Price changes for Thursday, February 26, 2015

Updated numbers for Thursday, February 26th price changes:

Heating and stove oils to add 4.08 cents a litre.
Diesel fuel to add 6.4 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline to add 1.4 cents a litre.

If there's any good news out of this, it's that after today's trading, we should be back at seeing a drop in prices to diesel and heating oils next week. Spot prices returned today to "pre-runup" levels. They retreated today by about 25 cents a US gallon. I guess the speculators decided to get out before the latest word on inventories building tomorrow.

If you have enough to go it until next week, then you might want to hold off until then. You're also a little better off if you got the phone-call in before the price is due to increase midnight tomorrow.

The Canadian dollar mostly held steady as compared to the previous session. Last week also saw the total rig count remain mostly steady, which leads me to believe that smaller producers are seeing a flattening out of prices and are getting set to "explore" again. I'll keep watching that one.

Anyway, word is to hold off again for another week if you can at all do it to see what happens with the "retreat" next week.

Pass the word!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, February 19, 2015

Final numbers are in for this week, and yes, increases across the board again.
Here's what I have:

Heating and stove oils show an added 3.49 cents a litre.
Diesel shows up by 4.4 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows another increase, by 2.6 cents a litre.

Libyan production is almost shut in again with revolution there the order of the day. That's helped increase Brent crude prices almost $7 US a barrel this week alone, and since the last price setting.
West Texas Intermediate prices are up as well, this time by $4 US as rigs come off-line from the fracking fields. There's been a steady drop in drilling over the past couple of weeks. However, keep in mind that a lot of these wells have already been drilled and are producing, so, I would expect to see continued building of overall US domestic production.

What has helped increase oil prices are some worldwide disruptions in production, in particular Libya, but also some drop in OPEC production, but only slightly. I'll have a look at the latest US inventory reports either tomorrow or Thursday when they are next published.

Keep an eye to the oil markets tomorrow (Wednesday) and see if traders are also thinking of the possibility of the US reporting further inventory building this last week!

A last point: It seems US producers are going to have another problem. Simple really, but it seems that they're actually starting to run out of room to put their oil once they get it out of the ground. It's a problem that most OPEC countries have had in a while. OPEC producers reportedly have close on 130 million barrels in "floating storage" right now. The US projection is for them to have all available storage space to be taken up as of the end of June.

We're not quite out of the woods with oil prices yet...

That's it for now!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, February 12, 2015

Hi to all,

Numbers are in for this Thursday's price changes. Here's what I have:

Heating and stove oils are up by four cents a litre.
Diesel prices to increase by 4.5 cents, and...
Gasoline shows an increase of 2.6 cents at the pumps.

Slightly off from what was predicted for gasoline last week, but all up just the same. Keep in mind as well that the numbers for both heating oil and Diesel may be off somewhat due to the winter blending mix…

 

Oil trading up all this week didn't help the situation any as the Canadian dollar lost most gains from earlier this session. Right back to where we were last week. In the meantime, over the past week, Brent crude gained about $4 US before a slight retreat today.

Most of today's drop in oil prices is directly concerned with speculators thinking that there are still worries over "over-supply" in the markets. They're anticipating that the US inventory reports out of the Energy Information Administration will show builds in overall crude oil inventory. Hopefully, gains in inventory will also be made to refined products as well to "head off" the latest increases in heating and other fuel prices next week!

That report will be out around noon our time on Wednesday. I’ll tweet the numbers they find later tomorrow, so you might want to follow me there...

That’s it for now,

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for this week. Projections for next!

Hi to all,

Final numbers for this week's price changes are in, but I also have projected increases for next week that I'm watching. What I have done here is give you this week's increase, but on the same line, give you what I think will happen with prices for next week as well. You'll find that number at the tail end of each fuel price change I give you and in (parentheses).


Here's what I have:

Heating and stove oils show an increase of 2.45 cents a litre. (4.46c/Lt for next week projection)
Diesel shows an added 3.3 cents a litre. (5.1 cents next week)
Gasoline shows an increase of 4.5 cents a litre. (4.6 cents for next week)

These numbers I have projected for next week's price changes are based simply on the difference I have between my spot average for this week, and the spot price at market close for today. If nothing changes in the markets with refined prices from today, then these numbers should run close to what will actually happen next week.

Again, feel free to pass this around to everyone on your friends lists. Keep in mind the winter blending of diesel and heating oils. Those numbers may be off somewhat.

A strike by some US refinery workers has taken some 10 percent of refining capacity offline. That may be part reason why refined commodity prices have experienced the run-up that they have. Add to that, the effect of a lower Canadian dollar against it's US cousin, and we have the recipe for a rapid increase to Canadian consumer prices.

Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude have increased roughly $9 US a barrel over the last regulation period of seven days.

