On the rise again

Distillates expected to increase

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, March 22, 2011- If the numbers are right, consumers will be paying more for distillate type fuels this coming Thursday when the Public Utilities Board adjusts prices. That's according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

What the numbers say

"The numbers show distillate fuels will see another round of increases, while gasoline shows just a very slight drop, if anything at all." Murphy said. "I expect heating and stove oils to increase by another 77/100ths of a cent and diesel to increase by 1.3 cents a litre."

"Gasoline shows just a drop of three tenths of a cent, so if you account for my margin for error of just that same three tenths, there may be no change in gasoline prices this week, according to my numbers."

Oil faces a huge test

"Oil prices bounced back this past week, along with refined commodity prices as positive economic news and spreading unrest in North Africa and the Middle East continues to carry weight on traders in the marketplace. Oil prices also increased with optimism of a recovery of the Japanese economy after the earthquake and tsunami in the northeast of the country."

"Continuing concern on the part of consumers also will play into oil prices over the next little while as anger builds with oil's connection to higher consumer prices for other goods and services. People are genuinely angry over the fact that food prices have increased, particularly in the US, part and parcel with rising refined commodity prices. It's my belief that consumers will soon let their feelings known by curtailing spending because of a lack of disposable income, that's if they haven't already done so. Reports from the US already show a sudden drop in existing home sales that may be related to the possible downturn in consumer spending in the US."

"Consumers are watching their money disappear down the fill-pipe."

"Because of this, oil will have trouble seeing a continued climb in price in the long term. People are starting to make the choice between going out to a movie or staying home. Oil prices are simply not sustainable and the economy is being put on notice with signs of a slowdown in spending. I'd say that oil is simply just not sustainable at this level without having repercussions to the economy or to consumers. My guess is that the consumer is going to say 'no' shortly."

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

After six days

Just for your information, and in spite of oil being back up around the $103 US a barrel mark again, the numbers aren't too bad. Here's what I have after six days of business:

• Heating and stove oils show an added 7/10ths of a cent.
• Diesel shows up by 1.3 cents a litre, and...
• Gasoline is down by a half cent.

Two things...

First, just a reminder that I cannot account for a lot of market volatility that comes from erratic performance of the markets, and there has been volatility these past couple of weeks!

Secondly, a reminder that when i quote my furnace oil numbers for the winter, they are just an indicator of the direction that furnace oil may go. It's solid for stove oil, but the winter blend of furnace oil here in Newfoundland and Labrador also includes a mix of kerosene as an anti-freeze agent, and I have no way to track kerosene to find out the proper numbers.

I'll be back tomorrow night with the final shot on what to expect for this week.

George

Government, we have a problem

I've been thinking again...

"Dangerous", the wife says...

"No, really", I say. "Think about it for a minute. I want to bounce a thought on you."

"Ok, if you must insist, and I don't get hurt." She's been victimized by my thinking before, and she's been a good victim about it. She knows the whole oil thing is on my mind again and it's inevitable it'll come up again in the house here, so I start talking.

"It's different this time," I'm thinking. "I haven't seen prices hang high like this without repercussions and it looks like oil's up to stay, and it worries me. We're back to a point where someone wants oil prices to stay up, and it's going to hurt a lot of people."

I'm rambling my thoughts again, but she's intent on letting me get to my point, so I go on.

"Prices are climbing too fast, to a point that even things touched by rising oil prices are getting unaffordable. Besides getting expensive to heat the house, it's getting costly to buy food. Are we in a new age of energy starvation, to the point that we're going to have to start getting serious about our spending for food? Don't get me wrong now! We're OK for now, but what if prices keep climbing? Are we ready for 'new age pricing'?"

I can't help but wonder...

I go on...

"So, oil prices are up and we're dealing with new problems. We have seniors and those on fixed pensions experiencing energy starvation and now we have people out there who are watching more of their power of purchase evaporate. We're getting less for more and we're not going to see oil prices drop for a long time yet, especially if the Middle East and North Africa keep playing a role in the markets. Here we are with people on fixed pensions and an artificial absorption of the inflation rate because we're seeing packages of goods getting smaller without prices going up. Then we hear the likes of Gaelan Weston say that prices across the board are going up by ten per cent because of rising fuel costs. I just get the feeling that the consumer is losing control."

