Tuesday, July 14, 2020

Price changes for Thursday, July 16th, 2020


Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating, stove oil and Diesel all show no changes to prices this week.
*Gasoline shows an increase of 8/10ths of a cent a litre.

Market highlights

OPEC meets this week
OPEC members will meet again tomorrow to discuss a partial lifting of cuts that are scheduled to be lifted as some countries economies open up again.
     OPEC cuts were supposed to ease somewhat at the start of August, going from 9.7 million barrels a day to 7.7 million barrels a day. The move is anticipated as OPEC does not want to cause any alarming fall in the price of crude, nor does it want to cause any harm to any economic recovery that may be underway.
     At the same time, OPEC members need the revenue, so there is still support for prices to be sustained over $40 US a barrel to help top up lost revenues.
     Meanwhile, new data from OPEC is showing there was stronger than usual compliance with production cuts in June month with numbers showing OPEC members actually cut 10.5 million barrels a day, well over the 9.7 million members had agreed to.

Chinese storage drying up quickly
Those readers of the update will recall just two weeks ago that I reported that data out of China indicated they were buying low and filling strategic reserves. Further to this, tanker traffic has become backlogged with unloading not going off as planned, another strong indicator of just how fast Chinese storage capacity has filled up.
      Information at that time showed China buying more than two million barrels a day more than what consumption figures were showing, ironically a figure being discussed by OPEC as the total they will throw into the markets.
      If Chinese storage does fill up, and offloading ceases in Asia, the  we may have another problem starting where, in addition to a partial lifting of cuts, plus waning China purchases, could put 4 million barrels of crude a day back onto the oil markets again.

US inventory data
The latest US EIA inventory data is out, and crude oil added 5.7 million barrels of crude to US supplies.
     Gasoline dropped 4.8 million barrels, while distillates added 3.1 million barrels on 77.5 percent refiner capacity.
     US domestic production was reported at 11 million barrels a day for the third week in a row, indicating a steady output with prices averaging $40 US a barrel.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil  

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