See you at the pumps!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, January 29, 2015

Hi to all,

It's been a rough couple of weeks, but I hope it's coming back to some form of normalcy now! It’s true what they say here in the province about coming in three’s too.

Here's what I have for price changes this week, all compliments of the Bank of Canada with its surprise change of rates that kicked the crap out of the Canadian dollar this past week:

Heating and stove oils show an increase of 1.22 cents a litre.
Diesel shows an added 1.7 cents a litre to come, and...
Gasoline shows an added 1.5 cents a litre at the pumps.

Keep in mind the winter blending of heating and diesel fuels that may throw off those numbers a little!
With the Bank of Canada's drop of interest rates last week, the Canadian dollar lost a full four cents against the US greenback. That cost Canadian consumers a rough 1.5 cents a litre at the pumps for all fuels I measure. The fact that this was a surprise move by the bank did not go by un-noticed, and the markets soon reacted. While it may make some of our exports a little cheaper, especially for raw resources, it also makes anything from outside the country, or based on outside pricing, susceptible to a change in prices. In this case, with fuels and oil being priced in the US, it's going to cost you a little more to buy them.
Hence, price increases to commodities like gas and heating oils.

By the way, did you happen to notice?...
While Costco still sold gasoline at a rough 87 cents a litre this past week, others like Irving and Ultramar in the St. John's northeast area only dropped prices in the area by the slimmest of margins. All retailers of fuel products in the province by the way, were recipients of a new allowable margin as set by the Public Utilities Board last week. New margins now sit at an "allowable" of close to 18.5 cents on any litre of fuel, rather than the previous 14.8 cents.

I'll be looking at that "allowable" process in the coming weeks to see if we can combat that, or at least have a fair shot at any hearing process that allowed this to happen!

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

 

Price changes for Thursday, January 8, 2015

Hi to all,

Sorry these numbers are coming so late, but it has been a necessarily busy day to say the least!

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils to drop by 2.55 cents a litre.
Diesel to drop by 4.3 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline to drop another 3.4 cents a litre.

Jet fuel continues to lose altitude, but still no word from the airlines about a break to airfares and surcharges. Jet fuel has dropped again from a June high of 86 cents to today's 52.4 cents.

I'm going to keep it short and sweet this time around as it has been a very long day, but feel free to pass this note around!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Numbers for Thursday, January 1, 2015. Numbers in Effect Midnight tonight!

Well, a Happy New Year to everyone in advance!

Looks like the PUB has allowed all petroleum suppliers to put price adjustments in place again as a result of the New Years holidays. Prices will be adjusted at midnight tonight as a result.

Here's what I have anyway, keeping in mind market volatility as well as winter blending that may affect diesel as well as heating oil pricing:

Heating and stove oils to drop by 1.2 cents a litre.
Diesel to drop by two cents even, and...
Gasoline to drop by 1.1 cents a litre from the regulated maximum.

#6 oil for electrical generation is now selling for $44.75 US a barrel, down from $97US in June.
Jet fuel now selling at 56.7 cents a litre, down from 86 cents a litre in June.

Brent crude continues to get pounded out there on the markets in the face of growing supplies. Last week saw US crude inventories increase by over seven million barrels and both gasoline and distillate inventories also up right along with it. The more supply, the less refined products are going to sell for. Here's hoping that the Canadian dollar rises just a little to give some of these prices a deeper swipe!

That's it for now!

Feel free to pass this around in spite of the short notice.

Regards and Happy New Year!

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Numbers for Thursday, December 25, 2014

Happy Tibb's Eve!...

I used to name it after the old oil delivery company that used to be up off Wishingwell Road! Go figure, coming from me!

Here's what I have for this week's price changes. All numbers in:

Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.45 cents a litre.
Diesel shows down by an even two cents a litre, and..
Gasoline shows just a modest 6/10ths of a cent a litre drop.

Still some volatility in the numbers as the markets try to settle things out with oil prices. Don't forget the winter blending in heating and diesel numbers that may throw them off some!

Things appear at first glance to have bottomed out in the markets for now. All will now depend on consumption and the next inventory reports out of the US. With an improving economic situation stateside, look for a slight increase in oil prices, but not enough right away to bring prices in the immediate St. John's northeast area over that magical "buck a litre" scenario we've been looking at. At least, not right away!

Also, I'm not sure when they will bring in this next round of price changes. Holidays are falling in with Christmas Day and New Year's next week, so, I'm not sure when they will allow pricing changes this next two weeks.

Merry Christmas everyone!..and the "warmest" of holiday wishes!

Regards,

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA 

Numbers for Thursday, December 18, 2014

Well, the numbers are in for Thursday.

Here's what I have, along with a few more to note. Don't forget winter blending that may throw off diesel and heating oil numbers, and don't forget HUGE volatility may be in the numbers from heavy market activity!:

Heating and stove oils are showing a drop of 1.75 cents a litre
Diesel shows a drop of 1.2 cents a litre.
Gasoline shows a drop of six cents a litre.

This time next week should see a gas price in the high eighties in the St. John's northeast region. Enjoy!...But conserve!

Jet fuel now shows an even sixty cents a litre. On June 27th that number was 86 cents a litre. To all of you, it is really time to get upset over the fact that the airlines are still maxing out on air fuel surcharges to airline customers. It's really time they give back!

#6 fuel oil for electrical generation is also down to $47.75 a US barrel. It was pricing in at $96 US in June. That means that the rate adjustment formula should bring some drop to electricity prices here in Newfoundland and Labrador. If you don't live here, you should also see some sort of break, if you use that type of generation in the grid!

The Saudi's are having a little more competition from a fellow OPEC member, Iran. With concerns over the loss of market share, the Iranians are competing for Asian customers as they try to retain their own markets. If that keep up, look for other oil-producing nations to "join in" and drop prices to their customers.

Finally, the Canadian dollar continues to take a beating at the loss of the price of oil. We've lost almost a cent and a half against the US greenback over the last week!

That's it for now!

Regards,

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, December 11, 2014

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils show a drop of 3 cents a litre.
Diesel shows a drop of 4.1 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 5.6 cents a litre.

Keep in mind that these numbers are off the regulated maximum. St. John's East could be looking at under a buck a litre by Monday/Tuesday of this drop comes into effect.

I was off last week on the gas numbers, the most in months, however, I believe I wasn't really that far off as Halifax prices dropped steeply last week by better than six cents a litre. They're measured just a day apart from us here. I think the gasoline number should be a little closer this time around, but don't forget that there's still a very volatile market out there, and of course, we're still dealing with the winter heating and Diesel blends!

Oil starting to flatten?
The Asian countries are the beneficiaries of some pretty good deals on oil as Saudi Arabia is still competing with US producers. Seems as though the challenge is on and we're starting to see some US companies starting to park their plans to frack for more oil in 2015. We may be witnessing a flattening of oil output from the US, and hence, a slowdown in drops to prices, and perhaps some stability to oil and refined product.
We'll see what happens in the markets, but the last measure I had of oil producing rigs and drilling projects still didn't make it apparent that drilling was stopping. Question is, are the Saudi's ready to keep prices steady?

I'll keep an eye out.

Airline fuel surcharges should come down
In the meantime, airline customers should be asking their respective carriers why they haven't returned some savings back to customers. Jet fuel prices have also retreated sharply, with jet fuel at 86 cents a litre Canadian in June to today's 64 cents a litre. It would be a nice travel season discount to regular flyers who have been paying a fortune in airline fuel surcharges as of late. That's close to 25 percent less than what it was in June month.

That's it for now!

Regards and safe travels!

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Thursday, December 4th, 2014 Price changes

Hi to everyone,

Sorry I didn't get these numbers posted sooner, but work has to take precedent. Nevertheless, keep in mind that there's lots of volatility in the markets, so they're going to be off somewhat. And don't forget winter blending on the heating and diesel numbers!

Here's what I have:

Heating and stove oils to drop by 4.23 cents a litre.
Diesel shows a drop of 4.6 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 4.2 cents a litre.

The Canadian dollar remained relatively steady against the US dollar. In the markets, while China began buying some oil off the markets to help lift oil prices yesterday, they didn't sustain in the eyes of the speculators. With ever-growing US domestic production, OPEC faces the bold new world reality that they're facing something that they've never had to face before, that of competition.

Maybe now some parts of this world might be able to compete and grow their economies with cheaper energy. The fact remains however, that we can't forget high prices as they were. Have we learned the lessons of the folly of remaining oil dependent to supply ourselves with the means to drive our economies or our homes? Will the world turn its backs to retrofitting and other energy alternatives as viable options in a world that is oil-hungry?

Don't let our governments forget the hard lessons that so many had paid for as energy prices come down more.

We can't be held "over a barrel" again!

Regards,

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Numbers for Thursday, November 27, 2014

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.27 cents a litre.
Diesel shows down by 1.5 cents, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of just 6/10ths of a cent a litre.

Keep in mind that there's a lot of volatility out there and that the winter blend is in for heating and Diesel numbers. They may be off somewhat.

The Canadian dollar actually gained about a half penny against the US dollar the last week. And with spot prices for all fuels measured showing hardly any change, that was the difference.

However, today, while the dollar gained slightly, we also saw the start of another move downwards for oil. It could be the start of what some are predicting as a move down to $60 US a barrel for West Texas Intermediate.

In the meantime, OPEC meets on Thursday. My feeling is that they have no choice but to put a symbolic cut to production in place. If they drop production, they risk losing important customers for their oil amid growing American US domestic production now pegged at 9.1 million barrels a day.

