Price spike warning!

Just to let everyone know that I have been tracking a large increase in prices for this Thursday coming.

Here's what I have so far this week, five days reporting:

• Heating and stove oils show an added 2.69 cents per litre.
• Diesel shows an added 2.3 cents, and...
• Gasoline shows an added 4.6 cents a litre.

There'll be more on this as the data comes in, but everyone should pass the word that there will be increases in most pricing this week.

Regards,

George

Gasoline down but distillates are up
Numbers show little change in prices

Media release

Hi to all...

I'll keep it simple for this week as I am still tied up in my election campaign.

Oil remains steady for now
Considerable worries about European debt and North American economic recovery are overshadowing oil prices this past week as oil prices and their related refined commodities held mostly steady as well.

Debt troubles in Ireland and other Euro nations are putting the emphasis back on US dollars while, at the same time causing an uneasy investment in oil. The trouble here is that if there is turmoil in economic recovery, then the impact on oil demand could be significant and we could see oil prices start to retreat.

It's going to be worth keeping an eye to, if indeed world market recovery comes into question.

Continuing oil work

A lot of people are asking me if I'll keep up my oil work in the event I do get elected. The short answer is "yes" and I will continue to keep the media and consumers informed of any pricing changes as part of the daily routine.

What's in the numbers

Here's what I have for the past week with all the data now in. These changes should come into effect this Thursday morning:

• Heating and stove oils show an added 1.29 cents per litre.
• Diesel shows an added 1.9 cents per litre, and...
• Gasoline shows a decrease of 1.1 cents per litre.

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Some numbers for the week so far...

Here's what I have so far this week.

You'll have to excuse the fact that I haven't included some of the latest oil news here as I have been busy on the campaign trail and I haven't had the time to keep track.

Not to worry, as I'll continue my oil work irregardless of how things turn out. I've had a few emails on that question already!

• Heating and stove oils show an added 1.26 cents upwards.
• Diesel shows an increase of 1.9 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline shows a drop of 1.1 cents a litre.

Six days out of seven, keep in mind! I'll be back with the final numbers tomorrow night.

George

Steady for gasoline while distillates show "down"

Hi to all...

Just in from the campaign trail where we've been quite busy.

Here's a brief synopsis of the numbers. Not much change from last nights figures, although these do confirm them for the seven day period.

• Heating and stove oils are forecast to drop by 2.07 cents per litre.
• Diesel to drop by 2.1 cents per litre, and...
• Gasoline shows an added 2/10ths of a cent, but there may be no change at all if you take into account my three tenths of a cent margin for error.

That's it from me!

Catch me on the campaign trail somewhere!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

Distillates are dropping. Gasoline relatively steady

Hi to all...

Cold on the campaign trail and it probably means that thermostats are also getting cranked, now that winter seems to be settling in. The heat bill has become an issue for some out there.

There is a little relief on the way, with oil prices moderating somewhat. The madness over last weeks market turmoil caused by the US and China playing with their positions on their respective currencies has abated somewhat, but still will flare up again when oil abates I would bet!
Still, a draw on US inventories of refined product would normally have played heavily in the markets again last week, but it never, which is curious. I'm betting that there's a lot of worry over investors damaging any economic recovery with an increase in energy prices. I'm betting that someone out there is feeling the pinch before Christmas, and they don't like what they see in the consumer's eyes. In other words, I think that investors are seeing the markets "tighten up" and there's not much "elasticity" in people's pockets.

Here's what I have as regards to this weeks pricing changes, with one more day of data to attain:

• Heating and stove oils to drop by 2.03 cents per litre.
• Diesel to drop by 2.1 cents, and...
• Gasoline to increase by 6/10ths of a cent.

I'll be back with a full run-down on the numbers after ten tomorrow night, I hope!

Regards,

George

Sorry I published late!I was out on the campaign trail. Hope you get most of the details on the news!
-George-

Oil starts downwards
Commodities unaffected by drop in oil prices yet

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, November 16, 2010- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will be paying a little more for gasoline for at least this next week, in spite of a drop in oil prices. That comes from George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

"Even though I've seen the slide in oil prices this week, coming down over five dollars since November 12th, I haven't seen the same thing happen with refined commodities", said Murphy. "What I have seen is a drop in the value of the Canadian dollar against the US greenback and that wasn't a good thing when the dollar difference is thrown in the mix. A drop of a penny against the US dollar equates to only a 4/10ths of a cent drop in fuel prices to Canadian consumers, so this weeks drop in oil prices mounted to nothing for Canadian consumers."

The numbers
"I expect very little change in distillate prices this week. Heating and stove oils show a modest 56/100ths of a cent increase, while diesel prices are showing just an added three tenths of a cent. Gasoline is expected to increase by 3.2 cents a litre on Thursday morning, so consumers may be best advised to top up the tank if they wish to tuck away a few dollars.

"If oil continues to drop, consumers can expect that prices for all refined commodities may follow provided that inventories remain up along with an elevated Canadian dollar. If the distrust of the markets right now is any consolation to consumers, this increase in gasoline prices may be short-lived.

Markets are anxious
It seems that there's some thought going into what evidence there is for any economic recovery out there While there has been a stall in US economic recovery within the US northeast areas, there is also considerable worry over Ireland's sovereign debt and the possibility of China raising interest rates. We're really not out of the woods on worldwide economic recovery just yet, and those feelings played with oil pricing this week. Investors still do not have the trust and confidence in the markets to take too much risk.

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member

Numbers so far

This week sees oil pricing to be contingent and dependent on world affairs, more so this past week than ever it was.

Oil prices this week are starting to walk a fine line between another climb and a retreat in prices based on what's been newsworthy to report this last week. The contentious debate amongst the G-20 leadership, in particularly the currency war between China and the United States, has oil all over the place on the consumer pricing map. With the US entering the fray over the value of a fixed Chinese currency, the US Treasury Department, in it's wisdom, decided that they had beter start the copy machines a'printing in an attempt to devalue its own currency. That led investors to drop the US dollar and invest their money in commodities like gold and oil, along with other currencies like the Canadian dollar.

Not so with oil's related, refined commodities which, while showing volatility, still hasn't reflected the very modest retreat in oil prices over the past two business days.

Here's what I have so far this week, six out of seven days to report:

• Heating and stove oils show an increase of just 72/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel prices show an added half penny, and...
• Gasoline shows an added 3.3 cents a litre at the pumps for Thursday.

Ouch!

Almost back to $1.16 a litre in the St. John's area...

I'll be back sometime later tomorrow night with a final breakdown on the numbers, and the "guesser" for Thursday.

Regards,

George

Oil trades up for the week
Consumers to see some increases as a result

Media release


Conception Bay South, NL, November 9, 2010- Consumers in the province will see some increases to consumer pricing this Thursday as the rise in oil prices will begin to toll on the pocketbook. That’s from George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“All data indicates a rise in prices, mitigated somewhat by the increase in the Canadian dollar against the US greenback. While the US dollar fell for the second straight week, that spurred investors to take their money from currencies and invest them in commodities, and that’s chiefly why we’ll be seeing prices increase this week”, said Murphy.

What’s in the numbers
“Numbers show heating and stove oils to increase by 2.13 cents a litre, diesel to increase by 2.5 cents and gasoline to increase by 1.1 cents a litre. With oil prices increasing by close on four dollars a barrel this week, it didn’t surprise me any to see prices go up to consumers as well. The question now is: How high can prices go before consumers start to feel the pinch from rising energy prices? How high can oil go before an unsteady economic recovery starts to feel the cost?

NDP platform includes removal of HST
This week saw the federal branch of the New Democratic Party show off a plank in its platform. The party has picked up the call for the removal of HST from heat, which is an important consumer need during the cold Canadian winter. Their platform calls for the removal of the federal governments five per cent cut of the HST from all heat with the remainder to be removed by the provinces.

-30-


For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Up five bucks in a week

There must be tears of joy in the halls of the department of finance this week!

If you have been keeping an eye to the markets this week you would be taking notice of the rapid increase in oil prices, up almost five bucks a barrel. Since last regulation period, oil prices have increased from $82.95 US a barrel to reach today's high of $87.06 US.

Perhaps when you go to fill up, you might be taking more notice of the price as well, in particular for the rising costs for heating and stove oils. Added surcharges surely are to follow again as prices increase to various transportation industries.

Be warned...

Prices are again on the move upwards...

Of interest to consumers out there, with the rising price of oil we should see some reaction to consumers spending habits start to kick in. Consumers will probably become acutely aware that it's just costing a little bit more, and that it's starting to impact what you think you had left in your wallet.

It will be no different this week as, worldwide, consumers begin to notice the bite that high energy will be taking on spending. Expect the impact to be felt in the said economic recovery. If anything thwarts that, it's high energy prices. If we notice that, does industry notice the effects on spending as well?

