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Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Price changes for Thursday, July 30th, 2020

Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this week’s price changes:

*Heating and stove oils to increase by 4/10ths of a cent/Litre.
*Diesel shows an increase of 3/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
*Gasoline shows an increase of 1.1 cents a litre.

Market Highlights

Rise in Covid counters any price increases
The news this past few days has been centered around the rise in Covid-19 cases worldwide as Covid fatigue has sparked a new round of cases that has speculators worrying over the effect on demand for refined product.
     With new cases rising in Spain and Australia, besides what’s been happening in the US, concerns for any further increase in crude prices remain in doubt as demand is seen to be hit.
    Oil prices have been mostly steady with refined product prices remaining where they have been over the past three weeks now as Covid numbers have been rising steady in recent weeks.

US EIA inventory data
US crude oil inventories increased up to the week of July 17th, adding 4.9 million barrels to present stocks.
     Gasoline inventories dropped by 1.8 million barrels, while distillates increased by 1.1 million barrels.
     Refiner capacity was recorded at 77.9 percent.
     Meanwhile, also buried deep in the data, some reason why I think prices will remain fairly steady at $40 to $43 US for Brent for the time being.
     The same inventory report for last week also showed an important increase in US domestic production, which increased 100,000 barrels, rising from 11 million barrels a day to 11.1 million barrels.
     If this is any important notification, then it shows that according to the timeline, US shale drillers can survive at $38 US, and some spigots are quick to turn back on to take advantage of rising oil prices.
     Also, after a long series of drops in overall US rig counts, the report for last week from Baker Hughes, showed an increase of but ONE rig getting back to work in the oil patch. If that trend upwards shows this next week, then expect there to be some spark to keep it playing in the oil markets to mitigate any further increase in Crude oil.

Canadian dollar gains ground
The Canadian dollar has increased in recent days, rising from $1.36 Canadian against the greenback on July 16th, to today’s $1.337 Tuesday noon.
     The increase in the dollar has mitigated further any increases for the week as a higher dollar tends to benefit Canadian consumers against US prices.

That’s it for this week!


George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyOil  

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