Numbers off?

Sounds strange, I know, but true.

The numbers for heating oil were off but we already knew that that might happen. As I said often before that the winter heating blend was different and that we could only go by the stove oil number to use as a guide during winter months until I find a source for kerosene. That's because kerosene is used as an anti-freeze agent during the winter months on a 75/25% mixture. That's why the stove oil number was within the margin for error.

As for gasoline? Different story...

I've checked and re-checked, and they still show the same: that increases should have happened that would have taken gas up by five cents a litre.

Thankful?

Yes, but now people may be questioning my accuracy.

I've checked three sources online and all are showing that my numbers are dead on, so, I can't explain the differences. I even went to three different gasoline types and they all showed increases over the past week ranging close to 6.6 cents a litre on gasoline that was supposed to be there. That was for a reformulated blend out of New York harbour, as it is known in the markets.

Conspiracy?

I can't say, but it has been mentioned before that someone may be making calls to someone down the line to hold back on putting the full charge to the consumer in an attempt to discredit. But tonight, the reality is that we got tagged with 2.5 cents at the pumps rather than the five I had, and I really can't go searching for that extra 2.5 cents.

Maybe they made a mistake in their numbers, after all?...

Naaa!...

Maybe they're "banking on it" for later!

Regards,

George

Update:

Prices to increase again
Refinery outages and political unrest increase oil pricing

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, May 19, 2009- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will, again see an increase in all fuel prices when the Public Utilities Board sets prices this coming Thursday at it’s regular price-setting, that’s according to George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“Political unrest and refinery outages south of the border are being mentioned as key reasons why consumers here will see prices increase this Thursday morning. Consumers can expect to see an added two cents on gasoline prices, 2.4 cents on diesel and 2.08 cents a litre onto heating and stove oil pricing this Thursday morning,” said Murphy.

“Rumors are rampant in the markets that there is considerable disruption and loss of life in Nigeria in the delta region over these past few days. Add to that, the fact of several refinery outages and we have the impetus to see prices increase on fears of disruptions again. Even though refinery capacity and utilization rates sit at close to 84 per cent, it seems that the refinery disruption scenario is manufactured by industry and is easily curable and we know that there have been supply concerns from the Niger Delta region for years now. It is inexcusable to see prices increase to consumers with this information!

“Demand figures are, at present close to two percentage points down from last year at this same time-frame. Consumer demand for oil products such as distillates remains low at 14 per cent below last years levels. Jet fuel demand has dropped by almost 11 percentage points against last years numbers and industries numbers are telling us that prices will increase? The information available out there is telling us that consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador as well as the rest of North America are all being taken for a ride this week.

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For more information, contact:

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

To keep you up to speed...

Just to keep you all up to date on what's going on with prices...

Hold off on everything.

Heating and stove oils are showing seven cents a litre down, Gasoline is down by 8 and diesel is showing 5.8 cents a litre down as well.

With two more days to become a reality, I would expect that all fuels will fall under the guise of the confines of the interrupter formula and all pricing should be down AT LEAST that much as of Thursday.

I'll be cautious though, as there are still two more days data to get yet.

Stay tuned...

George

Ike crisis passes
Gasoline and heating fuels to drop tonight

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, September 17, 2008- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will experience a huge drop in gasoline and heating oil prices tonight when prices are set by the Public Utilities Board.

“Consumers in the province rode the wave that Hurricane Ike brought with it on Sunday night and they’ve done their part in conserving in the face of the crisis. Tonight, pricing for all petroleum products are showing strong downwards turns as a result of the restraint they practiced. That, along with drops in the prices for crude and their related products, leads me to believe that the interruption formula will be used to drive prices back to something more bearable in the next few hours. Numbers are showing in excess of 11.7 cents a litre down for gas and greater than 4.5 cents per litre down for heating oils,” said George Murphy, group researcher for the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“My guess was that the PUB was going to have to step in here and return the market to some normalcy after the news on Ike. The news of economic bailouts for some major financial firms also helped motivate the numbers down because of economic fears and fears of a drop in consumer demand connected with that.

“The PUB did its best in protecting consumers during this crisis. Consumers here were protected over the weekend and didn’t face the “Ike Hike” until Monday morning. When prices come down, it would have been a three day window where prices would have been up. Prices in other markets rose in some jurisdictions as soon as the same day. Toronto, for example, increased prices by 13 cents and didn’t come down until Monday night, a full five days. Here, we experienced a three day increase that will be passed back to consumers as early as this evening.

“Retailers in the province also played their part in the Ike scenario. They protected themselves by buying early when news of Ike initially broke and there was a much talked about possibility of a run-up in gasoline pricing. They didn’t have to face high prices of purchase when they hit because they bet against that news, a process known as hedging. They learned from past experience and it paid off in spades for them.

“Consumers should also be aware that, while there is a slight correlation between crude and gasoline prices, gasoline is traded as a separate refined commodity on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Just because prices for crude are down, that doesn’t necessarily mean that related refined commodities prices are also. In this case, while crude oil traded down over the last few days by something in the area of $9 US downwards, gasoline is showing close on twelve cents a litre down.

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Interruption possible for all fuels
Recent market activity warrants the use of interrupter formula

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, July 22, 2008 – Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador can expect to see the use of the Petroleum Pricing Office’s interruption formula this week as all numbers are showing that gasoline and heating-stove oils have met the criteria required.

“Consumers can expect to see the use of the formula for gasoline as well as for heating and stove oils. I also expect that diesel will also fall under the criteria based simply on the most recent market activities. When oil pricing loses as much as it did last week, then you also expect for the related refined commodity to do the same,” said George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“With five of seven days data at hand, I have gasoline to drop by 9.9 cents a litre and heating-stove oils to drop by 7.7 cents a litre. Initial numbers showed a 9 and 6 scenario was the more likely based on the first two days data. The heating oil number may be a good indicator of where diesel may be going as well. We now have five days and that’s why the numbers have changed. I expect there to be little change when the other two days data become available.

“Markets for oil traded down based on the troubles the markets are seeing with the world economy right now. We’re facing economic slowdown, a drop in consumer demand overall and that has led to some tidy gains in oil and commodity inventories. The previous fears of an economic blockade against Iran and it’s pursuit of a nuclear program abated somewhat and the possible supply disruption scenario from that area was gone from the traders basis for the elevated price. Hence, the consumer will see some relief in pricing this week.

“We know that high pricing has become an undue hardship for a lot of people and we’ve written a note to the Public Utilities Board asking them to pass these substantial savings on to the consumer in this province ahead of the ‘scheduled’ interruption price change to consumers. We want these savings passed to consumers for Tuesday midnight instead of the Thursday implementation just to bring emergency relief to consumers out there. Based on the performance of the dropping price in other markets, I think we should like to see something happen here sooner rather than later.

“Right now, some markets have seen corresponding drops in numbers where there is still competition in the areas involved. Some areas of Toronto have seen pricing drop by as much as what I have on paper for this area now. We need to see some redress to consumers and being as extraordinary situation as we’ve seen in the markets since last Tuesday; I feel that the consumer in Newfoundland and Labrador deserves to see the break early.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer group for Fair Gas Prices
gasprices@hotmail.com

By the way, be sure and leave any comments you might have. They all help... whether constructive...or not...lol

What goes up...

Must come down...

I know...

This increase surprised me a little too...

I just didn't know anything about retailers looking for the added 1.25 cents on their margins, not that they didn't deserve it now mind you. What makes me sick about it is that the 'majors' will get it too, as far as I know.

All in all, my numbers in the end allowed for an added 7/10ths of a cent a litre (with my margin of error of 3/10ths of a cent) on gasoline and I also had 2.9 down on heating and stove oils. It was that extra 1.25 added that put the screws to my numbers this time.

Here's what I wanted to let you all in on though...

I've been getting a lot of emails on why our prices haven't come down the same as other jurisdictions and I do have an answer for everyone on that...

Hold off as much as you can until next Thursday, the 24th...

Here's why...

Our regulatory system uses what I like to call a "passive" system of regulation; that is, it waits for events to happen in the markets for a two week period and then reacts to what has occurred during that two weeks of business. Prices that were set this morning were set based on the timeframe of July 2nd and July 15th, from a Wednesday to a Tuesday.

Tuesday was when we saw oil first take it's precipitous dip down, if you remember...

The problem here was exactly that; that prices didn't dip for oil until that last day of the regulatory period. Call it bad luck, but other markets including the immediate Toronto markets, saw prices for gasoline hit $1.40 for the same timeframe which is not unusual for what we saw in crude oil prices.

Our prices never moved during the same time...

Here's where we might see something happen the other way however...

The fall in crude oil prices continues, so much so, that my numbres are already showing the likelihood of a interruption scenario taking shape, only this time DOWN in price. With only the first day of the regulatory period on record, already I'm showing dowjn on gasoline by near eight cents a litre and heating/stove oils down by nearly the same.

I'll be cautious on this one though...

Anything can happen in the markets that might see a complete and utter reversal of what Tuesday saw in the markets and the whole interrupt scenario might be thrown to the wind. I'm holding back on my purchases in the meantime in the hopes that we might see something in the offing next week.

You might want to do the same...

Reagrds,

George Murphy

Gasoline prices to stay steady
Heating and stove oils to increase

News release

St. John’s, NL, September 11, 2007 – Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will not see any major increase in gasoline pricing but users of heating and stove oils are advised to get ready for increases. The Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices is advising home owners and users of distillates like heating and stove oils to get ready for increases in their respective products.

“Gasoline numbers are showing a modest two tenths of a cent increase while heating and stove oil users will be looking at close to 2.3 cents a litre up this coming Thursday morning. Those numbers are with twelve out of fourteen available data days,” said George Murphy, group researcher and member of the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

“This is the time of year where the focus has switched from gasoline to users of distillates like heating and stove oils. Even jet fuels are showing added demand and that may add to future increases as that fuel is added as an antifreeze agent during winter months. We’re advising consumers to shop around this heating season. Some companies offer insurances and maintenance programs that rival other companies but pricing of heating and stove oils can vary greatly and that’s where the consumer can win big.

“Gasoline spots are showing a difference of eight cents a litre against last year while heating/stove oil numbers are six cents a litre higher. That could mean trouble if we don’t see a build in distillates before the weather turns colder. I think that consumers are probably a little more concerned with the costs of heat as heat is a health concern unlike gasoline.

***Note to readers: As of the 12th, I have numbers that show an allowable increase in heating and stove oils by 2.62 cents a litre while gasoline shows an allowable increase of 15/100ths of a cent, not including the tax component.That's based on 14 out of the possible 14 busines days that are available. Unknown as to why the Public Utilities Board numbers are so far out of whack with mine.

I'll still stand by mine however!

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Editors: Please note the change in contact information.

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/MemberConsumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

gasprices@hotmail.com