Watch the business news on Thursday for what OPEC does. I'm still sticking to a cut of 500,000 barrels a day by OPEC.

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Numbers for Thursday, November 20, 2014

Hi to all,

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils projected to drop by 2.96 cents a litre.
Diesel shows a drop of 1.9 cents a litre on the way, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of 2.4 cents a litre.

For the previous two weeks, I have been out a little, especially last week with my numbers down while an increase came into effect. I'll blame it on volatility out there. While it was down two weeks ago, it was down much further than expected, and I'm thinking the difference added up to an increase for last week instead
.
But it looks like things will be back on track for this week again.

US domestic production of crude oil continues to set records, with the numbers amounting to nearly 9.1 million barrels a day being pumped out of the ground in the US. That's offsetting any possible cut that OPEC may be thinking. We'll find out later on the 27th if OPEC will institute any cuts, but with US domestic rising, it's not likely they will at the risk of losing market share.

At least that's the talk out of the Middle East.

I'm thinking that OPEC will make a move, but not a substantial one. I think right now they'd all be happy just to stop the fall of oil and offset any US domestic production that may come on line to add to the world glut.

George is guessing OPEC will cut by 500,000 barrels a day to try to stop the slide.

Any takers?...

We'll see what happens!

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Numbers for Thursday, November 13, 2014

Hi to all,

Hope everyone had a great Remembrance Day and that you all got out to our respective communities to help remember the sacrifice others made for us...

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils to drop by just 1/10th of a cent.
Diesel prices to increase by 4/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
Gasoline to drop by 7/10ths of a cent a litre.

Keep in mind that my heating and Diesel numbers may be off somewhat as a result of winter fuel blending!

OPEC meets November 27^th in Vienna
Surely we'd all like to be a bug on the wall at the next meeting of OPEC on November 27th when they discuss the possibilities of making production cuts to try and support the price of oil.

I know I would!

OPEC members Saudi Arabia and Iraq aren't all that fussy about making production cuts it seems, and it's doubtful if OPEC as a group would institute such a measure that would bring trouble for some of the member nations. Just think about Venezuela having to take a share of the cut with that country already facing a heavy debt and running close to a 60% inflation rate! With US domestic producers pounding out product and looking to export, it may be a new reality for OPEC that they'd be looking at market competition. According to what I'm hearing, they may take the new price of oil as the new normal for the oil markets as a result. Funny as it seems, but OPEC might not be able to compete for a long time to come.

Lower oil good for North Atlantic Refining
Here? It has to be good for our local refiner North Atlantic! One of the largest problems they had to deal with was the rising price of crude. Now that oil is a little cheaper for them, it helps the survivability of the refinery. Gas is cheaper than what it was a short time ago and crude acquisition costs are down as well.

That means jobs on an improved bottom line.

By the way. Brent closed at $80.35 US today.

That's it for now!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Price changes for Thursday, November 6th, 2014

Hi to everyone,

Here's what I have for price changes this week. Keep in mind that my heating oil and Diesel numbers may be off somewhat as a result of winter blending!

In the meantime, not too much in changes this week, namely be cause of the poor performance of the Canadian dollar against the US greenback. Our "beloved" loonie lost a good 2.6 cents against the US buck in the last six days and that's accounting for a lot.

Heating and stove oils show an increase of 55/100ths of a cent a litre.
Diesel shows an added 1.3 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline shows a drop of just 9/10ths of a cent a litre.

An important note here with the numbers.
While there's not much of a drop to be shown with distillate prices, it's important to remember that we are in the winter demand season. In spite of lower oil, there has been limited impacts on both heating oil and diesel prices. Draws on US inventory aren't helping the matter.

Gasoline a little different as demand remains flat, even with lower prices. refiner capacity is a full seven percent below the normal due to refiners switching from gasoline refinement to distillates. When production resumes, this should add to inventories and bring prices down further.

In the meantime, I'm looking with interest at tomorrow's inventory report from the EIA, sometime around noon release on that.

Lastly, on gasoline.

Spot prices reflect the start of what may come next week. While they averaged about 67 cents this last session, today ended off about 65 cents. If that keeps going like it is, look for about another two cents "guess-timate" for next week to come.

I think the Saudi's are beginning to go for broke with the discounts on oil they're offering their US customers. The advent of huge growth in US domestic production is finally putting the pressure on OPEC pricing and the Saudi's are forced to discount to maintain their market share. Mind you, we're seeing the benefits of that and also witnessing some dissent amongst other OPEC producers who think that Saudi Arabia alone should be forced to take the majority of any production cut, should OPEC implement a cut on November 27th.

I won't overload you all with what I'm thinking is going to happen over the next few weeks. If you have any questions, drop me a note.

That's it for this week!

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA