Markets on hold?

Hi to all…

The numbers are in, but there’s a lot of market volatility in them.

Heating and stove oils show a slight increase of 26/100ths, diesel is up by 1/10^th and gasoline shows a downwards move by 2.1 cents for this coming Thursday.

I will caution everyone, however, coming from the last few weeks where market volatility has thrown my numbers off-kilter over the term. My numbers are different from those of the Public Utilities Board are different than mine. They are mandated by the petroleum Pricing Act to use Platt’s as their service.

Their numbers may therefore, be different than my own.

News

• · The world financial crisis is again entering the picture with financial markets in turmoil as the possibility of a Greek default on its debt is again coming to bear. Also, the country of Italy’s debt is now becoming a factor.

• · The American Petroleum Institute is finding a build in gasoline inventories this week, as demand concerns have again entered the picture in the US.

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Meeting with the PUB

Not long out of the meeting with the Public Utilities Board.

The meeting
That meeting was centered on the fact of the disparity between the numbers I have versus the numbers that the PUB uses in their operations. Keeping in mind that they are mandated under the petroleum pricing Act, they have no other choice but to use an industry standard that gives them historical accuracy in figuring out their numbers. Their numbers are exactly that: the numbers that are also used in other jurisdictions like Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.

In this case, they are mandated to use a subscription service provided by Platt's Oilgram, who have been at this sort of thing for years, and at a substantial cost to the Board.

In looking at their numbers, I was convinced that they had right information, based on what they use, and I have no choice but to concede to the point that their information is accurate and supported.

Mine however, while they are free, are probably subject to some error and another reason why I always have a margin for error. Theirs doesn't, unless Platt's publishes wrong, and then they make the correction to that, and it's applied back in figuring out numbers to the consumer. Compared to that, mine are a "rough call" in what actually happens from week to week.

I still stand by them for the work they do, in spite of what I said on a local call-in show the other day. I was wrong when I connected them to "Big Oil" and I retract that comment. They're a great bunch down there that do good work, and I owe them better than what I took as grab by "Big Oil." They're no way connected. Again, they only do what's mandated under the Act.

Did "Big Oil" have any influence on the numbers in the markets that week? I don't know, but I think we all know now that when it comes to my numbers, the investors played hard and fast, so much so that my numbers this week would have showed a close on five cent a litre increase to the consumers out there for gasoline, a net 4.6 or so over the past two weeks. They didn't show as greatly in their numbers.

Their numbers showed an upwards movement by 3.7 cents or so.

Now we all know why I like the work of the Board, and why I still stand by regulation. I'm sorry I ever thought or spoke a bad word about them. This week, they proved their worth.

As I've said before, in this case there's just no way I can account for all the market volatility. In my case as well, I'll have to start a new search for more accurate info.

Regards to all,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers are in

First things first...

I'm waiting on a call from the Public Utilities Board on a yet to be scheduled meeting centered around what transpired with my numbers and what they had in last week's price change. I still say that numbers should have retreated and then this weeks should have seen the adjustments for the markets in the week following.

Either way, they didn't jive...

Here's what I have for this week, with all the numbers in:

• Heating and stove oils are down by 24/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel numbers show no change, and
• Gasoline: I want to reserve what I have here in the hope that the numbers will come back on track. I will say however, that they show "up".

I want to see what they're going to do this time. I hope you all understand, at least this time around!

Regards,

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

PS: After publishing this notice, I received a note from the PUB with a notice of a meeting with them for this Thursday afternoon.

Work in progress
You may note some changes

Welcome to the new layout!

I'm not finished yet, and there are a few more things I want to add, but please let me know what you all think of the new look, or if there's something you'd like to see added to the blog, drop me a note.

I'll be back later tonight with a breakdown of the numbers, baring in mind that I will be holding off on my gasoline prediction as a result of what happened with the synopsis last week. I want to see if things are "going to come up even" before I start in again.

Regards,

George

What happened?
I simply don't know...Yet

Hi to all…

I simply don’t have the numbers here to justify this increase to consumers, plain and simple.Prices that consumers were paying last week were set on the basis of a base price of 73.25 cents a litre, based on my numbers.

For the past week, (this week’s price setting) the numbers averaged 72.89 cents a litre, a drop of 4/10ths when you also account for taxes.

Here’s the numbers for what I had this past week for your reference:

· August 24^th: 74.51 /Litre

· August 25^th: 72.40 /Litre

· August 26^th : 71.87/Litre

· August 27^th: 71.87/ Litre

· August 28^th: 71.87/Litre

· August 29^th: 70.91/Litre

· August 30^th: 76.86/Litre

It is only during the day of August 30^th that there was any kind of upwards movement. That was simply because of the effects of Hurricane Irene, which investors used as an excuse for bumping up spot prices on the NYMEX. There is simply no justification to this move upwards in prices this week. One refinery closed as a precaution and there was no major damage to any oil company infrastructure. The refinery that closed, closed voluntarily as a precaution and two others reduced production during the storm.

Based on that last days number for the 30^th, I was making initial projections that consumers would be possibly taking a hit next week for the continuation of gasoline trading high for this adjustment period for the next price change, as the trend has been set.

On first appearance, the PUB has raised prices for Big Oil to account for a “supply disruption” as they attempt to protect Big Oil’s monetary losses for this price change. It appears that they’re trying to insulate Big Oil from taking any monetary losses for this week when, they have done consumers a dis-service.

If there is, I don’t have it and the people of the province needs an explanation of the methodology used by the Public Utilities Board in setting prices this week.

I’m calling for the immediate appointment of a consumer advocate to protect the consumers interests in the setting of prices. I’ve been doing this for fourteen years now, watching the markets and the PUB setting prices, and, as far as I’m concerned, the evidence shows otherwise when it comes to what consumers should have received at the pumps this morning.

Frankly, I’m disgusted. I’m sticking by my numbers…

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Hurricane Irene aftermath

Just spending some healing time looking over the markets here today. I was curious why US consumers were being screwed by Big Oil overnight with gasoline prices on the MYMEX rose so suddenly in the wake of Hurricane Irene, and why some Canadian consumers are also experiencing a spike in prices.

All totally unjustified, as it turns out.

Only one refinery faced a shutdown during the hurricane event, and that was a controlled shutdown. In spite of that, there appears to be no major damage and the refineries are all operating normally. The exception to all this was the Connoco Phillips Bayside refinery in New Jersey that faced the shutdown. With a daily output of 238,000 barrels per day, it wouldn't make that much of a smack in the availability of product to consumers.

There has to be someone in the US that should be able to bring some of these speculators to task for putting the thumb-screws to consumers immediately before the Labour Day holiday.

Here in Canada, while spot prices aren't showing an increase to Newfoundland and Labrador consumers, the writing may be on the wall for us next week, if we don't see the markets retreat from the spike in prices. Cash petroleum prices rose from Monday's $2.74 a US gallon to Tuesday's $2.97 US a gallon, a 23 cent increase overnight.

Sometimes, it's just not all that rosy being tied into the New York Mercantile Exchange.

I'll be in touch!

George

Oil prices up
Distillate users to be hit hardest

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, August 30, 2011- A four dollar increase in the price of oil will hit distillate users the most this week when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices this coming Thursday. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas prices.

“Oil prices increased this week with some positive economic news breaking all week, especially with housing unit sales in the US and a draw-down of crude oil stocks last week. Oil has risen by close on $4.00 US a barrel in the process. Now investors are also trading on supply fears with some minor refinery outages and re-starts in the US northeast in the wake of Hurricane Irene. Hurricane syndrome is at play in the markets, especially with a sharp upwards movement in gasoline prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange today that took a chunk out of consumers’ pockets this week,” Murphy said.

Distillate movement not good

“Distillate users will notice increases across the board with heating and stove oils forecast to increase by 2.54 cents a litre. Diesel prices will also spike upwards with numbers showing an added 1.9 cents a litre. Gasoline initially showed a drop of close to a cent and a half but that is now showing just a four tenths of a cent decrease on the way to consumers after today’s speculative trading. Distillate movement upwards was indicating a turn of attention away from gasoline to distillate fuels as of yesterday, indicating the close end to the summer driving season, and the approaching winter heating season.”

Conflicting news

“I monitored this storm closely, in spite of the few refinery complexes in the US northeast. Initial word from several news sources indicated that there were no problems with refinery outages just last night to today’s news of flooding in some refineries along the eastern seaboard. A “investors panic” set in the markets that I like to call ‘Hurricane syndrome’ and the result was a 23 cent a US gallon increase in price from Monday’s market close to today’s market close. Someone in the US really needs to investigate the reasons why there was erroneous information spread like wildfire in the markets and put a stop to the speculation. They simply aren’t dealing with the reality of the situation. I would have expected a drop in imports of oil to the US northeast and an increase in gasoline supply, as demand would have wavered in the wake of the storm. The end of this pricing session does not bode well for next week’s gasoline setting, let alone winter heating oil prices. Frankly, I’m worried about the coming winter again.”

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Good news...and bad news this week so far

Numbers are still showing what crude oil is telling us this week, but it seems that the emphasis that the markets are showing are now turned towards the distillate fuels. With the end of the summer driving season near, it seems like the eyes of the investor have turned away from gasolines.

Here's what I have for this pricing session so far. Six days of data:

• Heating and stove oils are up by 2.44 cents a litre.
• Diesel is up by 1.7 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline is showing down by 1.2 cents.

I'll be back with the final numbers tomorrow night!

George

P.S: Thanks for all the kind words. Seems like the old back of mine is still feeling the effects of the accident two weeks ago, but the doc is telling me to take things slow and give it time...

No changes for this week

Hi to all.

Sorry that I didn't post anything last night. I was involved in an accident last week that literally had me on my back for a week. Hopefully, the doctor will clear me to be up and around from now on so I may be able to track things like news items for you all again. It's thrown me for a loop this time around.

In short...

There’s absolutely nothing that is going to happen this week with prices. At least, according to my numbers and if you account for my 3/10ths of a cent margin for error, so, I’ll be short and sweet.

Here’s what I have for this week:

• · Heating and stove oils show a drop of 3/100ths of a cent a litre.

• · Diesel shows an upwards movement by 1/10^th of a cent, and…

• · Gasoline shows no changes to pricing for this week.

In some ways, you have to like that.

That’s it for this week…

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Markets rebound

Consumers to see slight increases to prices

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, August 16, 2011- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will experience a slight change to prices for petroleum products when the PUB adjusts prices this coming Thursday morning. That’s according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

“There has been a slight rebound in the markets that has also led to an increase in refined commodity prices,” Murphy said. “with the price of oil increasing by four dollars a barrel again, we’re looking at the Canadian dollar experiencing some recovery. That has lessened the blow somewhat.”

“I expect heating and stove oils to increase by just 65/100ths of a cent, while diesel shows an added 7/10ths of a cent. Gasoline shows an added 2.7 cents to consumers for Thursday’s price change.”

“The markets are extremely nervous and there’s still a lot of instability that’s playing through. I don’t expect to see a skyrocket movement upwards in oil prices, unless there is more concrete evidence of economic recovery. The jitters in the markets certainly played through again today with data from Germany beginning to show evidence of an economic slowdown happening in the European Union super-power.

Tax off most heating begins in September

According to the finance minister today, the provincial tax off heat comes into effect for consumers of heating and stove oils, propane and wood beginning in September. The tax comes off electricity in October, and it’s all compliments of the 55,000 consumers in this province who asked for the removal of the tax off heat in a petition that was presented to the government of the day on March 28, 2001, and again through the efforts of Lorraine Michael of the New Democrats in the House of Assembly as well. The measure was taken up by the present administration after undue pressure from the people of the province to have it included in the budget of April, 2011.

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Twitter: @GeorgeMurphyNDP

Market recovery hits refined commodities

No doubt about it now, but the recovery of the markets from last week's tilt are going to come back on consumers again.

Here's what I have so far, six days out of seven reporting:

• Heating and stove oils are up by 61/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel is up by 6/10ths and,...
• Gasoline shows an added 2.7 cents a litre upwards.

I was so looking forward to some stability when the markets drew back last week, but I guess such is not the case.

A drop in the Canuck Buck against the US dollar didn't help the situation.

I'll be back tomorrow night with the final numbers.

George