
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Monday, March 09, 2015
Update #1: Numbers for Thursday, March 12, 2015
If you're a Heating, stove oil or Diesel fuel user and you subscribe to this blog, you might appreciate this one. I figured that I would give all notice of a good retreat in prices so you can call the shot on your delivery this week! This is the notice I posted to my Facebook page:
Six days out of seven and here's your update from the markets so far. One day to go...
Remember last week I was telling all that we should start to see some steep discounting to the distillate fuels, that they should be returning back to the start of the run-up in pricing?
Looks to be true...
So far, here's what I have...
Heating and stove oils are pointing to a drop by 7.03 cents a litre for Thursday.
Diesel shows a drop of 9.9 cents a litre at the pumps, and...
Gasoline shows just a two cent a litre drop.
Remember that we're still going to be affected by the winter blending mix, so Heating and Diesel numbers may be off slightly. Gas as well wasn't hit too hard by the run-up in prices, but was still affected. That's why it isn't down as much as the distillate fuels, so, if you hang off for a couple of more days, you'll save a small fortune at the heating and Diesel levels...
Pass this on and give all a heads up on this one. I'll be back tomorrow night with the final numbers.
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Six days out of seven and here's your update from the markets so far. One day to go...
Remember last week I was telling all that we should start to see some steep discounting to the distillate fuels, that they should be returning back to the start of the run-up in pricing?
Looks to be true...
So far, here's what I have...
Heating and stove oils are pointing to a drop by 7.03 cents a litre for Thursday.
Diesel shows a drop of 9.9 cents a litre at the pumps, and...
Gasoline shows just a two cent a litre drop.
Remember that we're still going to be affected by the winter blending mix, so Heating and Diesel numbers may be off slightly. Gas as well wasn't hit too hard by the run-up in prices, but was still affected. That's why it isn't down as much as the distillate fuels, so, if you hang off for a couple of more days, you'll save a small fortune at the heating and Diesel levels...
Pass this on and give all a heads up on this one. I'll be back tomorrow night with the final numbers.
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, March 03, 2015
Numbers for Thursday, March 5, 2015
Final numbers for Thursday, March 5th are in. Here's what I have for this week's price changes:
Heating and stove oils to drop by 1.34 cents a litre.
Diesel shows an added 3.7 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows an added 4.5 cents a litre.
I can't say that I'm not surprised that heating and stove oils didn't show more of a retreat than they are here. What I am surprised about is that the drops didn't start to hit the numbers until two days ago when they should have affected those fuels immediately after last Wednesday when they first showed a retreat!
With both Diesel and Gasoline taking a hit again this week because of scattered refinery outages in the US northeast and ongoing labour disputes, we shouldn't be surprised to find speculators taking advantage of "shortfalls" in production...all in spite of plenty of product on hand.
All Canadians should be asking themselves why we have to be so dependent upon the US markets for the pricing of a product that we produce so readily in this country. Is it time for a "Made in Canada" price to all our oil and refined commodity prices?
In the meantime, with oil showing some signs of "life" in the markets, keep your eyes to a return of smaller producers to the markets as crude prices again may make it affordable for the same small producers to enter back into the markets. My theory is that oil prices may remain low as smaller companies put product back into the markets, again weighing heavily on OPEC finances and influence.
That's it for this week! feel free to share this and "see you at the pumps!"
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Heating and stove oils to drop by 1.34 cents a litre.
Diesel shows an added 3.7 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows an added 4.5 cents a litre.
I can't say that I'm not surprised that heating and stove oils didn't show more of a retreat than they are here. What I am surprised about is that the drops didn't start to hit the numbers until two days ago when they should have affected those fuels immediately after last Wednesday when they first showed a retreat!
With both Diesel and Gasoline taking a hit again this week because of scattered refinery outages in the US northeast and ongoing labour disputes, we shouldn't be surprised to find speculators taking advantage of "shortfalls" in production...all in spite of plenty of product on hand.
All Canadians should be asking themselves why we have to be so dependent upon the US markets for the pricing of a product that we produce so readily in this country. Is it time for a "Made in Canada" price to all our oil and refined commodity prices?
In the meantime, with oil showing some signs of "life" in the markets, keep your eyes to a return of smaller producers to the markets as crude prices again may make it affordable for the same small producers to enter back into the markets. My theory is that oil prices may remain low as smaller companies put product back into the markets, again weighing heavily on OPEC finances and influence.
That's it for this week! feel free to share this and "see you at the pumps!"
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Price changes for Thursday, February 26, 2015
Updated numbers for Thursday, February 26th price changes:
Heating and stove oils to add 4.08 cents a litre.
Diesel fuel to add 6.4 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline to add 1.4 cents a litre.
If there's any good news out of this, it's that after today's trading, we should be back at seeing a drop in prices to diesel and heating oils next week. Spot prices returned today to "pre-runup" levels. They retreated today by about 25 cents a US gallon. I guess the speculators decided to get out before the latest word on inventories building tomorrow.
If you have enough to go it until next week, then you might want to hold off until then. You're also a little better off if you got the phone-call in before the price is due to increase midnight tomorrow.
The Canadian dollar mostly held steady as compared to the previous session. Last week also saw the total rig count remain mostly steady, which leads me to believe that smaller producers are seeing a flattening out of prices and are getting set to "explore" again. I'll keep watching that one.
Anyway, word is to hold off again for another week if you can at all do it to see what happens with the "retreat" next week.
Pass the word!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Heating and stove oils to add 4.08 cents a litre.
Diesel fuel to add 6.4 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline to add 1.4 cents a litre.
If there's any good news out of this, it's that after today's trading, we should be back at seeing a drop in prices to diesel and heating oils next week. Spot prices returned today to "pre-runup" levels. They retreated today by about 25 cents a US gallon. I guess the speculators decided to get out before the latest word on inventories building tomorrow.
If you have enough to go it until next week, then you might want to hold off until then. You're also a little better off if you got the phone-call in before the price is due to increase midnight tomorrow.
The Canadian dollar mostly held steady as compared to the previous session. Last week also saw the total rig count remain mostly steady, which leads me to believe that smaller producers are seeing a flattening out of prices and are getting set to "explore" again. I'll keep watching that one.
Anyway, word is to hold off again for another week if you can at all do it to see what happens with the "retreat" next week.
Pass the word!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Price changes for Thursday, February 19, 2015
Final numbers are in for this week, and yes, increases across the board again.
Here's what I have:
Heating and stove oils show an added 3.49 cents a litre.
Diesel shows up by 4.4 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows another increase, by 2.6 cents a litre.
Libyan production is almost shut in again with revolution there the order of the day. That's helped increase Brent crude prices almost $7 US a barrel this week alone, and since the last price setting.
West Texas Intermediate prices are up as well, this time by $4 US as rigs come off-line from the fracking fields. There's been a steady drop in drilling over the past couple of weeks. However, keep in mind that a lot of these wells have already been drilled and are producing, so, I would expect to see continued building of overall US domestic production.
What has helped increase oil prices are some worldwide disruptions in production, in particular Libya, but also some drop in OPEC production, but only slightly. I'll have a look at the latest US inventory reports either tomorrow or Thursday when they are next published.
Keep an eye to the oil markets tomorrow (Wednesday) and see if traders are also thinking of the possibility of the US reporting further inventory building this last week!
A last point: It seems US producers are going to have another problem. Simple really, but it seems that they're actually starting to run out of room to put their oil once they get it out of the ground. It's a problem that most OPEC countries have had in a while. OPEC producers reportedly have close on 130 million barrels in "floating storage" right now. The US projection is for them to have all available storage space to be taken up as of the end of June.
We're not quite out of the woods with oil prices yet...
That's it for now!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Here's what I have:
Heating and stove oils show an added 3.49 cents a litre.
Diesel shows up by 4.4 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows another increase, by 2.6 cents a litre.
Libyan production is almost shut in again with revolution there the order of the day. That's helped increase Brent crude prices almost $7 US a barrel this week alone, and since the last price setting.
West Texas Intermediate prices are up as well, this time by $4 US as rigs come off-line from the fracking fields. There's been a steady drop in drilling over the past couple of weeks. However, keep in mind that a lot of these wells have already been drilled and are producing, so, I would expect to see continued building of overall US domestic production.
What has helped increase oil prices are some worldwide disruptions in production, in particular Libya, but also some drop in OPEC production, but only slightly. I'll have a look at the latest US inventory reports either tomorrow or Thursday when they are next published.
Keep an eye to the oil markets tomorrow (Wednesday) and see if traders are also thinking of the possibility of the US reporting further inventory building this last week!
A last point: It seems US producers are going to have another problem. Simple really, but it seems that they're actually starting to run out of room to put their oil once they get it out of the ground. It's a problem that most OPEC countries have had in a while. OPEC producers reportedly have close on 130 million barrels in "floating storage" right now. The US projection is for them to have all available storage space to be taken up as of the end of June.
We're not quite out of the woods with oil prices yet...
That's it for now!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Price changes for Thursday, February 12, 2015
Hi to all,
Numbers are in for this Thursday's price changes. Here's
what I have:
Heating and stove oils are up by four cents a litre.
Diesel prices to increase by 4.5 cents, and...
Gasoline shows an increase of 2.6 cents at the pumps.
Diesel prices to increase by 4.5 cents, and...
Gasoline shows an increase of 2.6 cents at the pumps.
Slightly off from what was predicted for gasoline last week,
but all up just the same. Keep in mind as well that the numbers for both heating oil and
Diesel may be off somewhat due to the winter blending mix…
Oil trading up all this week didn't help the situation any
as the Canadian dollar lost most gains from earlier this session. Right back to
where we were last week. In the meantime, over the past week, Brent crude
gained about $4 US before a slight retreat today.
Most of today's drop in oil prices is directly concerned
with speculators thinking that there are still worries over
"over-supply" in the markets. They're anticipating that the US
inventory reports out of the Energy Information Administration will show builds
in overall crude oil inventory. Hopefully, gains in inventory will also be made
to refined products as well to "head off" the latest increases in
heating and other fuel prices next week!
That report will be out around noon our time on Wednesday. I’ll
tweet the numbers they find later tomorrow, so you might want to follow me there...
That’s it for now,
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, February 03, 2015
Price changes for this week. Projections for next!
Hi to all,
Final numbers for this week's price changes are in, but I also have projected increases for next week that I'm watching. What I have done here is give you this week's increase, but on the same line, give you what I think will happen with prices for next week as well. You'll find that number at the tail end of each fuel price change I give you and in (parentheses).
Here's what I have:
Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.45 cents a litre. (4.46c/Lt for next week projection)
Diesel shows an added 3.3 cents a litre. (5.1 cents next week)
Gasoline shows an increase of 4.5 cents a litre. (4.6 cents for next week)
These numbers I have projected for next week's price changes are based simply on the difference I have between my spot average for this week, and the spot price at market close for today. If nothing changes in the markets with refined prices from today, then these numbers should run close to what will actually happen next week.
Again, feel free to pass this around to everyone on your friends lists. Keep in mind the winter blending of diesel and heating oils. Those numbers may be off somewhat.
A strike by some US refinery workers has taken some 10 percent of refining capacity offline. That may be part reason why refined commodity prices have experienced the run-up that they have. Add to that, the effect of a lower Canadian dollar against it's US cousin, and we have the recipe for a rapid increase to Canadian consumer prices.
Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude have increased roughly $9 US a barrel over the last regulation period of seven days.
See you at the pumps!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Final numbers for this week's price changes are in, but I also have projected increases for next week that I'm watching. What I have done here is give you this week's increase, but on the same line, give you what I think will happen with prices for next week as well. You'll find that number at the tail end of each fuel price change I give you and in (parentheses).
Here's what I have:
Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.45 cents a litre. (4.46c/Lt for next week projection)
Diesel shows an added 3.3 cents a litre. (5.1 cents next week)
Gasoline shows an increase of 4.5 cents a litre. (4.6 cents for next week)
These numbers I have projected for next week's price changes are based simply on the difference I have between my spot average for this week, and the spot price at market close for today. If nothing changes in the markets with refined prices from today, then these numbers should run close to what will actually happen next week.
Again, feel free to pass this around to everyone on your friends lists. Keep in mind the winter blending of diesel and heating oils. Those numbers may be off somewhat.
A strike by some US refinery workers has taken some 10 percent of refining capacity offline. That may be part reason why refined commodity prices have experienced the run-up that they have. Add to that, the effect of a lower Canadian dollar against it's US cousin, and we have the recipe for a rapid increase to Canadian consumer prices.
Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude have increased roughly $9 US a barrel over the last regulation period of seven days.
See you at the pumps!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Price changes for Thursday, January 29, 2015
Hi to all,
It's been a rough couple of weeks, but I hope it's coming back to some form of normalcy now! It’s true what they say here in the province about coming in three’s too.
Here's what I have for price changes this week, all compliments of the Bank of Canada with its surprise change of rates that kicked the crap out of the Canadian dollar this past week:
Heating and stove oils show an increase of 1.22 cents a litre.
Diesel shows an added 1.7 cents a litre to come, and...
Gasoline shows an added 1.5 cents a litre at the pumps.
Keep in mind the winter blending of heating and diesel fuels that may throw off those numbers a little!
With the Bank of Canada's drop of interest rates last week, the Canadian dollar lost a full four cents against the US greenback. That cost Canadian consumers a rough 1.5 cents a litre at the pumps for all fuels I measure. The fact that this was a surprise move by the bank did not go by un-noticed, and the markets soon reacted. While it may make some of our exports a little cheaper, especially for raw resources, it also makes anything from outside the country, or based on outside pricing, susceptible to a change in prices. In this case, with fuels and oil being priced in the US, it's going to cost you a little more to buy them.
Hence, price increases to commodities like gas and heating oils.
By the way, did you happen to notice?...
While Costco still sold gasoline at a rough 87 cents a litre this past week, others like Irving and Ultramar in the St. John's northeast area only dropped prices in the area by the slimmest of margins. All retailers of fuel products in the province by the way, were recipients of a new allowable margin as set by the Public Utilities Board last week. New margins now sit at an "allowable" of close to 18.5 cents on any litre of fuel, rather than the previous 14.8 cents.
I'll be looking at that "allowable" process in the coming weeks to see if we can combat that, or at least have a fair shot at any hearing process that allowed this to happen!
That's it for this week!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, January 06, 2015
Price changes for Thursday, January 8, 2015
Hi to all,
Sorry these numbers are coming so late, but it has been a necessarily busy day to say the least!
Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:
Heating and stove oils to drop by 2.55 cents a litre.
Diesel to drop by 4.3 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline to drop another 3.4 cents a litre.
Jet fuel continues to lose altitude, but still no word from the airlines about a break to airfares and surcharges. Jet fuel has dropped again from a June high of 86 cents to today's 52.4 cents.
I'm going to keep it short and sweet this time around as it has been a very long day, but feel free to pass this note around!
Regards,
George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Numbers for Thursday, January 1, 2015. Numbers in Effect Midnight tonight!
Well, a Happy New Year to everyone in advance!
Looks like the PUB has allowed all petroleum suppliers to put price adjustments in place again as a result of the New Years holidays. Prices will be adjusted at midnight tonight as a result.
Here's what I have anyway, keeping in mind market volatility as well as winter blending that may affect diesel as well as heating oil pricing:
Heating and stove oils to drop by 1.2 cents a litre.
Diesel to drop by two cents even, and...
Gasoline to drop by 1.1 cents a litre from the regulated maximum.
#6 oil for electrical generation is now selling for $44.75 US a barrel, down from $97US in June.
Jet fuel now selling at 56.7 cents a litre, down from 86 cents a litre in June.
Brent crude continues to get pounded out there on the markets in the face of growing supplies. Last week saw US crude inventories increase by over seven million barrels and both gasoline and distillate inventories also up right along with it. The more supply, the less refined products are going to sell for. Here's hoping that the Canadian dollar rises just a little to give some of these prices a deeper swipe!
That's it for now!
Feel free to pass this around in spite of the short notice.
Regards and Happy New Year!
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Looks like the PUB has allowed all petroleum suppliers to put price adjustments in place again as a result of the New Years holidays. Prices will be adjusted at midnight tonight as a result.
Here's what I have anyway, keeping in mind market volatility as well as winter blending that may affect diesel as well as heating oil pricing:
Heating and stove oils to drop by 1.2 cents a litre.
Diesel to drop by two cents even, and...
Gasoline to drop by 1.1 cents a litre from the regulated maximum.
#6 oil for electrical generation is now selling for $44.75 US a barrel, down from $97US in June.
Jet fuel now selling at 56.7 cents a litre, down from 86 cents a litre in June.
Brent crude continues to get pounded out there on the markets in the face of growing supplies. Last week saw US crude inventories increase by over seven million barrels and both gasoline and distillate inventories also up right along with it. The more supply, the less refined products are going to sell for. Here's hoping that the Canadian dollar rises just a little to give some of these prices a deeper swipe!
That's it for now!
Feel free to pass this around in spite of the short notice.
Regards and Happy New Year!
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Numbers for Thursday, December 25, 2014
Happy Tibb's Eve!...
I used to name it after the old oil delivery company that used to be up off Wishingwell Road! Go figure, coming from me!
Here's what I have for this week's price changes. All numbers in:
Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.45 cents a litre.
Diesel shows down by an even two cents a litre, and..
Gasoline shows just a modest 6/10ths of a cent a litre drop.
Still some volatility in the numbers as the markets try to settle things out with oil prices. Don't forget the winter blending in heating and diesel numbers that may throw them off some!
Things appear at first glance to have bottomed out in the markets for now. All will now depend on consumption and the next inventory reports out of the US. With an improving economic situation stateside, look for a slight increase in oil prices, but not enough right away to bring prices in the immediate St. John's northeast area over that magical "buck a litre" scenario we've been looking at. At least, not right away!
Also, I'm not sure when they will bring in this next round of price changes. Holidays are falling in with Christmas Day and New Year's next week, so, I'm not sure when they will allow pricing changes this next two weeks.
Merry Christmas everyone!..and the "warmest" of holiday wishes!
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
I used to name it after the old oil delivery company that used to be up off Wishingwell Road! Go figure, coming from me!
Here's what I have for this week's price changes. All numbers in:
Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.45 cents a litre.
Diesel shows down by an even two cents a litre, and..
Gasoline shows just a modest 6/10ths of a cent a litre drop.
Still some volatility in the numbers as the markets try to settle things out with oil prices. Don't forget the winter blending in heating and diesel numbers that may throw them off some!
Things appear at first glance to have bottomed out in the markets for now. All will now depend on consumption and the next inventory reports out of the US. With an improving economic situation stateside, look for a slight increase in oil prices, but not enough right away to bring prices in the immediate St. John's northeast area over that magical "buck a litre" scenario we've been looking at. At least, not right away!
Also, I'm not sure when they will bring in this next round of price changes. Holidays are falling in with Christmas Day and New Year's next week, so, I'm not sure when they will allow pricing changes this next two weeks.
Merry Christmas everyone!..and the "warmest" of holiday wishes!
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Numbers for Thursday, December 18, 2014
Well, the numbers are in for Thursday.
Here's what I have, along with a few more to note. Don't forget winter blending that may throw off diesel and heating oil numbers, and don't forget HUGE volatility may be in the numbers from heavy market activity!:
Heating and stove oils are showing a drop of 1.75 cents a litre
Diesel shows a drop of 1.2 cents a litre.
Gasoline shows a drop of six cents a litre.
This time next week should see a gas price in the high eighties in the St. John's northeast region. Enjoy!...But conserve!
Jet fuel now shows an even sixty cents a litre. On June 27th that number was 86 cents a litre. To all of you, it is really time to get upset over the fact that the airlines are still maxing out on air fuel surcharges to airline customers. It's really time they give back!
#6 fuel oil for electrical generation is also down to $47.75 a US barrel. It was pricing in at $96 US in June. That means that the rate adjustment formula should bring some drop to electricity prices here in Newfoundland and Labrador. If you don't live here, you should also see some sort of break, if you use that type of generation in the grid!
The Saudi's are having a little more competition from a fellow OPEC member, Iran. With concerns over the loss of market share, the Iranians are competing for Asian customers as they try to retain their own markets. If that keep up, look for other oil-producing nations to "join in" and drop prices to their customers.
Finally, the Canadian dollar continues to take a beating at the loss of the price of oil. We've lost almost a cent and a half against the US greenback over the last week!
That's it for now!
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Here's what I have, along with a few more to note. Don't forget winter blending that may throw off diesel and heating oil numbers, and don't forget HUGE volatility may be in the numbers from heavy market activity!:
Heating and stove oils are showing a drop of 1.75 cents a litre
Diesel shows a drop of 1.2 cents a litre.
Gasoline shows a drop of six cents a litre.
This time next week should see a gas price in the high eighties in the St. John's northeast region. Enjoy!...But conserve!
Jet fuel now shows an even sixty cents a litre. On June 27th that number was 86 cents a litre. To all of you, it is really time to get upset over the fact that the airlines are still maxing out on air fuel surcharges to airline customers. It's really time they give back!
#6 fuel oil for electrical generation is also down to $47.75 a US barrel. It was pricing in at $96 US in June. That means that the rate adjustment formula should bring some drop to electricity prices here in Newfoundland and Labrador. If you don't live here, you should also see some sort of break, if you use that type of generation in the grid!
The Saudi's are having a little more competition from a fellow OPEC member, Iran. With concerns over the loss of market share, the Iranians are competing for Asian customers as they try to retain their own markets. If that keep up, look for other oil-producing nations to "join in" and drop prices to their customers.
Finally, the Canadian dollar continues to take a beating at the loss of the price of oil. We've lost almost a cent and a half against the US greenback over the last week!
That's it for now!
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, December 09, 2014
Price changes for Thursday, December 11, 2014
Hi to all,
Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:
Heating and stove oils show a drop of 3 cents a litre.
Diesel shows a drop of 4.1 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 5.6 cents a litre.
Keep in mind that these numbers are off the regulated maximum. St. John's East could be looking at under a buck a litre by Monday/Tuesday of this drop comes into effect.
I was off last week on the gas numbers, the most in months, however, I believe I wasn't really that far off as Halifax prices dropped steeply last week by better than six cents a litre. They're measured just a day apart from us here. I think the gasoline number should be a little closer this time around, but don't forget that there's still a very volatile market out there, and of course, we're still dealing with the winter heating and Diesel blends!
Oil starting to flatten?
The Asian countries are the beneficiaries of some pretty good deals on oil as Saudi Arabia is still competing with US producers. Seems as though the challenge is on and we're starting to see some US companies starting to park their plans to frack for more oil in 2015. We may be witnessing a flattening of oil output from the US, and hence, a slowdown in drops to prices, and perhaps some stability to oil and refined product.
We'll see what happens in the markets, but the last measure I had of oil producing rigs and drilling projects still didn't make it apparent that drilling was stopping. Question is, are the Saudi's ready to keep prices steady?
I'll keep an eye out.
Airline fuel surcharges should come down
In the meantime, airline customers should be asking their respective carriers why they haven't returned some savings back to customers. Jet fuel prices have also retreated sharply, with jet fuel at 86 cents a litre Canadian in June to today's 64 cents a litre. It would be a nice travel season discount to regular flyers who have been paying a fortune in airline fuel surcharges as of late. That's close to 25 percent less than what it was in June month.
That's it for now!
Regards and safe travels!
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:
Heating and stove oils show a drop of 3 cents a litre.
Diesel shows a drop of 4.1 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 5.6 cents a litre.
Keep in mind that these numbers are off the regulated maximum. St. John's East could be looking at under a buck a litre by Monday/Tuesday of this drop comes into effect.
I was off last week on the gas numbers, the most in months, however, I believe I wasn't really that far off as Halifax prices dropped steeply last week by better than six cents a litre. They're measured just a day apart from us here. I think the gasoline number should be a little closer this time around, but don't forget that there's still a very volatile market out there, and of course, we're still dealing with the winter heating and Diesel blends!
Oil starting to flatten?
The Asian countries are the beneficiaries of some pretty good deals on oil as Saudi Arabia is still competing with US producers. Seems as though the challenge is on and we're starting to see some US companies starting to park their plans to frack for more oil in 2015. We may be witnessing a flattening of oil output from the US, and hence, a slowdown in drops to prices, and perhaps some stability to oil and refined product.
We'll see what happens in the markets, but the last measure I had of oil producing rigs and drilling projects still didn't make it apparent that drilling was stopping. Question is, are the Saudi's ready to keep prices steady?
I'll keep an eye out.
Airline fuel surcharges should come down
In the meantime, airline customers should be asking their respective carriers why they haven't returned some savings back to customers. Jet fuel prices have also retreated sharply, with jet fuel at 86 cents a litre Canadian in June to today's 64 cents a litre. It would be a nice travel season discount to regular flyers who have been paying a fortune in airline fuel surcharges as of late. That's close to 25 percent less than what it was in June month.
That's it for now!
Regards and safe travels!
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Tuesday, December 02, 2014
Thursday, December 4th, 2014 Price changes
Hi to everyone,
Sorry I didn't get these numbers posted sooner, but work has to take precedent. Nevertheless, keep in mind that there's lots of volatility in the markets, so they're going to be off somewhat. And don't forget winter blending on the heating and diesel numbers!
Here's what I have:
Heating and stove oils to drop by 4.23 cents a litre.
Diesel shows a drop of 4.6 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 4.2 cents a litre.
The Canadian dollar remained relatively steady against the US dollar. In the markets, while China began buying some oil off the markets to help lift oil prices yesterday, they didn't sustain in the eyes of the speculators. With ever-growing US domestic production, OPEC faces the bold new world reality that they're facing something that they've never had to face before, that of competition.
Maybe now some parts of this world might be able to compete and grow their economies with cheaper energy. The fact remains however, that we can't forget high prices as they were. Have we learned the lessons of the folly of remaining oil dependent to supply ourselves with the means to drive our economies or our homes? Will the world turn its backs to retrofitting and other energy alternatives as viable options in a world that is oil-hungry?
Don't let our governments forget the hard lessons that so many had paid for as energy prices come down more.
We can't be held "over a barrel" again!
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
Sorry I didn't get these numbers posted sooner, but work has to take precedent. Nevertheless, keep in mind that there's lots of volatility in the markets, so they're going to be off somewhat. And don't forget winter blending on the heating and diesel numbers!
Here's what I have:
Heating and stove oils to drop by 4.23 cents a litre.
Diesel shows a drop of 4.6 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 4.2 cents a litre.
The Canadian dollar remained relatively steady against the US dollar. In the markets, while China began buying some oil off the markets to help lift oil prices yesterday, they didn't sustain in the eyes of the speculators. With ever-growing US domestic production, OPEC faces the bold new world reality that they're facing something that they've never had to face before, that of competition.
Maybe now some parts of this world might be able to compete and grow their economies with cheaper energy. The fact remains however, that we can't forget high prices as they were. Have we learned the lessons of the folly of remaining oil dependent to supply ourselves with the means to drive our economies or our homes? Will the world turn its backs to retrofitting and other energy alternatives as viable options in a world that is oil-hungry?
Don't let our governments forget the hard lessons that so many had paid for as energy prices come down more.
We can't be held "over a barrel" again!
Regards,
George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
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