Here's what I have so far this regulation period with one more day of data to attain. Keep in mind the possible slight inaccuracy in the heating oil number as a result of the change to the winter heating mix change for the next few months when the price changes come out this Thursday:

• Heating and stove oils are up by 2.13 cents per litre from last week.
• Diesel shows an added 2.4 cents per litre, and...
• Gasoline shows an added 1.1 cents per lire.

I'll be back again tomorrow night with the final numbers for the week. In the meantime, drop me an email if you think you're starting to feel the effects of high energy prices agin. I'd love to hear from you!

Regards,

George

Not much change in the numbers

Hi to all...

Not much activity in the markets this week and that means not much change in the prices of fuel products for this regulation period.

Here's what I have with all seven days data at hand:

• Heating and stove oils show a drop of 12/100ths of a cent.


• Diesel shows a drop of 3/10ths of a cent, and...


• Gasoline shows an added 3/10ths of a cent.
  

Two things here:

First off, my margin for error is 3/10ths of a cent on a litre, so there may not be any change to prices this week, the numbers are that close.

Secondly...

We are entering the winter heating season where the heating oil number can only be used as an indicator as to what direction heating oil will go. The reason for that is that heating oil (#2 fuel oil) for winter heating purposes is composed of 25% of 32 fuel oil and 75% jet fuel (kerosene). I can't find a free source out of the many out there.

The number should still be solid for stove oil figures.

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

P.S: In spite of a possible by-election run, I will still be doing as I always have with the update. It'll be just like nothing changed.

No real changes to pricing this week so far

Numbers here don't show any need to run out to the pumps anytime soon.

Here's what I have so far for this regulation period. Six out of seven days reported:

• Heating and stove oils are down by 18/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel is down by a half penny, and...
• Gasoline shows an increase of about two tenths of a cent.

Like I said, no rush.

In the meantime, just a short note here. we're getting close to the winter heating season where the winter heating blend of 75% jet and 25% number 2 fuels will be out. That means that my heating oil numbers may be out slightly more than before as I cannot get a source out there for predicting the change. It cost a rough $400.00 US per month for a subscription service in order to get that i cannot spare for a while yet.

Sorry for any inconvenience this might cause to some of you out there. The numbers go back to normal again after the end of the winter heating season.

I'll be back tomorrow night with a wrap on the week!

Regards,

George

The stove oil number will remain unchanged however...

Hi to all...
Sorry I'm posting late this week. Tell the truth. You all thought I bailed, right?

George

Numbers show gasoline to drop Thursday

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, October 26, 2010- Consumers get to see another drop in gasoline prices this coming Thursday. That’s according to George Murphy of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Numbers show moderate increases to distillate prices but gasoline shows a drop. I expect heating and stove oils to increase by 64/100ths of a cent per litre, while diesel shows an added 9/10ths up. That’s been the trend with distillate as we get closer to the winter heating and Christmas shopping seasons.

“Gasoline is a little better as that fuel shows a drop of 1.3 cents a litre on the way, the second drop in two weeks. While all the numbers are not substantial, they do reflect the fluctuations in crude oil pricing the past week or so. I still expect to see oil pricing to hold close to where it is now, and for fuel prices to remain so as well, at least for the interim.

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member

Slight drops in prices for Thursday

Hi to all...
Numbers are all in for the week.
For the first six days of the period, the numbers showed no big changes coming.But that was before todays market trading that showed a drop in crude prices of close on $3.50 a barrel.
Oil closed today at just under $80.00 US after concerns were raised with China raising its interest rates and an increase in the US dollar as investors pulled out of commodities and poured money into the US dollar instead.
The Canadian dollar also lost ground against the US greenback as a result of todays market moves, losing almost a cent and a half to settle at $1.03 for a US dollar.
The Canadian dollar started out this regulation period at par with its US counterpart.
The American Petroleum Institute (API), a US oil industry representative group, also are reporting a growth in US crude oil inventory increase in their report released today.

As a result of these factors, consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will experience a slight drop in consumer prices for petroleum products I measure.

Here's what I have:

• Heating and stove oils will drop by 8/10ths of a cent a litre.
• Diesel will drop by 1.2 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline shows a drop of 1.2 cents a litre as well.

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Commodities still turbulent

Media release


Conception Bay South, NL, October 12, 2010- Consumers will still see some of the after effects of last weeks storm in the markets when the Petroleum Pricing Office and the Public Utilities Board move to adjust prices this Thursday. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Numbers are showing down for distillates. Heating and stove oils show a slight drop of just 35/100ths of a cent, while diesel shows a drop of 1.2 cents a litre on the way. Gasoline shows an increase of two cents a litre coming for Thursday.” Murphy said.

“There’s still a lot of turbulence on the markets out there. One minute I’m seeing oil and refined commodity prices rise and then sink again. I think the markets are still jittery over any economic recovery, and the markets are displaying what I’ve said already about any market recovery; that a mere couple of weeks are too premature to call the shot on economic recovery just yet. As an example, there’s a record being set for property foreclosures in the US being reported on today and that was enough to stymie any increase in oil prices and signal a slight retreat.

“To add to that, there’s a prediction of an inventory build in the works when the US Energy Information Administration releases its weekly data this coming Wednesday and that is also showing in today’s retreat. Here’s to hoping that the jitters that are out there result in investors looking at the big picture instead of taking chances in running up prices that don’t reflect market realities.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers up considerably
Consumers to get a hit on Thursday

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, October 5, 2010- The sudden rise in crude oil prices will not be going unnoticed by consumers this coming Thursday when the Public Utilities Board makes the next pricing adjustment. Word of the impending increase in prices comes from George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Oil prices have taken a sharp turn upwards this past two weeks buoyed by positive economic news out of the United States and other areas, particularly China. Consumers have already seen crude oil increase by ten dollars a barrel since September 22 and that has also resulted in an increase to the price of refined commodities.

My numbers show that heating and stove oils will increase by 3.62 cents a litre, diesel shows an upwards movement of 4.5 cents, while gasoline is also showing a marked increase upwards by 4.5 cents a litre,” said Murphy.

“I’m not surprised to see another hit like this with oil prices increasing like they have along with the mood of the investor. I’m more surprised that we didn’t see a more substantive increase in prices during the last adjustment period as other markets saw, particularly as crude oil increased by five bucks a barrel the previous week. Numbers moved marginally, but not enough to warrant a large change to prices. What should worry everyone is the speed at which the increase has occurred. Questions have to be asked about the degree of investment in oil that is occurring as weighed against the economic recovery that is actually happening out there. It seems that investors are taking an awful gamble with such a short timeframe for positive economic news that is coming in. Just two weeks ago, there was some question as to how much economic recovery was taking place, and now we see this. It could be disaster for someone and a possible oil price collapse if the word on economic recovery out there was premature.”

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Oil, and the perfect storm!

Watch out for a substantial increase in fuel prices next week!

Numbers so far this week are pointing greater than three cents a litre up for all fuels I measure. Heating, stove oils, diesel and gasoline are all pointing higher amidst what I'm calling a perfect storm caused by investor speculation. Numbers are averaging a four cent a litre increase for most fuels right now.

Improving economic indicators like China growth in manufacturing, production quota compliance amongst OPEC members and a faltering US dollar against the Euro, are all painting a picture of an increase in prices that consumers are just not going to like next Thursday.

There is a danger on the part of speculators here however...

How far can prices for refined product, and oil for that matter, before consumers revolt and put a halt to any economic recovery? How far can prices go before higher prices begin to reverse an already tenuous economic recovery because it has removed important disposable income from the economy and the consumers hands?

My guess is that it's not going to be long before we see another retreat in oil because of the folly in the markets right now. Gold hasn't hit a record high for no reason at all...

Regards, and pass the word!

George

Updated September 28, 2010

A note on Hurricane Igor

Update!

Here's all the data. Final numbers!

Heating and stove oils show a 14/100ths of a cent increase.
Diesel shows "No Change", and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 4/10ths of a cent at the pumps.
Have a good week!



Hi to all...

There's been some question as to what fuel prices are going to do this week here in the province as regards to the side effects of Hurricane Igor.

As far as I know, there will be no effects immediately as the numbers for any substantive increases are simply not there as regards to what has happened on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

Here's what I have so far, six days out of seven reporting:

* Heating and stove oils show a very modest drop of 11/100ths of a cent.
* Diesel shows a drop of just a tenth of a cent, and...
* Gasoline shows a drop of 5/10ths, a half cent down.

Another reminder to consumers in the affected areas of Igor comes this morning from the Emergency Services Act. Up to 2007, the federal government stated that gouging was not allowed under declared states of emergency and that was contained under the old Emergency Preparedness Act, repealed in 2007.

Price gouging is now covered under the provinces 'Emergency Services Act, particularly under section 23(1), which states:

Offence and penalty re: pricing

23. (1) During a declared emergency, a person in the province shall not charge higher prices for food, clothing, fuel, equipment, including medical equipment, medical or essential supplies, or for the use of property, services, resources or equipment than the fair market value of the same thing immediately before the declaration of the emergency.

(2) A person who commits an offence under subsection (1) is liable on summary conviction to a fine of up to $5,000.

(3) This section shall not apply to cost increases which, in the opinion of the minister, are reasonable and have been necessitated by the declaration of the emergency.

I would make the suggestion that, if someone were to be caught doing this sort of thing in any of the storm affected areas, that they be prosecuted to the full extent that the law allows.

Just thought I'd pass this one along as the rumours are out there of impending high prices and possible gouging out there! I'll be back with a final breakdown on what to expect for Thursday, sometime later tonight!

Regards,



George Murphy

Group researcher/ Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

No real changes to pricing this week

Just got the power back!

Thanks to Igor, this one comes to you later than usual.

You would have had it last night, but a power failure in the CBS area "necessitated" that it be sent today when power was restored.

I'll keep it short and sweet this week, as the numbers aren't showing anything substantial to be happening with prices this week anyways. Here's what I have:

• Heating and stove oils show an increase of just a mere 3/100ths of a cent. Could be no changes here at all.
• Diesel shows a small 2/10ths of a cent drop coming, and...
• Gasoline shows a drop of 8/10ths of a cent on the way for Thursday.
  

That's it from me this week!

Hopefully, we'll be back with a full update next week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Slight changes to the numbers
Consumers will see small increases to prices this week

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, September 14, 2010- “While other centers have seen substantial increases to consumer prices this past week, there’s really nothing to get alarmed about in my numbers”. That’s from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Consumers here in Newfoundland and Labrador will see some moderate price changes this week as a result of the upward increase in refined commodity prices, but there’s certainly nothing that other regions have been dealing with. The increase in value of the Canadian dollar against the US greenback has absorbed a lot of the shock of any large increase this week. I expect heating, stove oils and diesel fuel to increase by a half cent a litre, while gasoline shows a modest 1.1 cent a litre increase.

“While the US dollar lost value, investors turned their eyes toward oil and its refined commodities as a hedge against inflation, and increased their value. The Canadian dollar also gained value, especially as the Bank of Canada increased interest rates, also spurring investment in the Canuck Buck. It is also tied close to commodities like oil and gold, so the Canadian dollar was also pulled upwards as oil and gold increased in value this week.

Fast facts:

• Oil also increased this week when an Enbridge pipeline in the US mid-west ruptured, shutting out almost 670,000 barrels per day from Canada.

• OPEC secretary general Abdalla Al-Bahdri says its member nations are comfortable with oil prices between $70 and $80 US a barrel. If oil stays there in the coming weeks, they won’t intervene with production cuts. OPEC currently produces close on 26.8 million if you add in over-production on their self-imposed quota of 24.85 million barrels of crude per day.

• Canada exported just over 2.2 million barrels of crude oil per day to the United States, according to Energy Information Administration information.

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher

No big changes this week

Hi to all...

Numbers are in for the week and they're not showing any significant changes.
Here's what I have:

• Heating and stove oils are up by a paltry 5/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel shows an added 1/10th of a cent, and...
• Gasoline shows up by 4/10ths of a cent a litre.

There's not a lot happening out there this past week.

Or, so they say.

What I do hear is that there's a lot of trepidation over what's NOT being talked about in the markets...

Right now, we're looking at inventory levels that rival the Reagan era, when there was record inventory of distillate as well. If you go back to that era, it was a time when a lot more people were using heating and stove oils, so this is fast becoming a worry to investors in refined product. When it comes to all types of heating sources that are in use, numbers a couple of years ago showed that only nine per cent of homes in the US northeast (PADD 2) used heating or stove oils as their primary source of heat. That is compared to a 29 per cent market share in the mid sixties era.

Since then, heating and stove oils, since 2001 particularly, have increased in price by a rough 275 per cent in some years, and that factor alone has forced people to move away from heating and stove oils as a primary source of heating.

In the US northeast, heating and stove oils have fallen way behind the use of natural gas and electricity as heat sources.

The end is coming for heating oils, but being part of the distillate group of fuels still helps the support of its price. Because it falls within the group, it also blends well as diesel fuel, and that makes it one of the world's predominant fuels of choice today.

That's it for now!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices