Trump taking credit for lower oil? You're kidding, right? Price changes for Thursday, November 29th, 2018

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes. Keep in mind that these numbers will be updated to contain Tuesday data in the final numbers. Also, distillate fuels like heating, stove oil and Diesel may be off slightly due to winter blending.

*Heating and stove oils show a drop of 5.2 cents a litre.

*Diesel fuel shows a drop of six cents a litre, and...

*Gasoline shows a drop of 3.2 cents a litre.

Market highlights

Trump tries to take credit for lower prices

     Donald Trump is trying to take credit for lower prices, but the reality of his words may come back to haunt him.

     Why?

     Well, the lower that oil prices go south of the border, the more likely he is to damage the growth in U.S domestic production!

      For some time now, growth in the shale fields was based simply on more money earned for a higher oil price, so lots of junior producers and some majors went back to the drilling fields and domestic production blossomed right along with it.

      But now that oil prices are slipping, the prospect of better profit margins is slipping away. Some may be taking that sober second thought about entering the energy field while such insecurity reigns. And the Saudi’s and OPEC may be quick to lash out.

      Will he be so quick to take credit if the markets collapse again?

Saudi Arabia and OPEC worried?

       While oil prices have been slipping, the prospect of lower revenues to Middle Eastern exporters again is coming into focus with most of that pointing directly at Saudi Arabia, who have to be worried that unrest again will bring unease within its borders as happened in 2014.

      The last time prices collapsed, the Kingdom was left with much lower revenues and was forced to cut back on some major programming, and faced a larger than usual problem of keeping everyone happy who had been drawing from the kingdom’s riches.

       If the Saudi’s and OPEC, in concert with Russia, decide to cut production, it could have the reverse effect and open the markets to the whims of growing U.S domestic production, thus complicating their end desired result.

       If they maintain present levels, the markets may see it as over-production and that would likely send oil lower causing grief within its borders.

Demand lower?

      Trump’s tariff war against China is helping to send oil prices lower.

      As the prospect of an economic slowdown as a result of tariffs on goods from China into the U.S grows, the promise of lower oil use in China, the world’s second largest consumer, is also weighing on the markets.

      In the meantime, U.S inventories reported a build in crude oil inventory in spite of an increase in refiner capacity.

      Distillate inventories were also down, but less than expected and gasoline inventories reported a drop of just shy of 1.3 million barrels.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil