Gas "up" but heating down...

Well...Now that we're starting to get winter behind us maybe we'll start to see something "constructive" happen with heating and stove oil pricing.

I can't say the same thing about gasoline, although it could have been a lot worse than what I'm seeing out there. Consider the world situation before you assome we might get a break at the pumps though, because we're not.

So far, with another business day to go before we see prices adjusted, we're looking at around a cent up on gasoline.

Stove oil prices are starting to nose down a little, around 1.55 cents a litre down for this adjustment period.

That's about 5.8 cents a US gallon down to our friends south of the border.

Like I said, that's with 13 out of 14 days recorded. I'll have a "definitive" on Wednesday morning.

So, what are we looking at out there?

We've had some more fires at refineries again, this time a couple in Indiana of all places. I'm just waiting to hear of a loss of life at refineries as the oil companies try to keep the dollars ahead of demand. I can't wait to hear a Big Oil company explain to the media why it wasn't pratising good safety measures when their refinery blows up. Keping ahead of the supply/demand curve is getting to be a chalklenge that Big Oil is finding hard to meet. Unfortunately, we get to pay more for that notion.

Inventories are getting hit hard as a result as well. Consumers still haven't seen a brick wall on pricing, although this increase isn't a substantial one, it still signifies we have a way to go before consumers realize they're being tagged for their own consumption, far beyond the actual value of the stuf they're putting in the tanks. We are, in fact, the authors of our own demise on pricing.

The more we ignore the rise, the more apt we are to make a heavy impact on inventories, which means?...You guessed it..the more we impact the price.

$1.13 and change might not sound like a lot to consumers elsewhere like Europe, but it sure is a heck of a lot here, and it's going to get worse.

See, this is the season when, directly before the summer deand season, we see increases in gasoline inventory, in spite of refinery shutdowns.

Not this year...

I think this is the first year I have seen in my ten years of analysing pricing that gasoline "user season" has actually matched the demand for distillates in the winter season.

Another analogy and a little prediction too. You are going to witness the summer season become matched to the gasoline demand season. Why?

Jet fuel demand is up and, if the economy remains strong, distillates like diesel will be in hreavy use just to keep the goods moving to eager consumers.

When the tractor trailers move, pricing does too.

That means a higher starting point for which heating and stove oils have to begin the run-up in pricing for next winter. Not enough time to build inventories and a strong demand.

Could be a cold one for some...

Lastly. Keep an eye to the Iran and United Nations situation, all over Iran's "want" of a nuclear program. They think they have the right to produce energy by nuclear programming while the world outside of the Russians and China seem to think they don't. The "arrest" of 15 British sailors from the HMS Cornwall in the Persian Gulf will also start to figure on pricing as the Middle East again heats up bringing pricing up along with it.

See what happens on Thursday but pass the word for now...

Regards,

George