"You're the one losing it." She says.

It's not the first time that I've rambled on with energy in mind, and deep down, she knows I'm right. Just the other day, I dropped into a store while out in the taxi. I'm looking at getting some change and the owner, Dwight tells me "They done it again! The package of Lay's over there? Another fifteen grams smaller and for the same price!" He screams.

"I can't wait to see what'll happen if they screw with the size of a milk carton."

It's bracket creep without the brackets. We're slowly getting squeezed by them without us noticing. We're getting pinched without the pain, and even if oil prices retreat, we're not going to see us get back the thing we're losing now with rising food prices: quantity.

"But the government is just as responsible for having to give back some of what is ours, is it not? With rising royalties, shouldn't we be demanding more of what they're collecting? Shouldn't we be getting our fair share? Where's the investment that will be necessary for the future if heating costs are going to go through the roof like they have been, and will be? Somethings fixed alright, and it's not pensions! They're leaving some people broke!"

I'm pensive again. There's a lot more happening out there than most realize, and this may be just the tip of the iceberg.

The future promises more of the same "household energy deficit", and it worries me.

Numbers are down

but for the wrong reasons

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, March 15, 2011- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will experience something that they haven't seen in weeks when the PUB adjusts prices this Thursday. Lower prices. That word is from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

"The numbers are all starting downward, and we're going to see a slight break at the pumps, but for all the wrong reasons, " said Murphy. "The situation immediately after the earthquake in Japan has the world monetary markets fearful over any economic recovery, especially after the impact the quake has had on Japan.

"I expect the real breaks to come next week, if this trend keeps up. Refined commodity prices began to be impacted by the Japan events today, and they signal a slight break to come for this Thursday. My numbers show heating and stove oils to drop by 72/100ths of a cent, diesel to drop by 7/10ths of a cent, and gasoline to drop by 1.4 cents a litre.

"Other areas of the country will see immediate effects of lower cash petroleum numbers. US consumers will see a drop of close on 16.2 US cents a gallon when they wake up tomorrow morning, welcome news for them as some areas have broken the four dollar a gallon mark.

"Here in Newfoundland and Labrador, if these numbers hold up, we could be looking at another drop of close on four to five cents a litre off gasoline, provided the situation in the markets remains as fluid as it is right now,. But anything could happen as regards to world events to change things again to send prices up. We still have the situation with unrest in the Middle East and North Africa as well as the European Union financial situation with some of its members that has yet to play out fully. While this small break was predicted a week ago, the drop in price was not supposed to be because a lot of people died in an earthquake-tsunami scenario.

"The situation in Japan has suddenly put pricing uncertainty back into markets that were already uneasy over the Middle East and North Africa. Over one million barrels a day refinery capacity has also been shut in where consumers there use almost 4.2 million barrels a day and already there are long lines for people looking for supplies. The economics of Japan's 'non-use' of crude oil at this point has put extra oil on the markets all of a sudden with faltering demand as well.

"Either way, numbers will be down, but I think we're all praying for Japan to recover from this one instead."

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Six days in...

Here's what I have for this next regulatory session, six days reporting out of the seven needed.

• Heating, stove and diesel all show down by a half cent a litre.
• Gasoline is down by 7/10ths of a cent.

Not a big lot, but the numbers are down, and will probably be this way to finish the session tomorrow night.

While I predicted some very slight relief last week, I didn't expect that the disaster in Japan would be the reason why it would be so, or to be at least part of the reason why oil prices and its related refined commodities would perform.

My reasoning was simple really: that the "speculator industry" would go for a "take" and draw some profits from oil's run-up, giving consumers a small reprieve.

I'll be back tomorrow night with the last day of data and the best guess for the Thursday price change.

Regards,

George

As predicted last week, there will be another increase in pricing for this Thursday.

Middle East and Libya Continue to play a role on the numbers

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, March 07, 2011- After this weeks market activity, the numbers are there to show another round of increases is on the way for Newfoundland and Labrador consumers. That's according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

"Numbers were all high again for the last week, but they also showed some sign of retreat with refined commodity prices," said Murphy."The last business day of this session was showing down from my weekly average, and that, I hope, is a sign of possible retreat for next week. All that might change however, with trouble brewing in Saudi Arabia and Iran."

"I expect heating and stove oils to increase by 2.58 cents, diesel to increase by 3.1 cents a litre, and gasoline to increase by 3.2 cents a litre.

Day of rage

"All now depends on the round of protests in Saudi Arabia, labeled by various groups as the "Day of Rage" in the country. Those protests have been planned for both March 11th and again on March 20th. If those protests fail in disrupting oil output or fail to cause any kind of a supply disruption, then we should see some sort of a retreat in prices that should happen quickly. If they do succeed, then the floodgates will be open to more increases in prices of petroleum product to consumers.

"It's not about money anymore to some of the protest groups in the Middle East or North Africa. People are demanding real reforms to happen. Barring that, they have been thwarted in attempts at political reforms, some groups getting small investments in job creation and housing in Saudi Arabia for example, and they have turned towards revolutionary stands against their old time leadership. Whatever political stripe the various groups represented before has been put on the back-burner. They have united under the one cause of making real change in their countries. It is all very interesting to watch."

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy
Group researcher/Member
Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Update

Market sell-off at hand?

The "six day" is in.

With one day of data to come sometime tomorrow night, there's enough here to say that we're definitely going to take a hit here Thursday, all at the past weeks peril in North Africa and the Middle East.

Here's what I have so far:

• Heating and stove oils show 2.88 cents a litre up.
• Diesel shows 3.4 cents a litre up, and...
• Gasoline now shows 3.5 cents a litre up.

Today's trading was "different". A quick look at the numbers was the normal for the end of today, but it was at the same time "weird", to say the least. It was very hard to describe what I felt looking at those numbers, but let me try to describe what I felt.

The TSX was down somewhat, while oil prices were up. And with oil up, the Canadian dollar still slipped a little, and that was a noticeable slip under that guise, at least for me. The tendency is for the dollar to rise hand in hand with rising oil prices, but not today.

You could smell some trouble in the TSX being down. It's like someone was suddenly paying attention to all the "hype" over rising prices, and starting a revolt of their own, all at the traders expense. To me, just a small warning, or a shot across the bow of whoever is ignoring the possible recession message in higher oil prices.

All you could hear this past weekend was talk about holding on to what one had, and the supposed end of any economic recovery, if there was one to begin with.

Did the markets get the message about the crap investors are getting on with over Libya and Saudi Arabia and the possibility of $200 US a barrel oil??

I don't know. I just get the feeling though, that people are getting a little tired of getting screwed by the markets, let alone at the pumps, and not having the power to do anything about it. With that sentiment also comes the feeling that $200 US a barrel is just not in the cards for anyone no matter what happens in the Middle East. Maybe today's trading session was a warning that even oil prices are tenuous, and could drop out any second.

The rest of the week is going to be very interesting to watch indeed!

I'll be back tomorrow night with the final numbers.

Regards,

George

After five days, it doesn't look good

Hi to all...
The "five day" is in, and the news isn't good...Again!

Here's what I have after last night's electronic trading:

• Heating and stove oils are up by 2.9 cents a litre.
• Diesel prices show "up" by 3.4 cents, and...
• Gasoline is up by 3.7 cents a litre.

As of 9:00 A.M Newfoundland time, crude oil (WTI) was trading two bucks a barrel up at $106.42 with the unrest in Libya shutting in production still further amid continuing worries of further disruptions in the Middle east and North Africa.

How do you stop it?

I don't know, but I'm getting sick and tired of having to pay for it.

I'll be back tonight with an update on the numbers for today's trading.

George

Heating oil prices hit second highest price ever

Consumers to take a substantial hit this Thursday

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, March 01, 2011- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will get a severe shock when the Public Utilities Board adjusts fuel prices this coming Thursday. That's according to George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

What the numbers say

"As predicted last week, the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa are going to start to cost consumers and business severely for the long term, it appears. I have heating and stove oils to increase by 5.14 cents per litre and diesel to increase by 5.7 cents a litre," said Murphy.

"Gasoline prices are expected to increase by 5.3 cents per litre. All fuel prices will be adjusted to reflect the last week of market conditions this Thursday, and it's been a rough week."

Consumers will feel a bigger bite

"Consumers should expect to see elevated costs for foodstuff and, no doubt will be hearing of the potential for a hike in electricity rates as oil prices are expected to remain elevated for some time as there remains a heavy threat to supply of oil product to the world markets, especially from supply disruptions in Iran and Saudi Arabia. As I discovered about two weeks ago, there is a threat of supply disruptions coming out of OPEC's largest producer, Saudi Arabia, all geared to occur either March 11th or March 20th coming. If that occurs, then we have only seen the tip of the iceberg with prices. They'll have no where to go but up.

"Again, the consumer and business have to ask our government, if we, as a country, should be leaving ourselves open to world pricing pressures like this when this country is a net producer of oil, but exports the majority of it rather than keep it for domestic purposes. This will not be the last time consumers will see the effects of high energy pricing. We are already hearing that fuel surcharges are being instituted, or increased by the trucking companies and airlines. It's a matter of time before the airlines do the same thing, or Marine Atlantic also responds in kind leaving the consumer open to a higher rate of inflation than areas of the country not dependent on heavy transportation costs."

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Ensuring political stability
Taking the pressure off food prices

With all the worries over oil supply the last couple of weeks, and no sign of abatement in the changing world geo-political situation forthcoming, the one big question that is being asked is 'How did it all start?'

The answer is simple really: Food prices.

Back in the initial run-up to record high oil prices during 2008, and again this year with increasing oil prices almost seeming the norm, some important food stuffs started to be spied as viable alternatives to the rising price of oil. Some of those important foods stuffs like wheat and corn were also seen as valuable additions to the petrochemical industry in their alternate form of ethanol. You just didn't have to sell your crop for food anymore. You could sell it to someone who would squeeze the cellulose fibre out if it, let it ferment, and make ethanol out of the mix.

The farmer thus became an important component in the petrochemical industry and the price for his, or her crop, went up.

With a huge demand for ethanol that is derived from wheat and corn, along with other fibrous foods, it could not be avoided on the part of farmers worldwide to sell their crops to the highest bidders after watching prices far outstrip what consumers were paying for basic consumption use. Rioting started when people went hungry and food became unaffordable.

No longer was wheat used for the basics like cereals and bread, it had now become of value in the petrochemical industry, filling a gargantuan hole in the additives and oxygenate markets. Human need was competing with Big Oil, and losing.

How do we fix the problem?

The other option
While attention has been given to high yield from various fibre crops like corn and wheat, very little attention has been paid to finding other viable forms of cellulose fibre.

With the forestry industries of Europe and North America at a standstill, and the age of the paper mill hanging in the balance, governments everywhere have yet to turn their eyes to the other renewable resources out there that can help provide that viable alternative fibre source to help in the manufacture of ethanol's close cousin, methanol. For North America and its displaced forestry industry, that answer may very well lie in the manufacture of methanol as the alternative oxygenate for the oil industry.

At the same time as putting people to work, the development of methanol can help take the pressure off wheat and corn prices, while at the same time, feeding the wolds hungry and helping fulfill the needs of the oil industry and environmentalists for cleaner burning fuels.

Perhaps it's both time for governments everywhere to look at the alternatives to ethanol use and, at the same time, ensure that food comes to those who need it most at the most affordable of prices.

Manufactured right here?
Newfoundland and Labrador can play an important role in the development of the methanol industry. With a paper mill closed and one in trouble, there is no doubt that there is a need to find an alternate use for mill fibre besides the traditional paper making role. Cellulose fibre from wood can be used in an experiment to study the viability of methanol manufacture from our Canadian wood sources. If the theory of making methanol from wood fibre is successful, we sit close to world routes for the export of the alternate oxygenate and we put people to work. In some small way, we contribute to feeding the world's hunger problem at the same time as satisfying the need of the petrochemical industry's need for a new oxygenate to ensure a cleaner burning fuel.

Perhaps it's time we ask the government to make use of the Brookfield Road forestry and agriculture facility and look at helping the world solve a problem that may be readily overcome.

Numbers
Here's what I have with six days out of seven reporting:

• Heating and stove oils show "up" by 4.88 cents per litre.
• Diesel is up by 5.4 cents per litre, and...
• Gasoline is up by 4.9 cents.

I'll be back tonight with final numbers for Thursday!

Regards,

George

Didn't last long at all

That retreat?

Stopped when prices fell back about three tenths of a cent...

Faint hope, to say the least!

With weekend electronic trading almost done, numbers are still showing increases to all fuels across the board coming for this Thursday. Here's what I have, so, you might want to pass the word around to everyone:

• Heating and stove oils show an increase of 4.89 cents per litre.
• Diesel shows an added 5.4 cents, and ...
• Gasoline shows an added five cents per litre for this Thursday coming.

I'll be back again, no doubt!

George

Oil retreats, but for how long?

Why do I ask?

Check out the link, It may be nothing at all, or it could be everything that is to come, and everything the markets fear.

But, for today, just a little relief for what's coming to consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador next week. Today's slight retreat didn't do much to erase the possibility of increases.

Here's the data with two days of activity:

• Heating and stove oils are up by 4.58 cents per litre.
• Diesel is showing "up" by 5.1 cents, and...
• Gasoline is also "up" by 5.1 cents per litre.

I'll be back again with another update sometime late tomorrow night, or early Saturday morning.

Regards,

George

Early numerical data in

Hi to all...

This is just an early indication of what we can expect NEXT Thursday with all the Middle East and North Africa unrest.

After ONE DAY of data, here's what I have as potentially in store for consumers for NEXT Thursday:

• Heating and stove oils show an added 5.2 cents a litre.
• Diesel shows an added six cents even, and...
• Gasoline shows an added 5.5 cents a litre.

I would suggest a fill-up of the home heating oil tanks is now in store as the world oil/political situation will only get worse on the markets before then.

I'll keep everyone up to date on how the numbers are working out, but, right now, the word to the consumer for next Thursday is "not good".

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Consumers to notice price changes

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, February 22, 2010- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will start to feel the effects of market turmoil as Middle East unrest again plays out , this time from Libya. That comes from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

"While this weeks numbers don't look substantial, they will really start to take a movement upwards on all fuels starting next week as the Libya situation only started to take shape in the markets as of today's on-floor trading", said Murphy. "I fully expect to see consumers to take another hit next week as numbers are already starting upwards for the next regulatory session."

"This week, I expect heating and stove oils to show just a mere 3/100ths of a cent upwards movement, diesel to show a 8/10ths of a cent upwards move, and gasoline to show a 1.7 cent a litre movement upwards. However, the markets already show upwards movements for all four fuels by close on two cents a litre that I do measure for next week, all as a result of the Middle East unrest, and what role it's going to play in the oil markets."

"While the turmoil in the Middle east continues in Libya, it could easily spread to other oil producing nations, or OPEC members in the region and could further compound the oil market problem. While the Saudis may be able to handle a production or supply disruption problem with the four million barrels spare capacity that country has, it cannot handle similar problems if the unrest were to spread to Iran, which is said to be on the edge of further Middle East instability. That, in effect, would be saying 'force majeure' and then the sky would be the limit to oil prices and to prices for refined commodities. The only thing that may save us, or insulate us somewhat, is a high Canadian dollar, and even that may not save us if economies collapse as a result of high energy pricing."

"We're keeping a sharp eye on the Middle East situation as it progresses."

-30-

For more information, contact:

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

International news might bite consumers

Just a note to let everyone know that I am watching the situation in Libya play itself out on the international markets the last couple of days. It's not the best news economically, but should prove to be a wake-up call to everyone dependent on Middle East crude supplies, including Canada.

First, the numbers...

Here's what I have so far, keeping in mind that the markets were closed and I have no data for today, except the above futures prices that would "add' another possible 2.6 to gasoline numbers, and the same to the heating, stove and diesel numbers. I'll leave it to one's imagination what the cash numbers would be as a result of today's news.

Either way, the numbers are up.

• Heating and stove oils show an added 17/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel shows an added 6/10ths of a cent, and...
• Gasoline shows up by 1.4 cents a litre so far.

In the news

So far, crude oil (WTI) has been affected by events overseas, all in spite of the markets being closed for the Presidents Day holiday in the US. Electronic trading has seen WTI settle at $92.75 US a barrel, an increase of $6.55 a barrel US. crude oil has not been this high since September, 2008.

Heating oils and gasoline are also well up in trading, up by 11 and ten cents a US gallon respectively.

No doubt, consumers will be hit with increases in price across the board this week as supply disruptions have a very good chance of playing out in the Libya protests. According to Bloomberg, the Nafoora Oil Company operating in Libya have already shut down operations and production because of a general strike, shutting down almost 100K of oil production.

Libya is OPEC's eighth largest producer and exporter of oil, supplying the world with 1.6 million barrels per day, or one per cent of production. That might not seem a lot, but with the possibility of disruptions occurring here with other oil companies that are now pulling international staff from Libya, we could be headed for a record week in oil pricing that could rival the Katrina hurricane event. What happens here could happen in Iran and other OPEC producing countries that could send the world back into recession again, well ahead of any economic recovery.

Warnings here for Canada

While Saudi Arabia may be able to pick up any production that would cover the losses due to disruptions of production in Libya, it does not have the spare refinery capacity to cover off any disruption in production from Iran, and that spells trouble for the rest of the world dependent on OPEC production, including Canada. This country still imports some Middle East oil, while, at the same time, being self-sufficient in oil production. While we could recover any losses in domestic consumption of oil by using our own sources of supply, the government needs to ensure that Canadian consumers and industry are covered here with sufficient domestic supplies before any further exports are allowed to other countries dependent on our resources.

Pretty simple really. Don't sign any more deals that ensures a safe supply to outside countries before you use your own resources for your own people first.

That's it for now!

I'll be back tomorrow night with a final breakdown on what to expect this Thursday.

Just keep in mind that anything could happen in the next day or two with this extraordinary situation in the Middle East.

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

First time for everything

Short, sweet and simple

Not much change in the numbers at all.
Here's what I have for this week with all seven days data now in:

• Heating and stove oils show a drop of 38/100ths of a cent.
• Diesel shows "no change". Zero movement, and...
• Gasoline shows an added 3/10ths of a cent.

In other words, the numbers are pretty much within the confines of my working margin for error and there may, in fact, be no change at all for any of the fuels I measure.

First time I've ever run into this scenario.

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Numbers remain steady

Just a quick note here. Here's what I have for my "six day". Keep in mind that I only have a "five day" for my diesel number:

• Heating and stove oils show a 42/100ths of a cent drop.
• Diesel shows a 1/10th of a cent drop, and...
• Gasoline shows an increase of 3/10ths of a cent a litre.

I'll be back again with the final numbers tomorrow night, but don't expect too many surprises. Not much change showing so far!

Regards,

George

Oil prices down

Refined commodities remain "fluid"

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, February 08, 2011- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador won't notice much change at the pumps when the PUB adjusts prices again this coming Thursday morning. That comes from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

"While oil prices have retreated by almost four bucks US a barrel, refined commodities have been volatile. I've seen all numbers retreat by several cents US a gallon, only to recover at the end of this session. We started out at $2.46.35 US for a gallon of gasoline at the start of this regulatory period, for example, only to witness a retreat in the price and then a recovery to yesterday's trading at $2.47.67 US a gallon. Overall, that means a small drop in gasoline prices to come", said Murphy.

"I think everyone knows now that refined commodities are traded no differently than anything else on the markets. Part of the price of oil may be associated with any acquisition costs, but that's about it. I have never seen this much volatility associated with refined petroleum product as what I have seen with the news the past three weeks. It's like the speculators don't know where to park their dollars."

"It's odd, really".

What consumers can expect to see Thursday

"I expect heating and stove oils to increase by just 11/100ths of a cent, diesel to increase by 8/10ths and gasoline to drop by 7/10ths of a cent. Heating and stove oils are showing 'neutral' as they are within my three tenths of a cent margin for error, just too close to zero to predict which way they'll go on Thursday".

-30-

For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices

Just as well to say "little change" this week

Numbers are showing little change in prices this week, albeit there is a small slide beginning to show in the numbers that correspond to the slide in oil prices so far this regulation period.

Here's what I have so far:

• Heating and stove oils show up by 1/10th of a cent.
• Diesel shows up by 7/10ths, and...
• Gasoline shows down by 7/10ths of a cent.

While refined commodity prices started high, continuing the trend set at the end of last week's price setting, they did start to recede against the numbers to average at almost a "break even" for the week so far.

What is the cause of this?

Seems that there was some inventory building last week, but the big news seems to be the slight easing of tensions in Egypt. Oil has been experiencing a slight retreat over the weekend on the news of the lessening of a possible interruption in the shipping of crude through the Suez Canal and the million barrel per day Cairo pipeline, both of which, if affected, could disrupt almost three per cent of world production.

We'll keep you posted on the final numbers to expect tomorrow night.

Regards,

George

Middle east turmoil plays into markets

Media release

Conception Bay South, NL, February 01, 2011- Consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador will see some effects from the political turmoil in the Middle East when the PUB adjusts prices this coming Thursday, but not as much effect as one would think. That comes from George Murphy, group researcher with the Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices.

Egypt situation plays heavy

"I think everyone has been watching the situation in Egypt develop in the news over the past week or so, and I'm no different, having watched it all unfold with a different reason: it's effect on oil prices. It has been interesting, none the less. And as word spreads in the Middle East of people trying to address the needed political changes in their respective countries and protests mount, there has been a marked increase in the price of oil as a result, but not the same effect on refined commodities, which for some, may be surprising," said Murphy. "Commodity prices have increased slightly, but a higher Canadian dollar has insulated us from exceptional increases in prices for the most part.

Egypt is a lightning rod for the whole Middle east, where almost forty per cent of the worlds oil comes from. There is a good chance that this upheaval will continue into other oil producing nations and that may well prove to be a harbinger of higher oil prices yet to come. Egyptian market worries are caused by the possibility of short term shipping and supply problems that come from a possibility of the closure of the Suez Canal and not directly linked to a shortage in production. If these mass protests hit countries like Iran or another OPEC producer nation for example, we could see run-away pricing. Prices may very well stay high as well because we simply don't know the ramifications of a change in government and what eff3ect it would have on peace in the Middle east. As much as the present government in Egypt may be hated, it did somewhat ensure a peace brokered between other Muslim nations and Israel, for example.

Oil prices could be entering a term of uncertainty.

The numbers for this week

"This week, I have heating and stove oils to increase by 1.73 cents per litre, diesel to increase by 1.7 cents a litre and gasoline to increase by just 7/10ths of a cent. US consumers have seem a 16 cent per gallon increase to heating, stove and diesel fuels and a 14 cent per gallon increase to gasoline prices in the last week since January 25th in comparison. While refined commodity prices have also increased, particularly distillate fuels, they remain under pressure from weakening consumer demand and higher inventories, in spite if the cold spell in the US northeast. These prices could be much higher than what we are seeing right now, except for the key word 'demand' playing into the refined commodity markets.

"There still is a huge concern over where heating and stove oil prices are heading however. Prices are close to the second highest reached, the highest being $1.24 a litre in the spring of 2008 when oil was working up to hit a record of $147 US a barrel by July, 2008. Heating fuels are again unaffordable for most at a critical juncture of the heating season when temperatures are at their coldest and there's a promise of more cold weather to come.

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For more information, contact;

George Murphy

Group researcher/Member

Consumer Group for Fair Gas Prices